Browsing articles tagged with "FIG Archives - Mischler Financial Group"
Investment Grade Debt New Issuance: FIG Heaven
December 2017      Debt Market Commentary   

Quigley’s Corner 12.18.17  FIG Heaven – Make Reservations Now for January Seating

 

Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap – 2017 Sets Two All-Time Volume Records

Looking Ahead to Potential FIG Issuance in January 2018

Today’s IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates For This Week, December & January 2018

Global Market Recap

The “QC” Geopolitical Risk Monitor

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

Indexes and New Issue Volume              

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending December 13th

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

IG Credit Spreads by Industry

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline Highlights

Rates Trading Lab

Economic Data Releases

Tomorrow’s Calendar 

Below is the opening extract from Quigley’s Corner aka “QC”  Monday December 18 2017 edition distributed via email to institutional investment managers and Fortune Treasury clients of Mischler Financial Group, the investment industry’s oldest minority broker-dealer owned and operated by Service-Disabled Veterans.

Cited by Wall Street Letter in each of 2014, 2015 and 2016 for “Best Research / Broker-Dealer”, the QC is one of three distinctive market comment pieces produced by Mischler Financial Group. The QC is a daily synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary as seen from the perch of our fixed income trading and debt capital markets desk and includes a comprehensive “deep dive” with optics on the day’s investment grade corporate debt new issuance and secondary market data encompassing among other items, comparables, investment grade credit spreads, new issue activity, secondary market most active issues, and upcoming pipeline.

Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap
IG Corporate and SSA new issuance posted another shut-out today.  However, even if we get no new supply for the remainder of this year, 2017 already won out as the highest volume year on record for both IG Corporate and all-in IG Corporate + SSA new issuance.  This year’s IG Corporate total beat last year by $48.138b or 3.75% more while all-in volume beat by $23.595b or 1.45%.  Congratulations to all the issuers, bankers, syndicate desks and accounts that made it possible.

Taking a look at the prior six years, each year’s total volume surpassed the prior in both categories:

Year IG Corporates (bn) IG Corps + SSA (bn)
2017 $1,333.355 $1,648.746
2016 $1,285.217 $1,625.151
2015 $1,268.448 $1,512.838
2014 $1,129.33 $1,367.97
2013 $1,051.19 $1,334.76
2012 $1,025.31 $1,254.33

 

It’ll be tough to do this again next year though as the call is for a 10% reduction in 2018 IG Corporate issuance should the new tax reform bill be signed law and the subsequent repatriation of billions of dollars of offshore funds combining with a new and improved 21% corporate tax.

NAHB Housing was the lone piece of economic data today and it surprised to upside in a big way posting a 74 from 70 expectations and a 69 prior reading. That’s an 18-year high! It’s a strong market for homebuyers with national home prices up about 6% YoY.  With strong labor and an improving economy, the outlook is good for home real estate sales.

Looking Ahead to Potential FIG Issuance in January 2018

Next up, I guess we were all a bit stymied by today’s zero issuance activity. But some good souls out there turned it into an opportunity to get creative and work on things they might otherwise not have the time to. So, without further ado, I decided to re-print (with permission of course) a very interesting and informative piece written by none other than Bob Elson. Many of you with Bloomberg terminals may know Bob.  Most everyone in syndicate does.  For the following piece, Bob did the heavy-lifting on what to expect from the big banks or the U.S. six-pack as we roll into the new year.  Not bad for an old dog who remembers when the T30 14% due 2011 traded at a discount.  Given the aforementioned Oscar lead in who else to better give a shout out than Bob Elson who has been “Bond Salesman to the Stars since 1971?”  They don’t make’em like they used to folks and he/they are a class act.

Take it away Bobby E. –

The Large Banks Have January Maturities, They Have a History of January Issuance and for Some, Strikingly Large 2018 Maturities:

Bank of America has $3b maturing Jan. 11

  • Jan. 17, 2017: priced $6.75b in 4 parts
  • Issued in Dec. 2015, rather than Jan. 2016
  • Jan. 16, 2015: priced $2.5b
  • Jan. 15, 2014: priced $4.5b in 2 parts
  • Jan. 8, 2013: 3 tranche deal totaling $8.25b
  • Jan. 19, 2012: $2.25b 10Y
  • Hasn’t been seen since Sept.
  • Has near $28b of 2018 maturities, by far the largest year in its debt distribution
  • Scheduled to announce earning Jan. 17

