Cat’s Out of the Bag-Caterpillar 2-part Leads Day’s Deals; Mischler Debt Market Comment
March 21, 2017   //   by Mischler MarCom   //   Debt Market Commentary  

Quigley’s Corner 03.20.17 – Debt Deal of the Day: Caterpillar Financial Services 

 

Investment Grade Corporate Debt New Issue Re-Cap The Cat’s Out of the Bag-Caterpillar Financial Srvs $900m 2-part

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

Global Market Recap

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and March

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

New Issues Priced

Indexes and New Issue Volume

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending March 15th

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

IG Credit Spreads by Industry

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline – $225.5 Billion in Cumulative Enterprise

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

Tomorrow’s Calendar

 

 

4 IG Corporate issuers tapped the dollar DCM today pricing 8 tranches between them totaling $4.625b.  Caterpillar Financial Services, Heineken NV, Mass Mutual Life and Korea National Oil were the names of the day; the SSA space was quiet today.
The IG Corporate only WTD total is 18% of the syndicate midpoint average forecast or $4.625b vs. $25.65b.
MTD, we’ve now priced 81% of the IG Corporate mid-range projection for all of March or $93.098b vs. $114.31b.
The all-in MTD total (IG Corporates plus SSA) now stands at $123.508b.

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

  • Mass Mutual Life Insurance Co. upsized today’s 144a/REGS 60-year Surplus Notes new issue to $475mm from $400mm at the launch and at the tightest side of guidance.
  • The average spread from IPTs and/or guidance thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 8 IG Corporate-only new issues was <17.69> bps.
  • BAML’s IG Master Index was unchanged at +122.  +106 represents the post-Crisis low dating back to July 2007.
  • Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS widened 1 bp tp +117 vs. +116.
  • Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread tightened 1 bp to +163 vs. +164.  The +140 reached on July 30th 2014 represents the post-Crisis low.
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $15.2b on Friday versus $20.2b on Thursday and $15.6b the previous Friday.
  • The 10-DMA stands at $18.9b.

 

Global Market Recap

 

  • U.S. Treasuries – Positive start to the week. Seasonals favor a late March rally.
  • Overseas Bonds – Bunds & Gilts little changed. Peripheral bonds mostly better.
  • 3mth Libor – Set at the highest yield (1.15622%) since April 2009.
  • Stocks – U.S. was better in the morning but sold off in the afternoon.
  • Overseas Stocks – Asia closed with gains while Europe closed with losses.
  • Economic – Light calendar this week in the U.S. Germany PPI YoY at high since 2011.
  • Currencies  – USD mixed vs. Big 5 & the DXY Index closed with a very small gain.
  • Commodities – Crude oil, copper & wheat closed down while the CRB & gold were up.
  • CDX IG – closed at 68.43 (6mth roll was today).
  • CDX HY – closed at 326.39 (6mth roll was today).
  • CDX EM – closed at 214.78 (6mth roll was today).

*CDX levels are as of 3:30PM ET today.

-Tony Farren

 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and March

 

IG Corporate New Issuance This Week
3/20-3/24
vs. Current
WTD – $4.625b
March 2017
Forecasts
vs. Current
MTD – $93.098b
Low-End Avg. $24.92b 18.56% $113.79b 81.82%
Midpoint Avg. $25.65b 18.03% $114.31b 81.44%
High-End Avg. $26.38b 17.53% $114.83b 81.07%
The Low $20b 23.12% $80b 116.37%
The High $35b 13.21% $140b 66.50%

Below please find my synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary from today’s debt capital markets, including the investment grade corporate bond data drill down as seen from my seat here in Syndicate, Sales and DCM.
Have a great evening!
Ron Quigley

 

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

Above is the opening extract from Quigley’s Corner aka “QC”  Monday Mar 20 2017 edition distributed via email to institutional investment managers and Fortune Treasury clients of Mischler Financial Group, the investment industry’s oldest minority broker-dealer owned and operated by Service-Disabled Veterans.

Cited by Wall Street Letter in each of 2014, 2015 and 2016 for “Best Research / Broker-Dealer”, the QC observations is one of three distinctive research content pieces produced by Mischler Financial Group. The QC is a daily synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary as seen from the perch of our fixed income trading and debt capital markets desk and includes a comprehensive “deep dive” with optics on the day’s investment grade corporate debt new issuance and secondary market data encompassing among other items, comparables, investment grade credit spreads, new issue activity, secondary market most active issues, and upcoming pipeline.

To receive Quigley’s Corner, please email: rkarr@mischlerfinancial.com or via phone 203.276.6646

*Sources: Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, Bloomberg, Bond Radar, Dow Jones Newswire, IFR, Informa Global Markets, Internal Mischler, LCDNews, Market News International, Prospect News, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, S, Thomson Reuters and of course, a career of sources, contacts, movers and shakers from syndicate desks to accounts; from issuers to originators; from academicians to heads of research, and a host of financial journalists, et al.

Mischler Financial Group’s “U.S. Syndicate Closing Commentary”  is produced weekly by Mischler Financial Group. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner without the permission of Mischler Financial Group. Although the statements of fact have been obtained from and are based upon sources Mischler Financial Group believes reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete.  All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to change without notice.  This report is for informational purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security.   Veteran-owned broker-dealer Mischler Financial Group, its affiliates and their respective officers, directors, partners and employees, including persons involved in the preparation of this report, may from time to time maintain a long or short position in, or purchase or sell a position in, hold or act as market-makers or advisors or brokers in relation to the securities (or related securities, financial products, options, warrants, rights, or derivatives), of companies mentioned in this report or be represented on the board of such companies. Neither Mischler Financial Group nor any officer or employee of Mischler Financial Group or any affiliate thereof accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential damages or losses arising from any use of this report or its contents.