Browsing articles tagged with "investment grade corporate debt Archives - Mischler Financial Group"
Philip Morris Smokes DCM with 5-part Debt Deal-Mischler Comment
February 2017      Debt Market Commentary   

Quigley’s Corner 02.15.17-Philip Morris Deal “Smokes” Primary DCM with $2.5bil 5-part

 

Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

Global Market Recap

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and February

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

New Issues Priced

Indexes and New Issue Volume

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending February 8th    

IG Credit Spreads by Rating     

IG Credit Spreads by Industry

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

UST Resistance/Support Table

Tomorrow’s Calendar

 

4 IG Corporate issuers priced 9 tranches between them totaling $5.65b.  The SSA space, however, remained quiet.

The WTD IG Corporate total is now $22.25b or 4% more than this week’s syndicate midpoint average estimate calling for $21.33b. In fact, WTD we priced 85.50% of the highest projection in my survey which was $26b.

 

The S&P, Dow and Nasdaq all reached new all-time highs again today!

 

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

 

  • The average spread from IPTs thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 9 IG Corporate-only new issues was <20.78> bps.
  • BAML’s IG Master Index tightened 2 bps to +124 vs. +126.  +106 represents the post-Crisis low dating back to July 2007.
  • Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS tightened 1 bp to 1.19 vs. +120 marking a new tight..  The “LUACOAS” wide since 2012 is +215.  +120 is the new tight.
  • Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread tightened 1 bp to +166 vs. +167.  The +140 reached on July 30th 2014 represents the post-Crisis low.
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $23.8b on Tuesday versus $16.7b on Monday and $22.1b the previous Tuesday.
  • The 10-DMA stands at $19.8b.

 

Global Market Recap

 

  • U.S. Treasuries – registered its 5th losing session in a row.
  • Overseas Bonds – JGB’s & Europe mixed & little changed except for Greece (weak).
  • Stocks – U.S. stocks traded at all-time highs for the 5th session in a row.
  • Overseas Stocks – Nikkei, Hang Seng & Europe rallied while China was red.
  • Economic – Full calendar was mixed. Data that counted most was negative for USTs.
  • Currencies – USD gave up overnight gains during the NY session.
  • Commodities – Gold & wheat were better. Crude oil small lose (bearish inventory).
  • CDX IG: +0.08 to 62.88
  • CDX HY: +0.41 to 317.36
  • CDX EM: +8.48 to 218.63

CDX levels are as of 3:30PM ET today.

-Tony Farren

 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and February

 

IG Corporate New Issuance This Week
2/13-2/17
vs. Current
WTD – $22.25b
February 2017
Forecasts
vs. Current
MTD – $49.225b
Low-End Avg. $20.71b 107.44% $90.65b 54.30%
Midpoint Avg. $21.33b 104.31% $91.96b 53.53%
High-End Avg. $21.96b 101.32% $93.26b 52.78%
The Low $15b 148.33% $85b 57.91%
The High $26b 85.58% $120b 41.02%

 

Below please find my synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary from today’s debt capital markets, including the investment grade corporate bond data drill down as seen from my seat here in Syndicate, Sales and DCM.

Have a great evening!

Ron Quigley

 

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

 

Here’s a review of this week’s five key primary market driver averages for IG Corporates only through Tuesday’s session followed by the averages over the prior six weeks:

KEY IG CORPORATE
NEW ISSUE DRIVERS

 

New Issues Priced

Today’s recap of visitors to our IG dollar Corporate and SSA DCM:

For ratings I use the better two of Moody’s, S&P or Fitch.

 

IG          

Issuer Ratings Coupon Maturity Size IPTs GUIDANCE LAUNCH PRICED LEADS
Consumers Energy Co. A1/A+ 3.95% 7/15/2047 350 +110a +90a (+/-2.5) +87.5 +87.5 BAML/CITI/GS/SCOT/WFS
Mitsubishi UFJ Finc’l. Grp. Inc. A1/A FRN 2/22/2022 500 3mL+equiv 3mL +equiv 3mL+92 3mL +92 MUFG/MS
Mitsubishi UFJ Finc’l. Grp. Inc. A1/A 2.998% 2/22/2022 1,000 REV. GUID: +120a
+120-125
+100-105 +100 +100 MUFG/MS
Mitsubishi UFJ Finc’l. Grp. Inc. A1/A 3.677% 2/22/2027 1,000 REV. GUID: +135a
+135-140
+120a (+/-2) +118 +118 MUFG/MS
Philip Morris Int’l. Inc. A2/A 1.625% 2/21/2019 700 +70a +55a (+/-5) +50 +50 CITI/CS/DB (a) BNPP/ING (p)
Philip Morris Int’l. Inc. A2/A FRN 2/21/2020 300 3mL +57a 3mL +equiv 3mL+42 3mL+42 CITI/CS/DB (a) BNPP/ING (p)
Philip Morris Int’l. Inc. A2/A 2.00% 2/21/2020 1,000 +80a +70a (+/-5) +65 +65 CITI/CS/DB (a) BNPP/ING (p)
Philip Morris Int’l. Inc. A2/A 2.625% 2/18/2022 500 +90a +80a (+/-5) +75 +75 CITI/CS/DB (a) BNPP/ING (p)
Snap-On Incorporated A2/A 3.25% 3/01/2027 300 +110a +85a (+/-5) +75 +75 CITI/JPM

 

Indexes and New Issue Volume
*Denotes new tight or new record high.

 

Index Open Current Change  
IG27 *62.80 62.979 0.179
HV27 134.645 132.445 <2.20>
VIX 10.74 11.94 1.20  
S&P 2,337 *2,349 12
DOW 20,504 *20,611 107  
 

USD

 

IG Corporates

 

USD

 

Total (IG + SSA)

DAY: $5.65 bn DAY: $5.65 bn
WTD: $22.25 bn WTD: $24.25 bn
MTD: $49.225 bn MTD: $61.475 bn
YTD: $221.608 bn YTD: $288.758 bn

 

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending February 8th    

     

  • For the week ended February 8th, Lipper U.S. Fund Flows reported an inflow of $4.932b into Corporate Investment Grade Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $17.286b) and a net inflow of $441.718m into High Yield Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $732.780m).
  • Over the same period, Lipper reported a net inflow of $854.782m into Loan Participation Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $4.614b).
  • Emerging Market debt funds reported a net inflow of $358.189m (2016 YTD inflow of $502.693m).

 

IG Credit Spreads by Rating (more…)

Janet Yellen Valentine’s Day Message; Healthcare M&A Break-Ups
February 2017      Debt Market Commentary   

Quigley’s Corner -Valentine’s Day With Love From Janet Yellen; No Love for Healthcare M&A

 

Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap

Insure This! – Anthem for Cigna, like Aetna for Humana, is Dead in the Water – $91b in M&A Erased By Two Deals

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

Global Market Recap

Key Talking Points of Fed Testimony

Three Rates Hikes in 2017? .HIGHLY Improbable or “You Gotta Be Kiddin’ Me!”

Next Up – Greece, Grexit, France & Frexit

Tony’s Take on Today’s Fed Testimony

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and February

The Boeing Company $300mm 30-year Deal Dashboard

Happy Valentine’s Day to All the Ladies Among My “QC” Readership

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

New Issues Priced

Indexes and New Issue Volume

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending February 8th    

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

IG Credit Spreads by Industry

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

UST Resistance/Support Table

Tomorrow’s Calendar

 

5 IG Corporate issuers priced 9 tranches between them totaling $9.90b.  The SSA space hosted a 2-part 3-year FXD/FRN from JBIC adding $2b to the mix.

The all-in IG day total was 6 issuers, 11 tranches and $11.90b.

 

The WTD IG Corporate total is now $16.60b or 78% of this week’s syndicate midpoint average calling for $21.33b.


Can’t Insure This! – Anthem for Cigna, like Aetna for Humana, is Dead in the Water – $91b in M&A Erased By Two Deals

You’ve read about the Anthem for Cigna merger in my M&A Pipeline near page bottom for months now.  Well, today, Cigna terminated its $54b merger agreement with Aetna following a federal judges rejection.  Let’s trace back the story. Anthem Inc. (Baa2/A) in July 2015, proposed to purchase Cigna Corp. (Baa1/A) for $54b or $188 per share furthering the consolidation in the healthcare sector. The deal was expected to close sometime during the second half of 2016. The merger would have involved 53mm members and would include $22b in new debt and loans. However, in light of a federal judge’s ruling on Monday, January 23rd that another proposed insurance merger – the $37b deal between Aetna and Humana should not be allowed to consummate due to antitrust issues it remained to be seen if the Anthem/Cigna merger would meet the same fate especially given the former deal size involved $17bn more the former. That two rejected deals have taken $91b out of the M&A pipeline. 

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

 

  • The average spread from IPTs thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 9 IG Corporate-only new issues was <15.78> bps.
  • BAML’s IG Master Index tightened 2 bps to +126 vs. +128.  +106 represents the post-Crisis low dating back to July 2007.
  • Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS tightened 1 bp to 1.20 vs. +121.  The “LUACOAS” wide since 2012 is +215.  +120 is the new tight.
  • Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread was unchanged at +167.  The +140 reached on July 30th 2014 represents the post-Crisis low.
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $16.7b on Monday versus $18.2b on Friday and $15.5b the previous Monday.
  • The 10-DMA stands at $20.2b.

 

Global Market Recap

 

  • Fed Chair Yellen: Hawkish but the markets are not so sure she is that hawkish.
  • U.S Treasuries – Closed in the red on Yellen but closed well off the session low prices.
  • Overseas Bonds – JGB’s mixed & steeper. Europe followed Treasuries down.
  • Stocks – Even a hawkish Yellen cannot keep U.S. stocks down (record highs again).
  • Overseas Stocks – Japan had a poor day. China unchanged. Europe at a 1 year high.
  • Economic – U.S. PPI data m/m was higher but the y/y data was not.
  • Overseas Economic – China inflation higher. Japan IP solid. EU data disappointing.
  • Currencies – USD rallied on the Yellen testimony. DXY Index back over 101.
  • Commodities – Crude oil small gain, gold unchanged, silver better & cooper red.
  • CDX IG: -0.12 to 63.15
  • CDX HY: -0.48 to 317.89
  • CDX EM: -3.18 to 208.93

CDX levels are as of 3:30PM ET today.

-Tony Farren


Key Talking Points of Fed Testimony

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen testified before the Senate today delivering her Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress.  The big headline statement is when Yellen  said the Committee would like a balance sheet that is substantially smaller and only comprised of Treasuries.  It was the Chair’s most hawkish comment of the day.

Here are the key takeaways:

  • Fed Chair Yellen: Will evaluate progress at “upcoming meetings.”
  • “Too early to know” fiscal policy and its effects on outlook.
  • Fiscal policy should focus on improving long term economic growth.
  • Business sentiment has “noticeably improved” in the past few months.
  • U.S. monetary policy “remains accommodative.”
  • Expects the economy to continue to expand at a moderate pace.
  • Fiscal changes should put accounts on a sustainable trajectory.
  • FOMC expects neutral Fed Funds Rate to rise somewhat over time.
  • Pace of global economic activity should pick up over time.
  • Waiting too long could disrupt financial markets and result in recession.
  • Waiting too long to remove accommodation is “unwise.”
  • Fiscal policy change could affect the economy and is only one factor.
  • Further hikes are appropriate if employment and inflation evolve w/expectations.
  • Yellen repeats that waiting too long to tighten “would be unwise.”
  • Further adjustments are likely needed if the economy is on track.
  • Fed to adjust rate path views as outlook evolves.
  • Says changes in fiscal policy could affect outlook.
  • Too early to know what policies will be put in place.
  • Stresses importance of policies that lift productivity.
  • Rate decisions to be aimed at meeting the Fed’s twin goals.
  • Keeping the Fed balance sheet large supports accommodation.
  • Economy has continued to make progress toward the Fed’s goals.
  • Reassuring market-based inflation compensation has risen.
  • FOMC reaffirms long-run symmetrical inflation goal of 2%.

 

  • Wages have picked up, labor market improvement widespread.
  • Says jobless rate is in line with long-run normal estimates.
  • Business sentiment has improved in the past few months.
  • Recent rise in mortgage rates may restrain housing somewhat.
  • FOMC’s longer run goal is to shrink its balance sheet.
  • We hope asset purchases were unusual intervention.
  • Would anticipate the balance sheet eventually being much smaller.
  • Fed doesn’t want to use its balance sheet as an active policy tool.
  • The FOMC wants to rely on rate changes for policy.
  • Stopping reinvestment to happen in a gradual and orderly way.
  • Wants to wait until normalization is well under way.
  • The FOMC will discuss balance sheet strategy in the coming months.


Three Rates Hikes in 2017? .HIGHLY Improbable

Now let’s first sit back a second and re-evaluate the thought of three rate hikes in 2017.  In each of the last two years the lone annual rate hike came in December.  The chances of a rate hike in March increased from 12% to a resounding 18%. In other words “big deal!”  There is no rate hike coming in March.  Next, next look at Western Civilization.  There are critical elections in the EU with Holland up first on March 15th.  Geert Wilders is ahead in that election. He represents the far-right Party for Freedom or the “PVV”.  He is expected to gain the most seats in that general election.  Among his notable campaign promises – for which there is significant support – is to leave the Euro and the EU as well as close down all the mosques in Holland.  Okay!  You see where this is going?
Next up, France. Marine Le Pen, head of the National Front is ahead of her rival Francois Fillon, the latter bogged down by Penelope-gate, by 2-3%.  As each day goes by Le Pen is getting stronger and stronger as her message resonates with and reflects that of “true” France.  The second round or “run-off” election in May shows Le Pen behind but dramatically closing the gap. She is now trailing 58% to 42% and gaining each day. Just over a week ago the numbers were 73% to 37%. Remember the Trump election.  A voice in France WILL BE HEARD!  Among Le Pen’s promises is to also leave the EU and take back France’s wonderful but rapidly dying culture.

German elections then follow in September with Angela Merkel losing ground to Socialist Party leader and secondary school drop-out Martin Schulz. Polls currently show Merkel barely ahead 33% to 32%.  Germany’s far-right Alternative for Deutschland Party (AfD) is set to win its first parliamentary seats and thus far has captured 10% of the Hinterland’s support……interesting to say the least!

By the time this all plays out Yellen will be into late September not counting adjustment periods and shocks to the system. Oh yes, I haven’t even begun to discuss Greece so, while I’m on that topic let’s do it –

Next Up – GreeceA Global Macro View

Greece never ever went away. Greece was simply outperformed in the media by BREXIT, the U.S. Presidential election, the new Administration and the aforementioned EU elections. Let’s take a look at some of the major problems confronting the Hellenic Republic shall we? Thanks to friend and former colleague Dr. Scott MacDonald, Chief Economist for Smith’s Research and Gradings for his meaningful discourses and today’s piece titled, “Can the EU Stop Yet Another Greek Debt Crisis?” Thanks Doc!

 

  • Greece needs creditors to release a €10.3b tranche from its 2015 bail out agreement to fulfill its debt obligations and avoid default.
  • Given the aforementioned issues playing out in the EU (BREXIT, the various elections, immigrations, sweeping nationalism/populism), Greece is once again the potential linchpin for the future EU.
  • The Greek economy has contracted by 26% since 2009.
  • Unemployment hovers at 20%.
  • Inefficient bureaucracy
  • Massive debt, prevalent tax evasion
  • All this despite three prior bail outs and stringent austerity measures.
  • According to the OECD, Greece’s gross debt-to-GDP-ratio stands at 185.7% of GDP. Only Japan has a worse ration of 240%.
  • Greece posted anemic 0.4% real GDP growth in 2014 after which the country slipped back into recession in 2015 and was flat last year.
  • Concerns of the full impact of BREXIT on the EU and Greece in particular.
  • Risk of another wave of migrants for which Greece serves as a major transit point.
  • Risk from weaker global trade.
  • Germany’s Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble ruled out debt reduction for Greece with this statement last week, “for that, Greece would have to leave the monetary union.”
  • The Euro Zone’s rescue funds, EFSF and ESM already disbursed €174b to Greece, with more needed! The ESM’s head Klaus Regling said, “we would not have lent this amount if we did not think we would get our money back.”  Tip of the day: If Regling ever returns to the private sector to head a company one day, please remember to never buy its stock = Investing 101.

In conclusion before BREXIT et al, Greece was always threatened with being kicked out of the EU.  Post-BREXIT and in the midst of a much more complicated developing geopolitical landscape, Greece might see the royal boot as a wonderful invitation!

 

Tony’s Take on Today’s Fed Testimony

The Fed and I clearly are not seeing the U.S. and the world in the same light. The Fed owns roughly $414 bln in Treasuries maturing in 2018. Where does the Fed think the Treasury will be able to come up with $414 bln to pay the Fed for their 2018 holdings?  Treasury would have to jack up issuance to pay the Fed back. Raising rates 75 bps per year, shrinking the Fed balance sheet and a sizable increase in UST issuance would be a disaster for Treasury yields and the U.S. economy. Tony Farren

 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and February

 

IG Corporate New Issuance This Week
2/13-2/17
vs. Current
WTD – $16.60b
February 2017
Forecasts
vs. Current
MTD – $43.575b
Low-End Avg. $20.71b 80.15% $90.65b 48.07%
Midpoint Avg. $21.33b 77.82% $91.96b 47.38%
High-End Avg. $21.96b 75.59% $93.26b 46.72%
The Low $15b 110.67% $85b 51.26%
The High $26b 63.85% $120b 36.31%

 

The Boeing Company (NYSE:BA) $300mm 30-year Deal Dashboard

 

The Boeing Company today issued a $900mm 3-part 5-, 10- and 30-year transaction.  If I’m writing about that means Mischler was involved.  Today, the nation’s oldest Service Disabled Veteran broker dealer was were invited to serve as an active 0.50% Co-Manager on the longer 30-year tranche.

