Three’s A Crowd; Durable Goods and Debt Capital Markets-Mischler Comment
September 28, 2016   //   by Mischler MarCom   //   Debt Market Commentary  

Quigley’s Corner 09.27.16 Durable Goods and Debt Capital Market Issuance

Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap – Three’s a Crowd

Tomorrow’s Durable Goods Number Should Result in Issuance and Here’s Why:

Global Market Recap

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

Presidential Debate Ratings Set New Records

New Issues Priced

Indexes and New Issue Volume

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending September 21th

Investment Grade Credit Spreads (by Rating/Industry)

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline

Rates Trading Lab

Tomorrow’s Calendar

 

Lehigh University stood alone owning today’s IG Corporate calendar with its $150mm 30-year 3(a)4exempt taxable bond, Series 2016 new issue. The reason?  Big problems in Europe.  Three issuers stood down this morning across the pond and ECB President Mario Draghi spoke of a pervasive sense of urgency in the EU in which he urged governments to “act to stem rising public discontent” adding, “they must show that the Union brings tangible benefits to people’s lives.”  (Oh Really????)  He continued with “the ECB cannot sustain the European recovery alone.” (Duh!!!!)  This, after how many years of applying a kick-the-can mentality that segued to helicopter money and a gung ho “whatever it takes the ECB, we’ll do it” attitude.  This is a change of coarse and invites a serious discussion once again about the viability and sustainability of the European Union. Further compounding continental concerns, Deutsche Bank continued as a primary focus and lynchpin to the entire European banking system.  One FIG and one industrial also stood down in the U.S. IG primary markets as well – that I am aware of.

So, when markets are somewhat volatile, as September has been despite $137b IG Corporate and $158b all-in IG, I tend to turn to “go to” contacts for a more detailed discourse.  In other words, those I’ve known forever and who have withstood the test of time.  Believe it or not there aren’t many of THEM around.  They do likewise.  I gave a ring to my favorite Scotsman Mr. Paul Cohen who during his years as a banker at Banque Paribas, BNP Paribas and Dresdner essentially covered most all corporates including some fallen angels.  Besides being an all-around very good guy, he knows his stuff and is a great person for you to reach out to have him add you to his daily disty list.  Paul is a primary market strategist who writes for Bloomberg London covering IG Euro new issuance.  In our inextricably global-linked world economy that I always write about here, minding your dollars and euros makes sense (cents!) Ask him to put you on his loop and please do tell him that the guy-in-the-corner sent you. All free and all informative for each one of YOU! Remember folks, it’s all about timely, accurate information and how you apply it that keeps you on top of your game while better understanding our markets!  So, go ahead and reach out to him.

The Three Musketeers; The Three Little Pigs; The Three Billy Goats Gruff!  Does the power of three really makes things better?  Funnier? Paul and discussed the theory of “threes” this afternoon…….the three deals that stood down that is.  Paul said, “three deals were pulled within 24 hours across the pond as market conditions changed since last week with issuers perhaps needing to be a bit more flexible in terms of their cost of funding expectations.”  He continued………”a flight-to-quality could be in the cards over the next day or two as the market digests the implications of theses pulled transactions beginning with Lufthansa, followed by NordLB and finally Korean Air.” Now, here’s the good part that cuts through the headline –  Lufthansa is a split-rated credit and perceived by many market participants to fall into the lower ratings category due to investment guidelines that typically err on the side of caution while also satisfying the ECB’s CSPP criteria by maintaining one investment grade rating.  NordLB does harbor its own particular “situation” with its shipping business and acquisition of Bremer LB.  Lastly, the Korean Air Lines pull was the result of contagion from Lufthansa.

So, at first blush, market players came in this morning hearing “3 deals were pulled in Europe…..OMG!”  Knowing the smart minds out there and having access to them with a bit of Quig-Pro-Quo thrown in for good measure, reveals a bit more story, a bit more color and a bit more understanding that’s not nearly as frightful as the words Mario Draghi uttered today or that the market is conjecturing as surrounds Deutsche Bank.  Just a helpful tip for you! And a thank you to Paul “Pablo” Cohen.

Tomorrow’s Durable Goods Number Should Result in Issuance and Here’s Why:

 

durable goods reportOn the home front, IG corporates clearly took a breather today which is a good thing.  We have a Durable Goods Orders number out at 8:30am tomorrow morning which is relatively important given recent volatility so, I suspect that number hits first after which if it’s pretty much as expected or <1.5%> we’ll see issuance. The prior number was 4.4% so perhaps it surprises to the upside.  2 out of 3 is 66% so I’ll say I don’t expect it to miss.  Wrightson, for example is generally an outlier but they also happened to be pretty good. They conjecture that tomorrow’s August Durable Goods report will be 1.5% to the upside – a nice swing versus negative expectations.  The reason?  Boeing’s August orders will translate into a 24% increase in civilian aircraft orders in seasonally adjusted terms which will make up for softness elsewhere.  Just putting it out there folks.

