Fed NOT Raising Rates-Mischler Debt Market Comment
September 16, 2016   //   by Mischler MarCom   //   Debt Market Commentary  

Quigley’s Corner 09.15.16 Fed Not Raising Rates

 

Investment Grade Corporate Debt New Issue Re-Cap – IG Lotto:Corporate Volume Tops Weekly Syndicate Estimates

 Global Market Recap

All You Need to Know About Today’s Bank of England Meeting

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

Fixed Income Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for September

New Issues Priced

Lipper Report/Fund Flows

IG Corporate Spreads (by Rating/Industry)

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

 

Today’s winning lotto numbers are 11-16-945 as in 11 IG Corporate issuers, priced 16 tranches totaling $9.45b.  With that amount we have officially broken through this week’s syndicate midpoint average forecasts by over 7% or $39.745b vs. $36.91b. Notable today was that 4 issuers upsized their transactions from initial morning announcement sizes.

Remember what I wrote this past Monday folks (Check your “QC” dated 9/12/2016.  – “Look folks, the Fed is not raising rates this year.  Many sight December as the next hike but it’s not happening.” The world can barely stand on two feet let alone get economic engines back to growth mode.  Today’s numbers confirm that. With that, read my lips, or read my commentary, but the take-away is the same: Fed NOT Raising Rates (at least not anytime soon, nor with any degree of significance that would upend the current global financial market environment).

Global Market Recap

 

  • S. Treasuries – USTs closed mixed with steeper curve. 5/30’s has steepened 10 days in a row.
  • 3mth Libor – Set at its highest yield (0.85656%) since May 2009.
  • Stocks – US stocks with a strong rally. FTSE leads Europe higher. Nikkei had a bad day.
  • Economic – Very disappointing day on the U.S. economic front.
  • Currencies – USD mixed & little changed vs. Euro & PND but lost ground vs. Yen/CAD/AUD.
  • Commodities – Crude eked out a gain, heating oil higher & gold lost ground.
  • CDX IG: -3.0 to 74.31
  • CDX HY: -11.76 to 405.92
  • CDX EM: -5.58 to 255.94

*CDX levels are as of 3:30PM ET today.

-Tony Farren

 

All You Need to Know About Today’s Bank of England Meeting

 

  • BOE Sees chance of another rate cut this year but holds today at 0.25%; Vote 9-0.
  • BOE keeps gilt purchase plan at £435b; Vote 9-0.
  • Holds corporate bond plan at £10b; Vote 9-0.
  • Monetary Policy Committee Majority expect rate cut “if” August outlook is confirmed.
  • Initial impact of August stimulus is “encouraging.”
  • Some near-term indicators are “better than expected.”
  • Inflation reaching 2% target in first half of 2017.
  • Lower bound is close to but a bit above, zero.
  • Second half slowdown may be less severe than previously forecast.
  • Cannot infer from near-term about 2017 or 2018 projections.
  • MPC view of “contours of economic outlook” are unchanged.
  • Hawkish BOE members Forbes, McCafferty say extra gilt purchases still not warranted.

 

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

 

  • Kite Realty Group LP upsized today’s 10-year Senior Notes new issue to $300mm from $250mm at the launch and at the tightest side of guidance.
  • CCL Industries Inc. increased today’s 10-year Senior Notes new issue to $500mm from $400mm at the launch and at the tightest side of guidance.
  • Dairy Farmers of America Inc. bumped up its new $1,000 par PerpNC10 cumulative preferred securities, Series “C” new issue to $150mm from $100mm at the launch and at the tightest side of guidance.
  • Pitney Bowes Inc. boosted its 5-year Senior Notes new issue to $600mm from $400mm at the launch.
  • The average spread compression from IPTs thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 16 IG Corporate-only new issues was 23.34 bps.
  • BAML’s IG Master Index widened 1 bp to +143 versus +142.  +106 represents the post-Crisis low dating back to July 2007.
  • Standard & Poor’s Global Fixed Income Research was unchanged at +191.  The +140 reached on July 30th 2014 represents the post-Crisis low.
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $17b on Wednesday versus $15.8b Tuesday and $16.5b the previous Wednesday.
  • The 10-DMA stands at $14b.

Above is the opening extract from Quigley’s Corner aka “QC”  Thursday Sept 15 2016 distributed via email to institutional investment managers and Fortune Treasury clients of Mischler Financial Group, the investment industry’s oldest and largest minority broker-dealer owned and operated by Service-Disabled Veterans.

Cited by Wall Street Letter in each of 2014, 2015 and 2016 for “Best Research / Broker-Dealer, the QC observations is one of three distinctive research content pieces produced by Mischler Financial Group. The QC is a daily synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary as seen from the perch of our fixed income trading and debt capital markets desk and includes a comprehensive “deep dive” with optics on the day’s investment grade corporate debt new issuance and secondary market data encompassing among other items, comparables, investment grade credit spreads, new issue activity, secondary market most active issues, and upcoming pipeline.

To receive Quigley’s Corner, please contact Ron Quigley, Managing Director and Head of Fixed Income Syndicate via email: rquigley@mischlerfinancial.com or via phone.

*Sources: Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, Bloomberg, Bond Radar, Dow Jones Newswire, IFR, Informa Global Markets, Internal Mischler, LCDNews, Market News International, Prospect News, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, S, Thomson Reuters and of course, a career of sources, contacts, movers and shakers from syndicate desks to accounts; from issuers to originators; from academicians to heads of research, and a host of financial journalists, et al.

Mischler Financial Group’s “U.S. Syndicate Closing Commentary”  is produced weekly by Mischler Financial Group. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner without the permission of Mischler Financial Group. Although the statements of fact have been obtained from and are based upon sources Mischler Financial Group believes reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete.  All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to change without notice.  This report is for informational purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security.   Mischler Financial Group, its affiliates and their respective officers, directors, partners and employees, including persons involved in the preparation of this report, may from time to time maintain a long or short position in, or purchase or sell a position in, hold or act as market-makers or advisors or brokers in relation to the securities (or related securities, financial products, options, warrants, rights, or derivatives), of companies mentioned in this report or be represented on the board of such companies. Neither Mischler Financial Group nor any officer or employee of Mischler Financial Group or any affiliate thereof accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential damages or losses arising from any use of this report or its contents.  “Mischler Financial” Group and the Mischler Financial Group. Article “Fed Not Raising Rates”