ATT Mobilizes Investment Grade Corporate Debt Market w Mega Deal
July 27, 2017   //   by Mischler MarCom   //   Debt Market Commentary  

Quigley’s Corner 07.27.17- AT&T Mobilizes Corporate Debt Market Issuance w $22.5bil 7-part deal

Below is the opening extract from Quigley’s Corner aka “QC”  Thursday July 27, 2017  edition distributed via email to institutional investment managers and Fortune Treasury clients of Mischler Financial Group, the investment industry’s oldest minority broker-dealer owned and operated by Service-Disabled Veterans.
Cited by Wall Street Letter in each of 2014, 2015 and 2016 for “Best Research / Broker-Dealer”the QC is one of three distinctive market comment pieces produced by Mischler Financial Group.The QC is a daily synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary as seen from the perch of our fixed income trading and debt capital markets desk and includes a comprehensive “deep dive” with optics on the day’s investment grade corporate debt new issuance and secondary market data encompassing among other items, comparables, investment grade credit spreads, new issue activity, secondary market most active issues, and upcoming pipeline. To receive Quigley’s Corner, please email: rkarr@mischlerfinancial.com or via phone 203.276.6646


Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap

Today’s IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

Global Market Recap

The “QC” Geopolitical Risk Monitor

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates This Week and July

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

New Issues Priced

Indexes and New Issue Volume

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending July 19th              

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

IG Credit Spreads by Industry

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline Highlights

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

Tomorrow’s Calendar

 

Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap – AT&T Prints $22.5b 7-Part –  3rd Largest Deal in IG Dollar DCM History!

ATT-Investment Grade Corporate Debt

Today’s IG Corporate dollar DCM finished with 4 issuers pricing 11 tranches between them totaling $26.00b.  The SSA space wisely stood down. Clearly, the day was all about AT&T’s mega $22.5bn 7-part SEC registered Senior Global Notes new issue.  The transaction ranks as the third largest in history behind only Verizon Communication’s $49b deal on 9/11/2013 and Anheuser Busch InBev’s $46bn 1/13/2016.  The deal is also the largest of this very prolific year-to-date thus far.  What’s more, AT&T also pushed us over the $1 trillion mark for all-in IG Corporate and SSA issuance YTD.  AT&T (A-/BBB+) agreed to buy Time Warner (Baa2/BBB+) for $85.4b.  This follows Comcast’s purchase of NBCUniversal and Verizon’s acquisition of Yahoo. Both AT&T and Time Warner boards approved the deal that now has to overcome a few regulatory hurdles.  AT&T hopes to complete the transaction by the end of 2017.  To finance the half cash, half stock deal involved AT&T taking on $40b in bridge loans prior to today’s announced deal.

 

The DJIA closed at another all-time high at 21,796 up 85 points.

Here’s how this week’s IG Corporate volume numbers measure up against the WTD and MTD syndicate estimates:

 

  • The IG Corporate WTD total is 151.38% of this week’s syndicate midpoint average forecast or $36.30b vs. $23.98b.
  • MTD we’ve priced 135.00% of the syndicate forecast for July or $113.94b vs. $84.40b.
  • There are now 4 issuers in the IG credit pipeline.

Today’s IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

  • The average spread compression from IPTs and/or guidance thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 11 IG Corporate-only new issues, excluding HIS, was <19.14> bps.
  • The average spreads across 3 of the 19 industry sectors tied their post-Crisis lows.
  • BAML’s IG Master Index was unchanged at +108.  +106 represents the post-Crisis low dating back to July 2007.
  • Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS was unchanged at +103.
  • Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread widened 1 bp to +151 vs. +150.  The +140 reached on July 30th 2014 represents the post-Crisis low.
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $20.4b on Wednesday versus $19.2b on Tuesday and $19.6b the previous Wednesday.
  • The 10-DMA stands at $16.5b.

 

Global Market Recap

 

  • S. Treasuries – 3rd losing session out of 4 this week. 30yr lagged on the curve again
  • Overseas Bonds – JGB’s, Bunds & Gilts closed with gains.
  • Stocks – In the morning reached all-time highs but then sold off in the afternoon.
  • Overseas Stocks – Asia closed with gains. Europe had more red than green.
  • Economic – U.S. data had more good than bad. First look at Q2 GDP tomorrow.
  • Overseas Economic – Light calendar today but that will not be the case tomorrow.
  • Currencies – USD started weak overnight but traded with a bid during NY hours.
  • Commodities – Another good day for the commodities market despite the better USD.
  • CDX IG: +0.94 to 57.45
  • CDX HY: +2.95 to 321.11
  • CDX EM: +0.79 to 192.70

*CDX levels are as of 3:30PM ET today.

