America Has Spoken. What’s Next re USD and IG Corporate Debt?
November 9, 2016   //   by Mischler MarCom   //   Debt Market Commentary  

Quigley’s Corner 11.09.16- It’s Done. America Voted for a New US President. What’s Next re USD and IG Corporate Debt Market?

 

How It Happened Across the U.S.A.
Dr. Scott MacDonald Writes a Piece for the  “QC”

Smith’s Research and Gradings – The Global Economic Doctor on the Election of 2016 and its Implications

Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap 

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and November

Indexes and New Issue Volume

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending November 2nd  

Investment Grade Credit Spreads (by Rating/Industry)

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

Tomorrow’s Calendar

One of the great things about being in this business for 26 years are the superlative friends and colleagues I have had the privilege to know and work with during that time. There’s a saying that you are as good as the people around you.  I have been blessed with stellar talent and thought leaders throughout my career. One such person is Dr. Scott MacDonald, who I have occasionally quoted here in the “QC.” Scott B. MacDonald or as I’ve always referred to him as simply “The Doctor”, is Chief Economist at Smith’s Research & Gradings.  Prior to his current post, he was Senior Managing Director and Chief Economist at KWR International, Inc.  Prior to that was Head of Research for MC Asset Management LLC, an asset management unit of Mitsubishi Corporation based in Stamford, Connecticut (2012-2015) and Head of Credit & Economics Research at Aladdin Capital (2000-2011) where he and I worked closely together.  He served as Chief Economist for KWR International (1999-2000) prior to which he worked at Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette, Credit Suisse and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (in Washington, D.C.).  He was ranked by Institutional Investor magazine as one of the top sovereign analysts in the financial services industry.

Scott did his Ph.D. in Political Science at the University of Connecticut, Masters in Asian Studies at the University of London’s School of Oriental and African Studies, and BA in History (Honors) and Political Science at Trinity College (Hartford). He has written 18 books and has had numerous articles published. His areas of expertise are macroeconomics, international finance and geopolitical risk.

I am privileged and honored to present “The Doctor’s” piece on President-elect Donald Trump’s Election Day victory that was penned today and appears here in the “QC”.

mischler-post-election-debt-market-comment-110816

 

Smith’s Research and Gradings – The Global Economic Doctor on the Election of 2016 and its Implications

 

The U.S. presidential election of 2016 was decidedly one for the history books.  Although 2016 is certainly not 1860, which led to the U.S. Civil War, it was a dirty, brutal and personalized campaign that tapped into the angst of a voting public angry with widening socio-economic disparities, sub-par economic growth and a dysfunctional Washington.

Why did Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, win?

  1. Public frustration with Washington’s corruption and its seeming ineffectiveness in addressing the country’s major problems.  Clinton was clearly seen as more of a Washington insider than Trump, who has never held an elected political office before.
  1. The ongoing whiff of corruption that surrounded Democratic contender Hillary Clinton (not that Trump is a saint), related to her emails and the finances of the Clinton Foundation. Past Clinton “scandals” did not help.
  1. The intervention of the FBI and WikiLeaks into the electoral process via disclosing embarrassing emails, which only maintained attention of Clinton’s email scandal. Furthermore, having her name associated with former Congressman Anthony Weiner (with his sexting scandal) obviously did not help Clinton in the last days of the campaign.
  1. The growing divisions in U.S. society, especially along an urban-rural divide. One thing that gave Trump an appeal to many living in rural areas was that he appeared to listen to them and mocked the political correctness that many found stifling.  
  1. The Democrats underestimated Trump. As General Colin Powell stated: “No battle plan survives contact with the enemy.”  This was certainly the case of Clinton with Trump.
  1. The appeal of a strongman leader. The last reflects a major paradigm change in global politics – the rise of strongman leaders, who offer simple solutions to complex problems. Considering the scope of U.S. problems and the challenging nature of international relations, Trump’s “tough guy” persona was a point of attraction to some voters. There are certainly echoes of this in other countries.

