Browsing articles tagged with "Mischler Financial Archives - Page 3 of 11 - Mischler Financial Group"
MSFT Mega Bond Deal Dashboard- Top 10 Biggest Debt Deals, Ever
January 2017      Debt Market Commentary   

Quigley’s Corner 01.30.17 Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) Mega Bond Deal: To

 

Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap  – Microsoft Pumps Up Volume with $17b 7-Part That Tied for 9th Largest Issue in History

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and January 

Microsoft’s $17b 7-Part Deal Dashboard
NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

New Issues Priced

Indexes and New Issue Volume
Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending January 25th     

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

IG Credit Spreads by Industry 
New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline

Economic Data Releases

Tomorrow’s Calendar

 

microsoft-mega-bond-deal-mischler

Microsoft pushed up YTD and MTD volume with its mega  $17b 7-part Senior Notes new issue today across 3s, 5s, 7s, 10s, 20s, 30s and 40-year tranches.  As a result, we are within a breath of the all-time highest volume month for all-in (IG Corporates plus SSA) issuance.  The number one ranked month is the $213.40b priced in May 2016.  We are literally a mere $268 million away from breaking thru that number.  The record should come tomorrow.

MTD we’ve already blown past the syndicate desk midpoint average forecast by an amazing 72% or $158.23b vs. $91.96b. As for my call for $160b well, it’s looking pretty smart, if I may be so bold as to say.  As for the WTD syndicate projection, we’ve already priced 82% of the forecast for this week or $17.85b vs. $21.63b.  Pretty incredible stuff right there folks!

Mischler Financial was honored to serve as an active Co-Manager on today’s mega Microsoft deal.  So let’s first run through the recaps and volume tables before I get to the MSFT Deal Dashboard.

 

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

 

  • Today’s $17b 7-part Microsoft new issue tied for 9th place as the largest issue on record.
  • January 2017 is only $268mm away from becoming the highest volume month in history for all-in (IG Corporate plus SSA) issuance.
  • USAA Capital Corp. upsized its 2yr 144a Senior FRNs due 2/01/2019 new issue to $350mm from $300mm at the launch and at the tightest side of guidance.
  • The average spread compression from IPTs thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 9 IG Corporate-only new issues was <17.22> bps.
  • BAML’s IG Master Index tightened 1 bp to +126 vs. +127.  +106 represents the post-Crisis low dating back to July 2007.
  • Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS was unchanged at +120.  The “LUACOAS” wide since 2012 is +215.  +120 is the new tight.
  • Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread was unchanged at +164.  The +140 reached on July 30th 2014 represents the post-Crisis low.
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $21.2b on Thursday versus $23.0b on Wednesday and $23.5b the previous Thursday.
  • The 10-DMA stands at $19.3b.

 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and January 

 

IG Corporate New Issuance This Week
1/30-2/03
vs. Current
WTD – $17.85b
January 2017
Forecasts
vs. Current
MTD – $158.233b
Low-End Avg. $20.96b 85.16% $90.65b 174.55%
Midpoint Avg. $21.63b 82.52% $91.96b 172.07%
High-End Avg. $22.30b 80.04% $93.26b 169.67%
The Low $10b 178.5% $85b 186.16%
The High $27b 66.11% $120b 131.86%

 

Microsoft’s $17b 7-Part Deal Dashboard

Here’s a look at price compression from early morning initial price thoughts through guidance and the launch and final pricing of today’s $17b 7-part mega deal that tied for the 9th largest deal in history along with Apple’s April 30th, 2013 new issue and MDT’S deal that priced on 12/01/2014.

Today’s seven tranches posted a cumulative average contraction of <17.14> bps through price evolution or IPTs to the launch and final pricing.

Here’s a look at how it all evolved:

 

MSFT Issue IPTs GUIDANCE LAUNCH PRICED Spread
Compression
NICs
(bps)
Trading +/-
3yr +60a +45a (+/-5) +40 +40 <20> bps 4 39/ <1>
5yr +70a +55a (+/-5) +50 +50 <20> bps 4 48/ <2>
7yr +90a +75a (+/-5) +70 +70 <20> bps 11 68/ <2>
10yr +100a +90a (+/-5) +85 +85 <15> bps 11 84/ <1>
20yr +115a +105a (+/-5) +100 +100 <15> bps 10 97/ <3>
30yr +130a +120a (+/-5) +115 +115 <15> bps 10 113/ <2>
40yr +155a +145a (+/-5) +140 +140 <15> bps 15 138/ <2>

 

……….and here’s a look at final book sizes and oversubscription rates that amounted to $36.9b for an overall bid-to-cover rate of 2.17x:

 

MSFT Issue Tranche Size Final Book
Size
Bid-to-Cover
Rate
3yr 1,500 3,700 2.47x
5yr 1,750 3,400 1.94x
7yr 2,250 5,600 2.49
10yr 4,000 7,700 1.925x
20yr 2,500 5,600 2.24x
30yr 3,000 6,200 2.07x
40yr 2,000 4,700 2.35x

 

 

Diversity & Inclusion- Powered by Microsoft  

Mischler Financial, the nation’s oldest Service Disabled Veteran broker-dealer was honored to once again be a very active part of Microsoft’s contributing Co-Manager Group.  Thanks to Microsoft’s top/down internal inclusion mandate, several diversity firms offered a chance to highlight their distribution capabilities.  Team Mischler thanks all of you at Microsoft and applauds your focus and commitment to strive to create an internal as well as external environment that helps Microsoft capitalize on the diversity of your people and the inclusion of ideas and business solutions to meet the needs of your increasingly global and diverse customer base.  Microsoft truly believes that building the best software means incorporating the talents of its varied workforce into its products and recognizing the needs and priorities of its diverse suppliers, customers and business partner base.  Not only do your products make the world smaller and more accessible to everyone but your corporate governance overlays that technology with an inclusive mandate that eliminates barriers, improves businesses and encourages a healthy spirit of competition among competing broker dealers. Hey, it’s all about setting a great example from the top of the Company across to its employees, vendors and customers.  It starts from the top down and in Microsoft’s case it all begins within the office of CEO and Indian-American, Satya Nadella.  For their meaningful and long standing D&I ambition, and for leading by example, you are all the recipient of this evening’s Mischler five-star salute.  We appreciate the opportunity to serve you today and for affording us the chance to expand our platform by accessing your new issue for our rapidly expanding high quality distribution network.  So, thank you all very much.

Thanks also to all of our high quality global accounts who cumulatively contributed a total of 143 individual orders and a total of $439 million across today’s 7-part Senior transaction.  We’re happy when you are happy and by giving us this great opportunity today those accounts have elevated their trust and respect for what we work hard to do here each every day at Mischler Financial.

 

Microsoft Final Pricing

MSFT $1.5bn 1.85% due 2/6/20 @ $99.933 to yield 1.873% or T+40. MW+10.

MSFT $1.75bn 2.40% due 2/6/22 @ $99.785 to yield 2.446% or T+50. MW+10.

MSFT $2.25bn 2.875% due 2/6/24 @ $99.272 to yield 2.991% or T+70. MW+12.5.

MSFT $4bn 3.30% due 2/6/27 @ $99.645 to yield 3.342% or T+85. MW+15.

MSFT $2.5bn 4.10%due 2/6/37 @ $99.783 to yield 4.116% or T+100. MW+15.

MSFT $3bn 4.25% due 2/6/47 @ $99.731 to yield 4.266% or T+115. MW+20.

MSFT $2bn 4.50% due 2/6/57 @ $99.705 to yield 4.516% or T+140. MW+25.

 

 

Below please find my synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary from today’s debt capital markets, including the investment grade corporate bond data drill down as seen from my seat here in Syndicate, Sales and DCM.

 

Have a great evening!

Ron Quigley

 

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

 

…..and here’s another look at last week’s day-by-day re-cap of key primary market driver averages for IG Corporates only followed by the prior six week’s averages:

KEY IG CORPORATE
NEW ISSUE DRIVERS
MON.
1/23
TUES.
1/24
WED.
1/25
Th.
1/26
FRI.
1/27
AVERAGES
WEEK 1/23
AVERAGES
WEEK 1/16
AVERAGES
WEEK 1/09
AVERAGES
WEEK 1/02
AVERAGES
WEEK 12/26
AVERAGES
WEEK 12/19
New Issue Concessions 0.94 bps 0.58 bps 0.33 bps 6 bps N./A 1.13b bps 3.42 bps 0.85 bps 2.25 bps N/A N/A
Oversubscription Rates 2.60x 2.88x 4.82x 1.89x N/A 3.29x 2.40x 2.85x 2.45x N/A N/A
Tenors 8.54 yrs 5.75 yrs 6.11 yrs 9 yrs N/A 6.67 yrs 12 yrs 7.83 yrs 6.52 yrs N/A N/A
Tranche Sizes $1,006mm $581mm $883mm $1,000mm N/A $845mm $1,123mm $927mm $859mm N/A N/A
Avg. Spd. Compression
IPTs to Launch
<15.61> yrs <18.12> bps <23> bps <8.5> bps N/A <18.20> bps <14.69> bps <18.77> bps <15.27> bps N/A N/A

 

New Issues Priced

Today’s recap of visitors to our IG dollar Corporate and SSA DCM:

For ratings I use the better two of Moody’s, S&P or Fitch.

 

IG          

Issuer Ratings Coupon Maturity Size IPTs GUIDANCE LAUNCH PRICED
Crown Castle Int’l. Corp. Baa3/BBB- 4.00% 3/01/2027 500 +175-180 +160a (+/-3) +157 +157
Microsoft Corp. Aaa/AAA 1.85% 2/06/2020 1,500 +60a +45a (+/-5) +40 +40
Microsoft Corp. Aaa/AAA 2.40% 2/06/2022 1,750 +70a +55a (+/-5) +50 +50
Microsoft Corp. Aaa/AAA 2.875% 2/06/2024 2,250 +90a +75a (+/-5) +70 +70
Microsoft Corp. Aaa/AAA 3.30% 2/06/2027 4,000 +100a +90a (+/-5) +85 +85
Microsoft Corp. Aaa/AAA 4.10% 2/06/2037 2,500 +115a +105a (+/-5) +100 +100
Microsoft Corp. Aaa/AAA 4.25% 2/06/2047 3,000 +130a +120a (+/-5) +115 +115
Microsoft Corp. Aaa/AAA 4.50% 2/06/2057 2,000 +155a +145a (+/-5) +140 +140
USAA Capital Corp. Aa1/AA FRN 2/01/2019 350 3mL+high30s/
+37.5a
3mL+23-25 3mL+23 3mL+23

 

 

Indexes and New Issue Volume
*Denotes new tight.