The direct comparable for today’s new 30-year tranche was the outstanding BA 3.375% due 6/15/2046 that was T+87 pre-announcement nailing NIC as negative <2> bps on today’s new print that priced at T+85.
Here’s a look at today’s Deal Dashboard for The Boeing Company’s $900mm 3-part new issue:

 

BA Issue IPTs GUIDANCE LAUNCH PRICED Spread
Compression
NICs
(bps)
Trading at
the Break
+/-
(bps)
5yr +60a +45a (+/-3) +42 +42 <18> bps <1> 41.5/ <0.5>
10yr +80a +65a (+/-5) +60 +60 <20> bps <2> 59.5. <0.5>
30yr +100-105 +90a (+/-5) +85 +85 <17.5> bps <2> 85/ 0/flat

 

………and here’s a look at today’s re-opening final book sizes and oversubscription rates.

 

BA  Issue – Tranche
Size
Final Book
Size
Bid-to-Cover
Rate
5yr 300 $1.3b 4.33x
10yr 300 $1.55b 5.17x
30yr 300 $2b 6.67x

 

Boeing Company A2/A 2.125% 3/01/2022 300 +60a +45a (+/-3) +42 +42 CITI/DB/SMBC
Boeing Company A2/A 2.80% 3/01/2027 300 +80a +65a (+/-5) +60 +60 CITI/GS/MIZ
Boeing Company A2/A 3.65% 3/01/2047 300 +100-105 +90a (+/-5) +85 +85 CITI/JPM/WFS

 

Final Pricing – Boeing.
BA $300mm 2.125% due 3/01/2022 @ $98.790 to yield 2.381% or T+42  MW+10

BA $300mm 2.80% due 3/01/2027 @ $97.698 to yield 3.068% or T+60  MW+10

BA $300mm 3.65% due 3/01/2047 @ $95.392 to yield 3.912% or T+85  MW+15

 

Happy Valentine’s Day to All the Ladies Among My “QC” Readership

 

To wrap things up, this lovable guy-in-the-corner sends out a Happy Valentine’s Day wish to all the wonderful women among his “QC” distribution list, especially all the great leading ladies from fixed income syndicate land and those in Treasury/Funding from among the many issuers in his DCM universe. I wish you all a spectacular evening.

Remember guys – behind every successful man is a truly awesome woman! That’s just the way it is!

 

Below please find my synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary from today’s debt capital markets, including the investment grade corporate bond data drill down as seen from my seat here in Syndicate, Sales and DCM.

 

Have a great evening!

Ron Quigley

 

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

 

Here’s a review of this week’s five key primary market driver averages for IG Corporates only through Monday’s session followed by the averages over the prior six weeks:

KEY IG CORPORATE
NEW ISSUE DRIVERS
MON.
2/13
AVERAGES
WEEK 2/06
AVERAGES
WEEK 1/30
AVERAGES
WEEK 1/23
AVERAGES
WEEK 1/16
AVERAGES
WEEK 1/09
AVERAGES
WEEK 1/02
New Issue Concessions 0.62 bps <3.44> bps <0.87> bps 1.13b bps 3.42 bps 0.85 bps 2.25 bps
Oversubscription Rates 3.62x 3.92x 3.12x 3.29x 2.40x 2.85x 2.45x
Tenors 5.82 yrs 12.04 yrs 11.60 yrs 6.67 yrs 12 yrs 7.83 yrs 6.52 yrs
Tranche Sizes $609mm $735mm $1,311 yrs $845mm $1,123mm $927mm $859mm
Avg. Spd. Compression
IPTs to Launch
<16.86> bps <19.60> bps <19.77> bps <18.20> bps <14.69> bps <18.77> bps <15.27> bps

 

New Issues Priced

Today’s recap of visitors to our IG dollar Corporate and SSA DCM:

For ratings I use the better two of Moody’s, S&P or Fitch.

 

IG          

Issuer Ratings Coupon Maturity Size IPTs GUIDANCE LAUNCH PRICED LEADS
Boeing Company A2/A 2.125% 3/01/2022 300 +60a +45a (+/-3) +42 +42 CITI/DB/SMBC
Boeing Company A2/A 2.80% 3/01/2027 300 +80a +65a (+/-5) +60 +60 CITI/GS/MIZ
Boeing Company A2/A 3.65% 3/01/2047 300 +100-105 +90a (+/-5) +85 +85 CITI/JPM/WFS
J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. A3/A- 4.26% 2/22/2048 2,000 +130a +120-123 +120 +120 JPM-sole
Morgan Stanley A3/A FRN 2/14/2020 3,000 3mL+95a 3mL+80 the # 3mL+80 3mL+80 MS-sole
Novartis Capital Corp. Aa3/AA- 1.80% 2/14/2020 1,000 +50-55 +40-45 +40 +40 BAML/CITI/JPM
Novartis Capital Corp. Aa3/AA- 2.40% 5/17/2022 1,000 +65-70 +55-60 +55 +55 BAML/CITI/JPM
Novartis Capital Corp. Aa3/AA- 3.10% 5/17/2027 1,000 +90-95 +75a (+/-2) +73 +73 BAML/CITI/JPM
PNC Bank NA A2/A+ 2.625% 2/17/2022 1,000 +85a +70a (+/-2) +68 +68 CITI/GS/JPM/PNC

 

SSA

Issuer Ratings Coupon Maturity Size IPTs GUIDANCE LAUNCH PRICED LEADS
JBIC A1/A+ FRN 2/24/2020 500 3mL+equiv 3mL+equiv 3mL+57 3mL+57 BARC/CITI/DAIW/JPM
JBIC A1/A+ 2.25% 2/24/2020 1,500 MS +60a MS +58a MS +57 +80.7 BARC/CITI/DAIW/JPM

 

Indexes and New Issue Volume
*Denotes new tight or new record high.

 

Index Open Current Change  
IG27 63.268 *62.80 <0.468>
HV27 136.89 134.645 <2.245>
VIX 11.08 10.74 <0.34>  
S&P 2,328 *2,337 9
DOW 20,412 *20,504 92  
 

USD

 

IG Corporates

 

USD

 

Total (IG + SSA)

DAY: $9.90 bn DAY: $11.90 bn
WTD: $16.60 bn WTD: $18.60 bn
MTD: $43.575 bn MTD: $55.825 bn
YTD: $215.958 bn YTD: $283.108 bn

 

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending February 8th    

     

  • For the week ended February 8th, Lipper U.S. Fund Flows reported an inflow of $4.932b into Corporate Investment Grade Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $17.286b) and a net inflow of $441.718m into High Yield Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $732.780m).
  • Over the same period, Lipper reported a net inflow of $854.782m into Loan Participation Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $4.614b).
  • Emerging Market debt funds reported a net inflow of $358.189m (2016 YTD inflow of $502.693m).

IG Credit Spreads by Rating (more…)

Quigley’s Corner – 02.10.17 Weekend Edition | Outlook from Best & Brightest
February 2017      Debt Market Commentary   

Quigley’s Corner – 02.10.17 Weekend Edition | Outlook from Best & Brightest

 

Investment Grade Corporate Debt New Issue Re-Cap

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and February

The Best and the Brightest” –  Fixed Income Syndicate Forecasts and Sound Bites for Next Week 

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

This Week’s IG New Issues and Where They’re Trading

Indexes and New Issue Volume

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending February 8th    

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

IG Credit Spreads by Industry

Economic Data Releases

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline

Rates Trading Lab

Tomorrow’s Calendar

It was another no-print Friday today and a welcome one at that.  I am happy to announce that one additional syndicate desk earned its way into the “Best and the Brightest” so, my survey now includes 24 desks. They are the ones you want and need to hear from. They are very patiently lined up and waiting below with their numbers and thoughts for next week’s IG dollar DCM supply. So, kick back, relax, have a cup of coffee, knock back a beer or enjoy glass of wine or perhaps just sit by the fireplace and read what you need to know.  Let’s recap things first and on with the show!

 

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

 

  • Taking a look at the secondary trading performance of this week’s IG and SSA new issues, of the 26 deals that printed, 14 tightened versus NIP for a 00% improvement rate while 8 widened (30.75%) and 4 were flat (15.25%).
  • For the week ended February 8th, Lipper U.S. Fund Flows reported an inflow of $4.932b into Corporate Investment Grade Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $17.286b) and a net inflow of $441.718m into High Yield Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $732.780m).
  • BAML’s IG Master Index was unchanged at +128.  +106 represents the post-Crisis low dating back to July 2007.
  • Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS tightened 1 bp to +121 vs. 1.22.  The “LUACOAS” wide since 2012 is +215.  +120 is the new tight.
  • Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread was unchanged at +167.  The +140 reached on July 30th 2014 represents the post-Crisis low.
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $18.4b on Thursday versus $22.1b on Wednesday and $22.5b the previous Thursday.
  • The 10-DMA stands at $20.3b.

 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and February

 

IG Corporate New Issuance This Week
2/06-2/10
vs. Current
WTD – $14.70b
February 2017
Forecasts
vs. Current
MTD – $27.275b
Low-End Avg. $23.74b 61.92% $90.65b 30.09%
Midpoint Avg. $24.72b 59.47% $91.96b 29.66%
High-End Avg. $25.70b 57.20% $93.26b 29.25%
The Low $15b 98.00% $85b 32.09%
The High $35b 42.00% $120b 22.73%

 

The Best and the Brightest” –  Fixed Income Syndicate Forecasts and Sound Bites for Next Week 

 

I am happy to announce that I’ve added a new top syndicate desk to the “QC’s” “Best & Brightest” survey!  As they are in the top 25 they are a most welcome addition.  Once again, the “QC” received unanimous responses from the 24 syndicate desks surveyed in today’s Best & Brightest poll.  22 of those participants are among 2017’s YTD top 25 ranked syndicate desks according to today’s Bloomberg’s U.S. IG U.S. Investment Grade Corporate Bond underwriting league table.  In fact, 21 of today’s 23 participants finished in the top 25 of last year’s 2016 final IG Corporate Bloomberg league table.  The 2017 League table can be found on your terminals at “LEAG” + [GO] after which you select (US Investment Grade Corporates).  The participating desks represent 86.61% of all IG dollar-denominated new issue underwriting as of today’s table share percentage which simply means they’re the ones with visibility.  But it’s not only about their volume forecasts, it’s also about their comments!  This core syndicate group does it best; they know best; so they’re the ones you WANT and NEED to hear from.  It’s a great look at the week ahead.

 

*Please note that these are Investment Grade Corporates only. They do not include SSA issuance unless otherwise noted.

 

As always “thank you” to all the syndicate desks that participated in today’s survey.  I greatly appreciate your time to contribute and for making this edition of the “QC” among the most widely read! You are helping to promote Mischler’s value-added DCM proposition while adding readership to the “QC” that won Wall Street Letter’s Award as Best Broker Dealer Research in our financial services industry for the third consecutive year! That’s 2014, 2015 and 2016 !!  More importantly, however, you are helping the nation’s oldest Service Disabled Veteran broker-dealer grow in a more meaningful and sustainable way.  So, thank you all! -RQ

 

The question posed to the “Best and the Brightest” early this morning framed with the following:
Here are this week’s numbers:

  • WTD, we missed this week’s IG Corporate syndicate midpoint average forecast by over 40% having priced only $14.70b vs. $24.72b.
  • Thus far in February we priced 30% of the monthly syndicate projection or $27.275b vs. $91.96b.
  • All-in YTD IG Corporate and SSA issuance stands at $268.558b! 

Here are this week’s five key IG Corporate-only primary market driver averages:

  • NICS:  <3.44> bps
  • Oversubscription Rates: 3.92x
  • Tenors:  12.04 years
  • Tranche Sizes: $735mm
  • Spread Compression from IPTs to the Launch: <19.60> bps


Here’s how this week’s performance data compares against last week’s:

 

  • NICs tightened 2.57 bps to <3.44> bps vs. <0.87> bps.
  • Over subscription or bid-to-cover rates increased by 0.80x to 3.92x vs. 3.12x.. 
  • Average tenors extended by 0.44 years to 12.04 years vs. 11.60 years.
  • Tranche sizes declined dramatically by $576mm to $735mm vs. $1,311mm, the result of last week’s hefty jumbo deal tranche sizes from MSFT, AT&T and AAPL.
  • Spread compression from IPTs to the launch/final pricing of this week’s 20 IG Corporate-only new issues widened ever so slightly by <0.17> bps to <19.60> vs. <19.77> bps.
  • Standard and Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spreads widened 1 bp to +167 vs. +166.
  • Week-on-week, BAML’s IG Master Index widened 1 bp to +128 vs. +127. 
  • Spreads across the four IG asset classes tightened 0.50 bps to 20.50 vs. 21.00 bps as measured against their post-Crisis lows. 
  • The 19 major industry sectors tightened 0.46 bps to 24.74 vs. 25.20 bps also against their post-Crisis lows.
  • For the week ended February 8th, Lipper U.S. Fund Flows reported an inflow of $4.932b into Corporate Investment Grade Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $17.286b) and a net inflow of $441.718m into High Yield Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $732.780m).

 

Corporate America has posted earnings.  Most issuers have exited blackouts.  Thursday’s storm may have hampered a bit of issuance this week and next week is expected to be sizeable. Chair Yellen testifies before the U.S. Senate Banking Panel on Tuesday the 14th. This represents Yellen’s first appearance since raising rates last month. All eyes and ears will be tuned into that especially since the January FOMC meeting was not followed by a Press Conference. Meanwhile Japan’s Prime Minister Abe arrives today for his first official summit with President Trump through the weekend.    

My approach to the “Quig” Pro Quo is to give something first and then ask.  So, it’s now time for the question, – “what are your thoughts and numbers for next week’s IG Corporate new issue volume?” 

Thank you very much and a have a great weekend! -Ron”

 

The “Best and the Brightest” in Their Own Words*

 

*Responses the QC Best & Brightest are available exclusively to QC email subscribers

 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for Next Week

IG Corporate New Issuance Next Week
2/13-2/17
Low-End Avg. $20.71b
Midpoint Avg. $21.33b
High-End Avg. $21.96b
The Low $15b
The High $26b

A Look at How the Voting Brackets Broke-Out for Next Week

 

Next Week
2/13-2/17
1: 15b
2: 15-20b
10: 20b
1: 21b
4: 20-25b
5: 25b
1: 26b

 

Below please find my synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary from today’s debt capital markets, including the investment grade corporate bond data drill down as seen from my seat here in Syndicate, Sales and DCM

Have a great weekend!

Ron Quigley

 

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

 

Here is this week’s day-by-day re-cap of the five key primary market driver averages for IG Corporatesonly followed by this week’s and the prior five week’s averages:

KEY IG CORPORATE
NEW ISSUE DRIVERS
MON.
2/06
TUES.
2/07
WED.
2/08
TH.
2/09
FRI.
2/10
THIS WEEK’S
AVERAGES
AVERAGES
WEEK 1/30
AVERAGES
WEEK 1/23
AVERAGES
WEEK 1/16
AVERAGES
WEEK 1/09
AVERAGES
WEEK 1/02
New Issue Concessions <3.62> bps <7.5> bps 5.25 bps N/A N/A <3.44> bps <0.87> bps 1.13b bps 3.42 bps 0.85 bps 2.25 bps
Oversubscription Rates 4.25x 4.56x 2.18x 7.33 N/A 3.92x 3.12x 3.29x 2.40x 2.85x 2.45x
Tenors 12.83 yrs 16.65 yrs 6.40 yrs 10 yrs N/A 12.04 yrs 11.60 yrs 6.67 yrs 12 yrs 7.83 yrs 6.52 yrs
Tranche Sizes $744mm $850mm $690mm $300mm N/A $735mm $1,311 yrs $845mm $1,123mm $927mm $859mm
Avg. Spd. Compression
IPTs to Launch
<19.17> bps <25.40> bps <11.5> bps <35> bps N/A <19.60> bps <19.77> bps <18.20> bps <14.69> bps <18.77> bps <15.27> bps

 

This Week’s IG New Issues and Where They’re Trading

 

Taking a look at the secondary trading performance of this week’s IG and SSA new issues, of the 26 deals that printed, 14 tightened versus NIP for a 54.00% improvement rate while 8 widened (30.75%) and 4 were flat (15.25%).

