The Day’s New Debt Issuance: USD 22.5bil Floated Across 15 Deals
January 12, 2017   //   by Mischler MarCom   //   Debt Market Commentary  

Quigley’s Corner 01.11.17-$22.5bil in New Debt Issuance Floated / 15 Deals; Led by Broadcom and GM Financial

 

Investment Grade Corporate Bond New Issue Re-Cap 

Global Market Recap

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for January 

Rates Trading Lab

General Motors Financial Co. Inc. $2.5b 3-part 5yr FXD/FRN and 10yr Senior Unsecured Notes Deal Dashboard

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

New Issues Priced

Indexes and New Issue Volume

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending January 4th     

IG Credit Spreads by Rating / Industry

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline

Economic Data Releases

Tomorrow’s Calendar

It was yet another very busy and high volume day today in our IG dollar DCM that featured 6 IG Corporate issuers across 13 tranches totaling $20.50b led by a $13.55b 4-part from Broadcom and a $2.5b 3-part deal from General Motors Financial Co. Inc.  Additionally, 2 SSA issuers brought 2 tranches adding another $1.75b thereby bringing the all-in IG day totals to 8 issuers, 15 tranches and $22.25b.

The WTD IG Corporate-only total is now $32.05b or 10% more than this week’s $30.13b syndicate midpoint average estimate.
MTD we have now realized $85.283b or 79% of the syndicate forecast for all of January which is $108.41b.
All-in IG Corporate plus SSA MTD issuance currently stands at: $111.533b.

Mischler Financial served as an active Co-Manager on today’s $2.5b 3-part Senior Unsecured Notes new issue for General Motors Financial Co. Inc. and so it is today’s Deal-of-the-Day.  You know the routine, let’s re-cap the day first and then it’s on to the GM Deal Dashboard and drill-down.

 

Global Market Recap

 

  • U.S. Treasuries –  USTs had small gains. Strong 10yr auction. Afternoon selling hit market.
  • Overseas Bonds – Europe traded with a bid. JGB’s mixed. Supply was a factor.
  • 3mth Libor – Set at the highest yield since April 2009 (1.02178%).
  • Stocks – U.S. stocks higher heading into close. Today was a roller coaster ride.
  • Overseas Stocks – FTSE (12) & HS (10) with double digit session winning streaks.
  • Economic – IBD/TIPP economic optimism at a 10-year high.
  • Currencies – USD had a bid until the Trump press conference & then rolled over.
  • Commodities – Crude oil with a strong rally despite bearish inventory data.
  • CDX IG: +0.16 to 66.24
  • CDX HY: +1.40 to 352.25
  • CDX EM: +0.68 to 241.96

*CDX levels are as of 3:30PM ET today.

-Tony Farren

 

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

 

  • The average spread compression from IPTs thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 13 IG Corporate-only new issues was <21.46> bps.
  • BAML’s IG Master Index was unchanged at +129.  +106 represents the post-Crisis low dating back to July 2007.
  • Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS was unchanged at +122.  The “LUACOAS” wide since 2012 is +215. The tight is +122.
  • Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread was unchanged at +166.  The +140 reached on July 30th 2014 represents the post-Crisis low.
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $20.3b on Tuesday versus $16.7b on Monday (the 7th highest day since 2006) and $22.4b the previous Tuesday.

 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for January 

 

IG Corporate New Issuance This Week
1/09-1/13
vs. Current
WTD – $32.05b
January 2017
Forecasts
vs. Current
MTD – $85.283b
Low-End Avg. $29.04b 110.37% $107.87b 79.06%
Midpoint Avg. $30.13b 106.37% $108.41b 78.67%
High-End Avg. $31.22b 102.66% $108.96b 78.27%
The Low $20b 160.25% $80b 106.60%
The High $40b 80.13% $145b 58.82%

 

Rates Trading Lab

If you were hoping to hear news on the Trump Administration’s plans for the economy (fiscal policy) in today’s press conference you were sorely disappointed. The mass media proved once again they are pretty close to being worthless. The majority of the questions directed to President-Elect Trump concerned Russia and Putin. Some of the things we did learn from Trump today were his plans to step away from the Trump Organization, he will pick a Supreme Court nominee within 2 weeks of his inauguration, he thinks leaks are coming from the intelligence community and CNN is not high on his list.