 

Index Open Current Change
IG27 64.157 65.788 1.631
HV27 135.835 137.765 1.93
VIX *10.58 11.88 1.30
S&P 2,294 2,280 <14>
DOW 20,093 19,971 <122>
 

USD

 

IG Corporates

 

USD

 

Total (IG + SSA)

DAY: $17.85 bn DAY: $18.10 bn
WTD: $17.85 bn WTD: $18.10 bn
MTD: $158.233 bn MTD: $213.133 bn
YTD: $158.233 bn YTD: $213.133 bn

 

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending January 25th     

     

  • For the week ended January 25th, Lipper U.S. Fund Flows reported an inflow of $1.589b into Corporate Investment Grade Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $9.697b) and a net outflow of $532.417m from High Yield Funds (2016 YTD net outflow of $121.533m).
  • Over the same period, Lipper reported a net inflow of $1.024b into Loan Participation Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $3.769b).
  • Emerging Market debt funds reported a net outflow of $149.265m (2016 YTD inflow of $165.602m).

 

IG Credit Spreads by Rating (more…)

Mischler IG Debt Market Comment: Knowing Past for the Future; Eye on AEP
January 2017      Debt Market Commentary   

Quigley’s Corner 01.27.17 – Investment Grade Corporate Debt Outlook; Eye on AEP

 

Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap 

Utility Update re: American Electric Power (NYSE:AEP)

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and January 

The Best and the Brightest –  Fixed Income Syndicate Forecasts and Sound Bites for Next Week 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for Next Week and February

“Knowing the Past for the Future” – A Look at a Decade’s Worth of December IG Corporate and SSA Issuance

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

This Week’s IG New Issues and Where They’re Trading

Indexes and New Issue Volume

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending January 25th     

IG Credits by Rating

IG Credit Spreads by Industry

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

Tomorrow’s Calendar

It was a no-print Friday.  There were a couple filings for Seagate and McKesson, meaning they could be on the short-term horizon for issuance.  Blackouts may prevent a monster week next week, but I am hearing the week after next things should start to build up again for our IG Corporate primary markets (barring a black swan fly over!)
Let’s recap things: first up front and then it’s onto those people who pitch, price and print YOUR deals.  They’re all waiting for you to scroll down below and greet them. That’s right, Friday means it’s time for the “Best & and the Brightest” that syndicate has to offerThey’re all here again to share their numbers, ranges and thoughts on both next week AND February projected new issuance of U.S. investment grade corporate debt. So, pull up a chair, sit down, relax and allow me to inform you through the manifestation of their gracious time and patronage!
Utility Update re: American Electric Power

It’s been in my M&A Pipeline near page bottom of the “QC” every day now for over 4 months – “On Wednesday, September 14th, American Electric Power (“AEP) (Baa1/BBB+) agreed to sell four power plants in the Midwest for a total of $2.17b to a private equity firm created by Blackstone Group and ArcLight Capital Partners. AEP is divesting of many wholesale power markets focusing instead more on its regulated utility businesses.  The closing of the transaction is expected sometime in Q1 2017.”

Well, that was then and this is now.  AEP is expected to close that $2.17b sale “very soon.” On the heels of very strong 2016 earnings that saw EPS beat $3.94 vs. $3.81 estimates and $3.69 the prior year, combined with successful rate base investments and rate increases, AEP looks to be in a very strong position warranting recent S&P upgrades across its corporate structure while keeping them all on a “positive” credit watch. It’s a utility to watch folks.

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

  • Market tone was incredibly strong today. Taking a look at the secondary trading performance of this week’s IG and SSA new issues, of the 32 deals that printed, 28 tightened versus new issue pricing for a 50% improvement rate while 2 widened (6.25%) and 2 were flat (6.25%). It sets things up nicely for further issuance ahead!
  • For the week ended January 25th, Lipper U.S. Fund Flows reported an inflow of $1.589b into Corporate Investment Grade Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $9.697b) and a net outflow of $532.417m from High Yield Funds (2016 YTD net outflow of $121.533m).
  • BAML’s IG Master Index tightened 1 bp to +126 vs. +127.  +106 represents the post-Crisis low dating back to July 2007.
  • Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS was unchanged at +120.  The “LUACOAS” wide since 2012 is +215.  +120 is the new tight.
  • Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread was unchanged at +164.  The +140 reached on July 30th 2014 represents the post-Crisis low.
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $21.2b on Thursday versus $23.0b on Wednesday and $23.5b the previous Thursday.
  • The 10-DMA stands at $19.3b.

 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and January 

 

IG Corporate New Issuance This Week
1/23-1/27
vs. Current
WTD – $23.65b
January 2017
Forecasts
vs. Current
MTD – $140.383b
Low-End Avg. $19.09b 123.89% $107.87b 130.14%
Midpoint Avg. $20.46b 115.59% $108.41b 129.49%
High-End Avg. $21.83b 108.34% $108.96b 128.84%
The Low $15b 1157.67% $80b 175.48%
The High $26b 90.96% $145b 96.82%

 

The Best and the Brightest” –  Syndicate Forecasts and Sound Bites for Next Week

I am happy to announce that, once again, the “QC” received unanimous responses from the 23 syndicate desks surveyed in today’s Best & Brightest poll.  21 of those participants are among 2017’s YTD top 23 ranked syndicate desks according to today’s Bloomberg’s U.S. IG U.S. Investment Grade Corporate Bond underwriting league table.  In fact, 22 of today’s 23 participants finished in the top 25 of last year’s 2016 final IG Corporate Bloomberg league table.  The 2017 League table can be found on your terminals at “LEAG” + [GO] after which you select (US Investment Grade Corporates).  The participating desks represent 87.97% of all IG dollar-denominated new issue underwriting as of today’s table share percentage which simply means they’re the ones with visibility.  But it’s not only about their volume forecasts, it’s also about their comments!  This core syndicate group does it best; they know best; so they’re the ones you WANT and NEED to hear from.  It’s a great look at the week ahead.

*Please note that these are Investment Grade Corporates only. They do not include SSA issuance unless otherwise noted.

As always “thank you” to all the syndicate desks that participated in today’s survey.  I greatly appreciate your time to contribute and for making this edition of the “QC” among the most widely read! You are helping to promote Mischler’s value-added DCM proposition while adding readership to the “QC” that won Wall Street Letter’s Award as Best Broker Dealer Research in our financial services industry for the third consecutive year! That’s 2014, 2015 and 2016. 

We framed the following background info for our 23 fixed income syndicate peers throughout the top Wall Street banks…folks who are in the know..
Will January 2017 break the all-time monthly volume record?

  • WTD, we surpassed the syndicate midpoint average forecast by over 23% or $23.65b vs. $20.46b.
  • MTD we priced over 29% more than the January average forecast or $140.383b vs. $108.41b.
  • All-in YTD IG Corporate and SSA issuance stands at $195.133b making it the 2nd highest monthly volume of all-time. We have $18.267b to break the record set in May 2016 of $213.40b. Will we get there?

Here are this week’s five IG Corporate-only key primary market driver averages after the close of yesterday’s:

  • NICS:  1.13 bps
  • Oversubscription Rates: 3.29x
  • Tenors:  6.67 years
  • Tranche Sizes: $845mm
  • Spread Compression from IPTs to the Launch: <18.20> bps

Here’s how this week’s performance data compares against last week’s:

  • NICs tightened 2.29 bps to 1.13 bps vs. 3.42 bps last week.
  • Over subscription or bid-to-cover rates grew by 0.89x to 3.29x vs. 2.40x. 
  • Average tenors dramatically compressed by 5.33 years to 6.67 years vs. 12 years.
  • Tranche sizes reduced $278mm to $845mm vs. $1,123.
  • Spread compression from IPTs to the launch/final pricing of this week’s 28 IG Corporate-only new issues tightened by <3.51> bps to <18.20> vs. <14.69> bps.
  • Standard and Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spreads tightened 1 bp to +164 vs. +165.
  • Week-on-week, BAML’s IG Master Index tightened 2 bps to +126 vs. +128. 
  • Spreads across the four IG asset classes tightened 1.50 bps to 19.00 vs. 20.50 bps as measured against their post-Crisis lows. 
  • The 19 major industry sectors tightened 0.95 bps to 24.00 vs. 24.95 bps also against their post-Crisis lows.

As more and more major corporations exit blackouts, we increase the chances of further issuance ahead.  Thus far in his first week as our new President, Donald Trump has been true to his word – he has disrupted D.C. (as well as airports) through an assortment of measures including but not limited to: (i) issuing an executive order to roll back Obamacare, (ii) froze new federal agency regulations for review, (iii) claims to be re-negotiating NAFTA,(iv) pulled the U.S. out of the TPP, (v) met or spoken with U.K., Canadian and Mexican leaders while encouraging U.S. companies to grow jobs in America by closing their foreign plants.  He has taken action on his campaign promise to build a wall along our southern border with Mexico and restricting immigration laws. Those latter steps have also created mass protests throughout the country and in many other countries. On Election Day November 8th, 2016 the DOW closed at 18,332.  Today the Dow sits at an all-time high of 20,100. That’s up 1,768 points or 9.64% making it the number one ranked Post-Election gain since 1900 eclipsing the 7.75% gain of Calvin Coolidge’s Presidency in the Roaring Twenties. Reminding those of us across the financial industry to advance the caveat: “Past performance is not to be considered an indication of future performance.”

The “Best and the Brightest” in Their Own Words

……..……and here are their formidable responses: (more…)

Trump’s Tweet-Driven Policy Approach Propels Stock Prices; Can This Continue?
January 2017      Equities Market Commentary   

Peruzzi’s Perch – Jan 26 2017- Forget About Fed Policy and Rates- Equities Markets Are All About Trump Tweets (Still?!)

larry-peruzzi-mischler-equitiies

Larry Peruzzi

U.S. equity markets close the week in record territory, as the Dow Jones finally crosses the 20,000 Maginot line on Wednesday. Fueled by business friendly policy and rhetoric out of Washington, relatively inexpensive energy, improving corporate earnings and low rates the Dow recorded 2nd fastest 1,000-point move in history (42 days). What was a FED/rate driven market, which was preceded by the Oil driven market, has been replaced by a Presidential policy/tweet-driven market.

This week we saw rallies in cement and steel stocks when President Trump signaled he was forging on with his boarder wall as well as rallies in energy stocks when the Keystone and Dakota XL pipelines were reopened. Across the border Mexican stocks even lost 1.4% on Thursday after Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto canceled a scheduled meeting at the White House. Fed watching has been replaced by Tweet watching and so far, the equity markets like what it is seeing. Historically when markets cross into record territory we normally see a brief pause while analyst access valuations. Additional positive news was received after the close on Thursday as earning from Microsoft, Intel and Alphabet beat estimates. As of Thursday 161 of the S&P 500 names have reported with 120 (74.5%) reporting a positive surprise and 38 (23.6%) reporting a negative surprise.