Issues are listed from the most recent pricings at the top working back to Monday at the bottom.  Thanks! –RQ

 

Issuer Ratings Coupon Maturity Size IPTs GUIDANCE LAUNCH PRICED TRADING
H.B. Fuller Co. Baa3/BBB 4.00% 2/15/2027 300 +200a +170a (+/-5) +165 +165 156/153
ADB Aaa/AAA 2.00% 2/16/2022 3,750 MS +19a MS +19a MS +18 +26.95 25/24
BP Capital Markets PLC A2/A- FRN 8/14/2018 500 N/A 3mL+40a (+/-5) 3mL+35 3mL+35 3mL+29.5/26.5
BP Capital Markets PLC
(tap) New Total: $1.75b
A2/A- 2.315% 2/13/2020 500 +85a +70a (+/-5) +65 +65 63/60
BP Capital Markets PLC A2/A- 3.224% 4/14/2024 1,000 +120a +115a (+/-5) +110 +110 108/105
BP Capital Markets PLC A2/A- 3.588% 4/14/2027 850 +130a +125 the # +125 +125 121/118
CMS Energy Corp. Baa2/BBB 3.45% 8/15/2027 350 +125-130 +115a (+/-5) +110 +110 111/109
BNG Aaa/AAA 1.50% 2/15/2019 2,250 MS +13a MS +13a MS +13 +44.25 44/42
Citigroup Inc.
(tap) New Total: $1.75b
Baa3/A- 4.75% 5/18/2046 750 +185a +175a (+/-2) +173 +173 176/173
Fondo Mivivienda S.A.
(tap) New Total: $650mm
BBB+/BBB+ 3.50% 1/31/2023 150 +180a +175a (+/-5) +170 +170 170/167
MPLX LP Baa3/BBB- 4.125% 3/01/2027 1,250 very high 100s +193.75a +180a (+/-5) +175 +175 175/171
MPLX LP Baa3/BBB- 5.20% 3/01/2047 1,000 +50 bps curve
243.75
+225a (+/-5) +220 +220 215/212
Symantec Corp. Baa3/BB+ 5.00% 8NC3 1,100 +mid to hi 5.00%
or 5.625%a
5.25-5.30%
or 5.375%a
5.00% +271 277/272
Dexia Capital Local Aa3/AA- FRN 2/15/2019 500 3mL+50 N/A N/A 3mL+50 3mL+50/47
EIB Aaa/AAA 1.75% 5/15/2020 3,000 MS +14a MS +14a MS +12 +42.5 41/40
KfW Aaa/AAA 1.25% 9/13/2018 1,000 MS <4>a MS <4>a MS <4> +17.45 17.6/17.4
TVA Aaa/AAA 2.875% 2/01/2027 1,000 +low 50s / +52.5a +50a (+/-2) +48 +48 48/46
Discover Financial Services BBB-/BBB+` 4.10% 2/09/2027 1,000 +190a +175a (+/-5) +170 +170 171/167
Estee Lauder Cos. Inc. A2/A+ 1.80% 2/07/2020 500 +55-60 +45a (+/-5) +40 +40 38/36
Estee Lauder Cos. Inc. A2/A+ 3.15% 3/15/2027 500 +90-95 +80 (+/-5) +75 +75 77/74
Estee Lauder Cos. Inc. A2/A+ 4.15% 3/15/2047 500 +125-130 +115a (+/-5) +110 +110 113/111
First Republic Bank Baa1/BBB+ 4.625% 2/13/2047 400 +high 100s
+187.5a
RG: +170a (+/-5)
+175a (+/-5)
+165 +165 164/160
GATX Corp. Baa2/BBB 3.85% 3/30/2027 300 +170a +150a (+/-3) +147 +147 149/146
IHS Markit Ltd. BB+/BBB 4.75% 2/15/2025 500 5.00% 4.75%a 4.75% +244 219/217
Vale Overseas Ltd.
(tap) New Total: $2bn
BBB-/BBB 6.25% 8/10/2026 1,000 5.45%a 5.20-5.25% 5.20% +278.3 269/265
Wells Fargo & Co. A2/AA- FRN 2/11/2022 2,000 3mL+95-100 3mL+93 the # 3mL+93 3mL+93 3mL+89/86

 

Indexes and New Issue Volume

Index levels are as of 12:00 noon ET.
*Denotes new record high

Index Open Current Change  
IG27 64.712 65.024 0.312
HV27 138.575 137.87 <0.705>
VIX 10.88 10.72 <0.16>  
S&P 2,307 *2,313 6
DOW 20,172 *20,242 70  
 

USD

 

IG Corporates

 

USD

 

Total (IG + SSA)

DAY: $0.00 bn DAY: $0.00 bn
WTD: $14.40 bn WTD: $22.15 bn
MTD: $26.975 bn MTD: $37.225 bn
YTD: $199.358 bn YTD: $264.508 bn

 

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending February 8th    

     

  • For the week ended February 8th, Lipper U.S. Fund Flows reported an inflow of $4.932b into Corporate Investment Grade Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $17.286b) and a net inflow of $441.718m into High Yield Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $732.780m).
  • Over the same period, Lipper reported a net inflow of $854.782m into Loan Participation Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $4.614b).
  • Emerging Market debt funds reported a net inflow of $358.189m (2016 YTD inflow of $502.693m).

 

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

The 10-day IG spread performance vs. the T10 across the ratings spectrum and how IG compared versus high yield:

Spreads across the four IG asset classes are an average 20.50 bps wider versus their post-Crisis lows!

 

ASSET CLASS 2/09 2/08 2/07 2/06 2/03 2/02 2/01 1/31 1/30 1/27 1-Day Change 10-Day Trend PC
low
IG Avg. 128 128 128 127 127 128 128 128 126 126 0 +2 106
“AAA” 75 76 75 75 74 75 76 77 75 71 <1> +4 50
“AA” 79 80 79 79 79 80 80 79 78 78 <1> +1 63
“A” 103 104 103 103 103 104 104 104 103 103 <1> 0 81
“BBB” 161 162 161 161 160 161 161 161 159 160 <1> +1 142
IG vs. HY 265 270 265 264 259 265 267 272 270 267 <5> <2> 228

 

IG Credit Spreads by Industry

…….and a snapshot of the major investment grade sector credit spreads for the past ten sessions:

Spreads across the major industry sectors are an average 24.74 bps wider versus their post-Crisis lows!

 

INDUSTRY 2/09 2/08 2/07 2/06 2/03 2/02 2/01 1/31 1/30 1/27 1-Day Change 10-Day Trend PC
low
Automotive 112 112 112 112 113 115 116 117 116 117 0 <5> 67
Banking 119 120 119 119 118 120 121 121 119 120 <1> <1> 98
Basic Industry 155 157 156 156 155 156 156 157 156 156 <2> <1> 143
Cap Goods 94 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 <1> <1> 84
Cons. Prod. 106 106 106 105 105 105 106 106 105 105 0 +1 85
Energy 157 159 157 157 156 157 157 157 154 154 <2> +3 133
Financials 139 141 141 142 141 143 144 144 142 143 <2> <4> 97
Healthcare 115 115 114 114 113 114 114 114 112 112 0 +3 83
Industrials 130 130 129 129 129 129 130 129 128 128 0 +2 109
Insurance 138 139 139 139 138 139 139 139 138 139 <1> <1> 120
Leisure 127 128 127 128 128 129 129 128 129 129 <1> <2> 115
Media 156 157 156 156 155 156 156 155 154 153 <1> +3 113
Real Estate 140 141 141 141 140 141 141 141 139 140 <1> 0 112
Retail 115 115 115 114 114 115 115 114 112 112 0 +3 92
Services 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 122 121 121 0 +2 120
Technology 104 105 104 104 103 105 105 105 103 101 <1> +3 76
Telecom 168 168 166 166 165 165 166 164 161 161 0 +7 122
Transportation 127 128 128 128 127 128 129 128 126 126 <1> +1 109
Utility 127 128 128 128 127 127 127 127 126 127 <1> 0 104

                                  

Economic Data Releases

 

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA PERIOD SURVEYED ESTIMATES ACTUAL NUMBER PRIOR NUMBER PRIOR REVISED
Import Price Index MoM January 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5%
Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM January —- 0.0% <0.2%> <0.1%>
Import Price Index YoY January 3.4% 3.7% 1.8% 2.0%
U. of Michigan Sentiment February 98.0 95.7 98.5 —-
U. of Michigan Current Conditions February —- 111.2 111.3 —-
U. of Michigan Expectations February —- 85.7 90.3 —-
U. of Michigan 1 Year Inflation February —- 2.8% 2.6% —-
U. of Michigan 5-10 Year Inflation February —- 2.5% 2.6% —-
Monthly Budget Statement (2:00pm ET) January $45.0b —- <$27.5b> —-

 

*Sources: Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, Bloomberg, Bond Radar, Dow Jones

 

New Issue Pipeline (more…)

Grexit, Brexit and Frexit-Mischler Debt Capital Markets Comment
February 2017      Debt Market Commentary   

Quigley’s Corner 02.08.17- First Grexit, Then Brexit and Now..Frexit? Mischler Debt Market Comment

 

Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points – A Citigroup tap

Global Market Recap

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and February

The Critically Important French Elections

The EU: It’s All Greek to Me

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

New Issues Priced

Indexes and New Issue Volume

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending January 25th     

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

IG Credit Spreads by Industry

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

Tomorrow’s Calendar

 

2 IG Corporate issuers priced 5 tranches between them totaling $3.45b.  Additionally, 1 SSA issuer, BNG, priced a $2.25b 2-year for an all-in IG day total of $5.7b.

The WTD IG Corporate total is now $14.40b or 58% of this week’s syndicate midpoint average calling for $24.72b.

 

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points – Mischler Serves as “passive” Jr. Co-Manager on Citigroup tap.

 

  • BP Capital Markets PLC added a fourth tranche, a $TBD 18-month FRN, to today’s earlier announced three-part 3-year tap, new 7s and 10s. 
  • The average spread from IPTs thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 5 IG Corporate-only new issues was <11.50> bps.
  • BAML’s IG Master Index tightened 1 bp to +127 vs. +128.  +106 represents the post-Crisis low dating back to July 2007.
  • Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS was unchanged at 1.21.  The “LUACOAS” wide since 2012 is +215.  +120 is the new tight.
  • Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread widened 1 bp to +166 vs. +165.  The +140 reached on July 30th 2014 represents the post-Crisis low.
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $16.7b on Friday versus $22.5b on Thursday and $18.9b the previous Friday.
  • The 10-DMA stands at $20.6b.

 

Global Market Recap

 

  • U.S. Treasuries – rallied into supply for the second day. Curve flatter for second day.
  • Overseas Bonds – Big rally in Europe led by the long end despite heavy supply.
  • Stocks – mixed & little changed heading into the close.
  • Overseas Stocks – Europe mixed with slightly more green. Asia closed higher.
  • Economic – Non-event in U.S. & Europe. Weaker data in Japan.
  • Currencies – USD had small losses vs. all of the Big 5.
  • Commodities – Crude oil had a small gain despite very bearish inventory data.
  • CDX IG: +1.11 to 66.65
  • CDX HY: +3.07 to 331.64
  • CDX EM: -0.18 to 226.81

CDX levels are as of 3:30PM ET today.

-Tony Farren

 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and February

 

IG Corporate New Issuance This Week
2/06-2/10
vs. Current
WTD – $14.40b
February 2017
Forecasts
vs. Current
MTD – $26.975b
Low-End Avg. $23.74b 60.66% $90.65b 29.76%
Midpoint Avg. $24.72b 58.25% $91.96b 29.33%
High-End Avg. $25.70b 56.03% $93.26b 28.92%
The Low $15b 96.00% $85b 31.74%
The High $35b 41.14% $120b 22.48%

 

The Critically Important French Elections

mischler-frexit-french-election-

Okay so, we all understand that the first round of the French Presidential Elections are held on Sunday, April 23rd.  The most recent election polls show National Front leader Marine Le Pen ahead 26% versus 20.5% for Emmanuel Macron and 18.5% for a fast-sinking Francois Fillon whose fizzling campaign is embroiled in corruption charges. But then there is the run-off Presidential election that is held two weeks later on Sunday on May 7th.  Now, many of you may be very familiar with the concept of the run-off or second election but many are not. In the first April election it is clear that no Presidential candidate will win with the required number of votes or an absolute majority 40-45% with a winning margin of 5-15%.  As a result a run-off election is held between the two candidates with the most votes.  It’s that simple.

There is a history in France of moderate and even conservative parties capturing the liberal votes in an effort to thwart what was once a notoriously nationalistic leaning National Front founded and headed by Marine Le  Pen’s father Jean-Marie.  That is no more.  Marine re-shaped and re-branded the National Front party catapulting it into modern times making it more appealing for contemporary sensibilities while capturing its widest support in its history – thanks to an unlikely strategist named Florian Phillipot.  The first task on the docket toward reinvention of the NF was for Marine to oust her father as the party’s leader.  That was no small task for anyone let alone the daughter of the man at the top of the National Front.  He simply could not remain at the helm with his dated and nationalistic and often times offensive views on certain subjects.  Marine took over and has changed the perception of the NF in France and around the world to make it more palatable and at a critical juncture in history for France. 

 

What has emerged since 2009 when Marine took charge and Phillipot became the NF’s chief strategist, was to tap into France’s silent majority of working class people fed up with the bureaucracy of the European Union.  Having lived in France for five formative years from the ages of 11 thru 16 I know a bit more about French culture and society than the next person.  Make no mistake about it – the French invented the word B-U-R-E-A-U-C-R-A-C-Y.  I saw it at play during my tenure as head of syndicate at BNP Paribas before, during and after that painful merger.  I had seven reporting lines between New York, London and Paris.  It took 6 months to have ideas even considered.  “Bureaucracy” is my point.  French bureaucracy however, is the worst kind.

When I visited with my wife’s Uncle Jean who had been the long-time Police Commissioner of Lyon, France’s second largest city, and de factor gastronomic capital of the world, I sensed his frustration. Here was a man who was an active member of La Resistance during World War II and who saw society at the street level thru his long and respected career in law enforcement.  He was comparable to George Simenon’s Inspector Maigret.  He was very dedicated and hard-working guy.  He always carries an Opinel knife, eats fresh-baked baguette with cheese accompanied by the obligatory glass of Bordeaux.  The French culture wore him well and vice versa but he epitomizes today’s disgruntled, frustrated and concerned Frenchman.  He takes nothing for granted unlike the stigma associated with France that has been enjoying a quality of life for over a decade thanks to neighboring Germany.  He is distraught at the current direction and future of his country and relayed that his former “brothers in arms” the French gendarme are all equally disappointed and concerned. Does this sound familiar?


In 2002 when Le Pen senior made it to the second round of French elections, virtually all of France pooled together to oust him by showing support for Jacques Chirac.  It was more of a vote against Jean-Marie than a vote for Chirac. But today’s National Front, though conservative, is much more inclusive than people think. It would serve at this critical juncture to learn more about its reinvention since Le Pen and Phillipot took the reins. As Phillipot himself has said, “ I didn’t come into this party saying I’m going to go to war against Jean-Marie Le Pen……but he was increasingly out to provoke and his behavior became untenable.  Subsequent to Le Pen’s ouster he in turn said in a nationally broadcast interview “that he wished his daughter no longer bore his name.”

Le Pen and Phillipot took care of business. That business started in the home. They ousted Jean-Marie from his throne of leadership and created a veritable powerhouse National Front party that has been leading in all the polls in France. She is currently projected to win the April election. Meanwhile the conservative party’s candidate M. Fillon had become embroiled in a mess surrounding his having paid his wife hundreds of thousands of dollar (equivalent) over years in a position she never showed up to work for.  Once his public relations handlers attempted to manage that fiasco, it was then revealed that he did the same for his two sons.  The result? He is now running in third place.


The NF has appealed to a similar type of populist movement in France analogous to what we saw here in the U.S. It’s somewhat of a silent majority that feels it needs to restrain open support of Le Pen for fear of being ostracized, criticized and labeled.  But once again, come election day, people will cast their ballot in private. It will be between themselves and the man upstairs.  That’s when voices will once again be heard and reverberate throughout the world.

Should Le Pen becomes France’s next president it will be thanks to our rapidly changing world.  What happened here in the United States is playing out across Europe as well. We saw BREXIT first.  Be prepared for FREXIT next.  It can very likely happen and the EU, which according to many, was destined for failure from the beginning, will be focused on putting all its energies into as orderly an unwind as can be orchestrated.  There have and always will be too many borders, too many cultures, too many histories, too many languages and for that matter too many cuisines in Europe for it to function as a quasi-United States of Europe.  It’s coming so, be prepared as the world reconfigures its alliances, it defense strategies and its economies.  Change is something that NEVER comes easy to any one person let alone countries, continents and hemispheres.  Get ready. If you don’t have the financial stomach for it well, continue buying into the full trust and faith of the United States of America – it’s called BUY TREASURIES.  Yields will tumble despite the Fed’s hawkish tone that will continue when Chair Yellen speaks on February 14th.  If you are a corporate treasury/funding team operative get ready to take full advantage.  As I pointed out yesterday after a relatively long silence for me and being more focused on the Microsoft, AT&T and Apple deals that Mischler was involved in last week, black-outs are upon us and you and your companies will look brilliant when you issue debt in here.  The CT10 closed today 6 bps tighter versus yesterday’s closing yield.  That’s now 26 bps tighter in the last 8 weeks. It’s going lower…….Rates will continue to rally and rates will continue to go lower……..much lower.

 

As Charles de Gaulle once famously said, “Once upon a time there was an old country, wrapped up in habit and caution.  We have to transform our old France into a new country and marry it to its time.”  That time is now.  The National Front would agree that if not at this juncture in time, well, France will likely continue along the same do nothing bureaucratic path more humorously captured by the late great General Norman Schwarzkopf who said “Going to war without France is like going hunting without an accordion.”

 

The EU: It’s All Greek to Me

  eu-faces-collapse-mischler-commentary

To say “Greece is back” would be a gross misrepresentation.  Greece never went away.  The disaster was always there it’s just that so many other EU issues have stolen it’s spotlight……BREXIT, immigration, French elections, etc.  Well, Greece has returned to the proscenium.  Today the IMF effectively announced that Grexit concerns are back on the table. Okay, so what do I mean by “effectively?”  Well, a senior IMF staff member said “Greece cannot grow out of its debt problem.”  Let’s go straight to the numbers here shall we?  “Greek debt will reach 175% of GDP in 3 years…….275% of GDP by 2060.”  Shall I continue?  Sure, why not?  The IMF report just out today also says “our analysis suggests that Greece’s public debt is highly unsustainable…….Even with full implementation of policies agreed under the European Stability Mechanism or ESM program, public debt and financing needs will become EXPLOSIVE!” (caps are mine!)  The National Front, to use an example, isn’t taking a “jump ship” policy approach toward the EU because of this.  The National Front foresaw this year’s and years ago and never wanted to be part of the EU to begin with. That WILL resonate with French voters in April and May elections.  The problems are literally just beginning in Europe.  National Front knows it and wants to take the precautions necessary with their nation to take more control of the French Revolution’s motto of Liberté, égalité, fraternité ……… (translated – freedom, equality and fraternity)……while it still has the chance. Trouble + Concern = Flight-to-Quality folks. You’ll be seeing that clearly illustrated very shortly.  OOPAH!!!!

Below please find my synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary from today’s debt capital markets, including the investment grade corporate bond data drill down as seen from my seat here in Syndicate, Sales and DCM.

 

Have a great evening!

