In Advance of Fed and BoJ Comments, Corporate Debt Issuers Sidelined
September 21, 2016   //   by Mischler MarCom   //   Debt Market Commentary  

Quigley’s Corner 09.21.16 No Prints and No Rate Increases; Corporate Debt Issuers Sit it Out

 

Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap 

A Big Red Zero – Land of the Rising “None” as BoJ Keeps Rates at <0.1%> & Introduces More Shifts to Policy

“Fed” Up with Rates, FOMC Holds; November Increase Has No Chance Pre- Election and Santa Claus is Coming to Town…with Coal?

All You Want and Need to Know About Today’s Fed Decision

In Janet’s Words

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors and Sizes

New Issues Priced

New Issue Volume

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending September 14th

Investment Grade Corporate Spreads (by Rating/Industry)

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

Tomorrow’s Calendar

 

It was a no print day today as corporate debt issuers respected both the impact of the BoJ and FOMC.

dewey moment mischler debt market Not so fast my friends…..not so fast!  It’s not exactly a “Dewey Defeats Truman” moment. Still, let’s call it like it is folks – I did say “the next best thing to having tomorrow’s newspaper today is the ‘QC’”.  Then on Monday, September 19th and alluding to today’s BoJ and FOMC rate decisions, I wrote, “Fed Holds; BoJ Cuts Rate and Then Some.” Well, I guess it’s not “tomorrow’s newspaper today” but I still think it’s the “next best thing to it.” The Fed Held, the BoJ introduced new fringy though convoluted easing details (“and then some”) but the BoJ kept rates unchanged.  Two out of three isn’t bad, but that’s why it’s “the next best thing.” If I played baseball, I’d be in the Hall of Fame with a .666 average.  Joking aside, a Fed that infers raising rates by December should have hiked rates today, but they didn’t. This is more of the same readers.  Look for Fed members – both voting and non-voting – to continue giving speeches and appearing on television to opine about the rate flux that has restricted so many from doing so much.  The street is the leader; the Fed is the ultimate laggard.  It’s how it is.  Today was more of the same. No surprise at all.  The government should consider issuing a gag order on any and all Fed-speak in between meetings for all members, both voting and non-voting.  They only confuse the situation and shock markets.

First up, let’s look at what the BoJ did while we were in REM sleep this morning:

A Big Red Zero – Land of the Rising “None” as BoJ Keeps Rates at <0.1%> & Introduces More Shifts to PolicyBoJ Mischler Debt Market Comment

Central Banks from the FOMC to the BOE and from the ECB to the BoJ all seem to be pointing to the downside risks to continued rate cuts while at the same time highlighting that monetary policy needs to be substantially accommodative while calling on governments to share more of the economic burdens. Here’s what’s clear: growth is anemic to non-existent, inflation unchanged to nowhere, accommodative policies are manifesting themselves in new policy twists and turns and big government needs to get more involved.  Hmmm…..sounds like things aren’t quite working out, eh?

 

Here are the talking points from this morning’s BoJ announcement:

 

o   The BoJ left interest rates at its still record low <0.1%>.

o   Committed to intervene until inflation reaches 2% and remains stable above that level.

o   Will cap 10-year yields at 0.00% by continuing to buy 10yr JGBs implying that the BoJ must continue intervening to prevent borrowing costs from rising and to ensure that it can borrow for a decade for free.

o   Changed its policy from a focus on a base money target to controlling the yield curve.

o   Pledged to maintain its government bond-buying in line with ¥80 trillion annually while buying fewer long-dated maturities hoping to pump up long-term interest rates thereby helping banks boost profits. There was no expansion of its current quantitative easing program.

 

Will this new approach be effective?  Only time will tell.  It certainly is a shift in monetary policy to control the yield curve. It is NOT a bazooka by any stretch and more like “fiddling around the edges.”  As for the 2.00% target? Folks, we all know that’s a loooong way off. Market participants have a lot of questions with many sharing that the “BoJ should’ve just cut rates again.” Equity markets loved the news. The DOW closed up 163, the S&P was in the black 23, the VIX compressed over 2.5 and CDX27 tightened 3.2 bps.