Next week 24 S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report earnings. The reporting firms are dominated by retailers.  It will also be an important week economically with Dallas Fed activity on Monday, Chicago Purchasing managers on Tuesday, a FOMC rate decision on Wednesday (no change expected), productivity and labor cost on Wednesday and the ever important January employment report closing out the week on Friday. The FED Funds rate, despite Chairwoman Yellen calls for increased magnitudes of rate increases, is not expected to change. Fed funds are only pricing a 14.5% probability of a rate hike for Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. Friday’s employment reported should see a lot of attention. A positive report is sure to be met by the suddenly customary round of tweets and promotion.  It may however be a tad bit early to put much emphasis on the report. The April, May and June reports should be much better harbinger of the effectiveness of the Trump agenda toward job creation. With the Dow Jones now over the 20,000 level, after 6 failed attempts in December and January, we will be looking for signals on the strength and sustainability of the bullish sentiment. There are some concerns over Trump’s protectionism and the recent decline in the U.S dollar has made some foreign investors nervous. Global markets are in rally mode but with European referendums this spring, trade agreements being rewritten and rising political tension there is uneasiness about it.

Asian Markets are expected to be quite as the Lunar New Year holiday commences Friday. Chinese markets will remain closed until next Friday. 2017 is the year of the Rooster. The Rooster is almost the epitome of fidelity and punctuality. Investors would be well served by being loyal to facts and details on their trades and in being punctual, as we have entered a market environment never seen before.

Larry Peruzzi

Managing Director International Trading

Mischler Financial Group

Investment Banking | Institutional Brokerage

Ph:   1-617-420-8472

Larry Peruzzi is a 20 yr global trading markets veteran and brings a unique perspective to global equities market commentary via Mischler Financial Group, the securities industry’s oldest minority broker-dealer owned and operated by service-disabled veterans.  Larry’s experience  and best execution perspective stems from his sitting on ‘both sides of the aisle.’  For more than half of Larry’s career, he ran buy-side trading desks for Standish Mellon and thereafter, The Boston Company. In both of those roles, Larry was responsible for implementing and managing international equities trade execution. Larry’s perspectives are frequently cited by the leading financial news publishers, including The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg LP and Reuters

Mischler End of Week Equities Market Commentary via Peruzzi’s Perch January 26 end-of-week edition is distributed via email to institutional investment managers and Fortune Treasury clients of veteran-owned broker-dealer Mischler Financial Group, the investment industry’s oldest and largest minority broker-dealer owned and operated by Service-Disabled Veterans.

Peruzzi’s Perch is a weekly synopsis of Everything Equities as seen from the perch of Mischler Financial Group’s International Equities Desk. Cited by Wall Street Letter in each of 2014, 2015 and 2016 for “Best Research / Broker-Dealer”, Peruzzi’s Perch is one of four distinctive content pieces produced by Mischler Financial Group.

To receive Peruzzi’s Perch, please contact Larry Peruzzi, Managing Director, International Equities via email: lperuzzi@mischlerfinancial.com or via phone.

(more…)

European Corporate Debt Issuance Mkt: Fill ‘Yer Boots Mode
January 2017      Debt Market Commentary   

Quigley’s Corner 01.24.17 Eye on European Corporate Debt Issuance: Fill Yer Boots

“..Today’s all-in US Investment Grade day total issuance makes January issuance $182.433b; the 3rd busiest month on record..”

 

Investment Grade Corporate Debt New Issue Re-Cap – January 2017 Now 3rd Highest Volume Month on Record!
Global Market Recap

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and January 

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

New Issues Priced

Indexes and New Issue Volume

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending January 18th     

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

IG Credit Spreads by Industry

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

Tomorrow’s Calendar

It was perhaps a rather subdued IG primary market today in the U.S. but we did wind up featuring 3 IG Corporate issuers that priced 8 tranches between them totaling $4.65.  SSA also assisted in boosting the volume totals as 2 issuers priced 2 tranches amounting to $3.25b.  Today’s all-in IG day total is now $182.433b making it as the 3rd busiest month on record.

However, allow me to tell you about London’s European issuance where the primary market remains “hot.”  What’s that mean?  How about this – today, according to friend, former BNP Paribas colleague and Bloomberg Editorial Primary Market Strategist, Paul Cohen, “Europe remains in a “fill yer boots” mode across the pond.  Notably, of the 151 YTD syndicated transactions, 100 of them (66%) have trended tighter vs. launch/final pricing.  Despite that Europe was expecting a busy week this week they certainly did not anticipate the €32b priced in the in first two sessions.  It’s staggering! Today in particular saw 10 issuers price 11 tranches totaling €27.68b making it the third largest issuance day in Europe in 3 years according to his Bloomberg records. Today’s U.K. 40-year gilt transaction amassed a record £23b in investor order interest while total demand for 3 sovereign bond new issues eclipsed €80b equivalent.  Paul said the reason is that “the latest rise in underlying rates, fueled by improving macro sentiment, appears to be buoying risk appetite.” It sure does.

 

Global Market Recap

 

  • U.S. Treasuries – Bad day for USTs & bonds in Europe. JGB’s closed mixed. Supply a factor.
  • Stocks – Good day for U.S. stocks with record highs for the S&P and NASDAQ.
  • Overseas Stocks – Europe had a good day (not Ireland), Japan red and China mixed.
  • Economic – Markit manufacturing improved. Low inventory holding back existing home sales.
  • Overseas Economic – Solid data in Japan & Europe.
  • Currencies – USD outperformed all of the Big 5. Yesterday was the opposite.
  • Commodities – Big day for copper. Crude oil higher & gold lower.
  • CDX IG: -1.32 to 65.12
  • CDX HY: -5.52 to 346.69
  • CDX EM: -0.81 to 236.23

*CDX levels are as of 3:30PM ET today.

-Tony Farren

 

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

 

  • Mischler Financial served as a passive underwriter on Morgan Stanley’s $1b (40mm share) 5.85% PerpNC10 fixed-to-floating rate non-cumulative $25 par preferred Series “K” today.  Thank you to MS Preferred Syndicate’s Michael “Captain Morgan” Borut for selecting Mischler as an underwriter from among the many diversity broker-dealers to choose from. It is always appreciated Mike! The transaction rated (Ba1/BB/BB+) started with IPT’s in the 6.125% “area” before tightening 25 bps to revised 5.875% “area” guidance and 2.5 bps tighter into the 5.85% launch for an impressive <27.5> of spread compression throughout price evolution.
    The average spread compression from IPTs thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 8 IG Corporate-only new issues was 18.12 bps.
  • BAML’s IG Master Index was unchanged at +128.  +106 represents the post-Crisis low dating back to July 2007.
  • Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS was unchanged at +122.  The “LUACOAS” wide since 2012 is +215. The tight is +122.
  • Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread was unchanged at +165.  The +140 reached on July 30th 2014 represents the post-Crisis low.
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $17.1b on Monday versus $15.2b on Friday.
  • The 10-DMA stands at $18.7b.

 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and January 

 

IG Corporate New Issuance This Week
1/23-1/27
vs. Current
WTD – $13.70b
January 2017
Forecasts
vs. Current
MTD – $130.433b
Low-End Avg. $19.09b 71.77% $107.87b 120.92%
Midpoint Avg. $20.46b 66.96% $108.41b 120.31%
High-End Avg. $21.83b 62.76% $108.96b 119.71%
The Low $15b 91.33% $80b 163.04%
The High $26b 52.69% $145b 89.95%

 

Below please find my synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary from today’s debt capital markets, including the investment grade corporate bond data drill down as seen from my seat here in Syndicate, Sales and DCM

 

Have a great evening!

Ron Quigley, Managing Director & Head of Fixed Income Syndicate

 

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

 

Here’s a review of this week’s five key primary market driver averages for IG Corporates only through Monday’s session followed by the averages over the prior six weeks:

KEY IG CORPORATE
NEW ISSUE DRIVERS
MON.
1/23
AVERAGES
WEEK 1/16
AVERAGES
WEEK 1/09
AVERAGES
WEEK 1/02
AVERAGES
WEEK 12/26
AVERAGES
WEEK 12/19
AVERAGES
WEEK 12/12
New Issue Concessions 0.94 bps 3.42 bps 0.85 bps 2.25 bps N/A N/A <0.50> bps
Oversubscription Rates 2.60x 2.40x 2.85x 2.45x N/A N/A 2.41x
Tenors 8.54 yrs 12 yrs 7.83 yrs 6.52 yrs N/A N/A 10.67 yrs
Tranche Sizes $1,006mm $1,123mm $927mm $859mm N/A N/A $708mm
Avg. Spd. Compression
IPTs to Launch
<15.61> yrs <14.69> bps <18.77> bps <15.27> bps N/A N/A <17.17> bps

 

New Issues Priced

Today’s recap of visitors to our IG dollar Corporate and SSA DCM:

For ratings I use the better two of Moody’s, S&P or Fitch.

 

IG          

Issuer Ratings Coupon Maturity Size IPTs GUIDANCE LAUNCH PRICED LEADS
IBM Aa3/AA- FRN 1/27/2020 500 3mL+equib 3mL+equiv 3mL+23 3mL+23 BNPP/CS/HSBC/MIZ/RBC
IBM Aa3/AA- 1.90% 1/27/2020 750 +60a +45-50 +45 +45 BNPP/CS/HSBC/MIZ/RBC
IBM Aa3/AA- 2.50% 1/27/2022 1,000 +75a +60-65 +60 +60 BNPP/CS/HSBC/MIZ/RBC
IBM Aa3/AA- 3.30% 1/27/2027 500 +100a +90-95 +90 +90 BNPP/CS/HSBC/MIZ/RBC
Jackson Nat’l. Life Glbl. Fdg. AA/AA 2.20% 1/30/2020 400 +85a +75 the # +75 +75 BARC/CS/DB/MS
Jackson Nat’l. Life Glbl. Fdg. AA/AA 3.25% 1/30/2024 500 +110a +100 the # +100 +100 BARC/CS/DB/MS
Tech Data Corporation Baa3/BBB- 3.70% 2/15/2022 500 +low 200s
+212.5a
+185a (+/-5) +180 +180 BAML/CITI/JPM
Tech Data Corporation Baa3/BBB- 4.95% 2/15/2027 500 +high 200s +287.5a +255a (+/-5) +250 +250 BAML/CITI/JPM

 

SSA

Issuer Ratings Coupon Maturity Size IPTs GUIDANCE LAUNCH PRICED LEADS
Nordic Investment Bank Aaa/AAA 2.125% 2/01/2022 1,250 MS +19a MS +18a MS +17 +23.5 CITI/JPM/RBC/TD
Province of Quebec Aa2/AA- 2.375% 1/31/2022 2,000 MS +46a MS +44a MS +43 +49.15 BAML/BMO/DB/SCOT

 

Indexes and New Issue Volume

Please note that below levels are as of 3:45pm ET.