Ron Quigley

 

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

 

Here’s a review of this week’s five key primary market driver averages for IG Corporates only through Wednesday’s session followed by the averages over the prior six weeks:

KEY IG CORPORATE
NEW ISSUE DRIVERS
MON.
2/06
TUES.
2/07
WED.
2/08
AVERAGES
WEEK 1/30
AVERAGES
WEEK 1/23
AVERAGES
WEEK 1/16
AVERAGES
WEEK 1/09
AVERAGES
WEEK 1/02
AVERAGES
WEEK 12/26
New Issue Concessions <3.62> bps <7.5> bps 5.25 bps <0.87> bps 1.13b bps 3.42 bps 0.85 bps 2.25 bps N/A
Oversubscription Rates 4.25x 4.56x 2.18x 3.12x 3.29x 2.40x 2.85x 2.45x N/A
Tenors 12.83 yrs 16.65 yrs 6.40 yrs 11.60 yrs 6.67 yrs 12 yrs 7.83 yrs 6.52 yrs N/A
Tranche Sizes $744mm $850mm $690mm $1,311 yrs $845mm $1,123mm $927mm $859mm N/A
Avg. Spd. Compression
IPTs to Launch
<19.17> bps <25.40> bps <11.5> bps <19.77> bps <18.20> bps <14.69> bps <18.77> bps <15.27> bps N/A

 

New Issues Priced (more…)

Debt & Equity Markets-Suspended Animation?
February 2017      Debt Market Commentary   

Quigley’s Corner 02.07.17 Debt & Equity Financial Markets: Suspended Animation

 

Investment Grade Corporate Debt New Issue Re-Cap

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points –Citigroup tap.

Global Market Recap

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and February

In Our Fast Changing World, Markets Remain in Suspended Animation

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

UST Resistance/Support Table

New Issues Priced

Indexes and New Issue Volume

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending January 25th     

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

IG Credit Spreads by Industry

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline

Tomorrow’s Calendar


4 IG Corporate issuers priced 5 tranches between them totaling $4.25b.  Additionally, 4 SSA issuers contributed 4 tranches boosted the all-in day total by $5.5b for an all-n IG tally of $9.75b.

The WTD IG Corporate total is now $10.95b or 44% of this week’s syndicate midpoint average forecast of $24.72b.

 

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points – Mischler Serves as “passive” Jr. Co-Manager on Citigroup tap.

 

  • Mischler Financial served as a “passive” Jr. Co-Manager on today’s tap of the Citigroup 4.75% due 5/18/2046. Book size finished at $1.9b for a 2.53x bid-to-cover rate.  The outstanding was seen T+173 bid pre-announcement this morning meaning NIC was flat or “0” on today’s tap.  Thanks to Team Citi Treasury/Funding and Syndicate and Origination.  Shout out to Citi’s Jeff Hopsicker for today’s deal download! Always appreciated!
  • The average spread from IPTs thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 5 IG Corporate-only new issues was <25.40> bps.
  • BAML’s IG Master Index tightened 1 bp to +127 vs. +128.  +106 represents the post-Crisis low dating back to July 2007.
  • Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS was unchanged at 1.21.  The “LUACOAS” wide since 2012 is +215.  +120 is the new tight.
  • Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread widened 1 bp to +166 vs. +165.  The +140 reached on July 30th 2014 represents the post-Crisis low.
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $16.7b on Friday versus $22.5b on Thursday and $18.9b the previous Friday.
  • The 10-DMA stands at $20.6b.

 

Global Market Recap

  • U.S. Treasuries – closed mixed with a flatter curve. The 30yr was the top performer.
  • Overseas Bonds – JGB’s little changed. EU core & semi core better & Peripherals mixed.
  • Stocks – U.S. stocks higher heading into close. Record highs for the Dow & NASDAQ.
  • Overseas Stocks – Europe closed mixed. FTSE 250 record high close. Asia red.
  • Economic – Trade balance close to expectations & JOLTS weaker than expected.
  • Overseas Economic – Better data in Japan and weaker data in Germany & the U.K.
  • Currencies – Solid day for USD despite giving up some o/n gains during NY hours.
  • Commodities – CRB, crude oil & copper down while gold & wheat up.
  • CDX IG: +0.59 to 65.35
  • CDX HY: +2.20 to 327.68
  • CDX EM: +2.41 to 226.99

CDX levels are as of 3:30PM ET today.

-Tony Farren

 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and February

 

IG Corporate New Issuance This Week
2/06-2/10
vs. Current
WTD – $10.95b
February 2017
Forecasts
vs. Current
MTD – $23.525b
Low-End Avg. $23.74b 46.12% $90.65b 25.95%
Midpoint Avg. $24.72b 44.30% $91.96b 25.58%
High-End Avg. $25.70b 42.61% $93.26b 25.23%
The Low $15b 73.00% $85b 27.68%
The High $35b 31.29% $120b 19.60%

 

In Our Fast Changing World, Markets Remain in Suspended Animation

financial-markets-suspended-animation-mischler-comment

There is nothing more intimidating than staring at the white or empty background of my daily “QC” each and every day and wondering how to fill it with something meaningful for YOU!

But, I do it every day.  It’s been a while – given last week’s Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), AT&T (NYSE:ATT) and Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)jumbo deals that we were on, since I’ve scribed anything geopolitical in nature. One reason is that scratching the surface of any of today’s myriad current event risk factors poses a challenge to opining either way.

There is no middle ground any more.  (Not that that’s ever been an issue with me!) What I have extolled here for years is the incredibly rapid pace of change coming to our inextricably-linked new world order, or “disorder” if I may.  The changes seem to be happening faster and faster.  Trading markets historically embrace change because it breeds volatility and volatility, in turn, begets profitability.  Here’s the catch though – we’re not seeing that kind of volatility.  Take U.S. Treasury markets for example.  I spoke at length with my Rates Team today and they agree – they cannot remember the last time the world changed so fast, yet markets seem to be held in suspended animation. Technically, suspended animation is the slowing or stopping of life processes by exogenous or endogenous means without termination.  Breathing, heartbeat and other involuntary functions may still occur, but they can only be detected by artificial means.  What’s different about the current global environment is that the changes are happening so fast that real-time, second-by-second market traders don’t really know what to do.

The market is waiting for such things as a tax reform package that would have necessary support.  Speaker of the House, Paul Ryan says that may not happen until the Fall!  Oh my!  Meanwhile, there are elections coming to France in April and the run-off election in May.  National Front leader Marine Le Pen will win the election.  When she does, France will have finally pulled up its big boy pants with a woman at the helm and proceed to depart the EU.  What Italy does really doesn’t matter given it’s 70-off post-war governments.  Angela Merkel’s legacy will be remembered as a failure and the EU could even split into a Northern Euro and leave the others on their own.  Whatever happens, change is coming fast to that continent as it is all over the world.  Traders today are like the elderly; change does not and will not come easy.

Buy or sell. Investors are so confused as to what to do they are content – as opposed to “happy” – to sideline themselves, remain inactive and let the noise be the noise.  Levered accounts however are doing all the business.  Black box trades, hedge funds, etc are all going the same direction and then suddenly BOOM the ground falls out beneath them.…..and that’s never a good thing.

It all has to do with P-O-L-I-T-C-S folks.  Traders and investors are perplexed and therefore sidelined to avoid a fall of monumental proportions. We will see a continued progressive flight into safe havens like U.S. Treasuries. Speaking of which, the CT10 has tightened 20 bps in the last eight weeks.  It is no coincidence that within that same time frame we have priced the highest volume month in investment grade new issue history as UST’s slowly but surely rally as yields continue southbound.  YTD we have amassed a staggering all-in IG Corporate and SSA total volume or $258 billion!  That’s a quarter trillion in five-and-a-half weeks! Black out exits bode very well for investors looking for the perfect balance between lower risk and higher yields in the investment grade debt capital markets.  Get ready because there is plenty of business coming very soon.

Below please find my synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary from today’s debt capital markets, including the investment grade corporate bond data drill down as seen from my seat here in Syndicate, Sales and DCM.

 

Have a great evening!

Ron Quigley

 

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

 

Here’s a review of this week’s five key primary market driver averages for IG Corporates only through Monday’s session followed by the averages over the prior six weeks:

KEY IG CORPORATE
NEW ISSUE DRIVERS
MON.
2/06
AVERAGES
WEEK 1/30
AVERAGES
WEEK 1/23
AVERAGES
WEEK 1/16
AVERAGES
WEEK 1/09
AVERAGES
WEEK 1/02
AVERAGES
WEEK 12/26
New Issue Concessions <3.62> bps <0.87> bps 1.13b bps 3.42 bps 0.85 bps 2.25 bps N/A
Oversubscription Rates 4.25x 3.12x 3.29x 2.40x 2.85x 2.45x N/A
Tenors 12.83 yrs 11.60 yrs 6.67 yrs 12 yrs 7.83 yrs 6.52 yrs N/A
Tranche Sizes $744mm $1,311 yrs $845mm $1,123mm $927mm $859mm N/A
Avg. Spd. Compression
IPTs to Launch
<19.17> bps <19.77> bps <18.20> bps <14.69> bps <18.77> bps <15.27> bps N/A

 

Economic Data Releases

 

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA PERIOD SURVEYED ESTIMATES ACTUAL NUMBER PRIOR NUMBER PRIOR REVISED
Trade Balance December <$45.00b> <$44.3b> <$45.2b> <$45.7b>
JOLTS Job Openings December 5580 5501 5522 5505
Consumer Credit December $20.000b $14.160b $24.532b $25.205b

 

Rates Trading Lab

In the short run, there is a lot of supply overnight in Europe. Greece bills, German 10yr, Portugal 2022 & 2024, Sweden 2022 & 2026, Denmark 2021 & 2027, Switzerland 2030 & 2049, Czech Rep 2020 & 2027, a Finland syndicated 5yr & 30yr (timing TBD), Russia 2022 & 2031, not to mention our 10yr tomorrow. BOE does have a buyback in the belly of the curve, for what it’s worth. Therefore, going home short for a trade is not a crazy concept to me. However, reading the tea leaves, judging from the price action and looking at how TIPS trade is telling me that there is money coming off the sidelines, destined for our long end. Narrowing break-evens tell me that there have been flows into nominals to get some convexity on the books. You don’t do that if you think rates are rising. To me it’s all part of the reality check we are in the midst of. Timing of fiscal and tax policies and the FOMC all play havoc with market expectations. It does not mean we are not in a bear bond market. In fact, the price action we are seeing is more consistent with that of a bear market. But as I have said time and again, bear trap rallies are vicious and merciless, and all the more difficult when it comes amidst a supply event.

-Jim Levenson       

 

UST Resistance/Support Table

 

CT3 CT5 CT7 CT10 CT30
RESISTANCE LEVEL 100-012 100-13 100-31 97-07 98-07
RESISTANCE LEVEL 99-31+ 100-10 100-26 96-31+ 97-31
RESISTANCE LEVEL 99-30+ 100-086 100-22+ 96-25+ 97-15
           
SUPPORT LEVEL 99-27 100-00 100-08+ 96-08 96-25
SUPPORT LEVEL 99-266 99-28+ 100-03+ 96-01+ 96-04
SUPPORT LEVEL 99-252 99-246 99-30+ 95-27 95-25

New Issues Priced (more…)

MSFT Mega Bond Deal Dashboard- Top 10 Biggest Debt Deals, Ever
January 2017      Debt Market Commentary   

Quigley’s Corner 01.30.17 Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) Mega Bond Deal: To

 

Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap  – Microsoft Pumps Up Volume with $17b 7-Part That Tied for 9th Largest Issue in History

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and January 

Microsoft’s $17b 7-Part Deal Dashboard
NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

New Issues Priced

Indexes and New Issue Volume
Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending January 25th     

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

IG Credit Spreads by Industry 
New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline

Economic Data Releases

Tomorrow’s Calendar

 

microsoft-mega-bond-deal-mischler

Microsoft pushed up YTD and MTD volume with its mega  $17b 7-part Senior Notes new issue today across 3s, 5s, 7s, 10s, 20s, 30s and 40-year tranches.  As a result, we are within a breath of the all-time highest volume month for all-in (IG Corporates plus SSA) issuance.  The number one ranked month is the $213.40b priced in May 2016.  We are literally a mere $268 million away from breaking thru that number.  The record should come tomorrow.

MTD we’ve already blown past the syndicate desk midpoint average forecast by an amazing 72% or $158.23b vs. $91.96b. As for my call for $160b well, it’s looking pretty smart, if I may be so bold as to say.  As for the WTD syndicate projection, we’ve already priced 82% of the forecast for this week or $17.85b vs. $21.63b.  Pretty incredible stuff right there folks!

Mischler Financial was honored to serve as an active Co-Manager on today’s mega Microsoft deal.  So let’s first run through the recaps and volume tables before I get to the MSFT Deal Dashboard.

 

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

 

  • Today’s $17b 7-part Microsoft new issue tied for 9th place as the largest issue on record.
  • January 2017 is only $268mm away from becoming the highest volume month in history for all-in (IG Corporate plus SSA) issuance.
  • USAA Capital Corp. upsized its 2yr 144a Senior FRNs due 2/01/2019 new issue to $350mm from $300mm at the launch and at the tightest side of guidance.
  • The average spread compression from IPTs thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 9 IG Corporate-only new issues was <17.22> bps.
  • BAML’s IG Master Index tightened 1 bp to +126 vs. +127.  +106 represents the post-Crisis low dating back to July 2007.
  • Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS was unchanged at +120.  The “LUACOAS” wide since 2012 is +215.  +120 is the new tight.
  • Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread was unchanged at +164.  The +140 reached on July 30th 2014 represents the post-Crisis low.
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $21.2b on Thursday versus $23.0b on Wednesday and $23.5b the previous Thursday.
  • The 10-DMA stands at $19.3b.

 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and January 

 

IG Corporate New Issuance This Week
1/30-2/03
vs. Current
WTD – $17.85b
January 2017
Forecasts
vs. Current
MTD – $158.233b
Low-End Avg. $20.96b 85.16% $90.65b 174.55%
Midpoint Avg. $21.63b 82.52% $91.96b 172.07%
High-End Avg. $22.30b 80.04% $93.26b 169.67%
The Low $10b 178.5% $85b 186.16%
The High $27b 66.11% $120b 131.86%

 

Microsoft’s $17b 7-Part Deal Dashboard

Here’s a look at price compression from early morning initial price thoughts through guidance and the launch and final pricing of today’s $17b 7-part mega deal that tied for the 9th largest deal in history along with Apple’s April 30th, 2013 new issue and MDT’S deal that priced on 12/01/2014.

Today’s seven tranches posted a cumulative average contraction of <17.14> bps through price evolution or IPTs to the launch and final pricing.

Here’s a look at how it all evolved:

 

MSFT Issue IPTs GUIDANCE LAUNCH PRICED Spread
Compression
NICs
(bps)
Trading +/-
3yr +60a +45a (+/-5) +40 +40 <20> bps 4 39/ <1>
5yr +70a +55a (+/-5) +50 +50 <20> bps 4 48/ <2>
7yr +90a +75a (+/-5) +70 +70 <20> bps 11 68/ <2>
10yr +100a +90a (+/-5) +85 +85 <15> bps 11 84/ <1>
20yr +115a +105a (+/-5) +100 +100 <15> bps 10 97/ <3>
30yr +130a +120a (+/-5) +115 +115 <15> bps 10 113/ <2>
40yr +155a +145a (+/-5) +140 +140 <15> bps 15 138/ <2>

 

……….and here’s a look at final book sizes and oversubscription rates that amounted to $36.9b for an overall bid-to-cover rate of 2.17x:

 

MSFT Issue Tranche Size Final Book
Size
Bid-to-Cover
Rate
3yr 1,500 3,700 2.47x
5yr 1,750 3,400 1.94x
7yr 2,250 5,600 2.49
10yr 4,000 7,700 1.925x
20yr 2,500 5,600 2.24x
30yr 3,000 6,200 2.07x
40yr 2,000 4,700 2.35x

 

 

Diversity & Inclusion- Powered by Microsoft  

Mischler Financial, the nation’s oldest Service Disabled Veteran broker-dealer was honored to once again be a very active part of Microsoft’s contributing Co-Manager Group.  Thanks to Microsoft’s top/down internal inclusion mandate, several diversity firms offered a chance to highlight their distribution capabilities.  Team Mischler thanks all of you at Microsoft and applauds your focus and commitment to strive to create an internal as well as external environment that helps Microsoft capitalize on the diversity of your people and the inclusion of ideas and business solutions to meet the needs of your increasingly global and diverse customer base.  Microsoft truly believes that building the best software means incorporating the talents of its varied workforce into its products and recognizing the needs and priorities of its diverse suppliers, customers and business partner base.  Not only do your products make the world smaller and more accessible to everyone but your corporate governance overlays that technology with an inclusive mandate that eliminates barriers, improves businesses and encourages a healthy spirit of competition among competing broker dealers. Hey, it’s all about setting a great example from the top of the Company across to its employees, vendors and customers.  It starts from the top down and in Microsoft’s case it all begins within the office of CEO and Indian-American, Satya Nadella.  For their meaningful and long standing D&I ambition, and for leading by example, you are all the recipient of this evening’s Mischler five-star salute.  We appreciate the opportunity to serve you today and for affording us the chance to expand our platform by accessing your new issue for our rapidly expanding high quality distribution network.  So, thank you all very much.

Thanks also to all of our high quality global accounts who cumulatively contributed a total of 143 individual orders and a total of $439 million across today’s 7-part Senior transaction.  We’re happy when you are happy and by giving us this great opportunity today those accounts have elevated their trust and respect for what we work hard to do here each every day at Mischler Financial.

 

Microsoft Final Pricing

MSFT $1.5bn 1.85% due 2/6/20 @ $99.933 to yield 1.873% or T+40. MW+10.

MSFT $1.75bn 2.40% due 2/6/22 @ $99.785 to yield 2.446% or T+50. MW+10.

