US Corporate Debt Issuers Return From Sidelines; USD 10b Floated
March 29, 2017   //   by Mischler MarCom   //   Debt Market Commentary  

Quigley’s Corner 03.28.17   They’re Back! US Corporate Debt Issuers Return After Multi-Day No-Go Signal

 

Investment Grade Corporate Debt New Issue Re-Cap – What a Difference a Day Makes

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

Global Market Recap

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and March

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

New Issues Priced

Indexes and New Issue Volume

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending March 22nd       

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

IG Credit Spreads by Industry

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

Tomorrow’s Calendar

 

7 IG Corporate issuers tapped the IG dollar DCM today pricing 15 tranches between them totaling $10.90b.  1 SSA issuer, the Export Development of Canada, added a $500mm 2-year to the mix for an all-in IG day total of 8 issuers, 16 tranches and $11.40b.

  • The IG Corporate only WTD total is now 43% of the syndicate midpoint average forecast or $11.40b vs. $26.50b.
  • MTD, today we officially surpassed the high-, mid-point and low-end averages for March.  We are more than 4% above the IG Corporate mid-range syndicate projection for all of March or $119.248b vs. $114.31b. (scroll to the table below).
  • The all-in MTD total (IG Corporates plus SSA) now stands at $152.158b.
  • Both CDX IG and HV tightened, the VIX also pulled 1 point and the S&P and DOW gained ending an 8 day losing streak – the most since 20011.

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

 

  • Ford Motor Credit Corp. today dropped the 2yr FRN tranche from its 2- and 5-year FXD/FRN having found sufficient 2yr interest in the fixed rate tranche. The other 3 tranches all launched at the tightest side of guidance.
  • The average spread from IPTs and/or guidance thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 15 IG Corporate-only new issues was <20.87> bps.
  • BAML’s IG Master Index was unchanged at +123.  +106 represents the post-Crisis low dating back to July 2007.
  • Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS was unchanged at 1.18.
  • Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread widened 1 bp to +165 vs. +164.  The +140 reached on July 30th 2014 represents the post-Crisis low.
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $13.9b on Monday versus $13.8b on Friday and $13.8b the previous Monday.
  • The 10-DMA stands at $17.1b.

 

Global Market Recap

 

  • U.S. Treasuries – Poor day for USTs because of stocks, supply, economic data, USD & Trump.
  • Overseas Bonds – JGB’s down except 30yr. Bunds little changed, Gilts red & peripherals bid.
  • Stocks –  Rally in U.S. stocks. The Dow snapped its 8-session losing streak.
  • Overseas Stocks – Japan rallied, China closed down & Europe had a good day.
  • Economic – Positive U.S. data with consumer confidence off the charts strong.
  • Overseas Economic – Light calendar overseas today.
  • Currencies – U.S. came roaring back today. The DXY Index improved 1/2 handle.
  • Commodities – Crude oil, copper & silver improved while gold sold off.
  • CDX IG: -0.63 to 67.17
  • CDX HY: -7.0 to 347.24
  • CDX EM: -0.23 to 213.16

*CDX levels are as of 3:30PM ET today.

-Tony Farren

 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and March

 

IG Corporate New Issuance This Week
3/27-3/31
vs. Current
WTD – $11.40b
March 2017
Forecasts
vs. Current
MTD – $119.248b
Low-End Avg. $25.25b 45.15% $113.79b 104.80%
Midpoint Avg. $26.50b 43.02% $114.31b 104.32%
High-End Avg. $27.75b 41.08% $114.83b 103.85%
The Low $15b 76.00% $80b 149.06%
The High $31b 36.77% $140b 85.18%

 
Below please find my synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary from today’s debt capital markets, including the investment grade corporate bond data drill down as seen from my seat here in Syndicate, Sales and DCM.

 

Have a great evening!
Ron Quigley, Managing Director and Head of Fixed Income Syndicate

 

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

 

Here’s a review of this week’s five key primary market driver averages for IG Corporates only through Monday’s session followed by the averages over the prior six weeks:

Above is the opening extract from Quigley’s Corner aka “QC”  Tuesday Mar 28 2017 edition distributed via email to institutional investment managers and Fortune Treasury clients of Mischler Financial Group, the investment industry’s oldest minority broker-dealer owned and operated by Service-Disabled Veterans.

Cited by Wall Street Letter in each of 2014, 2015 and 2016 for “Best Research / Broker-Dealer”, the QC observations is one of three distinctive research content pieces produced by Mischler Financial Group. The QC is a daily synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary as seen from the perch of our fixed income trading and debt capital markets desk and includes a comprehensive “deep dive” with optics on the day’s investment grade corporate debt new issuance and secondary market data encompassing among other items, comparables, investment grade credit spreads, new issue activity, secondary market most active issues, and upcoming pipeline.

To receive Quigley’s Corner, please email: rkarr@mischlerfinancial.com or via phone 203.276.6646

*Sources: Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, Bloomberg, Bond Radar, Dow Jones Newswire, IFR, Informa Global Markets, Internal Mischler, LCDNews, Market News International, Prospect News, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, S, Thomson Reuters and of course, a career of sources, contacts, movers and shakers from syndicate desks to accounts; from issuers to originators; from academicians to heads of research, and a host of financial journalists, et al.

Mischler Financial Group’s “U.S. Syndicate Closing Commentary”  is produced weekly by Mischler Financial Group. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner without the permission of Mischler Financial Group. Although the statements of fact have been obtained from and are based upon sources Mischler Financial Group believes reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete.  All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to change without notice.  This report is for informational purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security.   Veteran-owned broker-dealer Mischler Financial Group, its affiliates and their respective officers, directors, partners and employees, including persons involved in the preparation of this report, may from time to time maintain a long or short position in, or purchase or sell a position in, hold or act as market-makers or advisors or brokers in relation to the securities (or related securities, financial products, options, warrants, rights, or derivatives), of companies mentioned in this report or be represented on the board of such companies. Neither Mischler Financial Group nor any officer or employee of Mischler Financial Group or any affiliate thereof accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential damages or losses arising from any use of this report or its contents.

US Corporate Debt Issuers Return From Sidelines; USD 10b Floated