 

Index Open Current Change  
IG27 66.447 65.188 <1.259>
HV27 140.44 138.89 <1.55>
VIX 11.77 11.28 <0.49>  
S&P 2,265 2,282 17
DOW 19,800 19,919 119  
 

USD

 

IG Corporates

 

USD

 

Total (IG + SSA)

DAY: $4.65 bn DAY: $7.90 bn
WTD: $13.70 bn WTD: $16.95 bn
MTD: $130.433 bn MTD: $182.433 bn
YTD: $130.433 bn YTD: $182.433 bn

 

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending January 18th     

     

  • For the week ended January 18th, Lipper U.S. Fund Flows reported an inflow of $1.893b into Corporate Investment Grade Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $8.108b) and a net outflow of $887.116m from High Yield Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $410.884m).
  • Over the same period, Lipper reported a net inflow of $548.36m into Loan Participation Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $2.745b).
  • Emerging Market debt funds reported a net inflow of $77.439m (2016 YTD inflow of $314.867m).

 

IG Credit Spreads by Rating (more…)

Pre-Presidential Inauguration: Big Banks Float Boatload of Debt Deals
January 2017      Debt Market Commentary   

Quigley’s Corner 01.17.17 – Big Banks Issue Boatloads of Debt; Investor Appetite for IG Debt is Resilient 

 

Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap – “Banking” on Change – 3 Big FIGs Unleash 3 Deals, 9 Tranches and $18.75b on Heels of Strong Q4 ’16 Earnings.

Global Market Recap

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for January 

Morgan Stanley Inc. $3b 10 year Deal Dashboard

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

New Issues Priced

Indexes and New Issue Volume

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending January 11th     

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

Tomorrow’s Calendar

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

IG Credit Spreads by Industry

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline

 

As Bloomberg Gladfy columnist Lisa Abramowicz pointed out in her Jan 6 story “The Credit Boom Just Won’t Die”, –which included your’s truly cited for providing the most accurate forecast re debt issuance, three more banks joined the pre-Presidential Inauguration day fray to satisfy investors’ insatiable appetite for Investment Grade debt and floated $20.75bil in fresh paper, breaking the weekly fixed income syndicate forecast in a single day.. 

6 IG Corporate issuers announced a total of 13 tranches between them totaling $20.75b.  But, make no mistake about it, the day belonged to the Big FIGs Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo who between them accounted for  9 of the tranches and just over 90% of the day’s volume.  We are now one day into the holiday-shortened week, yet we’ve already priced 90% of this week’s syndicate midpoint average estimate calling for $23.07b.  Tomorrow looks to be loaded with SSA issuers who were absent today yet who began taken IOIs on tomorrow’s deals.  Slated for Tuesday are IBRD, OKB, KBN, FMS and CPPIB Capital.  So, heavy IG all-in volume is expected therein.

Mischler Financial served as a “passive” Co-Manager on today’s 10-year fixed rate tranche of Morgan Stanley’s three-part 5NC4, 10s and 30s making it today’s Deal-of-the-Day for the nation’s oldest Service Disabled Veteran broker-dealer.  Let’s run down Global, Primary and Secondary Market Recaps and then I’ll get to the MS 3-part drill-down.

 

Global Market Recap

 

  • U.S. Treasuries – Strong session for USTs after Trump said the USD is too strong.
  • Overseas Bonds – JGB’s closed with gains. Europe had more green than red.
  • 3mth Libor – Set at its highest yield since May 2009 (1.02483%).
  • Stocks – The NASDAQ was leading stocks south at 3:30pm.
  • Overseas Stocks – Europe more red than green. Nikkei red. China/HS closed higher.
  • Economic – Light calendar in the U.S. Japan & Europe were better. U.K. CPI higher.
  • Currencies – Trump said the USD was too strong & now it is not as strong.
  • Commodities – Crude oil small gain. Gold & silver were strong. Copper hit hard.
  • CDX IG: +0.97 to 66.79
  • CDX HY: +3.11 to 354.22
  • CDX EM: -1.15 to 233.23

*CDX levels are as of 3:30PM ET today.

-Tony Farren

 

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

 

  • Regency Centers LP upsized today’s two-part 10s/30s Senior Notes new issue to $650mm from $600mm at the launch and at the tightest side of guidance.
  • The average spread compression from IPTs thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 13 IG Corporate-only new issues was <14.04> bps.
  • BAML’s IG Master Index tightened 1 bp to +128 vs. +129.  +106 represents the post-Crisis low dating back to July 2007.
  • Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS was unchanged at +122.  The “LUACOAS” wide since 2012 is +215. The tight is +122.
  • Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread was unchanged at +166.  The +140 reached on July 30th 2014 represents the post-Crisis low.
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $13.7b on Friday versus $19.4b on Thursday and $18.1b the previous Friday.

 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for January 

 

IG Corporate New Issuance This Week
1/16-1/20
vs. Current
WTD – $20.75b
January 2017
Forecasts
vs. Current
MTD – $108.283b
Low-End Avg. $22.20b 93.47% $107.87b 100.38%
Midpoint Avg. $23.07b 89.94% $108.41b 99.88%
High-End Avg. $23.93b 86.71% $108.96b 99.38%
The Low $15b 138.33% $80b 135.35%
The High $36b 57.64 $145b 74.68%

 

Morgan Stanley Inc. $3b 10 year Deal Dashboard

 

This morning prior to the market open, Morgan Stanley posted its strongest quarterly earnings since the Financial Crisis and outperformed Q4 2015 by $950 million thanks to a bond trading revival that boosted MS’s bottom line.  Q4 ’16 Bond trading revenues surged $1.47b or 167% beating analyst’s estimates by $500mm.  That is the single largest amount among six-pack banks that have reported with Citigroup and Goldman Sachs posting tomorrow. Much the recent quarter activity is attributable to market expectations that Donald Trump and his cabinet will boost economic growth, revamp more favorable corporate tax policies and create more of a rising rate environment than the snail’s pace we’ve gotten used to.  Morgan Stanley’s Q4 net income rose 83% to $1.67b or $0.81 EPS vs. $908mm and $0.39 in Q4 2015.

Mischler served as a “passive” 1.00% Co-Manager on Morgan Stanley’s $3b 10-year tranche of their $7b three-part 5NC4, 10s and 30s.

For 10yr fair value I looked at the outstanding MS 2.625% due 11/17/2021 that was T+134 (G+136) pre-announcement landing NIC as 7 bps against today’s final +143 new 10yr pricing.

The new 5yr that priced at 3mL +118 looked to the outstanding MS 2.625 due 11/17/2021 that was seen T+107 bid pre-announcement or G+109.5 pegging NIC on today’s new 5yr as 8.5 bps to the 5yr bullet.

The 30yr comped best to the MS 4.30% due 1/27/2045 T+133 nailing today’s new 30 yr NIC as 15 bps versus today’s final T+148 pricing.

 

As for Morgan’s inclusive focus on veterans and veteran initiatives and Mischler’s designation to play a role in this transaction, Morgan Stanley Chairman and Chief Executive Officer James Gorman says, “Morgan Stanley thanks you for your service.  The military’s emphasis on the mission and the team, leadership accountability and continuous improvement aligns well with the culture of our Firm.”

To Mr. Gorman: It’s an honor to serve on your transaction. We always stand at the ready for you and Team Morgan Stanley.

 

 

MS Issue IPTs GUIDANCE LAUNCH PRICED Spread
Compression
NICs
(bps)
Trading at
the Break
+/-
(bps)
5yr 3mL+125a 3mL+120
(+/-2)
3mL+118 3mL+118 <7> bps 8.5 117/116 <1>
10yr FXD +155a +145a (+/-2) +143 +143 <12> bps 7 bps 143/141 0/flat
30yr +160a +150a (+/-2) +148 +148 <12> bps 15 bps 141/139 <7>

 

………and here’s a look at final book sizes and oversubscription rates:

 

MS  Issue Tranche Size Final Book
Size
Bid-to-Cover
Rate
5yr $1.75b $2.75b 1.57x
10yr FXD $3b $5.5b 1.83x
30yr $2.25b $5.1b 2.27x

 

Final Pricing – Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS)
MS $1.75b 3mL+118 due 1/20/2022 5NC4 FRN at $100.00

MS $3b 3.625% 10yr FXD due 1/20/2027 @ $98.999 to yield 3.746% or T+143  MW+25

MS $2.25b 4.375% 30yr FXD due 1/20/2047 @ $99.322 to yield 4.416% or T+148  MW+25

 

Below please find my synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary from today’s debt capital markets, including the investment grade corporate bond data drill down as seen from my seat here in Syndicate, Sales and DCM.

Have a great evening!

Ron Quigley, Managing Director & Head of Fixed Income Syndicate

 

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

 

KEY IG CORPORATE
NEW ISSUE DRIVERS
MON.
1/09
TUES.
1/10
WED.
1/11
TH.
1/12
FRI.
1/13
AVERAGES
WEEK 1/09
AVERAGES
WEEK 1/02
AVERAGES
WEEK 12/26
AVERAGES
WEEK 12/19
AVERAGES
WEEK 12/12
AVERAGES
WEEK 12/05
New Issue Concessions 0.57 bps 0.83 bps 0.67 bps 6.50 bps N/A 0.85 bps 2.25 bps N/A N/A <0.50> bps 4.26 bps
Oversubscription Rates 3.02x 2.85x 2.70x 2.70x N/A 2.85x 2.45x N/A N/A 2.41x 3.68x
Tenors 9.09 years 5.40 yrs 8 yrs 5.67 yrs N/A 7.83 yrs 6.52 yrs N/A N/A 10.67 yrs 9.21 yrs
Tranche Sizes $613mm $433mm $1,577mm $667mm N/A $927mm $859mm N/A N/A $708mm $760mm
Avg. Spd. Compression
IPTs to Launch
<15.32> bps <19.83> bps <21.46> bps <23.75> bps N/A <18.77> bps <15.27> bps N/A N/A <17.17> bps <22.24> bps

…..and here’s another look at last week’s day-by-day re-cap of key primary market driver averages for IG Corporates only followed by the prior six week’s averages:

 

New Issues Priced

Today’s recap of visitors to our IG dollar Corporate and SSA DCM:

For ratings I use the better two of Moody’s, S&P or Fitch.

