Investment Grade Corporate Bond-New Issue Re-Cap
October 17, 2017   //   by Mischler MarCom   //   Debt Market Commentary  

Quigley’s Corner 10.17.17 – Debt Market Commentary; Investment Grade Corporate Bond-New Issue Re-Cap

Investment Grade US Corporate Debt New Issue Re-Cap 

Today’s IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

Global Market Recap

The “QC” Geopolitical Risk Monitor

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates For This Week and October

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

New Issues Priced

Indexes and New Issue Volume

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending October 11th

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

IG Credit Spreads by Industry

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline Highlights

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

 

Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap

Today the IG dollar DCM hosted 3 issuers across 5 tranches totaling $3.65b.  The SSA space featured 3 issuers and 3 tranches for $4.50b bringing the all-in IG day totals to 6 issuers, 8 tranches and $8.15b.

Here’s how this week’s IG Corporate volume numbers measure up against the WTD and MTD syndicate estimates:

  • The IG Corporate WTD total is 22.38% of this week’s syndicate midpoint average forecast or $5.65b vs. $25.25b.
  • MTD we’ve priced 57.60% of the syndicate forecast for October IG Corporate new issuance or $52.804b vs. $91.68b.
  • There are now 8 issuers in the IG credit pipeline.

Today’s IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

  • Hospitality Properties Trust increased its 10-year Senior Notes new issue to $400mm from $300mm at the launch and at the tightest side of guidance.
  • Pacific Life Insurance Co. upsized its 50nc30 fixed-to-floating subordinated surplus notes new issue today to $750mm from $500mm at the launch.
  • The average spread compression from IPTs and/or guidance thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 5 IG Corporate-only new issues was <18.00> bps.
  • BAML’s IG Master Index tightened 1bp to +103 vs. +104 tying its post-Crisis low set on 10/06.
  • Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS was unchanged at 0.98.
  • Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread tightened 2bps to +146 vs. +148.  The +140 reached on July 30th 2014 represents the post-Crisis low.
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $14.3b on Thursday versus $13.8b on Friday.
  • The 10-DMA stands at $15.9b.

Global Market Recap 

  • U.S. Treasuries – Closed mixed & flatter. Yields & curve at levels not seen in many years.
  • Overseas Bonds – JGB’s unchanged to down. Gilts rallied 4-6 bps despite higher CPI.
  • Stocks – Unchanged (NASDAQ) to higher. S&P’s and Dow traded at all-time highs.
  • Overseas Stocks – Nikkei 21 year high. China closed mixed. Europe had a down day.
  • Economic – Import prices index higher. IP, Cap U & MP nothing special but NAHB was strong.
  • Overseas Economic – U.K. CPI YoY reached 3.0% – the highest since 2012.
  • Currencies – The USD outperformed 4 of the Big 5 & the 5th was unchanged (¥en).
  • Commodities – Energy small gains. Gold, copper & silver traded poorly.
  • CDX IG: -0.09 to 54.15
  • CDX HY: -1.70 316.16
  • CDX EM: -1.30 to 176.21

*CDX levels are as of 3:30PM ET today.

-Tony Farren

 

The “QC” Geopolitical Risk Monitor

 

Risk Level/Main Factor Geopolitical Risks
HIGH
North Korea
10/16 – EU imposes total ban on oil & petroleum to NOKO. 10/6 – Russian news announces NOKO is preparing to test fire a missile capable of reaching the U.S. Coast. Recall Trump’s “calm before the storm” comment.  NOKO rumored to reach out to GOP to help “figure out Trump.” On 9/24 Trump warns NOKO leadership that if rhetorical threats continue its leaders “won’t be around much longer.” NOKO claims comment is an “Act of War” and that it now has the right to shoot down U.S. bombers “even outside of NOKO air space.” Beijing calls situation “grave.” On 9/19 Trump spoke before UN referring to Kim as “Rocket Man on a suicide mission.” Says if Kim continues to threaten the U.S., allies and the world “we will have no choice but to totally destroy North Korea.”
ELEVATED
“The EU”
Germany’s Angela Merkel re-elected to her 4th term but nationalist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party & other right wing parties gain to force a 6-party coalition government.  Worst performance for Merkel’s CDU and Christian Social Union party since 1949.  Immigration a source of tension. Right wing has a seat in German decision-making.

EU and Macron-Merkel coalition to squeeze U.K. re: BREXIT “divorce” bill. Companies prepping for messy BREXIT & 2 years of weak growth. EU wants UK to pay exit bill before any negotiations. UK withdrawal from EU takes place in 3/2019. Moody’s downgraded the UK on 9/22 to Aa2 from Aa1.

CAUTION
“U.S. political gridlock”
31 year old conservative Sebastian Kurz becomes the world’s youngest leader winning Austria’s Presidential election. He is expected to form a coalition with the resurgent far right anti-immigration party or Freedom Party. (See the “QC” dated 11-18-2015 and 11-30-2016).

10/16 – Catalonian Pres. Puigdemont defended right to claim to independence. Spain’s Pres. Rajoy can use Article 155 to suspend the Catalan gov’t. and take over in days. If not, Puigdemont’s diverse coalition may fall apart. Results of Catalonia’s Oct. 1st independence referendum vote posted 90% support for secession from Spain. National riot police cracked down at the voting booths injuring ~900 voters in the EU nation’s worst crisis in 40+ years since turning to democracy.

Steve Bannon’s war on the GOP’s “imperialist” political class targets Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell among others to unite Republicans behind Trump to get things done in Washington.

