Mischler Debt Market Comment Independence Day 2017 Special Edition
July 3, 2017   //   by Mischler MarCom   //   Debt Market Commentary  

Quigley’s Corner Independence Day 2017 Special Edition-Investment Grade Debt Market Insight 

 

Fourth of July Special Edition- Mischler Debt Market Commentary

Americans Don’t Understand What It Means to Serve–by Nick Palmisciano

A Salute to Mischler’s Debt Capital Markets/Investment Banking Team | Military Veterans (SDV)

Independence Day Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap

Today’s IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

Global Market Recap

The “QC” Geopolitical Risk Monitor

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates This Week and July

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

Indexes and New Issue Volume

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending June 28th              

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

IG Credit Spreads by Industry

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline

Independence Day Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

Tomorrow’s Calendar

mischler-independence-day-dcm-comment 

 

 

 

I have written here over and over that the United States is the best story out of a lot of otherwise bad stories throughout our inextricably global-linked world economy.  Make no mistake about it, however, we are the best and the greatest nation on the face of the earth.  We should all take pause to recall that tomorrow as we take in the scents of our barbecues, the tastes of our beers and the fun in the sun of Independence Day.  The United States IS the engine that the world looks to when there are wildfires all around as there are now.  At the foot of Mt. Rushmore are bronze plaques featuring prominent quotes from each of the four Presidents whose faces are carved into granite.  My favorite is that of Theodore “Teddy” Roosevelt.

“We, here in America, hold in our hands the hopes of the worlds, the fate of the coming years; and shame and disgrace will be ours if in our eyes the light of high resolve is dimmed, if we trail in the dust the golden hopes of men.”

We have an early close today ahead of the Fourth of July.  We celebrate it once annually but we should all appreciate it 365 days a year.  As we labor in freedom, and breath freedom – the oxygen for our souls – let’s all remember the words of Elmer Davis who said, “the United States of America will forever remain the land of the free so long as it is the home of the brave.” The following very prescient letter came to me on July 3rd of 2013, It is a moving tribute to those who serve our great nation, past, present and future.  Please take a moment to read it.

 

Americans Don’t Understand What It Means to Serve by Nick Palmisciano

 

Nic Palmisciano spent six years as an infantry officer in the United States Army.  He will tell you that he’ll never hold a more important job in his lifetime than platoon leader.  He wrote this letter:

I remember the day I found out I got into West Point. My mom actually showed up in the hallway of my high school and waited for me to get out of class. She was bawling her eyes out and apologizing that she had opened up my admission letter. She wasn’t crying because it had been her dream for me to go there. She was crying because she knew how hard I’d worked to get in, how much I wanted to attend, and how much I wanted to be an infantry officer. I was going to get that opportunity.

That same day, two of my teachers took me aside and essentially told me the following: Nick, you’re a smart guy. You don’t have to join the military. You should go to college, instead.

I could easily write a tome defending West Point and the military as I did that day, explaining that USMA is an elite institution, that separate from that it is actually statistically much harder to enlist in the military than it is to get admitted to college, that serving the nation is a challenge that all able-bodied men should at least consider for a host of reasons, but I won’t.  What I will say is that when a 16-year-old kid is being told that attending West Point is going to be bad for his future then there is a dangerous disconnect in America , and entirely too many Americans have no idea what kind of burdens our military is bearing.

-In World War II, 11.2% of the nation served in its four years.

-In Vietnam, 4.3% served in its 12 years.

-Since 2001, only 0.45% of our population has served in the Global War on Terror.

These are unbelievable statistics.

Over time, fewer and fewer people have shouldered more and more of the burden and it is only getting worse.

Our troops were sent to war in Iraq by a Congress consisting of 10% veterans with only one person having a child in the military. Taxes did not increase to pay for the war.  War bonds were not sold.   Gas was not regulated. In fact, the average citizen was asked to sacrifice nothing, and has sacrificed nothing unless he has chosen to out of the goodness of his heart.  The only people who have sacrificed are the veterans and their families. The volunteers. The people who swore an oath to defend this nation.

You stand there, deployment after deployment and fight on. You’ve lost relationships, spent years of your lives in extreme conditions, years apart from kids you’ll never get back, and beaten your body in a way that even professional athletes don’t understand.

Then you come home to a nation that doesn’t understand.

They don’t understand suffering.

They don’t understand sacrifice.

They don’t understand why we fight for them.

They don’t understand that bad people exist.