 *Please note that Baptist Health South Florida Obligated Group priced on Monday, January 9th but was posted today.  It is italicized in the below table for informational purposes only but is not included in today’s IG Corporate day total.  The New Issue Volume tables below have been updated to reflect its inclusion.  Thanks! -RQ

IG          

Issuer Ratings Coupon Maturity Size IPTs GUIDANCE LAUNCH PRICED LEADS
Bank of America Baa1/A FRN 1/20/2023
6NC5
750 3mL+equiv 3mL+116 the # 3mL+116 3mL+116 BAC-sole
Bank of America Baa1/A 3.124% 1/20/2023
6NC5
1,500 +140 +130 the # +130 +130 BAC-sole
Bank of America Baa1/A 3.824% 1/20/2028
11NC10
2,500 +165a +150a (+/-2) +150 +150 BAC-sole
Bank of America Baa1/A 4.443% 1/20/2048
31NC30
2,000 +165a +150a (+/-2) +150 +150 BAC-sole
Guardian Life Ins. Co. of America AA-/AA- 4.85% 1/24/2077 350 +low 200s
+200-225/+212.5a
+200a (+/-5) +195 +195 CS/DB/JPM/MS
Kroger Co. Baa1/BBB 4.45% 2/01/2047 1,000 +160a +150 the # +150 +150 BAML/RBC/USB(a) + 3 (p)
Morgan Stanley A3/A FRN 1/20/2022
5NC4
1,750 3mL+125a 3mL+120 (+/-2) 3mL+118 3mL+118 MS-sole
Morgan Stanley A3/A 3.625% 1/20/2027 3,000 +155a +145a (+/-2) +143 +143 MS-sole
Morgan Stanley A3/A 4.375% 1/20/2047 2,250 +160a +150a (+/-2) +148 +148 MS-sole
Regency Centers LP Baa1/BBB+ 3.60% 2/01/2027 350 +150a +135a (+/-5) +130 +130 BAML/JPM/USB/WFS
Regency Centers LP Baa1/BBB+ 4.40% 2/01/2047 300 +175a +155a (+/-5) +150 +150 BAML/JPM/USB/WFS
Wells Fargo & Co. A2/AA- FRN 1/24/2023
6NC5
1,250 3mL+equiv (+125a) 3mL+111 the # 3mL+111 3mL+111 WFS-sole
Wells Fargo & Co. A2/AA- 3.069% 1/24/2023
6NC5
3,750 +140a +125 the # +125 +125 WFS-sole

 

 Indexes and New Issue Volume

*Denotes 52-week low.

Index Open Current Change
IG27 65.82 66.428 0.608
HV27 140.34 139.90 <0.44>
VIX *11.23 11.86 0.63
S&P 2,274 2,267 <7>
DOW 19,885 19,826 <59>
 

USD

 

IG Corporates

 

USD

 

Total IG (+SSA)

DAY: $20.75 bn DAY: 20.75 bn
WTD: $20.75 bn WTD: 20.75 bn
MTD: $108.283 bn MTD: $137.033 bn
YTD: $108.283 bn YTD: $137.033 bn

 

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending January 11th     

     

  • For the week ended January 11th, Lipper U.S. Fund Flows reported an inflow of $4.029b into Corporate Investment Grade Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $6.215b) and a net inflow of $563.51m into High Yield Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $1.298b).
  • Over the same period, Lipper reported a net inflow of $1.332b into Loan Participation Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $2.197b).
  • Emerging Market debt funds reported a net inflow of $172.277m (2016 YTD inflow of $237.428m).

 

Economic Data Releases

 

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA PERIOD SURVEYED ESTIMATES ACTUAL NUMBER PRIOR NUMBER PRIOR REVISED
Empire Manufacturing January 8.5 6.5 9.0 7.6

 

Rates Trading Lab

 

The week is off to an interesting start. Today we had some unwinding of the Trump trade with Treasuries rallying, stocks selling off and the USD getting whacked. The market is starting to realize Trump plans will have many hurdles to get over before they become a reality. At the 3pm close, benchmark Treasuries were better bid by 3.7 bps (2yr: 1.156%) to 5.8 bps (5yr: 1.826%).

 

Today’s highlights were:

 

  • President-Elect Trump told the WSJ the USD was already too strong and the USD paid a severe price for the comment. The USD was hit hard by all of the Big 5.
  • This morning, U.K. PM Theresa May said she will not pursue membership in the EU single market system. The Pound which had been under heavy pressure last week rallied on the May & Trump comments. It was the best day the Pound has had vs. the USD since 2008.
  • NY Fed President Dudley (voter/very dovish) was very dovish this morning. Dudley said the Fed is unlikely to snuff out the U.S. economic expansion and inflation is not a problem.
  • Conversely, Fed Gov. Brainard (dove) was hawkish in her comments today. Brainard was the 3rd Fed member in the New Year (2017) to mention the Fed balance sheet. Last Thursday St. Louis Fed Pres. Bullard (non-voter) and Dallas Fed Pres. Kaplan (voter) also mentioned the balance sheet. Something to keep your eye on.

 

UST Resistance/Support Table

 

CT3 CT5 CT7 CT10 CT30
RESISTANCE LEVEL 100-272 101-106 101-16 98-04+ 100-16
RESISTANCE LEVEL 99-31+ 101-046 101-07 97-24+ 99-25
RESISTANCE LEVEL 99-30 100-30 100-31 97-13+ 99-16
         
SUPPORT LEVEL 99-27 100-226 100-20 96-30 98-13
SUPPORT LEVEL 99-252 100-196 100-10 96-17 97-26
SUPPORT LEVEL 99-24 100-142 100-03 96-09 97-06

 

Tomorrow’s Calendar

 

  • China Data: Nothing Scheduled
  • Japan Data: Nothing Scheduled
  • Australia: Westpac Consumer Confidence
  • EU Data: German Dec CPI, EU Dec CPI, U.K. Dec Unem/Nov Earns
  • U.S. Data: MBA, Dec CPI, Dec IP/CapU, Jan NAHB, Nov TIC
  • Supply: ECB 7d$, BoC
  • Events: Nouy, Yellen, Kashkari, Kaplan, Olsen

(more…)

The Day’s New Debt Issuance: USD 22.5bil Floated Across 15 Deals
January 2017      Debt Market Commentary   

Quigley’s Corner 01.11.17-$22.5bil in New Debt Issuance Floated / 15 Deals; Led by Broadcom and GM Financial

 

Investment Grade Corporate Bond New Issue Re-Cap 

Global Market Recap

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for January 

Rates Trading Lab

General Motors Financial Co. Inc. $2.5b 3-part 5yr FXD/FRN and 10yr Senior Unsecured Notes Deal Dashboard

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

New Issues Priced

Indexes and New Issue Volume

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending January 4th     

IG Credit Spreads by Rating / Industry

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline

Economic Data Releases

Tomorrow’s Calendar

It was yet another very busy and high volume day today in our IG dollar DCM that featured 6 IG Corporate issuers across 13 tranches totaling $20.50b led by a $13.55b 4-part from Broadcom and a $2.5b 3-part deal from General Motors Financial Co. Inc.  Additionally, 2 SSA issuers brought 2 tranches adding another $1.75b thereby bringing the all-in IG day totals to 8 issuers, 15 tranches and $22.25b.

The WTD IG Corporate-only total is now $32.05b or 10% more than this week’s $30.13b syndicate midpoint average estimate.
MTD we have now realized $85.283b or 79% of the syndicate forecast for all of January which is $108.41b.
All-in IG Corporate plus SSA MTD issuance currently stands at: $111.533b.

Mischler Financial served as an active Co-Manager on today’s $2.5b 3-part Senior Unsecured Notes new issue for General Motors Financial Co. Inc. and so it is today’s Deal-of-the-Day.  You know the routine, let’s re-cap the day first and then it’s on to the GM Deal Dashboard and drill-down.

 

Global Market Recap

 

  • U.S. Treasuries –  USTs had small gains. Strong 10yr auction. Afternoon selling hit market.
  • Overseas Bonds – Europe traded with a bid. JGB’s mixed. Supply was a factor.
  • 3mth Libor – Set at the highest yield since April 2009 (1.02178%).
  • Stocks – U.S. stocks higher heading into close. Today was a roller coaster ride.
  • Overseas Stocks – FTSE (12) & HS (10) with double digit session winning streaks.
  • Economic – IBD/TIPP economic optimism at a 10-year high.
  • Currencies – USD had a bid until the Trump press conference & then rolled over.
  • Commodities – Crude oil with a strong rally despite bearish inventory data.
  • CDX IG: +0.16 to 66.24
  • CDX HY: +1.40 to 352.25
  • CDX EM: +0.68 to 241.96

*CDX levels are as of 3:30PM ET today.

-Tony Farren

 

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

 

  • The average spread compression from IPTs thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 13 IG Corporate-only new issues was <21.46> bps.
  • BAML’s IG Master Index was unchanged at +129.  +106 represents the post-Crisis low dating back to July 2007.
  • Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS was unchanged at +122.  The “LUACOAS” wide since 2012 is +215. The tight is +122.
  • Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread was unchanged at +166.  The +140 reached on July 30th 2014 represents the post-Crisis low.
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $20.3b on Tuesday versus $16.7b on Monday (the 7th highest day since 2006) and $22.4b the previous Tuesday.

 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for January 

 

IG Corporate New Issuance This Week
1/09-1/13
vs. Current
WTD – $32.05b
January 2017
Forecasts
vs. Current
MTD – $85.283b
Low-End Avg. $29.04b 110.37% $107.87b 79.06%
Midpoint Avg. $30.13b 106.37% $108.41b 78.67%
High-End Avg. $31.22b 102.66% $108.96b 78.27%
The Low $20b 160.25% $80b 106.60%
The High $40b 80.13% $145b 58.82%

 

Rates Trading Lab

If you were hoping to hear news on the Trump Administration’s plans for the economy (fiscal policy) in today’s press conference you were sorely disappointed. The mass media proved once again they are pretty close to being worthless. The majority of the questions directed to President-Elect Trump concerned Russia and Putin. Some of the things we did learn from Trump today were his plans to step away from the Trump Organization, he will pick a Supreme Court nominee within 2 weeks of his inauguration, he thinks leaks are coming from the intelligence community and CNN is not high on his list.

UST’s dealt with conflicting items today. The 10yr had a bid heading into the $20b 10yr auction and rallied after the auction results were very strong (details below). It was the 4th very strong Treasury auction in a row. Treasuries came under pressure after the auction bounce and the most likely reason for the selling was the 4-part $13.55b Broadcom deal. The deal was much bigger than expected ($6b). Broadcom was the highlight deal but not the only one today. The new issue markets in the U.S. and Europe remained very active. At the 3pm close  benchmark UST’s were better bid by 0.3 bps (5yr: 1.876%) to 1.4 bps (30yr: 2.957%).
-Tony Farren

 

UST Resistance/Support Table

 

CT3 CT5 CT7 CT10 CT30
RESISTANCE LEVEL 99-29 100-29+ 100-28+ 97-09+ 99-27+
RESISTANCE LEVEL 99-272 100-262 100-25+ 97-04 99-11
RESISTANCE LEVEL 99-26 100-222 100-18+ 96-29 98-26
           
SUPPORT LEVEL 99-22+ 100-156 100-10+ 96-18 97-27
SUPPORT LEVEL 99-20+ 100-12+ 100-05+ 96-11 97-08
SUPPORT LEVEL 99-18+ 100-09 100-00+ 96-04+ 96-17

 

General Motors Financial Co. Inc. $2.5b 3-part 5yr FXD/FRN and 10yr Senior Unsecured Notes Deal Dashboard (more…)

Mischler Muni Debt Market: 8bil in Deals Scheduled This Week
January 2017      Muni Market   

Mischler Municipal Bond Offering Outlook for the week commencing 01.09.17 looks back to last week’s metrics and provides a lens focused on selected municipal bond offerings for this week. As always, the Mischler Muni Market snapshot provides public finance investment managers, institutional investors focused on municipal debt and municipal bond market participants a summary of prior week’s muni bond activity, including credit spreads, money flows and a curated view of pending municipal finance offerings scheduled for this week’s issuance.

