Quigley’s Corner 08.08.16-Investment Grade Issuance – Not a “Sleepy Summer Monday”; $11bil Floated
Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap – “It’s Just Another Manic Massive Monday!”
Global Market Recap
IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points
CenterPoint Energy Deal Drill Down: A Case Study in Fortune Co. Diversity & Inclusion Goals
Ford Motor Credit Corp: Banking on the Little Engine That Can and Does
Mischler’s “Give Back” Component
New Issues Priced
Lipper Report/Fund Flows
IG Secondary Market Trade Lab
Economic Data Releases
Rates Trading Lab
Investment Grade Credit Spreads (by Rating/Issuer)
New Issue Pipeline
Last week it was the $19.75 b 7-part Microsoft deal, today it was a slew of issuers’ – 13 to be exact – who priced 19 tranches between them totaling $11.80b. UMS added a $2.75b two-part in the SSA space to bring the all-in IG day total to 14 issuers, 21 tranches $14.55bn. We have now priced 51% of this week’s syndicate midpoint average estimate for IG Corporates after just one session or $11.8b vs. $22.8b. What’s more is we priced just over 99% of the forecast for all of August or $60.75b vs. $61.13b.
But of all the deals that priced today, CenterPoint Energy Houston Electric, LLC and Ford Motor Credit Co. LLC are the deals of the day because Mischler Financial Group, Inc. was involved in both. Let’s take them in alphabetical order and start with CenterPoint Energy Houston Electric, LLC. But first here’s a look at the Global Recap –
Global Market Recap
- U.S. Treasuries – Mixed & little changed but a strong bounce off the morning low prices.
- Overseas Bonds – JGB’s sold off, Bunds basically unchanged & Gilts rallied (record low yields)
- 3mth Libor – First trade over 0.80% since 5/15/09 (0.80650%).
- Stocks – S&P’s & NASDAQ opened at all-time highs but rolled over.
- Overseas Stocks – Europe, Japan, Hong Kong & China rallied.
- Economic – Fed’s labor market conditions index was the strongest YTD.
- Europe – Weak data in China but stronger data in Japan & Germany.
- Currencies – U.S. better vs. PND/Yen, little changed vs. Euro/AUD & weaker vs. AUD.
- Commodities – Crude rallied because OPEC said so (wish everything was that easy!).
- CDX IG: +0.65 to 71.37
- CDX HY: -0.02 to 392.36
- CDX EM: -5.37 to 241.56
*CDX levels are as of the 3PM ET UST close.
IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points
- HCA Inc. upsized today’s 1srt Lien Senior Secured notes new issue to $1.2bn from $1bn.
- CubeSmart LP increased today’s 10-year Senior Unsecured Notes new issue to $300mm from $250mm at the launch and at the tightest side of guidance.
- The average spread compression from IPTs thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 19 IG Corporate new issue was 12.53 bps.
- BAML’s IG Master Index tightened 2 bps to +149 versus +151. +106 represents the post-Crisis low dating back to July 2007.
- Standard & Poor’s Global Fixed Income Research widened 12 bps to +191 versus +203. The +140 reached on July 30th 2014 represents the post-Crisis low.
- Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $12.6b on Friday versus $16.4b Thursday and $13.9b the previous Friday.
CenterPoint Energy Deal Drill Down
Firm market tone carried over from last week so today’s early back-drop pointed toward an unquestionable “go” on the morning call with the issuer, CenterPoint Energy Houston Electric, LLC. Dow futures pointed to a +25 opening with the IG index 1.25 bps tighter, a CT10-year at 1.587% and a nice pop for oil. Last week’s Dominion prints were 3 to 5 bps tighter and last Friday’s Southwestern Public Service 30-year was 1 bp tighter as well. The recommendation was clearly to go ahead with today’s new CNP 10-year GMBs.