“Fed” Up with Rates, FOMC Holds; November Increase Has No Chance Pre- Election and Santa Claus is Coming to Town…with Coal?

The Fed held rates albeit the subsequent press conference was more optimistic, if one can call it that, saying the economy appeared “slightly balanced” and “the case for an increase in the fed funds rate strengthened but decided, for the time being to wait for further evidence of continued progress toward its objectives.”  You all know about the myriad global event risk factors out there.  There are so many that on any given day in our inextricably global-linked world economy, should one or several of them get worse, which is entirely plausible-to-likely, the Fed can skirt around a hike by once again pointing to global events, as they have in the past, to justify standing down.  In fact, in its statement Chair Yellen said, “we will closely monitor inflation and global developments.” What’s more, the next FOMC meeting will be held on November 1srt and 2nd and is not associated with a Summary of Economic Projections or a press conference by Yellen. It is highly unlikely that the Fed raises rates in November given that the meeting will take places 6 days before one our nation’s most tumultuous and raucous elections.  Last year saw one rate hike to close out 2015 at its December meeting.  Santa Claus will be coming to town early at the year’s last meeting of 2016 held December 13th-14th …………..but don’t be surprised to find coal in the stocking.

Folks, Q3 is about over.  You hear that sound?   That’s the sound of trucks?  They’re backing up to print between now and Election Day – BIG TIME. 12 IG issuers are in the pipeline with a whole lot of M&A deals getting closer.

Here’s All You Want and Need to Know About Today’s Fed Decision

o   The FOMC kept rates unchanged as three officials dissent for a hike.

o   George, Mester, Rosengren dissented in favor of a hike.

o   Case for rate hike strengthened as forecast shows a 2016 increase.

o   Fed “decided to wait for the time being for additional evidence.”

o   Reiterates they expect the economy to “warrant only gradual hikes.”

o   FOMC repeats it will closely monitor inflation and global developments.

o   Job market continued to strengthen and economy picked up.

o   Says “job gains are solid and household spending is growing strongly.”

o   Market-based measures of inflation remain low.

o   Sees inflation rising to 2% over the medium term.

o   Business fixed investments has remained soft.

o   Near-term risks to its outlook “appear roughly balanced.”

o   Maintains its reinvestment policy.

 

In Janet’s Words

o   “FOMC policy should help economy move toward goals.”

o   “Economic growth appears to have picked up.”

o   “Economy to expand at moderate pace in next few years.”

o   “Pace of job gains above rate needed for new entrants.”

o   “Unemployment measures show more people seeking jobs.”

o   “PCE inflation still short of 2% objective.”

o   “Can’t take inflation expectations stability for granted.”

o   “Don’t want to overshoot inflation goal significantly.”

o   “We chose to wait for more evidence of progress.”

o   “On current course, some gradual hikes will be warranted.”

o   “There appears little risk of falling behind curve.”

o   “We’re generally pleased with how U.S. economy is doing.”

o   “Seeing evidence economy is expanding more strongly.”

o   “We’re not seeing pressures suggesting overheating.”

o   “Economy has a little more room to run than thought.”

o   “Zero lower bound is a concern.”

o   “My colleagues and I discussed timing of next rate hike.”

o   “Most of us judged it sensible to wait for more evidence.”

o   “Monetary policy is somewhat accommodative.”

o   “Should be concerned about risks from reach for yield.”

o   “Most of my colleagues agree with my Jackson Hole remark.”

o   “Of course we’re worried bubbles could form.”

o   “Soundness of banking system has improved substantially.”

o   “Less disagreement on FOMC than you might think.”

o   “Important to have a range of views expressed on the FOMC.”

o   “We don’t discuss politics at our meetings.”