This week volume is expected to be $8.7 billion.  The negotiated market is led by $665.0 million for Triborough Bridge and Tunnel Authority, NY.  The competitive market Is led by $612.4 million general obligation bonds for the State of Washington in 3 bids on Tuesday.

mischler-municipal-debt-calendar-010917

Mischler Financial Group debt capital market expertise, inclusive of Debt Origination, Distribution, Primary Market Access and Secondary Market trading across the full spectrum of fixed income markets is courtesy of our 18-member team of debt market veterans is what makes MFG’s Fixed Income Group a compelling partner to Fortune issuers, corporate treasurers, municipal debt market issuers and the world’s leading institutional investors.

To illustrate our presence within the Debt Capital Markets space: since 2014 alone,  Mischler has led, co-managed and/or served as selling group member for more than $500 Billion (notional value) in new debt and preferred shares issued by Fortune corporations, new companies via IPO, as well as debt issued by various municipalities and US Government agencies.

Mischler Financial Group is a federally-certified Service-Disabled Veteran Owned Business Enterprise (SDVOBE) and a recognized minority broker-dealer. Mischler Muni Market updates are provided as a courtesy to institutional clients of Mischler Financial Group, Inc.

(more…)
Mischler Muni Market Outlook; Pending Deals Week of 01-03-17
January 2017      Muni Market   

Mischler Municipal Debt Market Outlook for the week commencing 01.03.17 looks back to last week’s metrics and provides a lens focused on selected municipal bond offerings for this week. As always, the Mischler Muni Market snapshot provides public finance investment managers, institutional investors focused on municipal debt and municipal bond market participants a summary of prior week’s muni bond activity, including credit spreads, money flows and a curated view of pending municipal finance offerings scheduled for this week’s issuance.

This week volume is expected to be $3.0 billion. The negotiated market is led by $570.0 million for the Board of Regents, Texas State University System. The competitive market has no sales in excess of $100 million except for $375.0 million TRAN’s for the State of Colorado on Thursday.

Below and attached is neither a recommendation or offer to purchase or sell securities. Mischler Financial Group is not a Municipal Advisor. For additional information, please contact Managing Director Richard Tilghman at 203.276.6656

mischler-muni-market-outlook-010317

Mischler Financial Group debt capital market expertise, inclusive of Debt Origination, Distribution, Primary Market Access and Secondary Market trading across the full spectrum of fixed income markets is courtesy of our 18-member team of debt market veterans is what makes MFG’s Fixed Income Group a compelling partner to Fortune issuers, corporate treasurers, municipal debt market issuers and the world’s leading institutional investors.

To illustrate our presence within the Debt Capital Markets space: since 2014 alone,  Mischler has led, co-managed and/or served as selling group member for more than $500 Billion (notional value) in new debt and preferred shares issued by Fortune corporations, new companies via IPO, as well as debt issued by various municipalities and US Government agencies.

Mischler Financial Group is a federally-certified Service-Disabled Veteran Owned Business Enterprise (SDVOBE) and a recognized minority broker-dealer. Mischler Muni Market updates are provided as a courtesy to institutional clients of Mischler Financial Group, Inc.

Mischler Muni Market Outlook; Pending Deals Week of 01-03-17
Distilling Yellen Comments; Mischler ROTC Cadet Thought-Leadership Sound Off
December 2016      Debt Market Commentary   

Quigley’s Corner 12.14.16 FOMC  Talking Points; UCLA ROTC Cadet Chamberlain On Leadership

 

Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap – Fed Raises Rates 0.25bps to a Range of 0.50% to 0.75

Global Market Recap

FOMC Statement Key Talking Points

The FOMC Statement Comparison – December 14th vs. November 2nd

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and December  

“At What Point Do Rising Rates Derail the New Issue Market?”

Mischler’s Favorite Army Cadet On Leadership ; UCLA ROTC Rachel Chamberlain Sounds Off

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

Indexes and New Issue Volume

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending December 7th     

IG Credit Spreads by Rating & Industry

 Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

Tomorrow’s Calendar

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline    

 

As expected issuers stood down today in the face of the session’s all-important FOMC Rate Decision combined with the quiet holiday period we are in.  That’s not to say we don’t see some very limited issuance tomorrow however, before markets truly shut-down for the holidays.

I have a LOT for all of you today. Up top are the New Issue Re-Cap followed by Tony’s Global Market Re-Cap.  Then the fun starts. Trust me it’s good.

First up are today’s FOMC Talking Points or the things you want and need to know. Then we transition into Janet Yellen’s comments titled “In Yellen’s Own Words” as made in the post decision Q&A.  It is in depth and highlights those key points.  In order to present a bit more granularity I have the FOMC statement strikethrough comparison versus last November’s statement.  It’s the best way to illustrate what new language was added in – highlighted in yellow – and what old language was dropped – strikethroughs in red.  It takes time to put that into this format but it’s well worth it for you.

Always saving the best for last, I have a special piece for you all this evening that speaks to Mischler, it’s SDVBE certification and the wonderful story of our CEO’s daughter, Rachel who accepted an Army ROTC scholarship to UCLA.  It’s an essay on “Leadership” written in her own words and I would appreciate it if all you loyal readers give it particular attention that this evening.  It’s very reassuring folks.

 

Global Market Recap

 

  • FOMC Day – I am shocked the FOMC is already drinking the Trump Kool-Aid.
  • S. Treasuries USTs were hammered after the FOMC was more hawkish than expected.
  • Overseas Bonds – Long end led rallies in JGB’s, Bunds, Gilts & EU semi core.
  • 3mth Libor – Set at highest yield (0.97039%) since May 2009.
  • Stocks – U.S. stocks did not react well to the FOMC.
  • Overseas Stocks – Europe closed in the loss column. Nikkei unchanged & China red.
  • Economic – Weaker U.S. data with higher inflation but the FOMC was the story.
  • Currencies – Big rally for the USD after the FOMC.
  • Commodities – headed south after the FOMC.
  • CDX IG: +0.88 to 68.71
  • CDX HY: +4.81 to 360.60
  • CDX EM: -0.99 to 242.65

*CDX levels are as of 3:30PM ET today.

-Tony Farren

 

FOMC Statement Key Talking Points

 

  • Fed raises rates by 25 bps, repeats gradual policy path plan.
  • Increases Federal Funds rate target range to 0.5%-0.75%.
  • Raises Discount Rate to 1.25% from 1.0%.
  • Repeats “risks to the outlook appear roughly balanced.”
  • FOMC’s policy is supporting “some further strengthening” on goals.
  • Says labor markets continued to strengthen, growth moderate.
  • Market-based inflation compensation gauges are up considerably.
  • Repeats survey-based inflation expectations are little changed.
  • Says spending is rising moderately, investment stayed soft.
  • Maintains its balance sheet reinvestment policy.
  • Says FOMC vote was “unanimous.”
  • Officials see three 2017 rate hikes vs. two in September dots.
  • Officials see three 2018 rate hikes, unchanged vs. September dots.
  • The New York FED expects around $2 trillion in Treasuries are available for reverse repurchase operations.

 

In Yellen’s Own Words:

 

fed-awakens-FOMC-mischler-comment

Janet Yellen

 

  • Yellen: “Rate hike is a reflection of confidence in economic progress.”
  • I do not judge that we are behind the curve.
  • Says the FOMC is recognizing the considerable progress of the economy.
  • Changes in fiscal policy could impact the economic outlook.
  • Not trying to provide advice to the new administration.
  • Fed staff have been in touch with the Trump transition team.
  • Some participants included changes in fiscal policy.
  • Declines to say how Fed policy is impacted by fiscal change.
  • Don’t want to speculate until we know more details.
  • Investors anticipate expansionary fiscal policy.
  • Never said that I favor running a high-pressure economy.
  • Fiscal boost not obviously needed for full employment.
  • FOMC judged the course of the U.S. economy to be strong.
  • Policy remains accommodative to a moderate degree.
  • Economic outlook is highly uncertain.
  • Repeats that Fed policy isn’t on a pre-set course.
  • Shift in the dot plot is a “very modest adjustment.”
  • Shift involves changes by only some Fed participants.
  • Expect economy will warrant only gradual rate increases.
  • Fed funds rate is only modestly below neutral rate.
  • Neutral rate is quite low by historic standards.
  • Fed officials see moderate growth over the next few years.
  • Inflation has moved closer to our longer-term goal.
  • Expect overall inflation to rise to 2% over a couple of years.
  • We remain committed to our 2% inflation objective.
  • We will carefully monitor actual/expected inflation progress.
  • Says broader measures of labor slack have moved lower.
  • Expects job conditions will strengthen somewhat further.
  • Tax policy changes could boost productivity and investment.
  • Repeats that the Fed will shrink its balance sheet over time
  • Will take several years to allow its balance sheet to run off.
  • Don’t want to comment on level of stock prices.
  • Must take the debt-to-GDP ratio into account.
  • Important to reduce the regulatory burden on smaller banks.
  • Broad agreement that we should end “too big to fail.”
  • Don’t roll back progress made on making banks safer.
  • I intend to serve out my four-year term.

 

The FOMC Statement Comparison – December 14th vs. November 2nd

 

On Wednesday, November 2nd, the date of the last FOMC I wrote here in the “QC” that the key takeaway was that the Fed WILL raise rates in December “IF” things remain relatively stable over the next 6 weeks.  The major support for that November statement was:

“Inflation is expected to remain low in the near term, in part because of earlier declines in energy prices, but to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of past declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market strengthens further.”  …………..Remember the Fed’s all-important 2% inflation target! It is pretty clearly laid out for us right there!

Well today, true to the projection, the Fed raised both its upper and lower bound rates 0.25% to 0.75% and 0.50% respectively. The FOMC also noted that it likely sees three rate hikes in 2017 vs. the consensus two.  However, projecting a year’s worth of rate hikes in a year in advance is like forecasting new issue volume for the year. There are simply way too many global event risk factors that can and will influence rate decisions, let alone across the span of one full year.  So, take the three hike statement with a massive grain of salt. We have a new Administration taking over the Beltway on January 20th that certainly leans aggressively on the economic front but the Fed may be playing on the projected success of Trump’s plans to “Make America Great Again.”  Time will tell.

 
Strikethrough Comparison of today’s FOMC Statement

Here it is.  Red crossed out represent deletions and yellow highlights reflect today’s new added language.