MSFT $2.25bn 2.875% due 2/6/24 @ $99.272 to yield 2.991% or T+70. MW+12.5.

MSFT $4bn 3.30% due 2/6/27 @ $99.645 to yield 3.342% or T+85. MW+15.

MSFT $2.5bn 4.10%due 2/6/37 @ $99.783 to yield 4.116% or T+100. MW+15.

MSFT $3bn 4.25% due 2/6/47 @ $99.731 to yield 4.266% or T+115. MW+20.

MSFT $2bn 4.50% due 2/6/57 @ $99.705 to yield 4.516% or T+140. MW+25.

 

 

Below please find my synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary from today’s debt capital markets, including the investment grade corporate bond data drill down as seen from my seat here in Syndicate, Sales and DCM.

 

Have a great evening!

Ron Quigley

 

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

 

…..and here’s another look at last week’s day-by-day re-cap of key primary market driver averages for IG Corporates only followed by the prior six week’s averages:

KEY IG CORPORATE
NEW ISSUE DRIVERS
MON.
1/23
TUES.
1/24
WED.
1/25
Th.
1/26
FRI.
1/27
AVERAGES
WEEK 1/23
AVERAGES
WEEK 1/16
AVERAGES
WEEK 1/09
AVERAGES
WEEK 1/02
AVERAGES
WEEK 12/26
AVERAGES
WEEK 12/19
New Issue Concessions 0.94 bps 0.58 bps 0.33 bps 6 bps N./A 1.13b bps 3.42 bps 0.85 bps 2.25 bps N/A N/A
Oversubscription Rates 2.60x 2.88x 4.82x 1.89x N/A 3.29x 2.40x 2.85x 2.45x N/A N/A
Tenors 8.54 yrs 5.75 yrs 6.11 yrs 9 yrs N/A 6.67 yrs 12 yrs 7.83 yrs 6.52 yrs N/A N/A
Tranche Sizes $1,006mm $581mm $883mm $1,000mm N/A $845mm $1,123mm $927mm $859mm N/A N/A
Avg. Spd. Compression
IPTs to Launch
<15.61> yrs <18.12> bps <23> bps <8.5> bps N/A <18.20> bps <14.69> bps <18.77> bps <15.27> bps N/A N/A

 

New Issues Priced

Today’s recap of visitors to our IG dollar Corporate and SSA DCM:

For ratings I use the better two of Moody’s, S&P or Fitch.

 

IG          

Issuer Ratings Coupon Maturity Size IPTs GUIDANCE LAUNCH PRICED
Crown Castle Int’l. Corp. Baa3/BBB- 4.00% 3/01/2027 500 +175-180 +160a (+/-3) +157 +157
Microsoft Corp. Aaa/AAA 1.85% 2/06/2020 1,500 +60a +45a (+/-5) +40 +40
Microsoft Corp. Aaa/AAA 2.40% 2/06/2022 1,750 +70a +55a (+/-5) +50 +50
Microsoft Corp. Aaa/AAA 2.875% 2/06/2024 2,250 +90a +75a (+/-5) +70 +70
Microsoft Corp. Aaa/AAA 3.30% 2/06/2027 4,000 +100a +90a (+/-5) +85 +85
Microsoft Corp. Aaa/AAA 4.10% 2/06/2037 2,500 +115a +105a (+/-5) +100 +100
Microsoft Corp. Aaa/AAA 4.25% 2/06/2047 3,000 +130a +120a (+/-5) +115 +115
Microsoft Corp. Aaa/AAA 4.50% 2/06/2057 2,000 +155a +145a (+/-5) +140 +140
USAA Capital Corp. Aa1/AA FRN 2/01/2019 350 3mL+high30s/
+37.5a
3mL+23-25 3mL+23 3mL+23

 

 

Indexes and New Issue Volume
*Denotes new tight.

 

Index Open Current Change
IG27 64.157 65.788 1.631
HV27 135.835 137.765 1.93
VIX *10.58 11.88 1.30
S&P 2,294 2,280 <14>
DOW 20,093 19,971 <122>
 

USD

 

IG Corporates

 

USD

 

Total (IG + SSA)

DAY: $17.85 bn DAY: $18.10 bn
WTD: $17.85 bn WTD: $18.10 bn
MTD: $158.233 bn MTD: $213.133 bn
YTD: $158.233 bn YTD: $213.133 bn

 

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending January 25th     

     

  • For the week ended January 25th, Lipper U.S. Fund Flows reported an inflow of $1.589b into Corporate Investment Grade Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $9.697b) and a net outflow of $532.417m from High Yield Funds (2016 YTD net outflow of $121.533m).
  • Over the same period, Lipper reported a net inflow of $1.024b into Loan Participation Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $3.769b).
  • Emerging Market debt funds reported a net outflow of $149.265m (2016 YTD inflow of $165.602m).

 

IG Credit Spreads by Rating (more…)

Pre-Presidential Inauguration: Big Banks Float Boatload of Debt Deals
January 2017      Debt Market Commentary   

Quigley’s Corner 01.17.17 – Big Banks Issue Boatloads of Debt; Investor Appetite for IG Debt is Resilient 

 

Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap – “Banking” on Change – 3 Big FIGs Unleash 3 Deals, 9 Tranches and $18.75b on Heels of Strong Q4 ’16 Earnings.

Global Market Recap

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for January 

Morgan Stanley Inc. $3b 10 year Deal Dashboard

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

New Issues Priced

Indexes and New Issue Volume

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending January 11th     

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

Tomorrow’s Calendar

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

IG Credit Spreads by Industry

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline

 

As Bloomberg Gladfy columnist Lisa Abramowicz pointed out in her Jan 6 story “The Credit Boom Just Won’t Die”, –which included your’s truly cited for providing the most accurate forecast re debt issuance, three more banks joined the pre-Presidential Inauguration day fray to satisfy investors’ insatiable appetite for Investment Grade debt and floated $20.75bil in fresh paper, breaking the weekly fixed income syndicate forecast in a single day.. 

6 IG Corporate issuers announced a total of 13 tranches between them totaling $20.75b.  But, make no mistake about it, the day belonged to the Big FIGs Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo who between them accounted for  9 of the tranches and just over 90% of the day’s volume.  We are now one day into the holiday-shortened week, yet we’ve already priced 90% of this week’s syndicate midpoint average estimate calling for $23.07b.  Tomorrow looks to be loaded with SSA issuers who were absent today yet who began taken IOIs on tomorrow’s deals.  Slated for Tuesday are IBRD, OKB, KBN, FMS and CPPIB Capital.  So, heavy IG all-in volume is expected therein.

Mischler Financial served as a “passive” Co-Manager on today’s 10-year fixed rate tranche of Morgan Stanley’s three-part 5NC4, 10s and 30s making it today’s Deal-of-the-Day for the nation’s oldest Service Disabled Veteran broker-dealer.  Let’s run down Global, Primary and Secondary Market Recaps and then I’ll get to the MS 3-part drill-down.

 

Global Market Recap

 

  • U.S. Treasuries – Strong session for USTs after Trump said the USD is too strong.
  • Overseas Bonds – JGB’s closed with gains. Europe had more green than red.
  • 3mth Libor – Set at its highest yield since May 2009 (1.02483%).
  • Stocks – The NASDAQ was leading stocks south at 3:30pm.
  • Overseas Stocks – Europe more red than green. Nikkei red. China/HS closed higher.
  • Economic – Light calendar in the U.S. Japan & Europe were better. U.K. CPI higher.
  • Currencies – Trump said the USD was too strong & now it is not as strong.
  • Commodities – Crude oil small gain. Gold & silver were strong. Copper hit hard.
  • CDX IG: +0.97 to 66.79
  • CDX HY: +3.11 to 354.22
  • CDX EM: -1.15 to 233.23

*CDX levels are as of 3:30PM ET today.

-Tony Farren

 

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

 

  • Regency Centers LP upsized today’s two-part 10s/30s Senior Notes new issue to $650mm from $600mm at the launch and at the tightest side of guidance.
  • The average spread compression from IPTs thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 13 IG Corporate-only new issues was <14.04> bps.
  • BAML’s IG Master Index tightened 1 bp to +128 vs. +129.  +106 represents the post-Crisis low dating back to July 2007.
  • Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS was unchanged at +122.  The “LUACOAS” wide since 2012 is +215. The tight is +122.
  • Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread was unchanged at +166.  The +140 reached on July 30th 2014 represents the post-Crisis low.
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $13.7b on Friday versus $19.4b on Thursday and $18.1b the previous Friday.

 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for January 

 

IG Corporate New Issuance This Week
1/16-1/20
vs. Current
WTD – $20.75b
January 2017
Forecasts
vs. Current
MTD – $108.283b
Low-End Avg. $22.20b 93.47% $107.87b 100.38%
Midpoint Avg. $23.07b 89.94% $108.41b 99.88%
High-End Avg. $23.93b 86.71% $108.96b 99.38%
The Low $15b 138.33% $80b 135.35%
The High $36b 57.64 $145b 74.68%

 

Morgan Stanley Inc. $3b 10 year Deal Dashboard

 

This morning prior to the market open, Morgan Stanley posted its strongest quarterly earnings since the Financial Crisis and outperformed Q4 2015 by $950 million thanks to a bond trading revival that boosted MS’s bottom line.  Q4 ’16 Bond trading revenues surged $1.47b or 167% beating analyst’s estimates by $500mm.  That is the single largest amount among six-pack banks that have reported with Citigroup and Goldman Sachs posting tomorrow. Much the recent quarter activity is attributable to market expectations that Donald Trump and his cabinet will boost economic growth, revamp more favorable corporate tax policies and create more of a rising rate environment than the snail’s pace we’ve gotten used to.  Morgan Stanley’s Q4 net income rose 83% to $1.67b or $0.81 EPS vs. $908mm and $0.39 in Q4 2015.

Mischler served as a “passive” 1.00% Co-Manager on Morgan Stanley’s $3b 10-year tranche of their $7b three-part 5NC4, 10s and 30s.

For 10yr fair value I looked at the outstanding MS 2.625% due 11/17/2021 that was T+134 (G+136) pre-announcement landing NIC as 7 bps against today’s final +143 new 10yr pricing.

The new 5yr that priced at 3mL +118 looked to the outstanding MS 2.625 due 11/17/2021 that was seen T+107 bid pre-announcement or G+109.5 pegging NIC on today’s new 5yr as 8.5 bps to the 5yr bullet.

The 30yr comped best to the MS 4.30% due 1/27/2045 T+133 nailing today’s new 30 yr NIC as 15 bps versus today’s final T+148 pricing.

 

As for Morgan’s inclusive focus on veterans and veteran initiatives and Mischler’s designation to play a role in this transaction, Morgan Stanley Chairman and Chief Executive Officer James Gorman says, “Morgan Stanley thanks you for your service.  The military’s emphasis on the mission and the team, leadership accountability and continuous improvement aligns well with the culture of our Firm.”

To Mr. Gorman: It’s an honor to serve on your transaction. We always stand at the ready for you and Team Morgan Stanley.

 

 

MS Issue IPTs GUIDANCE LAUNCH PRICED Spread
Compression
NICs
(bps)
Trading at
the Break
+/-
(bps)
5yr 3mL+125a 3mL+120
(+/-2)
3mL+118 3mL+118 <7> bps 8.5 117/116 <1>
10yr FXD +155a +145a (+/-2) +143 +143 <12> bps 7 bps 143/141 0/flat
30yr +160a +150a (+/-2) +148 +148 <12> bps 15 bps 141/139 <7>

 

………and here’s a look at final book sizes and oversubscription rates:

 

MS  Issue Tranche Size Final Book
Size
Bid-to-Cover
Rate
5yr $1.75b $2.75b 1.57x
10yr FXD $3b $5.5b 1.83x
30yr $2.25b $5.1b 2.27x

 

Final Pricing – Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS)
MS $1.75b 3mL+118 due 1/20/2022 5NC4 FRN at $100.00

MS $3b 3.625% 10yr FXD due 1/20/2027 @ $98.999 to yield 3.746% or T+143  MW+25

MS $2.25b 4.375% 30yr FXD due 1/20/2047 @ $99.322 to yield 4.416% or T+148  MW+25

 

Below please find my synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary from today’s debt capital markets, including the investment grade corporate bond data drill down as seen from my seat here in Syndicate, Sales and DCM.

Have a great evening!

Ron Quigley, Managing Director & Head of Fixed Income Syndicate

 

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

 

KEY IG CORPORATE
NEW ISSUE DRIVERS
MON.
1/09
TUES.
1/10
WED.
1/11
TH.
1/12
FRI.
1/13
AVERAGES
WEEK 1/09
AVERAGES
WEEK 1/02
AVERAGES
WEEK 12/26
AVERAGES
WEEK 12/19
AVERAGES
WEEK 12/12
AVERAGES
WEEK 12/05
New Issue Concessions 0.57 bps 0.83 bps 0.67 bps 6.50 bps N/A 0.85 bps 2.25 bps N/A N/A <0.50> bps 4.26 bps
Oversubscription Rates 3.02x 2.85x 2.70x 2.70x N/A 2.85x 2.45x N/A N/A 2.41x 3.68x
Tenors 9.09 years 5.40 yrs 8 yrs 5.67 yrs N/A 7.83 yrs 6.52 yrs N/A N/A 10.67 yrs 9.21 yrs
Tranche Sizes $613mm $433mm $1,577mm $667mm N/A $927mm $859mm N/A N/A $708mm $760mm
Avg. Spd. Compression
IPTs to Launch
<15.32> bps <19.83> bps <21.46> bps <23.75> bps N/A <18.77> bps <15.27> bps N/A N/A <17.17> bps <22.24> bps

…..and here’s another look at last week’s day-by-day re-cap of key primary market driver averages for IG Corporates only followed by the prior six week’s averages:

 

New Issues Priced

Today’s recap of visitors to our IG dollar Corporate and SSA DCM:

For ratings I use the better two of Moody’s, S&P or Fitch.

 *Please note that Baptist Health South Florida Obligated Group priced on Monday, January 9th but was posted today.  It is italicized in the below table for informational purposes only but is not included in today’s IG Corporate day total.  The New Issue Volume tables below have been updated to reflect its inclusion.  Thanks! -RQ

IG          

Issuer Ratings Coupon Maturity Size IPTs GUIDANCE LAUNCH PRICED LEADS
Bank of America Baa1/A FRN 1/20/2023
6NC5
750 3mL+equiv 3mL+116 the # 3mL+116 3mL+116 BAC-sole
Bank of America Baa1/A 3.124% 1/20/2023
6NC5
1,500 +140 +130 the # +130 +130 BAC-sole
Bank of America Baa1/A 3.824% 1/20/2028
11NC10
2,500 +165a +150a (+/-2) +150 +150 BAC-sole
Bank of America Baa1/A 4.443% 1/20/2048
31NC30
2,000 +165a +150a (+/-2) +150 +150 BAC-sole
Guardian Life Ins. Co. of America AA-/AA- 4.85% 1/24/2077 350 +low 200s
+200-225/+212.5a
+200a (+/-5) +195 +195 CS/DB/JPM/MS
Kroger Co. Baa1/BBB 4.45% 2/01/2047 1,000 +160a +150 the # +150 +150 BAML/RBC/USB(a) + 3 (p)
Morgan Stanley A3/A FRN 1/20/2022
5NC4
1,750 3mL+125a 3mL+120 (+/-2) 3mL+118 3mL+118 MS-sole
Morgan Stanley A3/A 3.625% 1/20/2027 3,000 +155a +145a (+/-2) +143 +143 MS-sole
Morgan Stanley A3/A 4.375% 1/20/2047 2,250 +160a +150a (+/-2) +148 +148 MS-sole
Regency Centers LP Baa1/BBB+ 3.60% 2/01/2027 350 +150a +135a (+/-5) +130 +130 BAML/JPM/USB/WFS
Regency Centers LP Baa1/BBB+ 4.40% 2/01/2047 300 +175a +155a (+/-5) +150 +150 BAML/JPM/USB/WFS
Wells Fargo & Co. A2/AA- FRN 1/24/2023
6NC5
1,250 3mL+equiv (+125a) 3mL+111 the # 3mL+111 3mL+111 WFS-sole
Wells Fargo & Co. A2/AA- 3.069% 1/24/2023
6NC5
3,750 +140a +125 the # +125 +125 WFS-sole

 

 Indexes and New Issue Volume

*Denotes 52-week low.

Index Open Current Change
IG27 65.82 66.428 0.608
HV27 140.34 139.90 <0.44>
VIX *11.23 11.86 0.63
S&P 2,274 2,267 <7>
DOW 19,885 19,826 <59>
 

USD

 

IG Corporates

 

USD

 

Total IG (+SSA)

DAY: $20.75 bn DAY: 20.75 bn
WTD: $20.75 bn WTD: 20.75 bn
MTD: $108.283 bn MTD: $137.033 bn
YTD: $108.283 bn YTD: $137.033 bn

 

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending January 11th     

     

  • For the week ended January 11th, Lipper U.S. Fund Flows reported an inflow of $4.029b into Corporate Investment Grade Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $6.215b) and a net inflow of $563.51m into High Yield Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $1.298b).
  • Over the same period, Lipper reported a net inflow of $1.332b into Loan Participation Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $2.197b).
  • Emerging Market debt funds reported a net inflow of $172.277m (2016 YTD inflow of $237.428m).

 

Economic Data Releases

 

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA PERIOD SURVEYED ESTIMATES ACTUAL NUMBER PRIOR NUMBER PRIOR REVISED
Empire Manufacturing January 8.5 6.5 9.0 7.6

 

Rates Trading Lab

 

The week is off to an interesting start. Today we had some unwinding of the Trump trade with Treasuries rallying, stocks selling off and the USD getting whacked. The market is starting to realize Trump plans will have many hurdles to get over before they become a reality. At the 3pm close, benchmark Treasuries were better bid by 3.7 bps (2yr: 1.156%) to 5.8 bps (5yr: 1.826%).