Price evolution started with the announcement of a CenterPoint Energy Houston’s $300mm “will not grow” 10-year General Mortgage Bond new issue due 9/01/2026 with IPTs in the T+100 “area.” Additionally, on the “Go/No Go” call this morning, CFO Bill Rodgers announced that CNP had no interest in turning itself into a REIT which opened the doors for dozens of major institutional investors to fly into today’s deal. The spread level reeled in much tighter to T+85a guidance level with “area” defined as +/-2. The deal launched and priced at the tightest side of guidance or T+83.
Here’s a look at price compression from early morning initial price thoughts through guidance and the launch and final pricing of today’s deal.
|10yr||T+100a||+85a (+/-2)||+83||+83||<17> bps||<5>||80/78||<3>|
………and here’s a look at final book sizes and the oversubscription rate:
|CNP Issue||Tranche Size||Final Book
CenterPoint Energy Houston Fair Value Study
- In terms of relative value leads pointed to the outstanding CNP 30-year or the 4.50% due 4/01/2044 that was T+118 late Friday. A nice large block traded at that level late last Friday. With the 10s/30s curve worth 30 bps that lands fair value on today’s new 10-year at T+88 versus today’s T+83 final spread level for a negative 5 bps concession! Market tone has been really strong of late and the issuer was all over the leads and vice versa to capitalize on timing the transaction for this morning with the caveat that it be priced by 1:30 ahead of all the potential visitors to the session’s IG DCM. Syndicate desks all agreed this week’s calendar would be front-loaded. Sure enough CNP was the first deal to price today at 1:30. What’s more CFO Bill Rodgers announced on this morning’s “Go/No Go” call that CNP had decided not to pursue becoming a REIT. With that resolved and off the table, all CNP spreads reacted by tightening. It all made for a perfect environment in which to price CNP’s new 10-year GMB.
- Paper was framed in an 80/78 market after being freed to trade or 3 bps tighter on the bid side. Truly a phenomenal transaction.
This is what makes companies happy, Public Utility Commissions happy, rate payers happy – all while creating a more meaningful and value-added proposition for social responsibility. There’s only everything right and nothing wrong with that. Congrats all around.
CenterPoint Energy Houston Electric LLC – Final Pricing
CNP $300mm 2.40% due 9/01/2026 @ $99.884 to yield 2.413% or T+83. MW+15
Diversity & Inclusion at the Heart of CNP
Let me begin by saying this is NOT, repeat NOT a utility new issue deal review and D&I study for the sake of saying thank you. Rather this is a piece to illustrate what it is when a utility company, or any company for that matter in Corporate America does everything right in creating a formidable and lasting Diversity and Inclusion mandate. I’ll point the differences and add-ons that make today’s CenterPoint Energy Houston 10-year new issue another in a long list of issuers who are making a concerted effort to bring genuine differentiation to their D&I program versus others. It also serves to raise the bar for D&I in our IG dollar DCM for ALL issuers. That is the best way I can thank CNP for today’s opportunity in which Mischler was invited to demonstrate our capital markets capabilities, and on a larger scale, it is what this daily is meant for – to show time and time again the good things that corporate America is doing for social responsibility by creating unique diversity programs that start from the top down, permeating a company’s corporate DNA.
First I’d like to start way back when Bill “Buck” Rogers, a West Point grad was at American Water when my CEO, Dean Chamberlain and I visited him in Southern New Jersey. He had his entire Treasury/Funding team in a conference room. He shared stories of West Point and when he was a senior utility banker at Merrill Lynch. He said, “I like your newsletter. I think it’s very good. We’re thinking of embarking on our first D&I transaction and I want to do something different, something lasting, something meaningful. I want you to think if you were the CFO of this company why a D&I mandate is productive and useful? How is it additive? Why do we want new investors to our program? Why would a Public Service Commission care? What’s it say about the Company and who would you use and why? He then said, “I have my own ideas but I’d like you to tell us in your words!”