-Tony Farren

 

The “QC” Geopolitical Risk Monitor

 

Risk Level/Main Factor Geopolitical Risks
HIGH
Asian Political Tensions
·    N. Korea launches ICBM on July 4th. Continues development, improving accuracy & distance in defiance of G-20 protests; Lack of Chinese mediation; U.S. sanctions select Chinese banks and  individuals to influence PRC pressure on North Korea; UN projects worst famine in NOKO in 17 yrs; last one killed 2mm (8% of population).  Fear that NOKO may use nuclear intel/systems as barter for food w/”suspect” nations.
ELEVATED
BREXIT Fallout
·    U.K. PM May is on the hot seat. Macron-Merkel coalition to squeeze U.K. for all it can. France pressing for $115b equivalent.
CAUTION
“U.S. political gridlock”
·    Trump financial, healthcare, tax and infrastructure reform challenges & consensus GOP support to pass legislation questioned; Mueller expanding FBI probe into Trump.

·    U.S. Senate sanctions Iran for missile testing and supporting terrorism; also expands sanctions against Russia in 98-2 vote. Russia in expansion mode.

·    GCC Crisis as Saudis, UAB, Egypt, Bahrain & 5 others cut diplomatic ties with Qatar; Land, air

and sea blockade. Demands include closing its Al Jazeera network & a Turkish military base, severing ties w/Muslim Brotherhood, Hezbollah, al-Qaeda & ISIS.

·    Italian debt-to-GDP ratio is 133% – world’s 3rd highest.

·    Despite destroying the Caliphate, ISIS will be scattered across a wider MENA region and Europe.

·    Cybercrime, ransomware, viruses & hacking are winning cyber wars. The latest attack hit four continents, law firms, food companies, power grids, pharma & gov’ts (Ukraine & Russia).

·    Central banks shrinking balance sheets/higher volatility in 2H17; ECB dovishness; low rates persist.

·    Renewed tensions along the India-Pakistan cease fire line dividing Indian-controlled Kashmir.

MODERATE ·    China hard landing – rising corporate debt have the OECD and IMF concerned.

·    Venezuela – low oil prices/Maduro resistance impacting ability to repay debt; civil unrest.

MARGINAL
2018 U.S. Recession
·    Increased chance of 2018 U.S. recession in light of recent very hawkish Fed-speak?; “Maybe” one more rate hike in 2017; lack of inflation and $4.5 trillion balance sheet unwind are concerns.

 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates This Week and July

 

IG Corporate New Issuance This Week
7/24-7/28
vs. Current
WTD – $36.30b
July 2017
Forecasts
vs. Current
MTD – $113.94b
Low-End Avg. $23.52b 154.34% $83.87b 135.85%
Midpoint Avg. $23.98b 151.38% $84.40b 135.00%
High-End Avg. $24.71b 146.90% $84.92b 134.17%
The Low $15b 242.00% $70b 162.77%
The High $40b 90.75% $111b 102.65%

 

AT&T Corp. $22.5b 7-Part Deal Dashboard

Mischler was once again proud and honored to serve as an active Co-Manager on today’s behemoth AT&T 7-part.

 

Today’s 7 tranches posted a cumulative average spread contraction of <18.43> bps through price evolution or from IPTs to the launch and final pricing.

Here’s a look at how it all evolved:

 

ATT Issue IPTs GUIDANCE LAUNCH PRICED Spread
Compression
NICs
(bps)
5.5yr FRN 3mL+113a 3mL+94a (+/-5) 3mL+89 3mL+89 <24> bps 15
5.5 yr FXD +125a +105a (+/-5) +100 +100 <25> bps 15
7yr FXD +150a +135a (+/-5) +130 +130 <20> bps 12
10yr FXD +175a +165a (+/-5) +160 +160 <15> bps 9
20yr FXD +215a +205a (+/-5) +200 +200 <15> bps 1
32.5yr FXD +240a +230a (+/-5) +225 +225 <15> bps <7>
41yr FXD +255a +245a (+/-5) +240 +240 <15> bps <7>

 

..here’s a look at final book sizes and over-subscription rates that amounted to $58.5b for an overall bid-to-cover rate of 2.60x:

 

AT&T Issue Tranche Size Final Book
Size
Bid-to-Cover
Rate
5.5yr FRN $750mm $3.2bn 4.27x
5.5yr FXD $1.75bn $5.8bn 3.31x
7yr FXD $3bn $8.3bn 2.77x
10yr FXD $5bn $12.4bn 2.48x
20yr FXD $4.5b $10.4bn 2.31x
32.5yr FXD $5b $11.1bn 2.22x
41yr FXD $2.5b $7.3bn 2.92x

 

A Look at How AT&T Supports Our Veterans

 