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September November indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and growth of that economic activity has picked up from the modest been expanding at a moderate pace seen in the first half of this since mid-year. Job gains have been solid in recent months and the unemployment rate has declined. Household spending has been rising moderately but business fixed investment has remained soft. Inflation has increased somewhat since earlier this year but is still below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have moved up considerably but remain still are low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further. Inflation is expected to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of past declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market strengthens further. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced. The Committee continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments.

 

Against this backdrop In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain raise the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/4 to 1/2 to 3/4 percent. The Committee judges that the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has continued to strengthen but decided, for the time being, to wait for some further evidence of continued progress toward its objectives. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further improvement strengthening in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee’s holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Stanley Fischer; Esther L. George; Loretta J. Mester; Jerome H. Powell; Eric Rosengren; and Daniel K. Tarullo. Voting against the action were: Esther L. George and Loretta J. Mester, each of whom preferred at this meeting to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to ½ to ¾ percent.

[Implementation Note issued November 2 December 14, 2016]

 

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

 

  • The average spread compression from IPTs thru the launch/final pricing of today’s X IG Corporate-only new issues was XX.XX bps.
  • BAML’s IG Master Index tightened 1 bp to +131 vs. +132.  +106 represents the post-Crisis low dating back to July 2007.
  • Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS tightened 1 bp to 1.25 vs. 1.26.  The “LUACOAS” wide since 2012 is +215. The tight is +135.
  • Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread tightened 1 bp to +171 vs. +172.  The +140 reached on July 30th 2014 represents the post-Crisis low.
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $19.3b on Tuesday versus $16.5b on Monday and $20.1b the previous Tuesday.

 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and December  

 

IG Corporate New Issuance This Week
12/12-12/16
vs. Current
WTD – $2.75b
December 2016
Forecasts
vs. Current
MTD – $38.955b
Low-End Avg. $4.74b 2.75% $40.87b 95.31%
Midpoint Avg. $6.00b 45.83% $41.52b 93.82%
High-End Avg. $7.26b 37.88% $42.17b 92.38%
The Low $0.1b/”0” 2,750.00% $30b 129.85%
The High $10b 27.5% $60b 64.92%

 

“At What Point Do Rising Rates Derail the New Issue Market?”

 

fed-funds-rate-history-image-credit-bob-rich-hedgeye-mischler

image courtesy of Bob Rich, Hedgeye Risk Mgt

 

I was asked that very question from a buy side account late last week.  We had a nice weekend conversation about it.  The account in question pointed out that “Disney has issued 10-year notes at 1.85% and CSX at 2.35%…..municipalities are going to cut down on refinancings and while the 10-year is hovering at key support levels, 5s and 2s are at 5-year highs.   Meanwhile we have a President-elect talking about 3-4% GDP.”

 

Here’s my take –

Rates are at historically low levels and after today they will still remain there.  January is always a robust issuance month and January 2017 will be no different. In fact, including SSA issuance we may likely see $150b-160b next month.  Near term rates, propelled by Trump’s surprise victory, got some smaller issuers off the fence who did not want to contend with the crowd and rush to print in January – which again, is historically busy. Long-term, however, there are growing material problems and global event risk factors in the world.  Some are BIG and some are potentially very BAD.  The EU will likely dismantle and have recently returned to their “kick-the-can” mentality. Following today’s Fed rate hike, the FOMC will immediately return to the snail’s pace of interest rate hikes with the present consensus calling for 2 hikes in 2017 which is a defacto return to “lower-for-longer” in a historical context.  There will be many speed bumps in the road ahead but Trump’s first 200 days will implement change quickly. I personally think we continue to see very robust issuance in 2017.  I do not like and am not a fan of taking annual projections. Next week?  Of course!  Next month?  Also a good reason to project. But for an entire year? I mean who really knows?  There are too many events in the world that can dampen issuance.

Assuming the incoming Administration succeeds in implementing change, markets will reflect that.  We live in an inextricably linked global economy in which what happens in the South China Seas, or in MENA, or in Europe, for example and to name a mere few events, has impact here in the U.S.  European investors and high net worth for example, are beginning to disregard exchange rate risk with the dollar that is closing in on parity with the Euro. That European money has consistently displayed quick flight into better rated dollar-denominated credit products and equities.  To say it is an immense amount of money is an understatement.  The more the EU “kicks-the-can” the more it is postponing the inevitable and the quicker we’ll see that money invested here.  That alone will help keep a lid on rates to a degree…….and that’s just one way of the many ways a return to our nation’s historically low interest rate environment will manifest itself in 2017.

 

If a picture is worth a thousand words well, this best captures the 2017 interest rate environment:

rate-hike-mischler-hedgeye

image courtesy of Bob Rich for Hedgeye

image courtesy of Bob Rich for Hedgeye Risk Management

 

Relax!……..I mean really c’mon folks. Pull yourselves together!

 

 

 

Mischler’s Favorite Army Cadet On Leadership

Rachel Chamberlain is a 2016 graduate of Greenwich High School, and was one of two graduates to accept an Army ROTC scholarship. Rachel is currently pursuing a pre-medical neuroscience major at the University of California, Los Angeles. She was awarded a 3.5 year Army ROTC scholarship. Rachel is an Army cadet in the “Bruin Batallion”.

During her first semester as an Army ROTC cadet, Rachel, like all of her battalion buddies, was asked to write about leadership qualities that she observes and experiences throughout her initial cadet training. I thought it a wonderful value-added piece for you.  It’s insightful while dually addressing Mischler’s commitment to bring you yet another innovative piece on diversity and inclusion.  Not only is Mischler the nation’s oldest Service Disabled Veteran broker dealer but it’s CEO and certified SDV, Dean Chamberlain has a very bright daughter carrying on a wonderful family military tradition. So, I proudly present for your reading pleasure Rachel Chamberlain’s essay on leadership.

 

“Leadership” by Rachel Chamberlain

 

Brisk wind screamed in my ears as they were filled with the sound of panting and sneakers thumping on the ground. I wiped sweat from my forehead with the back of my hand, then moved my arms back into the brisk rhythm of my strides. It was the middle of our 2nd perimeter, and I was hurtling down Hilgard Avenue alongside my two battle buddies. “Halfway done- keep it up guys!” yelled one buddy. We all pushed through the run together, encouraging each other whenever one of us started to fall back. The run was draining, and as the final steep uphill came into sight, all energy and drive left my body- my legs came to a crawling jog and my posture slumped as I tried to make it up the hill. Had I been running on my own, I would have continued my steady tread up the slope. However, my cadet peers knew that I could do better; I was letting myself off easy because I was exhausted but I would ultimately benefit more both mentally and physically if I could dig up the energy for a strong finish. “Rachel, you’ve got this”, “You’re faster than this, come on push it! Almost there.”, “We’ve got this.” I absolutely did not want to “push it” at this moment, but their words triggered a burst of energy in me and we picked it up until we reached Drake Stadium.

“Ultimately, leadership is not about glorious crowning acts. It’s about keeping your team focused on a goal and motivated to do their best to achieve it, especially when the stakes are high and the consequences really matter. It is about laying the groundwork for others’ success, and then standing back and letting them shine.” (an excerpt from Chris Hadfield’s, retired Astronaut, ‘An Astronaut’s Guide to Life on Earth’). Instead of using all their energy to sprint independently to the stadium, my buddies stayed back and made sure that I was doing my “best to achieve” my potential; they displayed leadership the moment that they “stood back” and let me “shine”. The workout wasn’t significantly important, yet the temporary display of selfless leadership indicated the beginning of the fulfillment of cadet responsibility.

UCLA-ROTC-Cadet-Chamberlain

Team Mischler’s Favorite Army Cadet Rachel Chamberlain (front row left) with the rest of “Bruin Battalion”

 

 

rotc-cadet-rachel-chamberlain

Mischler’s Very Own ROTC Cadet Rachel “Private Benjamin” Chamberlain (left)

Now those are some UCLA Bruins who make it easy for this USC Trojan to salute.

Fight On!

Below please find my synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary from today’s debt capital markets, including the investment grade corporate bond data drill down as seen from my seat here in Syndicate, Sales and DCM.

Have a great evening!
Ron Quigley, Managing Director and Head of Fixed Income Syndicate

 

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

 

Here’s a review of this week’s five key primary market driver averages for IG Corporates only through Wednesday’s session followed by the averages over the prior four weeks:

KEY IG CORPORATE
NEW ISSUE DRIVERS
MON.
12/12
TUES.
12/13
WED.
12/14
AVERAGES
WEEK 12/05
AVERAGES
WEEK 11/28
AVERAGES
WEEK 11/21
AVERAGES
WEEK 11/14
New Issue Concessions <1.83> bps N/A N/A 4.26 bps 3.53 bps 4.5 bps 3.62 bps
Oversubscription Rates 2.15x N/A N/A 3.68x 3.38x 2.99x 2.78x
Tenors 6 yrs N/A N/A 9.21 yrs 10.84 yrs 12.14 yrs 11.28 yrs
Tranche Sizes $688mm N/A N/A $760mm $711mm $929mm $1,039mm
Avg. Spd. Compression
IPTs to Launch
<15.75> bps N/A N/A <22.24> bps <17.60> bps <16.07> bps <17.69> bps

 

Indexes and New Issue Volume

 

Index Open Current Change
LUACOAS 1.25 1.25 0
IG27 67.827 69.43 1.603
HV27 136.56 139.86 3.30
VIX 12.72 13.19 0.47
S&P 2,271 2,253 <18>
DOW 19,911 19,792 <119>
 

USD

 

IG Corporates

 

USD

 

Total IG (+SSA)

DAY: $0.00 bn DAY: $0.00 bn
WTD: $2.75 bn WTD: $2.75 bn
MTD: $38.955 bn MTD: $44.905 bn
YTD: $1,283.717 bn YTD: $1,623.651 bn

 

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending December 7th     

     

  • For the week ended December 7th, Lipper U.S. Fund Flows reported an inflow of $2.583b into Corporate Investment Grade Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $41.047b) and a net inflow of $2.034bm into High Yield Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $6.973b).
  • Over the same period, Lipper reported a net inflow of $1.761b into Loan Participation Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $2.322b).
  • Emerging Market debt funds reported a net outflow of $1.005b (2016 YTD inflow of $4.738b).

 

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

The 10-day IG spread performance vs. the T10 across the ratings spectrum and how IG compared versus high yield:

Spreads across the four IG asset classes are an average 23.00 bps wider versus their post-Crisis lows!

 

ASSET CLASS 12/13 12/12 12/09 12/08 12/07 12/06 12/05 12/02 12/01 11/30 1-Day Change 10-Day Trend PC
low
IG Avg. 131 132 133 133 134 134 135 135 135 136 <1> <5> 106
“AAA” 74 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 <1> <1> 50
“AA” 81 82 81 82 82 82 82 83 83 84 <1> <3> 63
“A” 105 106 106 106 106 107 107 107 107 108 <1> <3> 81
“BBB” 168 170 170 171 172 172 173 174 174 175 <2> <7> 142
IG vs. HY 289 293 295 305 308 316 323 329 327 331 <4> <42> 228

IG Credit Spreads by Industry

…….and a snapshot of the major investment grade sector credit spreads for the past ten sessions:

Spreads across the major industry sectors are an average 28.95 bps wider versus their post-Crisis lows!