Well, I must say, that’s why I call a golden opportunity. I touched upon all his points and a few months later AWK issued its first D&I transaction. Lo and behold all the minority firms I recommended were vetted by the Company, among others and the four firms, including Mischler, served as Co-Managers. It was a tremendous success for AWK.
At this point you’re probably wondering to yourselves, “but today’s deal is CNP not AWK” what’s up with the guy-in-the-corner?” Well, for one thing Bill Rogers is now CFO at CenterPoint Energy. Among the first things he and his Treasury/Funding team tackled was to construct a landmark D&I initiative that resulted in an annual banker’s meeting in Houston that included not only their bulge bracket and loan lending institutional bankers but welcomed by invitation the best-in-class diversity broker dealers in the financial services industry. That, right there spoke volumes from the onset about what CNP was developing resulting in last January 16th’s first D&I new issue for CNP – a 5yr transaction and what continued today on today’s 10-year deal.
Much like Exelon’s breakthrough banker’s meeting back in the Fall of 2014, CNP’s presentation was perhaps the best organized I’ve been a part. I still have the CNP three-ring binder on my desk. In it is a comprehensive CenterPoint Energy Overview, Presentations, Financial Information, Recent Press Releases, all CenterPoint Contacts and Supplemental Materials. Fast forward to a few weeks ago when I received a call from CNP Treasury leadership – Carla Kniepp, Bob Mcrae and Brett Jerasa the Treasurer, Assistant Treasurer and Manager respectively to vet us as a potential member of their diversity rotation. Last Wednesday I received yet another communication from the triad asking me to put together a two slide presentation including an overall market update, sector update and credit opinion along with indicative pricing with comparables. Although the last two weeks have been phenomenally busy for Team Mischler, the offer and opportunity to be treated as a joint lead even though we served on today’s deal as an active Co-Manager, was something I relished. The ask actually meant the ultimate compliment and conveyed the value the issuer saw in our opinion and pricing methodology, daily debt capital markets coverage and distribution capabilities. Trust and respect are critical foundations to success. So, we got to work.
If the story segued from that point today’s relative value study, it would represent the quickest and most formidable diversity and inclusion initiative I’ve ever seen take place in our DCM. However, what makes the story even better is that it didn’t stop there. Rather I received this e-mail from the CNP Director of Corporate Finance, Brett Jerasa over this weekend:
In order to help your sales efforts on Monday, here is a brief overview of CenterPoint Energy Houston Electric’s credit thesis. This is the same messaging we use for Fixed Income investors and the Ratings Agencies. I’ve also attached the earnings press release from this morning.
Now, most lead lefts and underwriters know what Mischler does when it comes to distribution and so do many of America’s Fortune 250 companies. We pride ourselves on our gold nugget middle-market distribution network and placement opportunities, and I always write here that each and every one of them is a BlackRock to me. To be given talking points for our sales efforts ratchets up the proposition from our perspective. Note that Brett wrote, “it is the same messaging we use for Fixed Income investors and the ratings Agencies.” I wrote him back over the weekend and said, “Brett, I have to say this is a first, believe it or not. The credit thesis you attached is brilliant and very helpful. I will definitely use that in my marketing efforts……”Just another way to move the needle forward for D&I!”
Who gets our five-star salute? I’m proud to say Bill “Buck” Rogers, Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President; Carla Kniepp, Vice President and Treasurer; Bob Mcrae, Assistant Treasurer, Financing and Brett Jerasa, Manager, Treasury. Thank you all very much for today’s opportunity. You should not only feel good about today’s financing for your company and its shareholders, but equally so for what you’ve done today for social responsibility which best reflects those ratepayers – the people who turn on and off the light switches in Houston Texas. My hope is that today’s Lone Star State story spreads as fast as you helped inaugurate it within and outside of CNP. I’ve never quite seen anything like it before.
