Corporate Bond Issuers Stand Down-But Not For Long
November 17, 2016   //   by Mischler MarCom   //   Debt Market Commentary  

Quigley’s Corner 11.16.16- What’s a Corporate Bond Issuer To Do Now?

 

Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap 

Global Market Recap

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and November

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

New Issues Priced

Indexes and New Issue Volume

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending November 9th   

IG Credit Spreads (by Rating/Industry)

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

Tomorrow’s Calendar

 

6 IG Corporate issuers tapped the dollar DCM today pricing 13 tranches between them totaling $9.15b and bringing the WTD total to nearly 85% of this week’s syndicate midpoint average forecast or $25b vs. $29.45b.  The SSA space hosted BNG’s $600mm 3-year for an all-in IG day total of 7 issuers, 14 tranches and $9.75b.

We do know that both Abbott Labs (NYSE: ABT) and Chevron Phillips Chemical Company LLC wrapped their respective investor calls today so they are both clear to “go” from that perspective in terms of issuance.  In the current environment, I’m not so sure issuers want to print sizeable deals on a Friday or hold back jumbo deals over the weekend.  What’s that mean? Simple. Both could price tomorrow in which case we could see a $20bn or more day tomorrow in our IG dollar DCM.  Stay tuned.

Global Market Recap

 

  • S. Treasuries – USTs hit overnight but rallied during NY hours and were led by the 30yr.
  • Overseas Bonds – JGB’s very weak. Core EU little changed and Peripherals hit hard.
  • Stocks – U.S. stocks mixed at 3:30pm, Europe down, Nikkei higher and China unchanged.
  • Economic – U.S. PPI was lower than expected/last and IP and Cap U were weaker.
  • Currencies – USD mixed vs. Big 5. DXY Index strongest 2003 and ADXY weakest since 2009.
  • Commodities – Crude oil with a small loss, gold little changed and copper sold off.
  • CDX IG: +1.31 to 75.30
  • CDX HY: +4.98 to 415.03
  • CDX EM: +8.97 to 271.81

*CDX levels are as of 3:30PM ET today.

-Tony Farren

 

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

 

  • The average spread compression from IPTs thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 13 IG Corporate-only new issues that displayed price evolution was 18.35 bps.
  • BAML’s IG Master Index tightened 1 bp to +135 vs. +136.  +106 represents the post-Crisis low dating back to July 2007.
  • Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS tightened 2 bps to +128 vs. 1.30.  The “LUACOAS” wide since 2012 is +215. The tight is +135.
  • Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread tightened 1 bp to +180 vs. +181.  The +140 reached on July 30th 2014 represents the post-Crisis low.
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $20.3b on Tuesday versus $18.2b Monday and $15b the previous Tuesday.  That’s the 5th highest Tuesday session since 2005 and the 2nd highest Monday session since November 2005.
  • The 10-DMA stands at $17.4b.

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and November

 

IG Corporate New Issuance This Week
11/14-11/18
vs. Current
WTD – $25.00b
November 2016 vs. Current
MTD – $41.461b
Low-End Avg. $28.32b 88.28% $90.70b 45.71%
Midpoint Avg. $29.45b 84.89% $92.11b 45.01%
High-End Avg. $30.59b 81.73% $93.52b 44.33%
The Low $20b 125.00% $71b 58.40%
The High $40b 62.50% $110b 37.69%

 

Below please find my synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary from today’s debt capital markets, including the investment grade corporate bond data drill down as seen from my seat here in Syndicate, Sales and DCM.

Have a great evening!
Ron Quigley

 

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

 

Here’s a review of this week’s key primary market driver averages for IG Corporates only through Tuesday’s session followed by the averages over the prior four weeks:

KEY IG CORPORATE
NEW ISSUE DRIVERS
MON.
11/14
TUES.
11/15
AVERAGES
WEEK 11/07
AVERAGES
WEEK 10/31
AVERAGES
WEEK 10/24
AVERAGES
WEEK 10/17
New Issue Concessions 2.85 bps 2.79 bps <3.60> bps <0.87> bps <0.51> bps 3.31 bps
Oversubscription Rates 2.38x 3.23x 4.26x 3.32x 2.61x 3.05x
Tenors 11.05 yrs 10.74 yrs 13.31 yrs 11.33 yrs 7.77 yrs 9.16 yrs
Tranche Sizes $991mm $707mm $692mm $491mm $818mm $1,137mm
Avg. Spd. Compression
IPTs to Launch
<14.5> bps <21.57> bps <22.96> bps <17.87> yrs <17.42> bps  

 

New Issues Priced

Today’s recap of visitors to our IG dollar Corporate and SSA DCM:

For ratings I use the better two of Moody’s, S&P or Fitch.

