Browsing articles tagged with "New Issue Pipeline Archives - Mischler Financial Group"
European Corporate Debt Issuance Mkt: Fill ‘Yer Boots Mode
January 2017      Debt Market Commentary   

Quigley’s Corner 01.24.17 Eye on European Corporate Debt Issuance: Fill Yer Boots

“..Today’s all-in US Investment Grade day total issuance makes January issuance $182.433b; the 3rd busiest month on record..”

 

Investment Grade Corporate Debt New Issue Re-Cap – January 2017 Now 3rd Highest Volume Month on Record!
Global Market Recap

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and January 

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

New Issues Priced

Indexes and New Issue Volume

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending January 18th     

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

IG Credit Spreads by Industry

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

Tomorrow’s Calendar

It was perhaps a rather subdued IG primary market today in the U.S. but we did wind up featuring 3 IG Corporate issuers that priced 8 tranches between them totaling $4.65.  SSA also assisted in boosting the volume totals as 2 issuers priced 2 tranches amounting to $3.25b.  Today’s all-in IG day total is now $182.433b making it as the 3rd busiest month on record.

However, allow me to tell you about London’s European issuance where the primary market remains “hot.”  What’s that mean?  How about this – today, according to friend, former BNP Paribas colleague and Bloomberg Editorial Primary Market Strategist, Paul Cohen, “Europe remains in a “fill yer boots” mode across the pond.  Notably, of the 151 YTD syndicated transactions, 100 of them (66%) have trended tighter vs. launch/final pricing.  Despite that Europe was expecting a busy week this week they certainly did not anticipate the €32b priced in the in first two sessions.  It’s staggering! Today in particular saw 10 issuers price 11 tranches totaling €27.68b making it the third largest issuance day in Europe in 3 years according to his Bloomberg records. Today’s U.K. 40-year gilt transaction amassed a record £23b in investor order interest while total demand for 3 sovereign bond new issues eclipsed €80b equivalent.  Paul said the reason is that “the latest rise in underlying rates, fueled by improving macro sentiment, appears to be buoying risk appetite.” It sure does.

 

Global Market Recap

 

  • U.S. Treasuries – Bad day for USTs & bonds in Europe. JGB’s closed mixed. Supply a factor.
  • Stocks – Good day for U.S. stocks with record highs for the S&P and NASDAQ.
  • Overseas Stocks – Europe had a good day (not Ireland), Japan red and China mixed.
  • Economic – Markit manufacturing improved. Low inventory holding back existing home sales.
  • Overseas Economic – Solid data in Japan & Europe.
  • Currencies – USD outperformed all of the Big 5. Yesterday was the opposite.
  • Commodities – Big day for copper. Crude oil higher & gold lower.
  • CDX IG: -1.32 to 65.12
  • CDX HY: -5.52 to 346.69
  • CDX EM: -0.81 to 236.23

*CDX levels are as of 3:30PM ET today.

-Tony Farren

 

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

 

  • Mischler Financial served as a passive underwriter on Morgan Stanley’s $1b (40mm share) 5.85% PerpNC10 fixed-to-floating rate non-cumulative $25 par preferred Series “K” today.  Thank you to MS Preferred Syndicate’s Michael “Captain Morgan” Borut for selecting Mischler as an underwriter from among the many diversity broker-dealers to choose from. It is always appreciated Mike! The transaction rated (Ba1/BB/BB+) started with IPT’s in the 6.125% “area” before tightening 25 bps to revised 5.875% “area” guidance and 2.5 bps tighter into the 5.85% launch for an impressive <27.5> of spread compression throughout price evolution.
    The average spread compression from IPTs thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 8 IG Corporate-only new issues was 18.12 bps.
  • BAML’s IG Master Index was unchanged at +128.  +106 represents the post-Crisis low dating back to July 2007.
  • Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS was unchanged at +122.  The “LUACOAS” wide since 2012 is +215. The tight is +122.
  • Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread was unchanged at +165.  The +140 reached on July 30th 2014 represents the post-Crisis low.
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $17.1b on Monday versus $15.2b on Friday.
  • The 10-DMA stands at $18.7b.