First, let’s make it clear to everyone that AT&T understands that members of the military and their families make great sacrifices for our great nation and often confront unique challenges during periods of deployment and throughout their return to civilian life. AT&T understands that corporations have an important role to play in supporting our veterans.  So, for nearly 100 years – that’s right – a century – AT&T has remained dedicated to supporting military personnel, veterans and their families.  Our nation’s service men and women make sacrifices to protect our country and our freedoms. AT&T understands that is their honor to support them at home and abroad.  Moreover, military veterans possess the skills and experience it needs to succeed as a company and knows they are an invaluable part of its work force.  For that all of us here at Mischler Financial send out a five-star salute to AT&T from the top down and especially today to the entirety of its Treasury/Funding team that carved out another memorable place in our IG dollar Debt Capital Markets history with today’s $22.5 billion seven-part transaction.

Some of the Ways that AT&T Supports Our Nation’s Veterans –

 

Recruiting and Hiring Military Veterans

AT&T integrated veteran recruitment into its business practices for years. The Company focuses on recruiting veterans not only because it’s the right thing to do, but also because it’s good for its business. In the past few years, AT&T enhanced its military recruitment programs by increasing their promotion of AT&T as an employer of choice within the veteran community. That includes maintaining a Military Talent Attraction Program Manager to inform the military about AT&T and educate AT&T managers about the military.

Online Tools and Resources

AT&T understands that the job search and application process at large companies can be challenging for anyone — and even more so for veterans. Therefore, it created online tools, resources and checkpoints to optimize success through its recruitment process, such as:

  • A military-focused career site: att.jobs/military
  • A Military Skills Translator Tool that allows veterans to use their current Military Occupation Code or Military Occupation Specialty to identify civilian jobs at AT&T that may be a good fit for them: http://att-veterans.jobs/
  • The Careers for Veterans program, which is designed to support veterans moving into civilian life by providing career advice and insight on AT&T jobs: http://veterans.att.jobs
  • An AT&T Military Timeline to help guide veterans step-by-step through their transition to the civilian/corporate workforce
  • A career page for military spouses highlighting work locations that provides portable, flexible jobs: att.jobs/milspouse

 

Stepping up AT&T’s Hiring Commitment

AT&T actively focuses on recruiting veterans into career paths because the experience and skills gained through military service are an invaluable contribution to its workforce.

In 2013, AT&T announced a commitment to hire 10,000 veterans over the course of the next 5 years. That’s a commitment that was reached in 2015 – well ahead of schedule. In May of 2016, AT&T announced that it would double its original commitment by hiring an additional 10,000 veterans – for a total of 20,000 – by 2020.

AT&T is also a founding member of the Veteran Jobs Mission, launched in 2011 by JPMorgan Chase & Co. and 10 other companies to commit to hiring 100,000 veterans by 2020. Since then, the coalition has grown to more than 230 private-sector companies that represent almost every industry in the U.S. economy. Collectively, members have hired more than 395,261 veterans since 2011.

Once veterans are hired, AT&T helps ensure they have the skills needed to grow their careers and succeed as employees in the ever-evolving technology landscape.

Veteran Employee Resource Group

The AT&T Veterans employee resource group (ERG) was founded in 1983 and now serves more than 10,200 members in 40 chapters across the U.S. It’s an independent organization of AT&T employees and retirees dedicated to serving the veteran and active military community.

The ERG creates an instant community for veterans joining the company and involves them in outreach, philanthropy and volunteer opportunities – including ways to refer fellow veterans for jobs at AT&T. Members of this ERG serve as career ambassadors and represent AT&T at veteran career events.

At AT&T’s 8th annual National ERG Conference in September 2016, the AT&T Veterans-Washington State chapter was recognized for its Operation Santa program, which supports homeless vets and those in VA hospitals and retirement homes during the holidays.

 

2016 AT&T Awards and Recognition’s Include:

 

  • Ranked No. 5 on Diversity Inc’s Top 10 Companies for Veterans list
  • Ranked No. 24 on G.I. Jobs/Victory Media’s Top 100 Military Friendly Employers list
  • Ranked No. 44 on G.I. Jobs/Victory Media’s Top 100 Military Spouse Friendly Employers list
  • Ranked No. 44 on Military Times’ Best for Veterans Employer list
  • Named to US Veterans magazine’s Best of the Best – Top 10 Veteran-Friendly Companies list
  • Named to US Veterans magazine’s Top 10 Supplier Diversity Programs list

 

AT&T’s Support for Organizations Include:

 

Blue Star Families

AT&T supports veterans and military families through many financial contributions, programs and collaborations with organizations dedicated to service men and women. AT&T supports Blue Star Families at their networking events for military spouses and in their mission to honor and empower military families through no-cost programs available to members nationwide.