 

Today’s highlights were:

 

  • President-Elect Trump told the WSJ the USD was already too strong and the USD paid a severe price for the comment. The USD was hit hard by all of the Big 5.
  • This morning, U.K. PM Theresa May said she will not pursue membership in the EU single market system. The Pound which had been under heavy pressure last week rallied on the May & Trump comments. It was the best day the Pound has had vs. the USD since 2008.
  • NY Fed President Dudley (voter/very dovish) was very dovish this morning. Dudley said the Fed is unlikely to snuff out the U.S. economic expansion and inflation is not a problem.
  • Conversely, Fed Gov. Brainard (dove) was hawkish in her comments today. Brainard was the 3rd Fed member in the New Year (2017) to mention the Fed balance sheet. Last Thursday St. Louis Fed Pres. Bullard (non-voter) and Dallas Fed Pres. Kaplan (voter) also mentioned the balance sheet. Something to keep your eye on.

 

UST Resistance/Support Table

 

CT3 CT5 CT7 CT10 CT30
RESISTANCE LEVEL 100-272 101-106 101-16 98-04+ 100-16
RESISTANCE LEVEL 99-31+ 101-046 101-07 97-24+ 99-25
RESISTANCE LEVEL 99-30 100-30 100-31 97-13+ 99-16
         
SUPPORT LEVEL 99-27 100-226 100-20 96-30 98-13
SUPPORT LEVEL 99-252 100-196 100-10 96-17 97-26
SUPPORT LEVEL 99-24 100-142 100-03 96-09 97-06

 

Tomorrow’s Calendar

 

  • China Data: Nothing Scheduled
  • Japan Data: Nothing Scheduled
  • Australia: Westpac Consumer Confidence
  • EU Data: German Dec CPI, EU Dec CPI, U.K. Dec Unem/Nov Earns
  • U.S. Data: MBA, Dec CPI, Dec IP/CapU, Jan NAHB, Nov TIC
  • Supply: ECB 7d$, BoC
  • Events: Nouy, Yellen, Kashkari, Kaplan, Olsen

(more…)

Corporate Bond New Issuance Elasticity: Get It While Its Hot
January 2017      Debt Market Commentary   

Quigley’s Corner 01.06.17 Weekend Edition: Investment Grade Corpoate Bond New Issuance & Spread Elasticity: Get It While It’s Hot

 

Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap 

My Thoughts re: Next Week’s Issuance

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for January 

The Best and the Brightest” – Investment Grade New Issuance Forecasts Next Week 

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

This Week’s IG New Issues and Where They’re Trading

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending January 4th     

IG Credit Spreads by Rating / Industry

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

 

It was a no-print Friday today and a well-deserved one at that considering yesterday was the 4th busiest ever in our dollar IG DCM. We priced $53.233b in new IG Corporate-only product this week in just three days and $65.233b including SSA issuance!  What a heck of a start to the New Year!  This morning’s NFP number was another very strong one posting a 156k payroll increase versus 175k estimates or 17% better than expected.  You know what that means…….with labor shortages expected throughout 2017, wages will increase and when wages increase people spend more money and when people spend more money the Fed is more likely to raise rates!  But let’s not get ahead of ourselves.  We have a big January 20th inauguration ahead of us that should make for great TV before Trump & Co. institute rapid change with a Republican controlled Beltway. But before that our U.S. six-pack big FIGs release earnings beginning on January 13th thru the 18th which leaves next week open prior to that deluge.  In speaking to the “Best and the Brightest” in the world of syndicate this morning it’s looking like we drop off a lot from this week but then again $30b, $35b, $40b speaks volumes about just how incredible this week was.  Allow me to opine therein and then let’s re-cap things first before I invite you all to join me as we visit with each of the top 23 syndicate desks in our IG dollar DCM to hear their thoughts, numbers and ranges for next week.

 

My Thoughts re: Next Week’s Issuance

Tuesday’s deals were tighter, and Wednesday’s deals were tighter BUT some widened while yesterday’s deals were 48% wider? What’s it mean? It means “get it while it’s hot,” and the hotter it gets, the more they compress spreads and the more they compress spreads the more likely they are to leak out. So, with the U.S. six-pack banks set to release earnings beginning on January 13th thru the 18th, we have a bit before that money center bank deluge happens. In the interim, next week will seem like a drop off in issuance but why wouldn’t it? We priced the 4th busiest day in history for both IG Corporate AND for IG Corporates and SSA yesterday ($53.233b and $65.233b respectively). By those standards any other week will pale in comparison. However, I believe things hold in and we get $40bn-plus of all-in Corp + SSA issuance next week. Call IG Corporates $35b.

 

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

 

  • Taking a look at the secondary trading performance of this week’s IG and SSA new issues, of the 67 deals that printed, 38 tightened versus NIP for a 56.50% improvement rate while 16 widened (24.00%) and 13 were flat (19.50%).
  • For the week ended January 4th, Lipper U.S. Fund Flows reported an inflow of $2.186b into Corporate Investment Grade Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $2.186b) and a net inflow of $734.107 into High Yield Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $734.107b).
  • The average spread compression from IPTs thru the launch/final pricing of today’s XX IG Corporate-only new issues was XX.XX bps.
  • BAML’s IG Master Index widened 1 bp to +129 vs. +128.  +106 represents the post-Crisis low dating back to July 2007.
  • Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS widened 1 bp to +122 vs. +121.  The “LUACOAS” wide since 2012 is +215. The tight is +122.
  • Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread widened 1 bp to +167 vs. +166.  The +140 reached on July 30th 2014 represents the post-Crisis low.
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $22b on Thursday (7th highest day since 2006) versus $22.4b on Wednesday (6th highest volume day) and $4.1b the previous Thursday.
  • The 10-DMA stands at $9.6b.

 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for January 

 

IG Corporate New Issuance January 2017
Forecasts
vs. Current
MTD – $53.233b
Low-End Avg. $107.87b 49.35%
Midpoint Avg. $108.41b 49.10%
High-End Avg. $108.96b 48.86%
The Low $80b 66.54%
The High $145b 36.71%

 

The Best and the Brightest” –  Syndicate Forecasts and Sound Bites for Next Week  

I am happy to announce that, once again, the “QC” received unanimous responses from the 23 syndicate desks surveyed in today’s Best & Brightest poll.  22 of those participants are among 2016’s top 24 ranked syndicate desks according to today’s Bloomberg’s U.S. IG U.S. Investment Grade Corporate Bond underwriting league table.  In fact, all of today’s 23 participants finished in the top 25 of last year’s final IG Corporate Bloomberg league table.  The 2016 League table can be found on your terminals at “LEAG” + [GO] after which you select #201 (US Investment Grade Corporates).  The participating desks represent 81.59% of all IG dollar-denominated new issue underwriting as of today’s table share percentage which simply means they’re the ones with visibility.  But it’s not only about their volume forecasts, it’s also about their comments!  This core syndicate group does it best; they know best; so they’re the ones you WANT and NEED to hear from.  It’s a great look at the week ahead.

*Please note that these are Investment Grade Corporates only. They do not include SSA issuance unless otherwise noted.

 

As always “thank you” to all the syndicate desks that participated in today’s survey.  I greatly appreciate your time to contribute and for making this edition of the “QC” among the most widely read! You are helping to promote Mischler’s value-added DCM proposition while adding readership to the “QC” that won Wall Street Letter’s Award as Best Broker Dealer Research in our financial services industry for the third consecutive year! That’s 2014, 2015 and 2016 !!   

To best frame our weekly poll i.e.  projected new issue activity, we posed the following to our  Best & Brightest”respondents:

This week’s $53.233b of IG Corporate only new issue volume ranks as the 4th largest of all-time.

  • This week’s $65.233b of all-in (IG Corporate and SSA) issuance also ranks as the 4th highest of all-time. 
  • This week’s IG Corporate only volume total ($53.233b) represents just over 49% of the syndicate midpoint average forecast for all of January ($108.41) after only 3 sessions!  

Here are this week’s five IG Corporate-only key primary market driver averages after the close of yesterday’s: 

o   NICS:  2.25 bps

o   Oversubscription Rates: 2.45x

o   Tenors:  6.52 years

o   Tranche Sizes: $859mm

o   Spread Compression from IPTs to the Launch: <15.27> bps


Here’s the performance data comparing this week’s averages versus those of the week ending December 15th:

 

  • NICs widened 1.75 bps to 2.25 bps vs. <0.50> bps..
  • Over subscription or bid-to-cover rates increased marginally by 0.04x to 2.45x vs. 2.41x. 
  • Average tenors shortened dramatically by 4.15 years to 6.52 years vs. 10.67 years.
  • Tranche sizes increased noticeably by $151mm to $859mm vs. $708mm.
  • Spread compression from IPTs to the launch/final pricing of this week’s 62 IG Corporate new issues widened by <1.90> bps to <15.27> vs. <17.17>.
  • Standard and Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spreads tightened 2 bps to +167 vs. +169.
  • Week-on-week, BAML’s IG Master Index tightened 1 bp to +129 versus +130 on Thursday, December 15th
  • Spreads across the four IG asset classes tightened by 0.75 bps to 20.00 vs. 22.00 bps on Thursday, December 15th and as measured against their post-Crisis lows. 
  • Looking at the 19 major industry sectors, spreads tightened 1.57 bps to 26.32 vs. 27.89 on Thursday, December 15th, also against their post-Crisis lows.

 

……and now for the first time of 2017, I’d like to know your thoughts and your numbers for next week’s IG Corporate new issue volume. You all know that I greatly appreciate your participation week in and week out.
Thanks very much, Ron!

 

The “Best and the Brightest” in Their Own Words

 

……..……and here are their formidable responses: (more…)

FOMC Minutes-Distilling the Minutiae; Mischler Debt Market Comments
January 2017      Debt Market Commentary   

Quigley’s Corner 01.04.17 – FOMC Minutes; Distilling the Minutiae and Market Reaction(s)

Today’s Issuers: American Airlines (NYSE:AMR); Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C); Credit Suisse Group; Ford Motor Credit Corp (parent NYSE:F); Toyota Motor Credit Corp TMCC (parent NYSE:TM) and…

Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap – U.S. and Europe Posting Prolific IG Volume Totals – 7th Busiest IG USD Primary Day in History

Global Market Recap

Credit Suisse AG $4.5b two-part 6NC5 and 11NC10 Senior Notes Deal Dashboard

FOMC Minutes Brought to You by Our Fighting Irishman Mr. Tony Farren

FOMC Voting Line-Up for 2017 from 2016

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

New Issues Priced

Indexes and New Issue Volume

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending December 28th     

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

IG Credits by Industry

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

Tomorrow’s Calendar

 

To tell you how busy the IG primary markets have been today, let’s first go to Europe of all places, where it would seem things might appear a bit better than anticipated resulting in issuers’ fear of higher rates sooner rather than later.  You all know what I feel about Europe’s geopolitical situation (I’m in the Bear camp), but the market likes to be way ahead of the curve.  The result, according to my longtime friend and former BNP Paribas colleague, Mr. Paul Cohen, who heads Bloomberg Editorial in London, “this week’s European IG issuance stands at €29.93b exceeding by 89%, London syndicate expectations for the entire week after only just two days and the highest new issue volume since March 16th and only the third time in three years that more than €22b dollar priced during a single session.” Additionally he said, “Europe priced its first sovereign issue today for Ireland – a €4b long 20-year.”  I call that “getting off the fence” to take full advantage of the current rate environment. We know how market players react, from issuers to bankers and traders and sales – they want to be ahead of the pack. Europe clearly has a long and bumpy road ahead of itself, but for today that’s a staggering issuance statistic across the pond.

Conversely, we here in the U.S. of A. have much more substantial evidence of an improving economy with promise for our future.  However, don’t be fooled by today’s FOMC Minutes (more on that later). Rates aren’t going up merely on Trump’s promises, rather once in office, the Beltway needs to show it can get things done.  With Republicans owning the White House, Senate and Congress the expectation is that great change may come fast and furious but don’t get too far ahead of yourselves.  Rate hikes will be a slow crawl folks. Remember that!  

Regardless, as a result, today was the 7th busiest day for all-in IG dollar new issuance.  That’s right, we priced a total of 7 IG Corporate issuers across 22 tranches totaling $22.785b.  Meanwhile 2 SSA issuers joined the fray, issuing 3 tranches between them totaling $5.75b bringing the staggering record all-in IG day total to 9 issuers, 25 tranches and $28.535b.  The all-in (IG Corporates plus SSA) WTD total is now $48.435b. In terms of IG Corporate-only WTD volume, we have priced over 39% of the syndicate midpoint average forecast for all of January or $108.41b.

My advice? Be smart, look good and continue issuing.

Mischler was grateful to once again secure a part in this great start to the New Year, having served as an active Co-Manager on today’s $4.5b two-part from Credit Suisse Group AG in the form a 6NC5 and 11NC10 Senior Notes new issue. Let’s first look at the Global re-cap and then I’ll show you the CS Deal Dashboard.

I also encourage you to ask Paul Cohen, who is located in London, to add you to his disty list.  If you are already on Bloomberg, it’s free and you’ll be glad you did.  So, send him a message or chat. He’s an all-around great guy.  He’ll be happy to keep you in touch with IG primary market stats and commentary from across the pond and “Yes” he is part of the Ed, Bob and Lisa show who do what he does but they do it here in New York.  Note also that Paul is a very seasoned originator/banker and he can talk-the-talk and hold his own with any of my “QC” readership. See that?  Another value-added suggestion from the guy-in-the-corner.

 

Global Market Recap

 

  • The FOMC Minutes were not as hawkish as the December Meeting.
  • U.S. Treasuries – Mixed & little changed.
  • Overseas Bonds – JGB’s mixed/steeper. EU more red than green. Supply tomorrow.
  • 3mth Libor – Set over 1% (1.00511%) for the first time since May 2009.
  • Stocks – NASDAQ leading U.S. stocks higher (3:30pm).
  • Overseas Stocks – Europe closed mixed. Big rally for Nikkei. China higher.
  • Economic – Vehicle sales looked to be very strong.
  • Overseas Economic – Higher EU CPI. Better economic data in Europe, China & Japan.
  • Currencies – The USD weaker was vs. all of the Big 5. Strong session for ADXY Index.
  • Commodities – Good day for the CRB, crude oil, copper & wheat.
  • CDX IG: -2.27 to 63.40
  • CDX HY: -7.21 to 338.48
  • CDX EM: -6.45 to 233.39

*CDX levels are as of 3:30PM ET today.

-Tony Farren

 

 

Credit Suisse AG $4.5b two-part 6NC5 and 11NC10 Senior Notes Deal Dashboard

 

CS Issue IPTs GUIDANCE LAUNCH PRICED Spread
Compression
NICs
(bps)
Trading at
the Break
+/-
(bps)
6NC5 +185a +165 the # +165 +165 <20> bps 11 bps 163/161 <2>
11NC10 +205a +185 the # +185 +185 <20> bps 2 bps 183/180 <2>

 

The 11NC10 relative value study pointed to the outstanding CS 4.55% due 4/17/26 which was quoted T+166bp (G+170).  The 10s/11s curve is worth about 4 bps getting you to T+174 implying an 11 bp NIC on this tranche.

 

The 6nc5 tranche comped best to the Credit Suisse  CS 3.45% due 4/16/2021 that was T+130bp (G146) pre-announcement.  Accounting for 5 bps for the 4s/5s curve and tagging on another 12 bps for the 5s/6s curve lands fair value at T+163 pointing to a 2 bp NIC versus today’s 11NC10 +165 final spread level.

 

………and here’s a look at final book sizes and oversubscription rates:

 

CS  Issue Tranche Size Final Book
Size
Bid-to-Cover
Rate
6NC5 $1.75b $4.7b 2.69x
11NC10 $2.25b $6.4b 2.84x

 

Final Pricing – Credit Suisse Group AG
CS $1.75b 3.574%% 6NC5 1/09/2023 callable 1/09/2022 @ $100.00 to yield 3.574% or T+165  MW +25

CS $2.25b 4.282% 1/09/2028 callable 1/09/2027 @ $100.00 to yield 4.282% or T+185  MW +30

 

FOMC Minutes Brought to You by Our Fighting Irishman Mr. Tony Farren

 

  • About half of FED officials included fiscal policy in their forecasts.
  • Many officials stressed uncertainty on fiscal policy effects.
  • Numerous officials judged the FED might need to raise rates faster.
  • Fed officials endorse gradual rate hikes as upside risk debated.
  • Weighed upside risks to growth from fiscal policy.
  • Several saw a stronger U.S. dollar holding down inflation.
  • Officials were split on the inflation outlook.
  • Almost all officials expected a labor market overshoot.
  • FED: downside risks included a stronger U.S. dollar and weakness abroad.
  • Need improved confidence could boost investment.
  • Housing market data signaled firmer residential investments.
  • Sighted continued moderate consumers spending gains.
  • Noted that businesses are more optimistic on their outlooks.
  • Fed officials saw rising communication challenge on the rate path.

 

Tony’s Take: Deep Dive Into Rates – Expectations vs. Reality

 

  • The FOMC’s Minutes were not as hawkish as the market perceived the FOMC to be on Fed day (December 14th).
  • The roughly half of FOMC Members that took fiscal policy into account prior to its being introduced must have expressed the more optimistic view in their Dots and not their forecasts for growth, employment and inflation. The economic forecasts were very little changed in December from September.
  • One critical factor is the market has not focused enough on is that the 2017 FOMC will not be nearly as hawkish as the 2016 FOMC was. The biggest hawk on the 2017 FOMC is Vice-Chair Fischer. I sent out a piece on the 2017 vs. 2016 FOMC yesterday at 11:45 am……oh you missed that? Well my good firned the guy-in-the-corner has been kind enough to re-print it for you below.

 

Take a look …………………..