 

Global Market Recap

 

o   FOMC – Unchanged as expected but there were 3 dissenters. Dots were dovish (again).

o   BOJ – Main policy target is the yield curve from the monetary base (rates unchanged).

o   U.S. Treasuries – Closed mixed & flatter. USTs traded better after the FOMC/Yellen.

o   Overseas Bonds – Europe was unchanged to red & steeper. JGB’s was all red & flatter.

o   Stocks – Strong session for U.S.

o   Overseas Stocks – Europe closed higher. Nikkei rallied & China small gains.

o   Economic – Nothing of note in the U.S. Data in Japan was weak.

o   Currencies – USD lost ground vs. all of the Big 5. The Yen was very strong.

o   Commodities – CRB, crude oil, gold & silver were all well bid.

o   CDX IG: -3.25 to 78.44

o   CDX HY: -18.52 to 391.26

o   CDX EM: -12.30 to 230.74

*CDX levels are as of 3:30PM ET today.

-Tony Farren

 

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

 

  • BAML’s IG Master Index was unchanged at +142.  +106 represents the post-Crisis low dating back to July 2007.
  • Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS tightened 1 bp to +139 versus +140.  The “LUACOAS” wide since 2012 is +215. The tight is +135.
  • Standard & Poor’s Global Fixed Income Research was unchanged at +190.  The +140 reached on July 30th 2014 represents the post-Crisis low.
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $19.1b on Tuesday versus $12b Monday and $15.8b the previous Monday.
  • The 10-DMA stands at $15.4b.

 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and September

 

IG Corporate New Issuance This Week
9/19-9/23
vs. Current
WTD – $20.963b
September 2016 vs. Current
MTD – $113.168b
Low-End Avg. $29.09b 72.06% $115.45b 98.02%
Midpoint Avg. $30.28b 69.23% $116.02b 97.54%
High-End Avg. $31.48b 66.59% $116.59b 97.06%
The Low $20b 104.81% $80b 141.46%
The High $40b 52.41% $150b 75.45%

 

Below please find my synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary from today’s debt capital markets, including the investment grade corporate bond data drill down as seen from my seat here in Syndicate, Sales and DCM.

 

Have a great evening!
Ron Quigley, Managing Director/Head of Fixed Income Syndicate

Above is the opening extract from Quigley’s Corner aka “QC”  Wednesday Sept 21 2016 distributed via email to institutional investment managers and Fortune Treasury clients of Mischler Financial Group, the investment industry’s oldest and largest minority broker-dealer owned and operated by Service-Disabled Veterans.

Cited by Wall Street Letter in each of 2014, 2015 and 2016 for “Best Research / Broker-Dealer, the QC observations is one of three distinctive research content pieces produced by Mischler Financial Group. The QC is a daily synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary as seen from the perch of our fixed income trading and debt capital markets desk and includes a comprehensive “deep dive” with optics on the day’s investment grade corporate debt new issuance and secondary market data encompassing among other items, comparables, investment grade credit spreads, new issue activity, secondary market most active issues, and upcoming pipeline.

To receive Quigley’s Corner, please contact Ron Quigley, Managing Director and Head of Fixed Income Syndicate via email: rquigley@mischlerfinancial.com or via phone.

*Sources: Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, Bloomberg, Bond Radar, Dow Jones Newswire, IFR, Informa Global Markets, Internal Mischler, LCDNews, Market News International, Prospect News, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, S, Thomson Reuters and of course, a career of sources, contacts, movers and shakers from syndicate desks to accounts; from issuers to originators; from academicians to heads of research, and a host of financial journalists, et al.

Mischler Financial Group’s “U.S. Syndicate Closing Commentary”  is produced weekly by Mischler Financial Group. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner without the permission of Mischler Financial Group. Although the statements of fact have been obtained from and are based upon sources Mischler Financial Group believes reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete.  All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to change without notice.  This report is for informational purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security.   Mischler Financial Group, its affiliates and their respective officers, directors, partners and employees, including persons involved in the preparation of this report, may from time to time maintain a long or short position in, or purchase or sell a position in, hold or act as market-makers or advisors or brokers in relation to the securities (or related securities, financial products, options, warrants, rights, or derivatives), of companies mentioned in this report or be represented on the board of such companies. Neither Mischler Financial Group nor any officer or employee of Mischler Financial Group or any affiliate thereof accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential damages or losses arising from any use of this report or its contents.  “Mischler Financial” Group and the Mischler Financial Group. Article It was a no print day today as corporate debt issuers respected both the impact of the BoJ and FOMC.