 

Global Market Recap

 

o   U.S. Treasuries: 30yr leads UST rally. Bunds & Gilts improved. JGB curve much steeper.

o   Stocks – Bounce back day for U.S. stocks. Europe closed down & Asia rallied.

o   Economic – U.S. consumer confidence stole the show. The strongest since 2007.

o   Overseas economic – China’s industrial profits increased the most in 3 years.

o   Currencies – U.S. outperformed the Euro but lost ground vs. the PND, Yen, CAD & AUD.

o   Commodities – CRB, crude oil, heating oil, gold, copper & silver all down.

o   CDX IG: -1.06 to 78.05

o   CDX HY: +19.57 to 415.59

o   CDX EM: -0.03 to 238.58

*CDX levels are as of 3:30PM ET today.

-Tony Farren

 

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

 

  • The average spread compression from IPTs thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 1 IG Corporate-only new issue was 10.00 bps.
  • BAML’s IG Master Index widened 1 bp to +142 versus +141.  +106 represents the post-Crisis low dating back to July 2007.
  • Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS widened 1 bp to +138 versus +137.  The “LUACOAS” wide since 2012 is +215. The tight is +135.
  • Standard & Poor’s Global Fixed Income Research widened 1 bp to +190 versus +189.  The +140 reached on July 30th 2014 represents the post-Crisis low.
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $12.8b on Monday versus $13.3b Friday and $12b the previous Monday.
  • The 10-DMA stands at $15.5b.

 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and September

 

IG Corporate New Issuance This Week
9/26-9/30
vs. Current
WTD – $5.75b
September 2016 vs. Current
MTD – $136.518b
Low-End Avg. $22.13b 25.98% $115.45b 118.25%
Midpoint Avg. $23.30b 24.68% $116.02b 117.67%
High-End Avg. $24.48b 22.49% $116.59b 117.09%
The Low $15b 38.33% $80b 170.65%
The High $36b 15.97% $150b 91.01%

 

Presidential Debate Ratings Set New Records

Yesterday, I wrote the following about last evening’s first Presidential debate between Clinton and Trump, “You can watch it on virtually any major broadcast and/or cable news network as all of them will be televising this one.  It WILL break all Presidential debate records by a LOT.” Well, the results are in.  More than 46 million people watched the debate across six broadcast networks according to preliminary Nielsen data released by Univision.  CNN published its own data confirming, along with virtually all media outlets. That’s a new record and 7.7% more than the 42.7mm viewers who watched the first Obama-Romney debate in 2012 on those same six channels.

Including cable news network ratings, the debate audience soared to 83 million viewers officially becoming the most-watched Presidential debate in history breaking the 80.6 million who watched Jimmy Carter debate Ronald Reagan back in 1980.

Yet another good reason for you to stay tuned into the daily “QC.”

Have a great evening!
Ron Quigley, Managing Director / Head of  Fixed Income Syndicate

 

Below please find my synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary from today’s debt capital markets, including the investment grade corporate bond data drill down as seen from my seat here in Syndicate, Sales and DCM.

Above is the opening extract from Quigley’s Corner aka “QC”  Tuesday Sept 27 2016 distributed via email to institutional investment managers and Fortune Treasury clients of Mischler Financial Group, the investment industry’s oldest and largest minority broker-dealer owned and operated by Service-Disabled Veterans.

Cited by Wall Street Letter in each of 2014, 2015 and 2016 for “Best Research / Broker-Dealer, the QC observations is one of three distinctive research content pieces produced by Mischler Financial Group. The QC is a daily synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary as seen from the perch of our fixed income trading and debt capital markets desk and includes a comprehensive “deep dive” with optics on the day’s investment grade corporate debt new issuance and secondary market data encompassing among other items, comparables, investment grade credit spreads, new issue activity, secondary market most active issues, and upcoming pipeline.

To receive Quigley’s Corner, please contact Ron Quigley, Managing Director and Head of Fixed Income Syndicate via email: rquigley@mischlerfinancial.com or via phone.

*Sources: Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, Bloomberg, Bond Radar, Dow Jones Newswire, IFR, Informa Global Markets, Internal Mischler, LCDNews, Market News International, Prospect News, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, S, Thomson Reuters and of course, a career of sources, contacts, movers and shakers from syndicate desks to accounts; from issuers to originators; from academicians to heads of research, and a host of financial journalists, et al.

Mischler Financial Group’s “U.S. Syndicate Closing Commentary”  is produced weekly by Mischler Financial Group. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner without the permission of Mischler Financial Group. Although the statements of fact have been obtained from and are based upon sources Mischler Financial Group believes reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete.  All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to change without notice.  This report is for informational purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security.   Mischler Financial Group, its affiliates and their respective officers, directors, partners and employees, including persons involved in the preparation of this report, may from time to time maintain a long or short position in, or purchase or sell a position in, hold or act as market-makers or advisors or brokers in relation to the securities (or related securities, financial products, options, warrants, rights, or derivatives), of companies mentioned in this report or be represented on the board of such companies. Neither Mischler Financial Group nor any officer or employee of Mischler Financial Group or any affiliate thereof accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential damages or losses arising from any use of this report or its contents.  “Mischler Financial” Group and the Mischler Financial Group. Article It was a no print day today as corporate debt issuers respected both the impact of the BoJ and FOMC. The Circus Comes To Town (Hempstead, NY) -Mischler Debt Market Comment