FIGs in Favor Despite Market Caution Caused by Trump TPP Move
January 24, 2017   //   by Mischler MarCom   //   Debt Market Commentary  

Quigley’s Corner 01.23.17 FIGS in Favor Despite Market Caution re:Trump TPP Move

 

Investment Grade Corporate Bond New Issue Re-Cap
Global Market Recap

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and January 

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. $5b 3-part 5NC4 FXD/FRN and 10nc9r Deal Dashboard

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

Goldman’s Lloyd Blankfein Appears in the “QC”

New Issues Priced

Indexes and New Issue Volume

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending January 18th     

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

IG Credit Spreads by Industry

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

Tomorrow’s Calendar


President Trump today pulled the U.S. out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership or “TPP” the trade agreement between twelve Pacific Rim countries including China causing some to fear a protectionist U.S. Administration.  Having said that, and refraining from any political commentary therein, it set the stage for a rather “cautious” day in today’s IG dollar DCM.  However, those who could pull off a great deal on the heels of incredible Q4 earnings like The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. did just that.  Today’s IG primary market featured 4 issuers, 9 tranches and a total of $9.05bn. 55.25% of the day total came in the form of Goldman Sachs’ $5b 3-part 5NC4 FXD/FRN and 10NC9.  Mischler Financial served as an active Co-Manager on the 10NC9 tranche today making it today’s “Deal-of-the-Day.”  There was no activity from the SSA space.

 

Today’s MTD all-in IG Corporate plus SSA new issue total of $174.533b represents the sixth highest volume month on record. We are a mere $3.882b away from third place all-time.
WTD we have priced over 44% of this week’s midpoint average syndicate forecast and we’re now over 16% above the syndicate projection for January with 6 business days to go!

Let’s first briefly run thru the daily recaps before I get into the GS deal drill-down and a feature with GS Chairman Lloyd Blankfein! That’s right, he’s here and waiting for you so let’s get to it. 

Global Market Recap

 

  • U.S. Treasuries – Rally for USTs and bonds in Europe. JGB’s were mixed and little changed.
  • Stocks – Little changed heading into the close and had a nice comeback today.
  • Overseas Bonds – Europe and Japan closed down while China closed higher.
  • Economic – Not a factor today in the U.S. or across the globe.
  • Currencies – USD had a poor day and lost ground vs. all of the Big 5.
  • Commodities – Crude oil was lower and the metals closed with gains.
  • CDX IG: +0.74 to 66.61
  • CDX HY: +2.58 to 352.66
  • CDX EM: +0.19 to 237.39

*CDX levels are as of 3:30PM ET today.

-Tony Farren

 

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

 

  • Aercap Ireland CDAC/Aercap Global Aviation Trust not only upsized today’s new 5.25ye Senior Notes new issue to $600mm from $500mm but they did so at the T+170 launch that was 5 bps tighter than +180 “area” guidance (+/-5).
  • Branch Bank and Trust Company dropped the 5-year FRN tranche at guidance from today’s initially announced 4-part 3- and 5-year FXD/FRN.
  • The average spread compression from IPTs thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 9 IG Corporate-only new issues was <15.61> bps.
  • BAML’s IG Master Index was unchanged at +128.  +106 represents the post-Crisis low dating back to July 2007.
  • Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS was unchanged at +122.  The “LUACOAS” wide since 2012 is +215. The tight is +122.
  • Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread was unchanged at +165.  The +140 reached on July 30th 2014 represents the post-Crisis low.
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $15.2b on Friday versus $23.5b on Thursday and $13.7b the previous Friday.

 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and January 

 

IG Corporate New Issuance This Week
1/23-1/27
vs. Current
WTD – $9.05b
January 2017
Forecasts
vs. Current
MTD – $125.783b
Low-End Avg. $19.09b 47.41% $107.87b 116.61%
Midpoint Avg. $20.46b 44.23% $108.41b 116.03%
High-End Avg. $21.83b 41.46% $108.96b 115.44%
The Low $15b 60.33% $80b 157.23%
The High $26b 34.81% $145b 86.75%

 

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS)$5b 3-part 5NC4 FXD/FRN and 10nc9r Deal Dashboard

 

I typically only write a relative value study on tranches we are involved in but given the size, scope and impact of this deal – not to mention it was a “Golden” deal – I’m breaking my protocol for the full magilla.  All three tranches right here, right now for YOU!