 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and January 

 

IG Corporate New Issuance This Week
1/23-1/27
vs. Current
WTD – $13.70b
January 2017
Forecasts
vs. Current
MTD – $130.433b
Low-End Avg. $19.09b 71.77% $107.87b 120.92%
Midpoint Avg. $20.46b 66.96% $108.41b 120.31%
High-End Avg. $21.83b 62.76% $108.96b 119.71%
The Low $15b 91.33% $80b 163.04%
The High $26b 52.69% $145b 89.95%

 

Below please find my synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary from today’s debt capital markets, including the investment grade corporate bond data drill down as seen from my seat here in Syndicate, Sales and DCM

 

Have a great evening!

Ron Quigley, Managing Director & Head of Fixed Income Syndicate

 

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

 

Here’s a review of this week’s five key primary market driver averages for IG Corporates only through Monday’s session followed by the averages over the prior six weeks:

KEY IG CORPORATE
NEW ISSUE DRIVERS
MON.
1/23
AVERAGES
WEEK 1/16
AVERAGES
WEEK 1/09
AVERAGES
WEEK 1/02
AVERAGES
WEEK 12/26
AVERAGES
WEEK 12/19
AVERAGES
WEEK 12/12
New Issue Concessions 0.94 bps 3.42 bps 0.85 bps 2.25 bps N/A N/A <0.50> bps
Oversubscription Rates 2.60x 2.40x 2.85x 2.45x N/A N/A 2.41x
Tenors 8.54 yrs 12 yrs 7.83 yrs 6.52 yrs N/A N/A 10.67 yrs
Tranche Sizes $1,006mm $1,123mm $927mm $859mm N/A N/A $708mm
Avg. Spd. Compression
IPTs to Launch
<15.61> yrs <14.69> bps <18.77> bps <15.27> bps N/A N/A <17.17> bps

 

New Issues Priced

Today’s recap of visitors to our IG dollar Corporate and SSA DCM:

For ratings I use the better two of Moody’s, S&P or Fitch.

 

IG          

Issuer Ratings Coupon Maturity Size IPTs GUIDANCE LAUNCH PRICED LEADS
IBM Aa3/AA- FRN 1/27/2020 500 3mL+equib 3mL+equiv 3mL+23 3mL+23 BNPP/CS/HSBC/MIZ/RBC
IBM Aa3/AA- 1.90% 1/27/2020 750 +60a +45-50 +45 +45 BNPP/CS/HSBC/MIZ/RBC
IBM Aa3/AA- 2.50% 1/27/2022 1,000 +75a +60-65 +60 +60 BNPP/CS/HSBC/MIZ/RBC
IBM Aa3/AA- 3.30% 1/27/2027 500 +100a +90-95 +90 +90 BNPP/CS/HSBC/MIZ/RBC
Jackson Nat’l. Life Glbl. Fdg. AA/AA 2.20% 1/30/2020 400 +85a +75 the # +75 +75 BARC/CS/DB/MS
Jackson Nat’l. Life Glbl. Fdg. AA/AA 3.25% 1/30/2024 500 +110a +100 the # +100 +100 BARC/CS/DB/MS
Tech Data Corporation Baa3/BBB- 3.70% 2/15/2022 500 +low 200s
+212.5a
+185a (+/-5) +180 +180 BAML/CITI/JPM
Tech Data Corporation Baa3/BBB- 4.95% 2/15/2027 500 +high 200s +287.5a +255a (+/-5) +250 +250 BAML/CITI/JPM

 

SSA

Issuer Ratings Coupon Maturity Size IPTs GUIDANCE LAUNCH PRICED LEADS
Nordic Investment Bank Aaa/AAA 2.125% 2/01/2022 1,250 MS +19a MS +18a MS +17 +23.5 CITI/JPM/RBC/TD
Province of Quebec Aa2/AA- 2.375% 1/31/2022 2,000 MS +46a MS +44a MS +43 +49.15 BAML/BMO/DB/SCOT

 

Indexes and New Issue Volume

Please note that below levels are as of 3:45pm ET.

 

Index Open Current Change  
IG27 66.447 65.188 <1.259>
HV27 140.44 138.89 <1.55>
VIX 11.77 11.28 <0.49>  
S&P 2,265 2,282 17
DOW 19,800 19,919 119  
 

USD

 

IG Corporates

 

USD

 

Total (IG + SSA)

DAY: $4.65 bn DAY: $7.90 bn
WTD: $13.70 bn WTD: $16.95 bn
MTD: $130.433 bn MTD: $182.433 bn
YTD: $130.433 bn YTD: $182.433 bn

 

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending January 18th     

     

  • For the week ended January 18th, Lipper U.S. Fund Flows reported an inflow of $1.893b into Corporate Investment Grade Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $8.108b) and a net outflow of $887.116m from High Yield Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $410.884m).
  • Over the same period, Lipper reported a net inflow of $548.36m into Loan Participation Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $2.745b).
  • Emerging Market debt funds reported a net inflow of $77.439m (2016 YTD inflow of $314.867m).