Next grateful appreciation once again for “all of those little BlackRock accounts” who have trusted in our mandate and our promise to get on deals and chip away at securing allocations for you. Thanks for the UST business you’ve expanded into with me, ABS and MBS business and Municipal bond business, and thanks for the equity trading you’ve executed and agency participations. You are touching every spoke within our special operations unit here. It takes all of us to bring about the best outcome: from onboarding MSDA and MAAUs five years ago when I first landed here; to introducing the platform to so many wonderful issuers; nurturing those relationships to get on their deals and adding business lines as our trajectory allows. From the core of you who followed me here and signed up based on our past experiences and then others added on as our DCM universe expanded and grew. Our efforts in DCM coverage have opened doors to ECM relationships and share buybacks allowing our equity experts to prove their muster as well. So from all of us here at team Mischler a resounding “thank you.”
Ford Motor Credit Co. LLC Believes in and Banks On The Little Engine That Could –
Thanks go out to FMCC’s David Lupu, Head of Global Debt Capital Markets for awarding the nation’s oldest SDVBE today’s Selling Group role on Ford’s $1b two-part 3-year FXD/FRN.
The deal announced with IPTs suggesting the +120 “area before guidance tightened a dime to +110 a +/-5 after which it launched and priced at the tightest side of guidance or T+105. Relative value pointed directly at the Ford 2.021% due 5/03/209 that were T+100 (G+103) nailing NIC on today’s new FXD/FRN at 2 bps vs. the +105 final pricing.
Order books were split as follows: $2.1b on the fixed rate tranche for a bid-to-cover rate of 3x and a $750mm FRN book or 2.5-times oversubscribed.
The fixed notes went out 3 bps tighter showing a +102 bid while the FRNs were 1bp improved with bids of 3mL+82.
We thank of course Dave Lupu of Ford, “the Golden ones” as I refer to them at GS Syndicate, who I was asked to liaise with, as well as a very good guy named Mr. Michael Shapiro at Societe Generale. SocGen served as B&D
Ford Motor Credit Co., LLC – Final Pricing
F $300mm FRNs due 8/12/2019 @ $100.00 or 3mL+83
F $700mm 1.897% due 8/12/2019 @ $100.00 to yield 1.897% or T+105
Mischler’s “Give Back” Component
Ours are not merely issuer meetings focused solely on renewables, green energy, spreads, the market and new investors rather they go beyond our latest company updates, add-ons and build-outs. You know what? That’s exactly how it can and should work folks! My CEO, Dean Chamberlain, a West Point graduate and Service Disabled Veteran himself – will be carrying around his metal shoulder for the rest of his life as a reminder of his service to our country – and he’s proud of it. So are we of him! During our meetings he’s right there to discuss market mechanics, the drill downs, our and out platform but when the question of honoring or helping United States Veterans comes up, meetings take on a whole new meaning. It’s something to witness. That “give back” component of Mischler Financial Group, Inc. is more than a feel good for those asking – it’s one of the many rewards for working here.
In 1994, Mischler Financial Group became the securities industry’s first, fully-certified Service Disabled Business Enterprise. Our original business plan envisioned our filling a void in the financial industry in connection with both mounting legislative initiatives (federal and state) and the increasing focus on the part of public plan sponsors and corporate issuers to broaden diversity and inclusion goals through the mandated inclusion of minority-owned service providers.
Since that time, and through the leadership and inspiration of both our Founder & Chairman Walter Mischler (SDV) a U.S Military Academy at West Point grad (Class of ’69) and CEO Dean Chamberlain (USMA Class of ’85), our firm has grown exponentially. We now employ approximately 50 financial industry professionals across five major-city offices and we provide aggressively-competitive capital markets services to a discerning institutional community that includes the country’s top Fortune corporations, the leading public plan sponsors and leading investment managers.
However much we’ve grown and benefited from the hard work of our team and the support and trust of those who we do business for and the contemporaries who we work with across the financial services arena, we have remained adamant about our firm’s unwavering dedication to “doing good by giving back” to the disabled military veteran community and their respective families.