                                    

INDUSTRY 12/13 12/12 12/09 12/08 12/07 12/06 12/05 12/02 12/01 11/30 1-Day Change 10-Day Trend PC
low
Automotive 121 121 121 121 121 121 121 122 122 123 0 <2> 67
Banking 122 124 123 124 124 125 125 126 125 125 <2> <3> 98
Basic Industry 169 170 170 172 173 174 175 176 175 177 <1> <8> 143
Cap Goods 99 99 99 99 100 100 100 101 101 102 0 <3> 84
Cons. Prod. 107 108 109 109 109 109 109 110 109 110 <1> <3> 85
Energy 166 168 170 172 173 174 175 177 177 180 <2> <14> 133
Financials 152 153 152 153 154 154 155 155 154 155 <1> <3> 97
Healthcare 117 117 117 117 117 117 118 118 118 119 0 <2> 83
Industrials 133 134 135 135 136 136 137 137 137 139 <1> <6> 109
Insurance 144 145 145 146 146 146 146 147 146 147 <1> <3> 120
Leisure 134 135 135 135 134 134 135 135 135 135 <1> <1> 115
Media 158 159 157 158 158 159 159 160 159 161 <1> <3> 113
Real Estate 143 144 143 143 143 143 144 144 144 144 <1> <1> 112
Retail 112 114 114 115 115 116 116 116 116 117 <2> <5> 92
Services 125 127 127 127 127 128 128 128 128 128 <2> <3> 120
Technology 107 108 108 109 109 110 110 110 110 112 <1> <5> 76
Telecom 161 163 163 163 164 165 165 166 165 166 <2> <5> 122
Transportation 130 131 131 132 133 135 135 135 135 136 <1> <6> 109
Utility 132 133 133 134 135 135 135 136 135 135 <1> <3> 104

 

Economic Data Releases

 

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA PERIOD SURVEYED ESTIMATES ACTUAL NUMBER PRIOR NUMBER PRIOR REVISED
MBA Mortgage Applications Dec. 9 —- <0.4%> <0.7%> —-
Retail Sales Advance MoM November 0.3% 0.1% 0.8% 0.6%
Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM November 0.4% 0.2% 0.8% 0.6%
Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM and Gas November 0.4% 0.2% 0.6% 0.5%
Retail Sales Control Group November 0.3% 0.1% 0.8% 0.6%
PPI Final Demand MoM November 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% —-
PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM November 0.2% 0.4% <0.2%> —-
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM November 0.2% 0.2% <0.1%> —-
PPI Final Demand YoY November 0.9% 1.3% 0.8% —-
PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY November 1.3% 1.6% 1.2% —-
PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade NSA YoY November 1.7% 1.8% 1.6% —-
Industrial Production MoM November <0.3%> <0.4%> 0.0% 0.1%
Manufacturing (SIC) Production November <0.2%> <0.1%> 0.2% 0.3%
Capacity Utilization November 75.1% 75.0% 75.3% 75.4%
                   Business Inventories                   October <0.1%> <0.2%> 0.1% 0.0%
FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) Dec. 14 0.75% 0.75% 0.50% —-
FOMC Decision (Lower Bound) Dec. 14 0.50% 0.50% 0.25% —-

 

Rates Trading Lab

 

If you were concerned that the markets were too complacent about the Fed, today proved you right. The Eurodollar curve steepened sharply (edh7/edh8 was 12bp steeper) reflecting the steeper projected path of removal of policy accommodation. I must admit that Yellen’s history of dovishness lulled me as well. But when she said “I believe my predecessor and I called for fiscal stimulus when the unemployment rate was substantially higher than it is now,” the market took it as a sign that the times, they are a changin’. That was pretty hawkish as it implies (to me) that fiscal policy, if/when it is enacted could provide the excess economic stimulus that necessitates a more aggressive Fed. More than a few people out there were looking/hoping for a bounce, but the dots and Yellen got them. Looking forward, I would be looking to put some money to work in the 3yr sector. However, though the 2017 voters (Evans, Kashkari, Harker, Kaplan) are less hawkish than the 2016 group, Yellen still calls the shots and recall that many established doves have crossed into the hawkish camp in the past year. As I say every time I advocate buying the market, it is in the context of a bond bear market. As of today, there is less doubt about that, at least.
-Jim Levenson

 

UST Resistance/Support Table

 

CT3 CT5 CT7 CT10 CT30
RESISTANCE LEVEL 99-182 99-01 98-29+ 95-28+ 96-05
RESISTANCE LEVEL 99-16+ 98-29 98-25+ 95-22 95-21
RESISTANCE LEVEL 99-15 98-26 98-22 95-16 95-00
         
SUPPORT LEVEL 99-12 98-19 98-10 94-28 93-16
SUPPORT LEVEL 99-10 98-14+ 98-05+ 94-18+ 92-27
SUPPORT LEVEL 99-08 98-11 98-00 94-10 92-08

 

Tomorrow’s Calendar

 

  • China Data: Nothing Scheduled
  • Japan Data: Japan Foreign Bond Buying, Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg, Machine Tool Orders
  • Australia: Consumer Inflation Expectation, Employment, RBA FX Transactions
  • EU Data: EU-Markit Eurozone Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMI GE- Markit Manufacturing/Services/Composite U.K. Retail Sales
  • S. Data: Current Account Balance, Empire Manufacturing, CPI, Real Avg Weekly Earnings, Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI, NAHB Housing Market Index, Total Net TIC Flows
  • Supply: Japan 20yr / Ireland bills / Spain 2021 & 2026 / Romania 2019 / Poland auctions TBD
  • Events: Bank of England Bank Rate
  • Speeches: Nothing Scheduled

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What’s Next: FOMC Rate Decision+ 18 Economic Data Releases
December 2016      Debt Market Commentary   

Quigley’s Corner 12.13.16 -Baked In FOMC Rate Decision+ 18 Major Economic Releases

 

Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap – FOMC Tomorrow and then We’re Back to Zero for the 2017 IG Primary Markets

Global Market Recap

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and December  

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

Indexes and New Issue Volume

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending December 7th     

IG Credit Spreads by Rating & Industry

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

Tomorrow’s Calendar

No new issues priced today ahead of tomorrow’s all-important FOMC rate decision in which the Fed will likely announce a rate hike of 0.25%. We have no less than 18 major economic data releases tomorrow which should help us read the tea leaves for table-setting come January. The first month of each year is historically a prolific one. January 2017 will be no different. We could see $130-140b price…….and likely more when factoring in SSA issuance! So welcome and enjoy the holiday reprieve while we have it because we’ll be starting all over again and “back to zero” before you can blink in a couple of weeks.

 

Global Market Recap

 

  • S. Treasuries – Closed mixed & flatter. The 30yr auction was well received.
  • Overseas Bonds – Bonds in Europe were very well big. JGB’s closed mixed.
  • 3mth Libor – Set at the highest yield (0.96344%) since May 2009.
  • Stocks – S&P, Dow and NASDAQ traded at all-time times.
  • Overseas Stocks – Europe rallied (banks) & Asia closed with gains.
  • Economic – U.S. small business optimism at a 2-year high.
  • Overseas Economic – Better data in China & Europe. Germany & U.K. CPI remained low.
  • Currencies – USD stabilized after a poor session yesterday.
  • Commodities – Crude oil unchanged. Gold, copper & silver down. CRB small gain.
  • CDX IG: -0.68 to 67.41
  • CDX HY: -4.59 to 353.11
  • CDX EM: -1.92 to 243.65

*CDX levels are as of 3:30PM ET today.

-Tony Farren

 

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

 

  • BAML’s IG Master Index tightened 1 bp to +132 vs. +133.  +106 represents the post-Crisis low dating back to July 2007.
  • Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS tightened 1 bp to 1.26 vs. 1.27.  The “LUACOAS” wide since 2012 is +215. The tight is +135.
  • Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread tightened 1 bp to +172 vs. +173.  The +140 reached on July 30th 2014 represents the post-Crisis low.
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $16.5b on Monday versus $15.7b on Friday and $14.0b the previous Monday.

 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and December  

 

IG Corporate New Issuance This Week
12/12-12/16
vs. Current
WTD – $2.75b
December 2016
Forecasts
vs. Current
MTD – $38.955b
Low-End Avg. $4.74b 2.75% $40.87b 95.31%
Midpoint Avg. $6.00b 45.83% $41.52b 93.82%
High-End Avg. $7.26b 37.88% $42.17b 92.38%
The Low $0.1b/”0” 2,750.00% $30b 129.85%
The High $10b 27.5% $60b 64.92%

 

Below please find my synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary from today’s debt capital markets, including the investment grade corporate bond data drill down as seen from my seat here in Syndicate, Sales and DCM.

Have a great evening!
Ron Quigley, Managing Director and Head of Fixed Income Syndicate

 

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

 

Here’s a review of this week’s five key primary market driver averages for IG Corporates only through Monday’s session followed by the averages over the prior four weeks:

KEY IG CORPORATE
NEW ISSUE DRIVERS
MON.
12/12
AVERAGES
WEEK 12/05
AVERAGES
WEEK 11/28
AVERAGES
WEEK 11/21
AVERAGES
WEEK 11/14
New Issue Concessions <1.83> bps 4.26 bps 3.53 bps 4.5 bps 3.62 bps
Oversubscription Rates 2.15x 3.68x 3.38x 2.99x 2.78x
Tenors 6 yrs 9.21 yrs 10.84 yrs 12.14 yrs 11.28 yrs
Tranche Sizes $688mm $760mm $711mm $929mm $1,039mm
Avg. Spd. Compression
IPTs to Launch
<15.75> bps <22.24> bps <17.60> bps <16.07> bps <17.69> bps

 

Indexes and New Issue Volume

 

Index Open Current Change  
LUACOAS 1.26 1.26 0
IG27 68.095 67.827 <0.268>
HV27 136.005 135.56 <0.445>
VIX 12.64 12.72 0.08  
S&P 2,256 2,271 15
DOW 19,796 19,911 115  
 

USD

 

IG Corporates

 

USD

 

Total IG (+SSA)

DAY: $0.00 bn DAY: $0.00 bn
WTD: $2.75 bn WTD: $2.75 bn
MTD: $38.955 bn MTD: $44.905 bn
YTD: $1,283.717 bn YTD: $1,623.651 bn

 

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending December 7th     

     

  • For the week ended December 7th, Lipper U.S. Fund Flows reported an inflow of $2.583b into Corporate Investment Grade Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $41.047b) and a net inflow of $2.034bm into High Yield Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $6.973b).

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