Cell Phone for Soldiers
AT&T has a long-standing mission to connect members of our nation’s military with their loved ones back home. Initiated in 2004, and expanded through financial support from AT&T, Cell Phones for Soldiers is a non-profit that uses funds from recycled cell phones to buy prepaid phone cards for our service men and women, helping them connect with their families.

Supporting Veteran-Owned Business

Since 1968, the AT&T Global Supplier Diversity organization has connected certified diverse service-disabled veteran-, minority-, women-owned business enterprises with opportunities to provide products and services to AT&T around the world. AT&T is committed to working with veteran-owned suppliers through its mentoring programs.

 

AT&T Scholarship Programs
In 2016, AT&T continued to offer executive-level scholarships to diverse suppliers, including veterans, as part of its commitment to provide educational support to diverse-owned businesses. Five scholarships were awarded nationally to diverse-owned business representatives to attend an executive training class.  Classes were offered through the following programs:

  • The Advance Management Education Program (provided by National Minority Supplier Development Council)
  • Building a High Performing Minority Business Program (provided by Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth
  • Tuck-WBENC Executive Program (provided by Women’s Business Enterprise National Council)

 

The AT&T Business Growth Acceleration Program
The AT&T Business Growth Acceleration Program provides mentorship to a select group of qualified business leaders, including veterans. The program focuses on improving participants’ business operations and enhancing their abilities to win corporate contracts. The practical, hands-on learning approach enables each participant to immediately apply concepts learned to their individual business challenges. During 2016, the program was led by the John F. Kennedy Institute of Entrepreneurial Leadership and there were 12 graduates from this AT&T-sponsored JFK University Business Growth Acceleration Program.

Additionally,

  • Through the full year ending 2016, AT&T’s spend with service disabled veteran-, veteran-, minority and women-owned business enterprises firms, among others, was $14.2bn.
  • AT&T’s percent of total spend with service disabled veteran-, veteran-, minority and women-owned business enterprises is 83%.

That is a great story about some of the wonderful things Corporate America’s AT&T is doing for our veterans. It’s a story that needs to be told to Main Street U.S.A. I’ll always do my part to get Corporate America’s story out there.  The next deal could by YOUR deal and YOUR story. Today, however, belonged to AT&T. Thank you AT&T from the top down. Thank you also to JPM, BAML, GS, Mizuho and MUFG Syndicate for working with us today.

 

Have a great evening!

Ron Quigley, Managing Director and Head of Fixed Income Syndicate

 

Below please find my synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary from today’s debt capital markets, including the investment grade corporate bond data drill down as seen from my seat here in Syndicate, Sales and DCM.

Above is the opening extract from Quigley’s Corner aka “QC”  Thursday July 27, 2017  edition distributed via email to institutional investment managers and Fortune Treasury clients of Mischler Financial Group, the investment industry’s oldest minority broker-dealer owned and operated by Service-Disabled Veterans.

Cited by Wall Street Letter in each of 2014, 2015 and 2016 for “Best Research / Broker-Dealer”the QC is one of three distinctive market comment pieces produced by Mischler Financial Group.The QC is a daily synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary as seen from the perch of our fixed income trading and debt capital markets desk and includes a comprehensive “deep dive” with optics on the day’s investment grade corporate debt new issuance and secondary market data encompassing among other items, comparables, investment grade credit spreads, new issue activity, secondary market most active issues, and upcoming pipeline. To receive Quigley’s Corner, please email: rkarr@mischlerfinancial.com or via phone 203.276.6646

*Sources: Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, Bloomberg, Bond Radar, Dow Jones Newswire, IFR, Informa Global Markets, Internal Mischler, LCDNews, Market News International, Prospect News, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, S, Thomson Reuters and of course, a career of sources, contacts, movers and shakers from syndicate desks to accounts; from issuers to originators; from academicians to heads of research, and a host of financial journalists, et al.

Mischler Financial Group’s “U.S. Syndicate Closing Commentary”  is produced daily by Mischler Financial Group. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner without the permission of Mischler Financial Group. Although the statements of fact have been obtained from and are based upon sources Mischler Financial Group believes reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete.  All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to change without notice.  This report is for informational purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security.   Veteran-owned broker-dealer Mischler Financial Group, its affiliates and their respective officers, directors, partners and employees, including persons involved in the preparation of this report, may from time to time maintain a long or short position in, or purchase or sell a position in, hold or act as market-makers or advisors or brokers in relation to the securities (or related securities, financial products, options, warrants, rights, or derivatives), of companies mentioned in this report or be represented on the board of such companies. Neither Mischler Financial Group nor any officer or employee of Mischler Financial Group or any affiliate thereof accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential damages or losses arising from any use of this report or its contents.

AT&T Mobilizes Corporate Debt Market Issuance w $22.5bil 7-part deal