What next?  A Trump victory was not expected by global markets or political leaders in many other countries (many of whom have been critical of the Republican leader now president-elect).  The next week is likely to see an unwinding of the “Clinton trade” (risk on) in global debt and equity markets, downward pressure on oil prices, and a further pounding of the Mexican peso.

Investors find a Trump victory unsettling from the standpoint that during the campaign he was anti-trade, opened up the possibility of negotiating the U.S. debt, and wants to overhaul of the U.S. alliance system around the world (such as with NATO). The last time the U.S. embraced protectionist trade policies in a major fashion was the 1930s, in the form of the Smoot-Hawley Tariffs. U.S. protectionism was a major cause of the deepening of the global Depression. The extent of the market downdraft will depend on Trump’s acceptance speech, his comments on policy matters before he gets into the White House and who he appoints to his cabinet.

The major challenge in the days ahead will be to find a way to reunite the country after the election.  In many regards, this may be an impossible process, considering the bad blood between Democrats and Republicans since 2008.  A dangerous development in U.S. politics is the destruction of the political center – the area where compromise and dialogue are reached and policies can move forward.

The U.S. sovereign ratings are Aaa/AA+/AAA, with a stable outlook.  The policy format of the incoming Trump administration will no doubt be carefully examined, in particular on its debt management and trade policies.

For American politics to become more workable, President Trump will have to demonstrate an ability to lead, but also work within a constitutional system that he might find constraining.  As he moves to “drain the swamp”, Trump will have to make the transition from candidate to elected official and from someone who is critical of Congress to a leader who will have to find the means to work with it.  For their part, both the Republican Party (which held on to both the Congress and Senate) and Democratic Party will have to adjust to a President who has not emerged from their ranks.  A new Washington looms on the horizon – hopefully it works.

Dr. Scott B. MacDonald, Chief Economist

 

Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap

Needless to say there was no activity in today’s IG dollar DCM.

 

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

 

  • BAML’s IG Master Index tightened 1 bp to +139 vs. +140.  +106 represents the post-Crisis low dating back to July 2007.
  • Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS tightened 1 bp to 1.34 vs. 1.35.  The “LUACOAS” wide since 2012 is +215. The tight is +135.
  • Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread tightened 1 bp to +184 vs. +185.  The +140 reached on July 30th 2014 represents the post-Crisis low.
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $15b on Tuesday versus $14.1b Monday and $19.8b the previous Tuesday.
  • The 10-DMA stands at $16.5b.

 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and November

 

IG Corporate New Issuance This Week
11/07-11/11
vs. Current
WTD – $945mm
November 2016 vs. Current
MTD – $8.411b
Low-End Avg. $8.09b 11.68% $90.70b 9.27%
Midpoint Avg. $9.83b 9.61% $92.11b 9.13%
High-End Avg. $11.57b 8.17% $93.52b 8.99%
The Low $0.1b 945.00% $71b 11.85%
The High $20b 4.725% $110b 7.65%

 

 

Below please find my synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary from today’s debt capital markets, including the investment grade corporate bond data drill down as seen from my seat here in Syndicate, Sales and DCM.

 

Have a great evening!
Ron Quigley

 

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

 

Here’s a review of this week’s key primary market driver averages for IG Corporates only through Wednesday’s session followed by the averages over the prior four weeks:

KEY IG CORPORATE
NEW ISSUE DRIVERS
MON.
11/07
TUES.
11/08
WED.
11/09
AVERAGES
WEEK 10/31
AVERAGES
WEEK 10/24
AVERAGES
WEEK 10/17
AVERAGES
WEEK 10/10
New Issue Concessions <3> bps N/A N/A <0.87> bps <0.51> bps 3.31 bps 1.87 bps
Oversubscription Rates 2.50x N/A N/A 3.32x 2.61x 3.05x 3.28x
Tenors 4.50 yrs N/A N/A 11.33 yrs 7.77 yrs 9.16 yrs 11.51 yrs
Tranche Sizes $472mm N/A N/A $491mm $818mm $1,137mm $640mm
Avg. Spd. Compression
IPTs to Launch
<16.5> bps N/A N/A <17.87> yrs <17.42> bps