They look at you like you’re a machine – like something is wrong with you. You are the misguided one — not them. When you get out, you sit in the college classrooms with political science teachers who discount your opinions on Iraq and Afghanistan because YOU WERE THERE and can’t understand the macro issues they gathered from books because of your bias. You watch TV shows where every vet has PTSD and the violent strain at that. Your Congress is debating your benefits, your retirement, and your pay, while they ask you to do more. But the amazing thing about you is that you all know this. You know your country will never pay back what you’ve given up. You know that the populace at large will never truly understand or appreciate what you have done for them. Hell, you know that in some circles, you will be thought of as less than normal for having worn the uniform. But you do it anyway.   You do what the greatest men and women of this country have done since 1775 – YOU SERVED!  Just that decision alone makes you part of an elite group.

As Winston Churchill said of World War II veterans: “Never in the field of human conflict has so much been owed by so many to so few.”

I’d like to thank the veterans who served our nation and who are an integral part of the family here at Mischler Financial Group, Inc.  Thanks in particular go out to Walt Mischler, our Founder and Chairman as well as Dean Chamberlain, CEO, who blessed this small efficient special operations fighting unit known as Mischler Financial with their Service Disabled Veteran certifications that I can safely say is the most formidable in our space.  Never have I met two more honorable, trustworthy and loyal men in this business.

A Salute to Mischler’s Debt Capital Markets Team ; Military Veterans | Wall Street Veterans

66% of our fixed income investment banking team are Service Disabled Veterans or Veterans. 

 

  • Walter Mischler, Founder and Chairman, SDV
  • Dean Chamberlain, CEO, Partner, SDV
  • Richard Tilghman, Managing Director, Public Finance
  • Jason Klinghoffer, CFA
  • Jonathan Herrick, DCM Analyst

mischler independence day 2017 debt market comment

Wishing you and your families a fabulous and safe Fourth of July!

God Bless America!
Ron Quigley, Managing Director and Head of Fixed Income Syndicate


Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap

As expected, more than 50% of market participants took off SIFMA’s early close Monday ahead of tomorrow’s Independence Day holiday and to no one’s surprise nothing priced in our IG dollar DCM and as a result, volume is 0.00% across the boards for the WTD and MTD totals.

 

  • The IG Corporate WTD total is 0.00% of this week’s syndicate midpoint average forecast or $0.00b vs. $6.44b.
  • MTD we’ve priced 0.00% of the syndicate forecast for June or $0.00b vs. $84.40b.
  • There are now 9 IG Corporate, Yankee and/or SSA new issues in the IG credit pipeline.

 

Today’s IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

 

  • BAML’s IG Master Index was unchanged at +115.  +106 represents the post-Crisis low dating back to July 2007.
  • Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS was unchanged at 1.09.
  • Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread was unchanged at +157.  The +140 reached on July 30th 2014 represents the post-Crisis low.
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $12.6b on Friday versus $17.6b on Thursday and $11.8b the previous Friday.
  • The 10-DMA stands at $16.0b.

 

Global Market Recap

 

  • S. Treasuries – Strong ISM manufacturing sent USTs reeling on the heels of hawkish Central Banks.
  • Overseas Bonds – JGB’s mostly red. EU core & semi core mixed. Peripherals bid.
  • 3mth Libor – Set at highest yield (1.30072%) since March 2009.
  • Stocks – DOW rallied (all-time high) & NASDAQ sold off.
  • Overseas Stocks – Asia had small gains while Europe had a very good day.
  • Economic – ISM manufacturing printed at high since Aug 2014.
  • Overseas Economic – China, Japan & Europe (not U.K.) with positive data.
  • Currencies – USD bounced back from a bad week last week in style.
  • Commodities – The CRB, crude oil & wheat rallies continued. Metals were hit.
  • CDX IG: -0.10 to 60.42
  • CDX HY: -2.69 to 336.19
  • CDX EM: -0.60 to 201.84

*CDX levels are as of 3:30PM ET today.

-Tony Farren

 

The “QC” Geopolitical Risk Monitor

 

Risk Level/Main Factor Geopolitical Risks
HIGH
Asian Political Tensions
·    N. Korea continues ballistic missile development, improving accuracy & distance in defiance of  G-20 protests; Lack of Chinese mediation; Recent Otto Warmbier death; U.S. sanctions certain  Chinese banks and individuals to influence PROC pressure on NOKO.
ELEVATED
BREXIT Fallout
·    U.K. PM May is on the hot seat. Macron-Merkel coalition to squeeze U.K. for all it can. Italian  domestic bank bail-out outside EU “rule of law” concern for EU stability.
CAUTION
“U.S. political gridlock”
Escalating war in Syria
·    Trump financial, healthcare, tax and infrastructure reform challenges & consensus GOP support  to pass legislation questioned/Dems lose 4 consecutive special elections

·    U.S. shoots down Syrian SU-22 that bombed SDF backed-forces; Russia warns that it suspended cooperation & will track down and shoot coalition planes west of Euphrates. Potential for escalation between the U.S. & Russia is real. Turkey, Iran, Israel loom large in this scenario.