UST’s dealt with conflicting items today. The 10yr had a bid heading into the $20b 10yr auction and rallied after the auction results were very strong (details below). It was the 4th very strong Treasury auction in a row. Treasuries came under pressure after the auction bounce and the most likely reason for the selling was the 4-part $13.55b Broadcom deal. The deal was much bigger than expected ($6b). Broadcom was the highlight deal but not the only one today. The new issue markets in the U.S. and Europe remained very active. At the 3pm close  benchmark UST’s were better bid by 0.3 bps (5yr: 1.876%) to 1.4 bps (30yr: 2.957%).
-Tony Farren

 

UST Resistance/Support Table

 

CT3 CT5 CT7 CT10 CT30
RESISTANCE LEVEL 99-29 100-29+ 100-28+ 97-09+ 99-27+
RESISTANCE LEVEL 99-272 100-262 100-25+ 97-04 99-11
RESISTANCE LEVEL 99-26 100-222 100-18+ 96-29 98-26
           
SUPPORT LEVEL 99-22+ 100-156 100-10+ 96-18 97-27
SUPPORT LEVEL 99-20+ 100-12+ 100-05+ 96-11 97-08
SUPPORT LEVEL 99-18+ 100-09 100-00+ 96-04+ 96-17

 

General Motors Financial Co. Inc. $2.5b 3-part 5yr FXD/FRN and 10yr Senior Unsecured Notes Deal Dashboard

Above is the opening extract from Quigley’s Corner aka “QC”  Wednesday Jan 11, 2017 edition distributed via email to institutional investment managers and Fortune Treasury clients of Mischler Financial Group, the investment industry’s oldest and largest minority broker-dealer owned and operated by Service-Disabled Veterans.

Cited by Wall Street Letter in each of 2014, 2015 and 2016 for “Best Research / Broker-Dealer”, the QC observations is one of three distinctive research content pieces produced by Mischler Financial Group. The QC is a daily synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary as seen from the perch of our fixed income trading and debt capital markets desk and includes a comprehensive “deep dive” with optics on the day’s investment grade corporate debt new issuance and secondary market data encompassing among other items, comparables, investment grade credit spreads, new issue activity, secondary market most active issues, and upcoming pipeline.

To receive Quigley’s Corner, please contact Ron Quigley, Managing Director and Head of Fixed Income Syndicate via email: rquigley@mischlerfinancial.com or via phone.

*Sources: Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, Bloomberg, Bond Radar, Dow Jones Newswire, IFR, Informa Global Markets, Internal Mischler, LCDNews, Market News International, Prospect News, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, S, Thomson Reuters and of course, a career of sources, contacts, movers and shakers from syndicate desks to accounts; from issuers to originators; from academicians to heads of research, and a host of financial journalists, et al.

Mischler Financial Group’s “U.S. Syndicate Closing Commentary”  is produced weekly by Mischler Financial Group. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner without the permission of Mischler Financial Group. Although the statements of fact have been obtained from and are based upon sources Mischler Financial Group believes reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete.  All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to change without notice.  This report is for informational purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security.   Veteran-owned broker-dealer Mischler Financial Group, its affiliates and their respective officers, directors, partners and employees, including persons involved in the preparation of this report, may from time to time maintain a long or short position in, or purchase or sell a position in, hold or act as market-makers or advisors or brokers in relation to the securities (or related securities, financial products, options, warrants, rights, or derivatives), of companies mentioned in this report or be represented on the board of such companies. Neither Mischler Financial Group nor any officer or employee of Mischler Financial Group or any affiliate thereof accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential damages or losses arising from any use of this report or its contents.

Quigley’s Corner 01.11.17-$22.5bil in New Debt Issuance Floated / 15 Deals; Led by Broadcom and GM Financial