 

FOMC Voting Line-Up for 2017 from 2016

 

The FOMC takes a dovish turn in 2017 from 2016. A better description for the 2017 might be a less hawkish FOMC than 2016. In 2017 the FOMC will add 2 doves and 2 neutral voters and they will be replacing 1 dove, 2 hawks & 1 neutral. The neutral voter (Bullard) had entered 2016 known as a hawk. 3 of the 4 voters in 2016 that are being replaced in 2017 were dissenters at FOMC Meetings in 2016 and all 3 favored rates hikes when the FOMC remained on hold. In an interesting twist, 3 of the new voters in 2017 are the most recently appointed Regional Fed President’s –  Patrick Harker (Philadelphia/July 1, 2015); Robert Kaplan (Dallas/September 8, 2015) and Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis/January 1, 2016). In 2017 out of the current 10 voting members (currently 2 open Fed Governor seats) there will be 6 doves, 1 hawk & 3 neutral voters. Last year (2016) there was 5 doves, 3 hawks & 2 neutral voters.

Here are the details:

 

New Voters 2017 Dove / Hawk
Charles Evans (Chicago) Very Dovish
Patrick Harker (Philadelphia) Neutral (possible hawkish lean)
Robert Kaplan (Dallas) Neutral
Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis) Dove

 

New Voters 2017 Dove / Hawk
James Bullard (St. Louis) Neutral (formally hawkish)
Esther George (Kansas City) Very Hawkish (lived up to reputation)
Loretta Mester (Cleveland) Hawk (lived up to reputation)
Eric Rosengren (Boston) Dovish (formally known as very dovish)

 

The 2017 Line-Up
Doves (6): Yellen, Brainard, Tarullo, Dudley, Evans & Kashkari
Hawks (1): Fischer
Neutral (3): Powell, Harker & Kaplan

 

Who the Heck  is Tony Farren?  Well, for Starters…

Interesting stuff isn’t it?  Think twice about the rush to hike folks!  And do yourselves another favor please, when you sign on to Bloomberg tomorrow morning look up Tony Farren and ask him to put you on his disty list. Here’s why I say that – I’ve worked right next to “Rocket” Spinella, Chris Garavante and Tommy Lynette on Danny Napoli’s best-in-class Treasury desk at Mother Merrill back in the day. In fact, that team was so good that Tom Hanks sat next to those guys for a couple days to prep for his role as the Master of the Universe when he starred in Brian De Palma’s “Bonfire of the Vanities.”  I happened to be about 10 feet away sitting on corner desk (go figure) of the IG Corporate Institutional trading desk across from another Wall Street legend Mr. Seth Waugh.  Joe Moglia (net worth $1.2b according to monte Burke’s book) sat behind me in institutional sales.  To this day he’s the best motivator on the planet.  Talk about Wall Street celebs, there’s a lot of them right there.  I was lucky and fortunate enough to be around them.  That’s not to mention syndicate etc.  I know I know……relax, I never cease to amaze people.  Anyway, Hanks wanted to know how the phone screens worked, the mannerisms and language used on a real-time Treasury desk for his role as Sherman McCoy so he picked the best and busiest on the street and so it goes.

Here’s my point – out of all that talent that surrounded me especially on the govie desk, Tony Farren is a sharp and experienced market player ( and an ND grad) and could be right in the mix with those people during “those” times.  He’s here at Mischler and is a foundational part of our UST team not to mention a wealth of knowledge.  Reach out to him and ask him to add you to his disty list. Take what you want and leave the rest. Everything he sends out is great stuff.  You’ll be glad you did.  Heck, the guy makes me look good to.  There’s a reason why I added in his Global Market Re-Cap every night and this evening’s Farren intel is a good example of the great stuff you might be missing out on.  Do it.  That’s right I’m talking to YOU. Just do it. Thanks! RQ. 

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

  • American Airlines Inc. upsized today’s two-part EETC pass through certificates new issue to $536.811m from $404.943m on the Class “AA” tranche and $248.627 from $187.553m on the Class “A” tranche.
  • The average spread compression from IPTs thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 22 IG Corporate-only new issues was 14.45 bps.
  • BAML’s IG Master Index tightened 2 bps to to +128 vs. +130.  +106 represents the post-Crisis low dating back to July 2007.
  • Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS tightened 1 bp to +122 vs. 1.23.  The “LUACOAS” wide since 2012 is +215. The tight is +122.
  • Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread tightened 1 bp to +168 vs. +169.  The +140 reached on July 30th 2014 represents the post-Crisis low.
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $12.8b on Tuesday versus $2.5b on Friday and $5.7b the previous Tuesday.
  • The 10-DMA stands at $7.9b.

 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and January 

 

IG Corporate New Issuance January 2017
Forecasts
vs. Current
MTD – $42.685b
Low-End Avg. $107.87b 39.57%
Midpoint Avg. $108.41b 39.37%
High-End Avg. $108.96b 39.17%
The Low $80b 53.36%
The High $145b 29.44%

 

Below please find my synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary from today’s debt capital markets, including the investment grade corporate bond data drill down as seen from my seat here in Syndicate, Sales and DCM.

Have a great evening!

Ron Quigley, Managing Director and Head of Fixed Income Syndicate

 

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

 

Here’s a review of this week’s five key primary market driver averages for IG Corporates only through Tuesday’s session followed by the averages over the prior six weeks:

KEY IG CORPORATE
NEW ISSUE DRIVERS
MON.
1/02
TUES.
1/03
AVERAGES
WEEK 12/26
AVERAGES
WEEK 12/19
AVERAGES
WEEK 12/12
AVERAGES
WEEK 12/05
AVERAGES
WEEK 11/28
AVERAGES
WEEK 11/21
New Issue Concessions N/A 1.76 bps N/A N/A <0.50> bps 4.26 bps 3.53 bps 4.5 bps
Oversubscription Rates N/A 2.62x N/A N/A 2.41x 3.68x 3.38x 2.99x
Tenors N/A 7.53 yrs N/A N/A 10.67 yrs 9.21 yrs 10.84 yrs 12.14 yrs
Tranche Sizes N/A $796mm N/A N/A $708mm $760mm $711mm $929mm
Avg. Spd. Compression
IPTs to Launch
N/A <16.96> bps N/A N/A <17.17> bps <22.24> bps <17.60> bps <16.07> bps

 

New Issues Priced

Today’s recap of visitors to our IG dollar Corporate and SSA DCM:

For ratings I use the better two of Moody’s, S&P or Fitch.

 

IG

Issuer Ratings Coupon Maturity Size IPTs GUIDANCE LAUNCH PRICED LEADS
American Airlines Inc. Aa3/AA 3.65% 2/15/2029 536.811 3.875%a 3.70%a (+/-5) 3.65% +120 CITI/CS/DB(a)MS/GS+(p)
American Airlines Inc. A2/A 4.00% 2/15/2029 248.627 4.125% 4.00%a (+/-5) 4.00% +155 CITI/CS/DB(a)MS/GS+(p)
Citigroup Inc. Baa1/A FRN 1/10/2020 1,000 3mL+equiv 3mL+equiv 3mL+79 3mL+79 CITI-sole
Citigroup, Inc. Baa1/A 2.45% 1/10/2020 1,500 +110a +100a (+/-2) +98 +98 CITI-sole
Citigroup, Inc. Baa1/A 3.887% 1/10/2028 2,750 +162.5a +145a the # +145 +145 CITI-sole
Credit Suisse Group AG BBB+/A- 3.574% 1/09/2023 1,750 +185a +165 the # +165 +165 CS-sole
Credit Suisse Group AG BBB+/A- 4.282% 1/09/2028 2,250 +205a +185 the # +185 +185 CS-sole
Ford Motor Credit Corp. Baa2/BBB FRN 1/09/2020 1,000 3mL+equiv 3mL+equiv 3mL+100 3mL+100 BARC/CACIB/CS/JPM/MIZ
RBC/SMBC
Ford Motor Credit Corp. Baa2/BBB 2.681% 1/09/2020 1,250 +140a +125a (+/-5) +120 +120 BARC/CACIB/CS/JPM/MIZ
RBC/SMBC
Ford Motor Credit Corp. Baa2/BBB 3.81% 1/09/2024 750 +175a +160a (+/-3) +157 +157 BARC/CACIB/CS/JPM/MIZ
RBC/SMBC
Lloyds Banking Group Baa1/A+ 3.00% 1/11/2022 1,500 +130a +115 the # +115 +115 GS/HSBC/LLOYD/MS/WFS
Lloyds Banking Group Baa1/A+ 3.75% 1/11/2027 1,250 +160a +145a (+/-5) +140 +140 GS/HSBC/LLOYD/MS/WFS
National Australia Bank Ltd. Aa2/AA- FRN 1/10/2020 250 3mL+equiv 3mL+equiv 3mL+59 3mL+59 CITI/MS/NAB/RBC
National Australia Bank Ltd. Aa2/AA- FRN 1/10/2022 500 3mL+equiv 3mL+equiv 3mL+89 3mL+89 CITI/MS/NAB/RBC
National Australia Bank Ltd. Aa2/AA- 3.50% 1/10/2027 750 +120a +110a (+/-2) +108 +108 CITI/MS/NAB/RBC
National Australia Bank/NY Aa2/AA- 2.25% 1/10/2020 1,000 +90a +80a m(+/-2) +78 +78 CITI/MS/NAB/RBC
National Australia Bank/NY Aa2/AA- 2.80% 1/10/2022 1,000 +100a +90a (+/-2) +90 +90 CITI/MS/NAB/RBC
Toyota Motor Credit Corp. Aa3/AA- FRN 1/09/2019 400 3mL+equiv 3mL+equiv 3mL+26 3mL+26 BNPP/CITI(B&D)JPM/MIZ/TD
Toyota Motor Credit Corp. Aa3/AA- 1.70% 1/09/2019 850 +60a +52a (+/-2) +50 +50 BNPP/CITI(B&D)JPM/MIZ/TD
Toyota Motor Credit Corp. Aa3/AA- FRN 1/11/2022 300 3mL+equiv 3mL+equiv 3mL+69 3mL+69 BNPP/CITI(B&D)JPM/MIZ/TD
Toyota Motor Credit Corp. Aa3/AA- 2.60% 1/11/2022 1,200 +80a +72a (+/-2) +70 +70 BNPP/CITI(B&D)JPM/MIZ/TD
Toyota Motor Credit Corp. Aa3/AA- 3.20% 1/22/2027 750 +low 90s/+92.5 +82a (+/-2) +80 +80 BNPP/CITI/JPM(B&D)MIZ/TD

           

SSA

Issuer Ratings Coupon Maturity Size IPTs GUIDANCE LAUNCH PRICED LEADS
Asia Development Bank Aaa/AAA 1.75% 1/10/2020 3,000 MS +8a MS +8a MS +8 +28.05 CITI/GS/JPM/NOM
Asia Development Bank Aaa/AAA 2.,625% 1/12/2027 1,000 MS +38a MS +38 MS +38 +23.75 CITI/GS/JPM/NOM
Bank of Montreal Aaa/AAA 2.50% 1/11/2022 1,750 MS +low/mid 60s
63.75a
MS+60 MS +60 +61.2 BMO/BARC/HSBC/TD

 

Indexes and New Issue Volume

 

Index Open Current Change
IG27 65.669 63.476 <2.193>
HV27 141.03 137.58 <3.45>
VIX 12.85 11.85 <1.00>
S&P 2,258 2,271 13
DOW 19,882 19,942 60
 

USD

 

IG Corporates

 

USD

 

Total IG (+SSA)

DAY: $22.785 bn DAY: $28.535 bn
WTD: $42.685 bn WTD: $48.435 bn
MTD: $42.685 bn MTD: $48.435 bn
YTD: $42.685 bn YTD: $48.435 bn

 

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending December 28th     

     

  • For the week ended December 29th, Lipper U.S. Fund Flows reported an inflow of $1.620b into Corporate Investment Grade Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $46.95b) and a net inflow of $592.117m into High Yield Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $11.275b).
  • Over the same period, Lipper reported a net inflow of $923.798m into Loan Participation Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $6.261b).
  • Emerging Market debt funds reported a net outflow of $38.770m (2016 YTD inflow of $3.721b).

 

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

The 10-day IG spread performance vs. the T10 across the ratings spectrum and how IG compared versus high yield:

Spreads across the four IG asset classes are an average 20.00 bps wider versus their post-Crisis lows!

 

ASSET CLASS 1/03 1/02 12/30 12/29 12/28 12/27 12/23 12/22 12/21 12/20 1-Day Change 10-Day Trend PC
low
IG Avg. 128 130 129 128 128 128 129 129 129 129 0 <1> 106
“AAA” 70 71 71 70 70 71 71 72 72 72 0 <2> 50
“AA” 79 80 80 79 79 80 80 80 80 80 0 <1> 63
“A” 103 104 103 103 103 103 103 103 104 104 0 <1> 81
“BBB” 164 166 164 163 164 164 164 164 165 165 0 <1> 142
IG vs. HY 285 292 292 290 287 282 287 288 290 290 0 <5> 228

 

IG Credit Spreads by Industry (more…)

Record Year for Primary Debt Capital Markets; Mischler Comments
December 2016      Debt Market Commentary   

Quigley’s Corner 12.15.16–2016 Sets Record Year for Primary Debt Capital Markets, What’s In Store for 2017

 

End-of-Year- Thoughts –A Look to 2017

Investment Grade Corporate Debt New Issue Re-Cap 

Global Market Recap

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

The Best and the Brightest” –  Syndicate Forecasts and Sound Bites 

A Look at How the Voting Brackets Broke-Out for Next Week and January 2017

“Knowing the Past for the Future” – A Look at a Decade’s Worth of December IG Corporate and SSA Issuance

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

New Issues Priced

This Week’s IG New Issues and Where They’re Trading

Indexes and New Issue Volume

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending December 14th     

IG Credit Spreads by Rating & Industry

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

Tomorrow’s Calendar

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline

 

 End of year Note:  I will be out traveling on business tomorrow Friday, December 16th.  Today’s “QC” issue will represent the last “Quigley’s Corner” of 2016. I will finally be able to enjoy uninterrupted time with my wife, daughter and our dog at our home in Vermont.  Fireplaces, fresh air, long walks, and time with other extended family. I am so looking forward to unplugging, unwinding and RELAXING! A bit of meaningful après–ski will certainly be on the agenda as well. HOWEVER, “if” there is anything brewing or we’re in a deal, I am right back in action again.  You all know that especially accounts from my previous summer island vacations where I’ve pulled all-nighters to place orders etcetera.

I would like to take this time to thank all of my “QC” readership. To all the issuers who take the time to let me know what fans you are of my editorials, D&I pieces, deal drill downs and data downloads, those comments mean a lot, they are appreciated and serve as great motivation.  To all my accounts that I cover (I’m at about 107 presently), I do appreciate your comments and feedback and am elated it helps you in your daily routines.  You are all the best. I’d especially like to thank the crew fondly referred to here in the “QC” as the “The Best and the Brightest” – namely all the syndicate desks out there who I deal with on deal day. Thanks for your time in responding to my weekly survey and for the very thoughtful sound bites that accompany and compliment your numbers. Thanks for working with me on allocations and for the open exchanges we enjoy.  Thanks also to the DCM teams who I often liaise with across FIGs, Industrials and of course our domestic Utility sector.  You all know who you are.

Always know that the guy-in-the-corner is ALWAYS in YOUR corner.  It’s been another great year but after 24 years in this business I know all too well that January simply means we all reset “back to zero.” I try every day to do the best and bring you the best that I can here in the “QC.”  I hope it continues to grow its readership.  It’s free and it takes one heck of a lot of time out of my day that includes placing new issues as Head of Primary Sales, running all of Mischler’s IG Corporate new issues and also banking the Utility sector and includes co-coverage on most all of the staple big FIGs among others.  If it helps to shed light on what else I do I suppose I should add in strategic relationships, dealing with the finest press contacts in our financial services industry each and every day, helping to brand this firm and getting us and our names out in the media in the right way and in a meaningful way.  Then there’s always the equity secondary trade that comes along or municipal new issue orders and treasury trades as well a fair amount of structured products placements, bulky agencies and preferreds.  It’s a lot.  But I still enjoy it.  And as long as I do the “QC” will be stopping in for its daily visit with you.

As we are a diversity and inclusion firm so too is my readership.  So I’d like to send out a heartfelt “Happy Holiday” to each one of you and your families.  For those of you who celebrate Christmas as I do, then I wish you and yours a very Merry Christmas and a safe, healthy, happy and prosperous 2017. 

mischler-veteran-owned-holiday-2016-greeting
Ron, a.k.a. the guy-in-the-corner

 

Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap 

 

Well, it looks as though officially ended as of today.  Of the 23 major underwriting houses 14 forecasting “ZERO” issuance in each of the next two weeks.  That about sums it up.  Of those who did chime in with a “0-5” or $300mm drive by etc., all admitted “we don’t have anything.” It’s over, done or as one large shop said, “ZILCH!”  My advice?  Rest up. Spend time with your families.  Enjoy the holidays however you celebrate it.  Live, love and laugh because it starts all over again in 19 days on Tuesday, January 3rd.  In between that time fall 3 weekends (6 days) as well as Christmas and New Year’s Day.  My wish is that USC topples PSU in the Granddaddy of them all on Monday January 2 at 5pm ET on ESPN.  That right there will be the most entertaining of all the Bowl games.  Fight On Trojans!

 

Global Market Recap

 

  • S. Treasuries – Phase 2 of the UST sell off is under way. Bunds & Gilts traded poorly.
  • 3mth Libor – Set at the highest since May 2009 (0.99317).
  • Stocks – U.S. & Europe closed higher. Nikkei little changed. China mixed & HS hit hard.
  • Economic – The U.S. data was very good today.
  • Overseas Economic – Solid PMI data in Europe and retail sales in the U.K.
  • Currencies – Big rally for the USD. DXY Index at high since 2002
  • Commodities – Gold & silver (-7.3%) were hit hard. Crude oil had a small loss
  • CDX IG: -0.67 to 68.76
  • CDX HY: -1.56 to 362.52
  • CDX EM: +0.40 to 250.39
  • Swaps: Very bad day (below)

*CDX levels are as of 3:30PM ET today.