·    U.S. Senate sanctions Iran for missile testing and supporting terrorism; also expands sanctions against Russia in 98-2 vote; Russia in expansion mode; meddling in international elections.

·    GCC Crisis as Saudis, UAB, Egypt, Bahrain & 5 others accuse Qatar of backing terrorism/ Yemen, Mauritius, Maldives, Mauritania and Maldives join in severing diplomatic ties.

·    Italian debt-to-GDP ratio is 133% – world’s 3rd highest. €17bn gov’t. bail out of two Italian banks.

·    Closing in on ISIS has also scattered it across wider MENA region and Europe.

·    Cybercrime, ransomware, viruses & hacking are winning cyber wars. The latest attack hit four continents, law firms, food companies, power grids, pharma & gov’ts (Ukraine & Russia).

·    Central banks shrinking balance sheets/higher volatility in 2H17.

MODERATE ·    China hard landing – rising corporate debt have the OECD and IMF concerned.

·    Venezuela – tumbling oil prices could impact ability to repay debt; civil unrest.

MARGINAL
2018 U.S. Recession
·    Increased chance of 2018 U.S. recession in light of recent very hawkish Fed-speak and sights

on one more rate hike in 2017.

 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates This Week and July

 

IG Corporate New Issuance This Week
7/03-7/07
vs. Current
WTD – $0.00b
July 2017
Forecasts
vs. Current
MTD – $0.00b
Low-End Avg. $5.71b 0.00% $83.87b 0.00%
Midpoint Avg. $6.44b 0.00% $84.40b 0.00%
High-End Avg. $7.17b 0.00% $84.92b 0.00%
The Low $0b 0.00% $70b 0.00%
The High $15b 0.00% $111b 0.00%

 

Below please find my synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary from today’s debt capital markets, including the investment grade corporate bond data drill down as seen from my seat here in Syndicate, Sales and DCM.

Above is the opening extract from Quigley’s Corner aka “QC”  Monday, July 03, 2017 Independence Day edition distributed via email to institutional investment managers and Fortune Treasury clients of Mischler Financial Group, the investment industry’s oldest minority broker-dealer owned and operated by Service-Disabled Veterans.

Cited by Wall Street Letter in each of 2014, 2015 and 2016 for “Best Research / Broker-Dealer”, the QC is one of three distinctive market comment pieces produced by Mischler Financial Group.The QC is a daily synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary as seen from the perch of our fixed income trading and debt capital markets desk and includes a comprehensive “deep dive” with optics on the day’s investment grade corporate debt new issuance and secondary market data encompassing among other items, comparables, investment grade credit spreads, new issue activity, secondary market most active issues, and upcoming pipeline.

To receive Quigley’s Corner, please email: rkarr@mischlerfinancial.com or via phone 203.276.6646

*Sources: Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, Bloomberg, Bond Radar, Dow Jones Newswire, IFR, Informa Global Markets, Internal Mischler, LCDNews, Market News International, Prospect News, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, S, Thomson Reuters and of course, a career of sources, contacts, movers and shakers from syndicate desks to accounts; from issuers to originators; from academicians to heads of research, and a host of financial journalists, et al.

Mischler Financial Group’s “U.S. Syndicate Closing Commentary”  is produced daily by Mischler Financial Group. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner without the permission of Mischler Financial Group. Although the statements of fact have been obtained from and are based upon sources Mischler Financial Group believes reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete.  All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to change without notice.  This report is for informational purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security.   Veteran-owned broker-dealer Mischler Financial Group, its affiliates and their respective officers, directors, partners and employees, including persons involved in the preparation of this report, may from time to time maintain a long or short position in, or purchase or sell a position in, hold or act as market-makers or advisors or brokers in relation to the securities (or related securities, financial products, options, warrants, rights, or derivatives), of companies mentioned in this report or be represented on the board of such companies. Neither Mischler Financial Group nor any officer or employee of Mischler Financial Group or any affiliate thereof accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential damages or losses arising from any use of this report or its contents.

Mischler Debt Market Comment Independence Day 2017 Special Edition