Our support of the SDV community includes our taking a lead role in a broad variety of philanthropic programs, advocacy initiatives and mentoring of service-disabled military veterans who are determined to overcome all obstacles.
Since 1994, we have directly and indirectly raised hundreds of thousands of dollars for critical SDV support programs including, among others, The Fisher House Foundation, The Children of Fallen Patriots Foundation, Bob Woodruff Foundation, The Semper Fi Fund, Veterans Education Challenge, Lead the Way Fund and Wounded Warrior Project.
So, when we’re on your deals, we’ll do our best to serve you the right way and you’ll have our promise and commitment that some of those fees will go to one of these funds or others like them, to help those who were prepared to give or gave the ultimate sacrifice. That commitment is part of our shared ethos here at Team Mischler.
Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and August
|IG Corporate New Issuance||This Week
WTD – $11.80b
|August 2016||vs. Current
MTD – $60.75b
Have a great evening!
Below please find my synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary from today’s debt capital markets, including the investment grade corporate bond data drill down as seen from my seat here in Syndicate, Sales and DCM.
NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors and Sizes
…..and here’s another look at last week’s day-by-day re-cap of key primary market driver averages for IG Corporates only followed by the prior four week’s averages:
|KEY IG CORPORATE
NEW ISSUE DRIVERS
|New Issue Concessions||1.16 bps||2.08 bps||11.28 bps||<1> bps||N/A||3.17 bps||1.23 bps||3.95 bps||0.82 bps|
|Tenors||15.70 yrs||13.54 yrs||9.17 yrs||5.72 yrs||N/A||11.57 yrs||13.45 yrs||7.95 yrs||9.58 yrs|
New Issues Priced
Today’s recap of visitors to our IG dollar Corporate and SSA DCM:
For ratings I use the better two of Moody’s, S&P or Fitch.
|Air Lease Corporation||BBB-/A-||3.00%||9/15/2023||750||+low 200s (202.5)||+185a (+/-5)||+180||+180||BAML/CITI/JPM/MIZ|
|Ameriprise Financial Inc.||A3/A||2.875%||9/15/2026||500||+hi 130s (+137.5)||+130-135||+130||+130||CITI/JPM/WFS|
|Archer-Daniels-Midland Co.||A2/A||2.50%||8/11/2026||1,000||+110a||+98a (+/-3)||+95||+95||BNPP/HSBC|
|Berkshire Hathaway Finance||Aa2/AA||FRN||8/15/2019||250||3mL+equiv||3mL+equiv||3mL+26||3mL+26||BAML/GS/JPM/WFS|
|Berkshire Hathaway Finance||Aa2/AA||1.30%||8/15/2019||1,000||+60-65||+50a (+/-2)||+48||+43||BAML/GS/JPM/WFS|
|Berkshire Hathaway Inc.||Aa2/AA||FRN||8/15/2018||250||3mL+equiv||3mL+equiv||3mL+15||3mL+15||BAML/GS/JPM/WFS|
|Berkshire Hathaway Inc.||Aa2/AA||1.15%||8/15/2018||500||50-55||+45a (+/-2)||+43||+43||BAML/GS/JPM/WFS|
|Boston Properties LP||A-/BBB+||2.75%||10/01/2026||1,000||+140a||+125a (+/-2)||+125||+125||BAML/DB/JPM/MS/USB|
|CenterPoint Energy Houston||A1/A||2.40%||9/01/2026||300||+100a||+85a (+/-2)||+83||+83||BAML/DB/RBC|
|CubeSmart LP||Baa2/BBB||3.125%||9/01/2026||300||+hi 100s (+187.5)||+165a (+/-5)||+160||+160||BARC/JEFF/WFS|
|Ford Motor Credit Co. LLC||Baa2/BBB||FRN||8/12/2019||300||3mL+equiv||3mL+equiv||3mL+83||3mL+83||CITI/CA/GS/MS/SG/RBC|
|Ford Motor Credit Co. LLC||Baa2/BBB||1.897%||8/12/2019||700||+120a||+110a (+/-5)||+105||+105||CITI/CA/GS/MS/SG/RBC|
|ING Bank||A1/A+||1.65%||8/15/2019||450||+87.5a||+85a (+/-2)||+83||+83||CS/ING/JPM/MS/WFS|
|ING Bank||A1/A+||2.05%||8/15/2021||600||+hi 90s (+97.5)||+95a (+/-2)||+93||+93||CS/ING/JPM/MS/WFS|
|NXP BX/NXP Funding LLC||Ba2/BBB-||3.875%||8/31/2022||1,000||3.875%a||N/A||3.875%||3.875%||BAML/MS|
|United Mexican States||A3/BBB+||4.125%||1/21/2026||750||+165a||+150a (+/-5)||+145||+145||BAML/BBVA/CS|