-Tony Farren

 

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

 

  • For the week ended December 14th, Lipper U.S. Fund Flows reported an outflow of $80.9m from Corporate Investment Grade Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $43.710b) and a net inflow of $3.75b into High Yield Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $10.723b).
  • Taking a look at the secondary trading performance of this week’s IG and SSA new issues, of the 6 deals that printed, 3 tightened versus NIP for a 00% improvement rate and 3 were flat (50.00%).
  • The average spread compression from IPTs thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 2 IG Corporate-only new issues was <20.00> bps.
  • BAML’s IG Master Index tightened 1 bp to +130 vs. +131.  +106 represents the post-Crisis low dating back to July 2007.
  • Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS tightened 1 bp to 1.24 vs. 1.25.  The “LUACOAS” wide since 2012 is +215. The tight is +135.
  • Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread tightened 2 bps to +169 vs. +171.  The +140 reached on July 30th 2014 represents the post-Crisis low.
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $16.7b on Wednesday versus $19.3b on Tuesday and $21.4b the previous Wednesday.

 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and December  

 

IG Corporate New Issuance This Week
12/12-12/16
vs. Current
WTD – $4.25b
December 2016
Forecasts
vs. Current
MTD – $40.455b
Low-End Avg. $4.74b 89.66% $40.87b 98.98%
Midpoint Avg. $6.00b 70.83% $41.52b 97.43%
High-End Avg. $7.26b 58.54% $42.17b 95.93%
The Low $0.1b/”0” 4,250.00% $30b 134.85%
The High $10b 42.50% $60b 67.42%

 

The Best and the Brightest” –  Syndicate Forecasts and Sound Bites for Next Week and December

 

I am happy to announce that, once again, the “QC” received unanimous responses from the 23 syndicate desks surveyed in today’s Best & Brightest poll.  22 of those participants are among 2016’s top 24 ranked syndicate desks according to today’s Bloomberg’s U.S. IG U.S. Investment Grade Corporate Bond underwriting league table.  In fact, all of today’s 23 participants finished in the top 25 of last year’s final IG Corporate Bloomberg league table.  The 2016 League table can be found on your terminals at “LEAG” + [GO] after which you select #201 (US Investment Grade Corporates).  The participating desks represent 81.59% of all IG dollar-denominated new issue underwriting as of today’s table share percentage which simply means they’re the ones with visibility.  But it’s not only about their volume forecasts, it’s also about their comments!  This core syndicate group does it best; they know best; so they’re the ones you WANT and NEED to hear from.  It’s a great look at the week ahead.

 

*Please note that these are Investment Grade Corporates only. They do not include SSA issuance unless otherwise noted.

 

As always “thank you” to all the syndicate desks that participated in today’s survey.  I greatly appreciate your time to contribute and for making this edition of the “QC” among the most widely read! You are helping to promote Mischler’s value-added DCM proposition while adding readership to the “QC” that won Wall Street Letter’s Award as Best Broker Dealer Research in our financial services industry for the third consecutive year! That’s 2014, 2015 and 2016 !!  More importantly, however, you are helping the nation’s oldest Service Disabled Veteran broker-dealer grow in a more meaningful and sustainable way.  So, thank you all! -RQ

 

The question posed to the “Best and the Brightest” early this morning was prefaced by the following:

“Happy Friday on Thursday! As I will be out traveling on business tomorrow, I am conducting my usual Friday survey today!  We’re nearly done for the year.  Congrats on a record setting 2016!  

 

  • Entering today’s session and given the pause thanks to this week’s two-day FOMC meeting, we only featured 3 issuers and 6 tranches.
  • The IG Corporate weekly total so far amounts to only 70.83% of this week’s syndicate midpoint average forecast or $4.25b vs. $6.00b. 
  • As for the month of December we’re currently at over 97.43% of the syndicate projection or $40.455b vs. $41.52b. 
  • We did, however set a new IG Corporate annual volume record whether we see issuance thru year end or not. We are currently at $1,285.217 trillion vs. last year’s previous record of $1,268.44 trillion, a 1.32% improvement.
  • As for all-in IG new issuance (Corporates plus SSA) we eclipsed last year’s record issuing $1,625.151 trillion vs. last year’s $1,512.83 trillion or 7.42% more.

 

Could some opportunistic issuers tap from today thru year end? Of course! Could some smaller issuers get their deals done in the next couple of business days in advance of the holidays to avoid crowding in what’s gearing up to be a monumental January?  Certainly!  But for all intents and purposes after today we’re about thru for the year folks.  


Here are this week’s five IG Corporate-only key primary market driver averages after the close of today’s session:

  • NICS:  <0.50> bps
  • Oversubscription Rates: 2.41x
  • Tenors:  10.67 years
  • Tranche Sizes: $708mm
  • Spread Compression from IPTs to the Launch: <17.17> bps

Versus last Friday’s key primary market driver averages we had some dramatic swings thanks to the fact that we only had 6 tranches price this week that priced on either Monday or today, Friday.

Here’s the performance data:

  • NICs tightened 4.76 bps to <0.50> bps vs. 4.26 bps..
  • Over subscription or bid-to-cover rates decreased 1.27x to 2.41x vs. 3.68x last week. 
  • Average tenors extended out by 1.46 years to 10.67 years vs. 9.21 years.
  • Tranche sizes decreased by $52mm to $708mm vs. $760mm last week.
  • Spread compression from IPTs to the launch/final pricing of this week’s IG Corporate new issues widened 5.07 bps to <17.17> bps vs. <22.24> bps last week.
  • Standard and Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spreads tightened 5 bps to +169 vs. +174.
  • Week-on-week, BAML’s IG Master Index tightened 3 bps to +130 vs.+133 last Friday. 
  • Spreads across the four IG asset classes tightened by 2.50 bps to 22.00 bps vs. 24.50 bps as measured against their post-Crisis lows. 
  • Looking at the 19 major industry sectors, spreads tightened 2.74 bps to 27.89 vs. 30.63 bps also against their post-Crisis lows.

 

……and now for the final time of 2016, I’d like to know your thoughts and numbers for the last two weeks and for January’s IG Corporate new issue volume.
Wishing you and yours a joyous holiday season.  For those of you who celebrate Christmas, like I do, I’d like to wish you and your families a very Merry Christmas and a safe, healthy, happy and prosperous New Year. -Ron”

 

The “Best and the Brightest” in Their Own Words

……..……and here are their formidable responses:

*Replies from canvassed respondents available exclusively to QC Distribution List recipients.

 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for Next Week and January 2017

 

IG Corporate New Issuance Next Week
12/19-12/30
January 2016
Low-End Avg. $45mm $107.87b
Midpoint Avg. $502mm $108.41b
High-End Avg. $959mm $108.96b
The Low $0.00 $80b
The High $5b $145b

A Look at How the Voting Brackets Broke-Out for Next Week and January 2017

 

Next Week
12/19-12/23
January 2017
14: “0.00” 1: 80-90b
1: 300mm 1: 90-100b
1: 500mm 2: 95b
1: 250mm-1.25b 8: 100b
2: 0-2b 3: 110b
2: 0-3b 3: 115b
2: 0-5b 2: 120b
  1: 126b
  1: 135-145
  1: 145b

 

“Knowing the Past for the Future” – A Look at a Decade’s Worth of December IG Corporate and SSA Issuance

 

  • Across the past ten years, all-in dollar-denominated IG Corporate plus SSA January new issuance averaged $135.00b.
  • Over the past five years, all-in IG January new issuance averaged $143.38b.
  • Over the past three years, all-in IG January issuance has averaged $145.46b.
  • The past three January’s saw IG Corporate only issuance average $108.90b.
  • January SSA issuance has averaged $36.56b across the last three years.

 

January
(Year)
All-in IG Issuance (bn) IG Corps
only (bn)
SSA
only (bn)
2016 169.124 126.984 42.14
2015 115.12 96.35 18.77
2014 152.14 103.36 48.78
2013 153.06 119.06 34.00
2012 127.48 81.14 46.34
2011 149.12 111.89 37.23
2010 110.69 74.80 35.89
2009 155.45 69.23 86.22
2008 144.35 75.74 68.61
2007 73.44 51.14 22.30

*Note: includes TARP/TALF & FDIC insured issuance

  Below please find my synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary from today’s debt capital markets, including the investment grade corporate bond data drill down as seen from my seat here in Syndicate, Sales and DCM.

Happy Holidays to All..

Ron Quigley, Managing Director and Head of Fixed Income Syndicate

 

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

 

Here is this week’s day-by-day re-cap of the five key primary market driver averages for IG Corporates thru today’s Thursday session followed by this week’s and the prior three week’s averages:

KEY IG CORPORATE
NEW ISSUE DRIVERS
MON.
12/12
TUES.
12/13
WED.
12/14
TH.
12/15
FR
12/16
THIS WEEK’S AVERAGES AVERAGES
WEEK 12/05
AVERAGES
WEEK 11/28
AVERAGES
WEEK 11/21
New Issue Concessions <1.83> bps N/A N/A 1.50 bps N/A <0.50> bps 4.26 bps 3.53 bps 4.5 bps
Oversubscription Rates 2.15x N/A N/A 2.94x N/A 2.41x 3.68x 3.38x 2.99x
Tenors 6 yrs N/A N/A 20 yrs N/A 10.67 yrs 9.21 yrs 10.84 yrs 12.14 yrs
Tranche Sizes $688mm N/A N/A $750mm N/A $708mm $760mm $711mm $929mm
Avg. Spd. Compression
IPTs to Launch
<15.75> bps N/A N/A <20.00> bps N/A <17.17> bps <22.24> bps <17.60> bps <16.07> bps

 

New Issues Priced

Today’s recap of visitors to our IG dollar Corporate and SSA DCM:

For ratings I use the better two of Moody’s, S&P or Fitch.

 

IG

Issuer Ratings Coupon Maturity Size IPTs GUIDANCE LAUNCH PRICED LEADS
UnitedHealth Group Inc. A3/A+ 3.45% 1/15/2027 750 +105a +90a (+/-5) +85 +85 BAML/CITI/JPM
UnitedHealth Group Inc. A3/A+ 4.20% 1/15/2047 750 +125a +110a (+/-5) +105 +105 BAML/CITI/JPM

           

This Week’s IG New Issues and Where They’re Trading

 

Taking a look at the secondary trading performance of this week’s IG and SSA new issues, of the 6 deals that printed, 3 tightened versus NIP for a 50.00% improvement rate and 3 were flat (50.00%).

Issues are listed from the most recent pricings at the top working back to Monday at the bottom.  Thanks! –RQ

 

Issuer Ratings Coupon Maturity Size IPTs GUIDANCE LAUNCH PRICED TRADING
UnitedHealth Group Inc. A3/A+ 3.45% 1/15/2027 750 +105a +90a (+/-5) +85 +85 85/83
UnitedHealth Group Inc. A3/A+ 4.20% 1/15/2047 750 +125a +110a (+/-5) +105 +105 104/
Enbridge Inc. Ba1/BBB- 6.00% 60NC10 750 6.25%a 6.00% the # 6.00% $100.00 $100.00/
MetLife Global Funding Aa3/AA- FRN 12/19/2018 500 3mL+equiv 3mL+equiv 3mL+43 3mL+43 3mL+43/41
MetLife Global Funding Aa3/AA- 1.75% 12/19/2018 500 +75a +65 the # +65 +65 64/62
MetLife Global Funding Aa3/AA- 3.45% 12/18/2026 1,000 +115a +100a (+/-3) +97 +97 94/92

 

Indexes and New Issue Volume

 

Index Open Current Change
LUACOAS 1.24 1.24 0
IG27 69.43 68.798 <0.632>
HV27 139.86 141.705 1.845
VIX 13.19 12.79 <0.40>
S&P 2,253 2,262 9
DOW 19,792 19,852 60
 

USD

 

IG Corporates

 

USD

 

Total IG (+SSA)

DAY: $1.50 bn DAY: $1.50 bn
WTD: $4.25 bn WTD: $4.25 bn
MTD: $40.455 bn MTD: $46.405 bn
YTD: $1,285.217 bn YTD: $1,625.151 bn

 

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending December 14th     

     

  • For the week ended December 14th, Lipper U.S. Fund Flows reported an outflow of $80.9m from Corporate Investment Grade Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $43.710b) and a net inflow of $3.75b into High Yield Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $10.723b).

 

  • Over the same period, Lipper reported a net inflow of $1.504b into Loan Participation Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $3.826b).

 

  • Emerging Market debt funds reported a net outflow of $776.74m (2016 YTD inflow of $3.961b).

 

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

The 10-day IG spread performance vs. the T10 across the ratings spectrum and how IG compared versus high yield:

Spreads across the four IG asset classes are an average 22.00 bps wider versus their post-Crisis lows!

 

ASSET CLASS 12/14 12/13 12/12 12/09 12/08 12/07 12/06 12/05 12/02 12/01 1-Day Change 10-Day Trend PC
low
IG Avg. 130 131 132 133 133 134 134 135 135 135 <1> <5> 106
“AAA” 73 74 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 <1> <2> 50
“AA” 81 81 82 81 82 82 82 82 83 83 0 <2> 63
“A” 104 105 106 106 106 106 107 107 107 107 <1> <3> 81
“BBB” 166 168 170 170 171 172 172 173 174 174 <2> <8> 142
IG vs. HY 282 289 293 295 305 308 316 323 329 327 <7> <45> 228

 

IG Credit Spreads by Industry

…….and a snapshot of the major investment grade sector credit spreads for the past ten sessions:

Spreads across the major industry sectors are an average 27.89 bps wider versus their post-Crisis lows!

                                    

INDUSTRY 12/14 12/13 12/12 12/09 12/08 12/07 12/06 12/05 12/02 12/01 1-Day Change 10-Day Trend PC
low
Automotive 121 121 121 121 121 121 121 121 122 122 0 <1> 67
Banking 122 122 124 123 124 124 125 125 126 125 0 <3> 98
Basic Industry 166 169 170 170 172 173 174 175 176 175 <3> <9> 143
Cap Goods 98 99 99 99 99 100 100 100 101 101 <1> <3> 84
Cons. Prod. 106 107 108 109 109 109 109 109 110 109 <1> <3> 85
Energy 163 166 168 170 172 173 174 175 177 177 <3> <14> 133
Financials 150 152 153 152 153 154 154 155 155 154 <2> <4> 97
Healthcare 116 117 117 117 117 117 117 118 118 118 <1> <2> 83
Industrials 132 133 134 135 135 136 136 137 137 137 <1> <5> 109
Insurance 142 144 145 145 146 146 146 146 147 146 <2> <4> 120
Leisure 134 134 135 135 135 134 134 135 135 135 0 <1> 115
Media 157 158 159 157 158 158 159 159 160 159 <1> <2> 113
Real Estate 142 143 144 143 143 143 143 144 144 144 <1> <2> 112
Retail 112 112 114 114 115 115 116 116 116 116 0 <4> 92
Services 125 125 127 127 127 127 128 128 128 128 0 <3> 120
Technology 106 107 108 108 109 109 110 110 110 110 <1> <4> 76
Telecom 160 161 163 163 163 164 165 165 166 165 <1> <5> 122
Transportation 129 130 131 131 132 133 135 135 135 135 <1> <6> 109
Utility 131 132 133 133 134 135 135 135 136 135 <1> <4> 104

 

Economic Data Releases

 

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA PERIOD SURVEYED ESTIMATES ACTUAL NUMBER PRIOR NUMBER PRIOR REVISED
Current Account Balance Q3 <$111.6b> <$113.0b> <$119.9b> <$118.3b>
Empire Manufacturing December 4.0 9.0 1.5 —-
CPI MoM November 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% —-
CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM November 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% —-
CPI YoY November 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% —-
CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY November 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% —-
CPI Core Index SA November 249.400 249.357 248.981 —-
CPI Index NSA November 241.413 241.353 241.729 —-
Real Average Weekly Earnings YoY November —- 0.5% 0.9% —-
Initial Jobless Claims Dec. 10 255k 254k 258k —-
Continuing Claims Dec. 3 2003k 2018k 2005k 2007k
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook December 9.1 21.5 7.6 —-
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Dec. 11 —- 45.5 45.1 —-
Markit US Manufacturing PMI December 54.5 54.2 54.1 —-
NAHB Housing Market Index December 63 70 63 —-
Total Net TIC Flows October —- $18.8b <$152.9b> <$154.4b>
Net Long-term TIC Flows October —- $9.4b <$26.2b> —-

 

Rates Trading Lab

 

One day this market will bounce, but today was not the day. The front end seems to be finding some grounding, and that is a start. However, the belly of the curve trades poorly. We are still in the midst of the market equivalent of trying to turn a supertanker around in a bath tub. It’s not pretty.

-Jim Levenson

 

UST Resistance/Support Table

 

CT3 CT5 CT7 CT10 CT30
RESISTANCE LEVEL 99-14+ 98-28+ 98-25 95-18+ 96-18
RESISTANCE LEVEL 99-13 98-23 98-18 95-08+ 95-29+
RESISTANCE LEVEL 99-12 98-176 98-14 95-02+ 95-08
         
SUPPORT LEVEL 99-07+ 98-07 97-28+ 94-11+ 93-16
SUPPORT LEVEL 99-05+ 98-01 97-21 94-01+ 92-25+
SUPPORT LEVEL 99-036 97-21+ 97-04+ 93-12 91-190

 

Tomorrow’s Calendar

 

  • China Data: Nothing Scheduled
  • Japan Data: Nothing Scheduled
  • Australia: Nothing Scheduled
  • EU Data: EC-Trade Balance, CPI U.K.-CBI Trends
  • S. Data: Housing Starts, Building Permits
  • Supply: U.K. bills
  • Events: Nothing Scheduled
  • Speeches: Weidmann, Constancio

(more…)

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