 

IG

Issuer Ratings Coupon Maturity Size IPTs GUIDANCE LAUNCH PRICED LEADS
AEP Transmission Co. LLC A2/A- 3.10% 12/01/2026 300 +110a +90-95 +90 +90 BARC/CS/JPM/SCOT(a)
BAML/MIZ/RBS/STRH(p)
AEP Transmission Co. LLC A2/A- 4.00% 12/01/2046 400 +140a +115-120 +115 +115 BARC/CS/JPM/SCOT(a)
BAML/MIZ/RBS/STRH(p)
American Honda Fin. Corp. A1/A+ FRN 11/19/2018 750 3mL+equiv 3mL+31a (+/-3) 3mL+28 3mL+28 BNPP/DB/JPM/MS
American Honda Fin. Corp. A1/A+ 1.50% 11/19/2018 450 +low-mid 60s
+63.75
+55a (+/-3) +52 +52 BNPP/DB/JPM/MS
ANZ Banking Group Ltd./NY Aa3/AA- FRN 9/23/2019 850 3mL+equiv 3mL+equiv 3mL+66 3mL+66 ANZ/GS/JPM/WFS
ANZ Banking Group Ltd./NY Aa3/AA- 2.05% 9/23/2019 900 +90-95 +85a (+/-5) +80 +80 ANZ/GS/JPM/WFS
ANZ Banking Group Ltd./NY Aa3/AA- FRN 9/23/2021 400 3mL+equiv 3mL+equiv 3mL+87 3mL+87 ANZ/GS/JPM/WFS
ANZ Banking Group Ltd./NY Aa3/AA- 2.55% 9/23/2021 850 +100-105 +95a (+/-5) +90 +90 ANZ/GS/JPM/WFS
HollyFrontier Corp. (tap)
New Total: $1bn
Baa3/BBB- 5.875% 4/01/2026 750 +hi 300s/+387.5a +362.5 the # +362.5 +362.5  
HSBC Holdings Inc. A2/A+ 4.375% 11/23/2026 1,500 +235a +215-220 +215 +215 HSBC-sole
Mastercard Inc. A2/A 2.00% 11/21/2021 650 +70a +50a (+/-5) +45 +45 BAML/CITI/HSBC/MIZ/USB
Mastercard Inc. A2/A 2.95% 11/21/2026 750 +100a +80a (+/-5) +75 +75 BAML/CITI/HSBC/MIZ/USB
Mastercard Inc. A2/A 3.80% 11/21/2046 600 +120a +100a (+/-5) +95 +95 BAML/CITI/HSBC/MIZ/USB

 

 

Above is the opening extract from Quigley’s Corner aka “QC” Wednesday November 16, 2016 edition distributed via email to institutional investment managers and Fortune Treasury clients of Mischler Financial Group, the investment industry’s oldest and largest minority broker-dealer owned and operated by Service-Disabled Veterans.

Cited by Wall Street Letter in each of 2014, 2015 and 2016 for “Best Research / Broker-Dealer”, the QC observations is one of three distinctive research content pieces produced by Mischler Financial Group. The QC is a daily synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary as seen from the perch of our fixed income trading and debt capital markets desk and includes a comprehensive “deep dive” with optics on the day’s investment grade corporate debt new issuance and secondary market data encompassing among other items, comparables, investment grade credit spreads, new issue activity, secondary market most active issues, and upcoming pipeline.

To receive Quigley’s Corner, please contact Ron Quigley, Managing Director and Head of Fixed Income Syndicate via email: rquigley@mischlerfinancial.com or via phone.

*Sources: Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, Bloomberg, Bond Radar, Dow Jones Newswire, IFR, Informa Global Markets, Internal Mischler, LCDNews, Market News International, Prospect News, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, S, Thomson Reuters and of course, a career of sources, contacts, movers and shakers from syndicate desks to accounts; from issuers to originators; from academicians to heads of research, and a host of financial journalists, et al.

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 Corporate Bond Issuers Stand Down-But Not For Long