|United Mexican States||A3/BBB+||4.35%||1/15/2047||2,000||+225a||+210a (+/-5)||+205||+205||BAML/BBVA/CS|
Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending August 3rd
- For the week ended August 3rd, Lipper U.S. Fund Flows reported an inflow of $2.472b into Corporate Investment Grade Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $23.27b) and a net outflow of $2.464b into High Yield Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $7.232b).
- Over the same period, Lipper reported a net inflow of $60.438m from Loan Participation Funds (2016 YTD net outflow of $5.328b).
- Emerging Market debt funds reported a net inflow of $613.318m (2016 YTD inflow of $4.330b).
Above is the opening extract from Quigley’s Corner aka “QC” Friday Aug 5 2016 Weekend Edition distributed via email to institutional investment managers and Fortune Treasury clients of Mischler Financial Group, the investment industry’s oldest and largest minority broker-dealer owned and operated by Service-Disabled Veterans.
Cited by Wall Street Letter in each of 2014, 2015 and 2016 for “Best Research / Broker-Dealer, the QC observations is one of three distinctive research content pieces produced by Mischler Financial Group. The QC is a daily synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary as seen from the perch of our fixed income trading and debt capital markets desk and includes a comprehensive “deep dive” with optics on the day’s investment grade corporate debt new issuance and secondary market data encompassing among other items, comparables, investment grade credit spreads, new issue activity, secondary market most active issues, and upcoming pipeline.
To receive Quigley’s Corner, please contact Ron Quigley, Managing Director and Head of Fixed Income Syndicate via email: firstname.lastname@example.org or via phone.
*Sources: Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, Bloomberg, Bond Radar, Dow Jones Newswire, IFR, Informa Global Markets, Internal Mischler, LCDNews, Market News International, Prospect News, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, Stone & McCarthy Research, Thomson Reuters and of course, a career of sources, contacts, movers and shakers from syndicate desks to accounts; from issuers to originators; from academicians to heads of research, and a host of financial journalists, et al.
Mischler Financial Group’s “U.S. Syndicate Closing Commentary” is produced weekly by Mischler Financial Group. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner without the permission of Mischler Financial Group. Although the statements of fact have been obtained from and are based upon sources Mischler Financial Group believes reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. Mischler Financial Group, its affiliates and their respective officers, directors, partners and employees, including persons involved in the preparation of this report, may from time to time maintain a long or short position in, or purchase or sell a position in, hold or act as market-makers or advisors or brokers in relation to the securities (or related securities, financial products, options, warrants, rights, or derivatives), of companies mentioned in this report or be represented on the board of such companies. Neither Mischler Financial Group nor any officer or employee of Mischler Financial Group or any affiliate thereof accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential damages or losses arising from any use of this report or its contents. “Mischler Financial” Group and the Mischler Financial Group
News and Information Categories
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