This morning prior to the market open, the Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. riding high on last week’s blow away Q4 earnings announcement took full advantage today to hit the tapes and price a $5b 3-part 5NC4 FXD/FRN and a new 10NC9 with proceeds used for general corporate purposes. Goldman’s Q4 ’16 bond trading revenues surged to $3.60b against $3.45b expectations.  Goldman Sachs’ Q4 reported diluted EPS of $4.88 against $3.88 forecasts came on $8.17b in total revenues or 10% more than $7.41b projections.   Timing is everything folks!

Mischler served as an active 0.50% Co-Manager on Goldman’s 41.75b 10NC9 tranche and we saw accounts clamoring for new Goldman paper so much so that the high quality order book went subject at 9:00 am to make allocations more manageable.

For 10NC5 fair value I looked at the outstanding GS 3.50% due 11/16/2026 that was T+145 bid (G+145) pre-announcement landing NIC as 3 bps against today’s T+148 10NC9 final pricing.

The new 5NC4 Iooked to the outstanding GS 2.35 due 11/15/2021 that was T+107 bid pre-announcement or G+108 pegging NIC on today’s new 5NC4 FXD/FRNs as 12bps.

However, curve adjusting for the longer 4/26/22 final maturity date compressed the concession significantly.  The value differential from the GS 11/2021 to the GS 4/2022 is about 8-and- a-third or 8.33 bps. Check the 5s/6s curve set by both JPM and WFC. They added 8.33 bps to G108 to get to T+116-117bp fair value and therefore a 3-4 bps new issue concession versus today’s final T+120 final pricing. Conclusion: strong pricing on great news and congratulations all around to Team Goldman Sachs!

Clearly accounts have a strong appetite for big FIGs in what is anticipated to be a more favorable environment for financial services under our new Administration.

 

GS Issue IPTs GUIDANCE LAUNCH PRICED Spread
Compression
NICs
(bps)
Trading at
the Break
+/-
(bps)
5NC4 FRN 3mL+equiv 3mL+equiv 3mL+111 3mL+111 <15> bps 3.5 bps 3mL+110/108 <1>
5NC4 FXD +135a +120 the # +120 +120 <15> bps 3.5 bps 119/118 <1>
10NC9 +165a +150a (+/-2) +148 +148 <17> bps 3 bps 147/145 <1>

 

………and here’s a look at final book sizes and oversubscription rates:

 

GS  Issue Tranche Size Final Book
Size
Bid-to-Cover
Rate
5NC4 FRN $1b $1.6n 1.60x
5NC4 FXD $2.25b $4.3b 1.91x
10NC9 $1.75b $4.3b 2.46x

 

Final Pricing – The Goldman Sachs group, Inc.
GS $1b 3mL+111 due 4/26/2022 5NC4 FRN at $100.00

GS $2.25b 3.00% 5NC4 due 4/26/2022 @ $99.680 to yield 3.067% or T+120  MW+20

GS $1.75b 3.85% 10NC9 due 1/26/2027 @ $99.720 to yield 3.884% or T+148  MW+25

 

Now Let’s Do a Deep Dive Into Goldman Sachs’ D&I Initiative

 

Goldman Sachs strives to provide a full spectrum of businesses with the opportunity to compete on a fair and equal basis for its business and, ideally, to expand and grow while working with them. Team Goldman understands and embraces that having a diverse and inclusive supply chain is a social and economic imperative and they look for vendors that share this commitment in a value-added way.

 

To do this, Goldman Sachs encourages the use of qualified businesses where opportunities exist, promote strategic partnerships and engage a number of external stakeholders in support of their efforts.  Goldman continues to make progress expanding the global reach of its vendor diversity and inclusion efforts. Its program began in North America in 2000, expanded to Europe in 2005 and then to Asia Pacific in 2009.  Currently Team GS has diversity and inclusion definitions for over 20 countries where it operates, which include the following categories, where applicable:

 

  • Ethnic Minority Owned
  • Indigenous Owned
  • Locally Owned or Locally Owned and Small and Medium Enterprise
  • Disability Owned
  • Service Disabled Veteran Owned Small Business
  • Social Enterprise Business
  • Small and Medium Enterprise or Small Business
  • Supported Business
  • Veteran Owned Small Business
  • Women Owned