 

Indexes and New Issue Volume

Index levels are as of 2:00pm ET

Index Open Current Change
LUACOAS 1.34 1.34 0
IG27 75.757 74.823 <0.924>
HV27 172.135 170.27 <1.865>
VIX 18.74 15.45 <3.29>
S&P 2,139 2,158 19
DOW 18,332 18,541 209
 

USD

 

IG Corporates

 

USD

 

Total IG (+SSA)

DAY: $0.945 bn DAY: $0.945 bn
WTD: $0.945 bn WTD: $0.945 bn
MTD: $8.411 bn MTD: $8.411 bn
YTD: $1,177.192 bn YTD: $1,507.076 bn

 

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending November 2nd  

     

  • For the week ended November 2nd, Lipper U.S. Fund Flows reported an outflow of $2.495b from Corporate Investment Grade Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $40.292b) and a net outflow of $4.116b from High Yield Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $6.954b).
  • Over the same period, Lipper reported a net inflow of $146.468m into Loan Participation Funds (2016 YTD net outflow of $1.518b).
  • Emerging Market debt funds reported a net outflow of $345.7m (2016 YTD inflow of $7.337b).

 

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

Above is the opening extract from Quigley’s Corner aka “QC” Wednesday November 8, 2016 weekend edition distributed via email to institutional investment managers and Fortune Treasury clients of Mischler Financial Group, the investment industry’s oldest and largest minority broker-dealer owned and operated by Service-Disabled Veterans.

Cited by Wall Street Letter in each of 2014, 2015 and 2016 for “Best Research / Broker-Dealer”, the QC observations is one of three distinctive research content pieces produced by Mischler Financial Group. The QC is a daily synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary as seen from the perch of our fixed income trading and debt capital markets desk and includes a comprehensive “deep dive” with optics on the day’s investment grade corporate debt new issuance and secondary market data encompassing among other items, comparables, investment grade credit spreads, new issue activity, secondary market most active issues, and upcoming pipeline.

To receive Quigley’s Corner, please contact Ron Quigley, Managing Director and Head of Fixed Income Syndicate via email: rquigley@mischlerfinancial.com or via phone.

*Sources: Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, Bloomberg, Bond Radar, Dow Jones Newswire, IFR, Informa Global Markets, Internal Mischler, LCDNews, Market News International, Prospect News, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, S, Thomson Reuters and of course, a career of sources, contacts, movers and shakers from syndicate desks to accounts; from issuers to originators; from academicians to heads of research, and a host of financial journalists, et al.

Mischler Financial Group’s “U.S. Syndicate Closing Commentary”  is produced weekly by Mischler Financial Group. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner without the permission of Mischler Financial Group. Although the statements of fact have been obtained from and are based upon sources Mischler Financial Group believes reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete.  All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to change without notice.  This report is for informational purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security.   Mischler Financial Group, its affiliates and their respective officers, directors, partners and employees, including persons involved in the preparation of this report, may from time to time maintain a long or short position in, or purchase or sell a position in, hold or act as market-makers or advisors or brokers in relation to the securities (or related securities, financial products, options, warrants, rights, or derivatives), of companies mentioned in this report or be represented on the board of such companies. Neither Mischler Financial Group nor any officer or employee of Mischler Financial Group or any affiliate thereof accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential damages or losses arising from any use of this report or its contents.  “Mischler Financial” Group and the Mischler Financial Group.

Quigley’s Corner 11.09.16- It’s Done. America Voted for a New US President. What’s Next re USD and IG Corporate Debt Market?