Citigroup has near $25b maturing in the new year, the largest in its debt distribution

  • Jan. 4, 2017: priced 3-part deal for $5.25b; this was prior to announcing earnings Jan. 18
  • Jan. 5, 2016: priced $2b 10Y; prior to earnings Jan. 15
  • Jan. 29, 2015: priced $2.5b 3Y after announcing earnings Jan. 15
  • Jan. 3, 2013: priced $1.75b 3Y prior to its Jan. 17 earnings
  • Jan. 19, 2012: priced $1b 30Y following its Jan. 17 earnings release
  • Citi will announce earnings Jan. 16

Goldman Sachs has near $6b due Jan. 18-22

  • Jan. 23, 2017: priced $8b in 3 parts
  • Jan. 20, 2015: priced $5.5b in 3 parts
  • Jan. 28, 2014: priced $2.5b 5Y
  • Jan. 16, 2013: priced $5b in 2 parts
  • Jan. 19, 2012: priced $4.5b 10Y
  • 2018 maturities near $26b, the largest in its debt distribution
  • Earnings scheduled for Jan. 17

JPMorgan has ~$8.7b due Jan. 15-25

  • Jan. 25, 2017: $2.75b priced
  • Jan. 15, 2015: priced $6.25b in 2 parts
  • Jan. 14, 2014: priced $2b Jr Sub
    • Jan. 21, 2014: priced $5.25b in 5 parts
  • Jan. 17, 2013: priced 3 part deal for $6.4b
  • Jan. 13, 2012: priced $3.25b 10Y
  • Has near $27b coming due next year, the largest in its debt distribution
  • Will exit earnings blackout Jan. 12

Morgan Stanley has ~$2b due Dec. 28 and ~$2.1b due Jan. 5

  • Jan. 17, 2017: priced $8.25b in 3 parts
  • Jan. 22, 2016: priced 3-part deal totaling $5.5b
  • Jan. 22, 2015: $5.5b in 3 parts
  • Jan. 21, 2014: $2.75b in 2 parts
  • Jan. 23, 2013: $500m 3Y
  • Its 2018 maturities total ~$17.4b
  • Has not been seen since July
  • Earnings scheduled for Jan. 16

Wells Fargo, ~$4.1b Jan. 16-22

  • Jan. 17, 2017: priced $5b in 2 parts
  • Jan. 22, 2016: priced $4b in 2 parts
  • Jan. 15, 2015: priced $2b Jr Sub
    • Jan. 26, 2015: priced $2.65b in 2 parts
  • Jan. 16, 2014: priced $1.7b 7Y
  • Priced $2.1b in Dec. 2012 rather than Jan. 2013
  • 2018 maturities total ~$12.3b
  • Has issued in Nov.-Dec. in four of the past five years
    • Last issued in July
  • Earnings are Jan. 12

If you have a Bloomberg terminal, my strong advice is to reach out to Bob Elson and ask him to add you to his distribution list.  It’s free and you’ll likely get good intel along with some very funny jokes now and then. Please tell him “the guy-in-the-corner” sent you.  Thanks Bob! -RQ

Here’s a look at WTD and MTD IG Corporate new issuance volume as measured against the syndicate desk estimates:

  • The IG Corporate WTD total is 0.00% of this week’s syndicate midpoint average forecast or $0.00m vs. $994mm.
  • MTD we’ve priced 79.96% of the syndicate forecast for December IG Corporate new issuance or $26.387b vs. $33b.
  • There are now 5 issuers in the IG credit pipeline. 

Today’s IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

  • The “AA” (+57) and “A” (+78) IG asset classes tied their post Crisis lows for the fourth consecutive session.
  • The Real Estate (+111) and Services (+100) sectors set new post-Crisis lows.
  • The Banking (+82) and Transportation (+104) investment grade sector spreads tied their post Crisis lows for the fourth consecutive day.
  • The average spread compression from IPTs and/or guidance thru the launch/final pricing of today’s X IG Corporate-only new issues was <XX.XX> bps.
  • BAML’s IG Master Index tightened 1 bp to +100 vs. +101.
  • Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS was unchanged at 0.95.
  • Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread tightened 1 bp to +140 vs. +141.  The +140 reached on July 30th 2014 represents the post-Crisis low.
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $12.7b on Friday versus $15.9b on Thursday and $14.7b the previous Friday.
  • The 10-DMA stands at $16b.

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates For This Week, December & January 2018

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