 

When constructing its global headquarters in New York, more than $300 million was awarded to women and minority-owned businesses – making it the most successful project in the history of New York State’s Minority and Women Owned Business Enterprise program upon completion. Nontraditional Employment for Women (NEW), a New York nonprofit that works with unions to bring women into higher-paying jobs in construction trades, recognized Goldman Sachs with its Equity Leadership award for its diversity efforts in the construction of its headquarters building. This is just one example of Goldman’s commitment to vendor diversity and inclusion.

As a firm, The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. takes its reputation for excellence seriously and seeks to align with business partners who share their commitment to quality. In selecting its vendors, GS considers businesses that can supply its organization with the most cost-effective, reliable products and services. Prospective vendors are evaluated on several criteria, including:

  • Quality of their products and services
  • Customer service
  • Pricing
  • Ability to assist us in meeting our business goals
  • Environmental, Social and Governance commitments

 

Goldman’s Lloyd Blankfein Appears in the “QC” and I Explain Why He Has Good Reason to Smile

Goldman Sachs has a passion for achieving results – for our clients, our employees and the communities where we work around the globe. We understand that one way to improve our results is to capitalize on the broad range of experience, skill and perspective that people from different backgrounds possess.

Through our Vendor Diversity Program, Goldman Sachs seeks to cultivate relationships with diverse businesses that share our commitment to achieving excellent results. Vendor diversity not only increases competition and the potential for economic savings, but also provides a means to build the economic foundation of the communities in which we operate around the world. Through the unique expertise of diverse businesses, Goldman Sachs benefits from innovative ideas, a broader customer base and better service for our clients. Our goal is for the firm to have access to the highest quality products and services at the best possible price. We look forward to the prospect of working with you.

Lloyd C. Blankfein
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Despite recently losing some of Goldman’s top guns to appointments in our nation’s new Presidential Administration, Goldman Sachs’ leadership call to Diversity and Inclusion has not missed a beat. Today’s transaction exemplifies what it means to sculpt and mold a best-in-class initiative predicated on a win-win value-added proposition. That means when presented with an opportunity to serve GS, you are expected to deliver the goods, according to Goldman Sachs’ highest standards.  Today, from the top down in Syndicate and Treasury/Funding every single solitary one of the 10 operatives I liaised with were at the ready to address their Chairman’s call and mandate.  It’s one thing for me to thank them each – which I do every time – but entirely another thing when the boss of bosses hears it directly from the diversity firm itself.  So, a five-star salute goes off to Team GS and the capo di tutt’i Wall Street capis, Mr. Lloyd Blankfein.
Have a great evening!

Ron Quigley, Managing Director & Head of Fixed Income Syndicate

Below please find my synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary from today’s debt capital markets, including the investment grade corporate bond data drill down as seen from my seat here in Syndicate, Sales and DCM.

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

 

…..and here’s another look at last week’s day-by-day re-cap of key primary market driver averages for IG Corporates only followed by the prior six week’s averages:

KEY IG CORPORATE
NEW ISSUE DRIVERS
MON.
1/16
TUES.
1/17
WED.
1/18
TH.
1/19
FRI.
1/20
AVERAGES
WEEK 1/16
AVERAGES
WEEK 1/09
AVERAGES
WEEK 1/02
AVERAGES
WEEK 12/26
AVERAGES
WEEK 12/19
AVERAGES
WEEK 12/12
New Issue Concessions Holiday 3.15 bps 6.56 bps <2> bps N/A 3.42 bps 0.85 bps 2.25 bps N/A N/A <0.50> bps
Oversubscription Rates Holiday 2.37x 2.73x 1.76x N/A 2.40x 2.85x 2.45x N/A N/A 2.41x
Tenors Holiday 18 yrs 6.89 yrs 4 yrs N/A 12 yrs 7.83 yrs 6.52 yrs N/A N/A 10.67 yrs
Tranche Sizes Holiday $1,596mm $606mm $750mm N/A $1,123mm $927mm $859mm N/A N/A $708mm
Avg. Spd. Compression
IPTs to Launch
Holiday <14.04> bps <16.03> bps <13.75> bps N/A <14.69> bps <18.77> bps <15.27> bps N/A N/A <17.17> bps

 

New Issues Priced

Today’s recap of visitors to our IG dollar Corporate and SSA DCM:

For ratings I use the better two of Moody’s, S&P or Fitch.