GOP tax overhaul plan would double deduction and create 3 tax brackets vs. 7. Bringing Corporate rate to 20% might return trillions of dollars to the U.S. that corps are keeping overseas.  Consensus GOP support to pass legislation still in doubt. Partisan politics.

Central banks shrinking balance sheets/higher volatility; low rates persist; slow inflation pick-up. On 9/26 Yellen admitted Fed inflation model may have been “mispecified” & “misguided.”

October MTD Terror Stats: Despite destroying the Caliphate, ISIS is now scattered across a wider MENA region and Europe. October MTD thru 10/16 – there were 43 terrorist attacks. Killing 541 people and wounding 638.

Cybercrime, ransomware, viruses & hacking are winning cyber wars. Recent attacks have hit four continents, law firms, food companies, power grids, pharma and governments.

Venezuela – civil unrest continues against Maduro dictatorship. U.S. Tsy freezes Maduro family assets. Risk of VZ default.  4th largest exporter of oil to U.S. behind Canada (#1), Saudi Arabia (#2) & Mexico (#3). Economy sliding into abyss. Regional immigration issue w/many fleeing elsewhere.

MODERATE
“China”
China hard landing: rising corporate debt & slower GDP growth are OECD and IMF concerns. National Congress of the Chinese Communists Party held on Oct. 18th. Most decisions are made prior to it but it’s historically pivotal regarding leadership changes & reshuffling as elders retire.

Venezuela – Maduro dictatorship firmly in control. U.S. Tsy freezes Maduro family assets. Risk of VZ default. Isolated by int’l community. 4th largest exporter of oil to U.S. behind Canada (#1), Saudi Arabia (#2) & Mexico (#3). Economy sliding into abyss. Regional immigration issue w/many continuing to flee abroad. Increased domestic crime.

MARGINAL
“More about monetary policy than recession”
Fed signals 1 more rate hike in 2017; 3 in 2018. Dot plots unchanged for 2017 & ’18; lower for ’19 & longer-term. Hurricane’s Harvey, Irma and Maria appearing in economic data; “could” push hike to 2018. $4.5 trln b/s unwind begins at Oct. 31st mtg & absence of inflation are concerns. Bullish corp. cdt. forecast for 20yr maturities and out; widening front end spreads ahead; optimism re: tax reform could mean return to US of $1trln currently offshore.  Issuers not so worried about rates. . Shifts/adjustments in monetary policy are more of a concern than chance of a 2018 recession.

 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates For This Week and October

 

IG Corporate New Issuance This Week
10/16-10/20
vs. Current
WTD – $5.65b
October 2017 vs. Current
MTD – $52.804b
Low-End Avg. $24.21b 23.34% $90.96b 58.05%
Midpoint Avg. $25.25b 22.38% $91.68b 57.60%
High-End Avg. $26.29b 21.49% $92.42b 57.13%
The Low $15b 37.67% $110b 48.00%
The High $36b 15.69% $75b 70.41%

 

Have a great evening!

Ron Quigley, Managing Director and Head of Fixed Income Syndicate

 

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

Here’s a review of this week’s five key primary market driver averages for IG Corporates only through Monday’s session followed by the averages over the prior six weeks:

KEY IG CORPORATE
NEW ISSUE DRIVERS
MON.
10/16
AVERAGES
WEEK 10/09
AVERAGES
WEEK 10/02
AVERAGES
WEEK 8/25
AVERAGES
WEEK 8/18
AVERAGES
WEEK 9/11
AVERAGES
WEEK 9/05
New Issue Concessions 0.00 bps <0.38> bps 1.18 bps 1.38 bps 0.62 bps 1.40 bps 2.12 bps
Oversubscription Rates 2.05x 3.03x 3.50x 3.31x 3.18x 3.27x 2.70x
Tenors 20.00 yrs 9.77 yrs 12.00 yrs 8.50 yrs 8.21 yrs 9.84 yrs 11.10 yrs
Tranche Sizes $1,000mm $906mm $608mm $645mm $483mm $674mm $731mm
Avg. Spd. Compression
IPTs to Launch
<15.00> bps <19.81> bps <18.40> bps <20.19> yrs <18.40> bps <18.91> bps <16.80> yrs

 

New Issues Priced

Above is the opening extract from Quigley’s Corner aka “QC”  Tuesday, Oct 11 edition distributed via email to institutional investment managers and Fortune Treasury clients of Mischler Financial Group, the investment industry’s oldest minority broker-dealer owned and operated by Service-Disabled Veterans.

Cited by Wall Street Letter in each of 2014, 2015 and 2016 for “Best Research / Broker-Dealer”, the QC is one of three distinctive market comment pieces produced by Mischler Financial Group.The QC is a daily synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary as seen from the perch of our fixed income trading and debt capital markets desk and includes a comprehensive “deep dive” with optics on the day’s investment grade corporate debt new issuance and secondary market data encompassing among other items, comparables, investment grade credit spreads, new issue activity, secondary market most active issues, and upcoming pipeline.

To receive Quigley’s Corner, please email: rkarr@mischlerfinancial.com or via phone 203.276.6646

*Sources: Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, Bloomberg, Bond Radar, Dow Jones Newswire, IFR, Informa Global Markets, Internal Mischler, LCDNews, Market News International, Prospect News, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, S, Thomson Reuters and of course, a career of sources, contacts, movers and shakers from syndicate desks to accounts; from issuers to originators; from academicians to heads of research, and a host of financial journalists, et al.

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Investment Grade Corporate Bond-New Issue Re-Cap