 

IG          

Issuer Ratings Coupon Maturity Size IPTs GUIDANCE LAUNCH PRICED LEADS
Aercap Ireland CDAC/
Aercap Global Aviation
BBB-/BBB- 3.50% 5/26/2022 600 +200a +180a (+/-5) +170 +170 BAML/CITI/GS/JPM
Branch Banking & Trust Co. A1/A+ FRN 1/15/2020 600 3mL+equiv 3mL+equiv 3mL+45 3mL+45 BARC/BBT/MS/RBC
Branch Banking & Trust Co. A1/A+ 2.10% 1/15/2020 1,000 +high 70s/+77.5 +70a (+/-2) +68 +68 BARC/BBT/MS/RBC
Branch Banking & Trust Co. A1/A+ 2.625% 1/15/2022 1,000 +high 80s/+87.5 +80a (+/-2) +78 +78 BARC/BBT/MS/RBC
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. A3/A FRN 4/26/2022 1,000 3mL+equiv 3mL+equiv 3mL+111   GS-sole
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. A3/A X.XX% 4/26/2022 2,250 +135a +120 the # +120   GS-sole
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. A3/A X.XX% 1/26/2027 1,750 +165a +150a (+/-2) +148   GS-sole
MidAmerican Energy Co. Aa2/A+ 3.10% 5/01/2027 375 +85-90/+87.5a +75a (+/-5) +70 +70 BNPP/BARC/CITI/MIZ/USB
MidAmerican Energy Co. Aa2/A+ 3.95% 8/01/2047 475 +110-115/+112.5a +100a (+/-5) +95 +95 BNPP/BARC/CITI/MIZ/USB

 

Above is the opening extract from Quigley’s Corner aka “QC”  Monday Jan 23, 2017 edition distributed via email to institutional investment managers and Fortune Treasury clients of Mischler Financial Group, the investment industry’s oldest minority broker-dealer owned and operated by Service-Disabled Veterans.

Cited by Wall Street Letter in each of 2014, 2015 and 2016 for “Best Research / Broker-Dealer”, the QC observations is one of three distinctive research content pieces produced by Mischler Financial Group. The QC is a daily synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary as seen from the perch of our fixed income trading and debt capital markets desk and includes a comprehensive “deep dive” with optics on the day’s investment grade corporate debt new issuance and secondary market data encompassing among other items, comparables, investment grade credit spreads, new issue activity, secondary market most active issues, and upcoming pipeline.

To receive Quigley’s Corner, please contact Ron Quigley, Managing Director and Head of Fixed Income Syndicate via email: rquigley@mischlerfinancial.com or via phone.

*Sources: Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, Bloomberg, Bond Radar, Dow Jones Newswire, IFR, Informa Global Markets, Internal Mischler, LCDNews, Market News International, Prospect News, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, S, Thomson Reuters and of course, a career of sources, contacts, movers and shakers from syndicate desks to accounts; from issuers to originators; from academicians to heads of research, and a host of financial journalists, et al.

Mischler Financial Group’s “U.S. Syndicate Closing Commentary”  is produced weekly by Mischler Financial Group. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner without the permission of Mischler Financial Group. Although the statements of fact have been obtained from and are based upon sources Mischler Financial Group believes reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete.  All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to change without notice.  This report is for informational purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security.   Veteran-owned broker-dealer Mischler Financial Group, its affiliates and their respective officers, directors, partners and employees, including persons involved in the preparation of this report, may from time to time maintain a long or short position in, or purchase or sell a position in, hold or act as market-makers or advisors or brokers in relation to the securities (or related securities, financial products, options, warrants, rights, or derivatives), of companies mentioned in this report or be represented on the board of such companies. Neither Mischler Financial Group nor any officer or employee of Mischler Financial Group or any affiliate thereof accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential damages or losses arising from any use of this report or its contents.

FIGS in Favor Despite Market Caution re:Trump TPP Move