 

IG Credit Spreads by Rating (more…)

Pre-Presidential Inauguration: Big Banks Float Boatload of Debt Deals
January 2017      Debt Market Commentary   

Quigley’s Corner 01.17.17 – Big Banks Issue Boatloads of Debt; Investor Appetite for IG Debt is Resilient 

 

Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap – “Banking” on Change – 3 Big FIGs Unleash 3 Deals, 9 Tranches and $18.75b on Heels of Strong Q4 ’16 Earnings.

Global Market Recap

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for January 

Morgan Stanley Inc. $3b 10 year Deal Dashboard

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

New Issues Priced

Indexes and New Issue Volume

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending January 11th     

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

Tomorrow’s Calendar

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

IG Credit Spreads by Industry

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline

 

As Bloomberg Gladfy columnist Lisa Abramowicz pointed out in her Jan 6 story “The Credit Boom Just Won’t Die”, –which included your’s truly cited for providing the most accurate forecast re debt issuance, three more banks joined the pre-Presidential Inauguration day fray to satisfy investors’ insatiable appetite for Investment Grade debt and floated $20.75bil in fresh paper, breaking the weekly fixed income syndicate forecast in a single day.. 

6 IG Corporate issuers announced a total of 13 tranches between them totaling $20.75b.  But, make no mistake about it, the day belonged to the Big FIGs Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo who between them accounted for  9 of the tranches and just over 90% of the day’s volume.  We are now one day into the holiday-shortened week, yet we’ve already priced 90% of this week’s syndicate midpoint average estimate calling for $23.07b.  Tomorrow looks to be loaded with SSA issuers who were absent today yet who began taken IOIs on tomorrow’s deals.  Slated for Tuesday are IBRD, OKB, KBN, FMS and CPPIB Capital.  So, heavy IG all-in volume is expected therein.

Mischler Financial served as a “passive” Co-Manager on today’s 10-year fixed rate tranche of Morgan Stanley’s three-part 5NC4, 10s and 30s making it today’s Deal-of-the-Day for the nation’s oldest Service Disabled Veteran broker-dealer.  Let’s run down Global, Primary and Secondary Market Recaps and then I’ll get to the MS 3-part drill-down.

 

Global Market Recap

 

  • U.S. Treasuries – Strong session for USTs after Trump said the USD is too strong.
  • Overseas Bonds – JGB’s closed with gains. Europe had more green than red.
  • 3mth Libor – Set at its highest yield since May 2009 (1.02483%).
  • Stocks – The NASDAQ was leading stocks south at 3:30pm.
  • Overseas Stocks – Europe more red than green. Nikkei red. China/HS closed higher.
  • Economic – Light calendar in the U.S. Japan & Europe were better. U.K. CPI higher.
  • Currencies – Trump said the USD was too strong & now it is not as strong.
  • Commodities – Crude oil small gain. Gold & silver were strong. Copper hit hard.
  • CDX IG: +0.97 to 66.79
  • CDX HY: +3.11 to 354.22
  • CDX EM: -1.15 to 233.23

*CDX levels are as of 3:30PM ET today.

-Tony Farren

 

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

 

  • Regency Centers LP upsized today’s two-part 10s/30s Senior Notes new issue to $650mm from $600mm at the launch and at the tightest side of guidance.
  • The average spread compression from IPTs thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 13 IG Corporate-only new issues was <14.04> bps.
  • BAML’s IG Master Index tightened 1 bp to +128 vs. +129.  +106 represents the post-Crisis low dating back to July 2007.
  • Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS was unchanged at +122.  The “LUACOAS” wide since 2012 is +215. The tight is +122.
  • Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread was unchanged at +166.  The +140 reached on July 30th 2014 represents the post-Crisis low.
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $13.7b on Friday versus $19.4b on Thursday and $18.1b the previous Friday.

 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for January 

 

IG Corporate New Issuance This Week
1/16-1/20
vs. Current
WTD – $20.75b
January 2017
Forecasts
vs. Current
MTD – $108.283b
Low-End Avg. $22.20b 93.47% $107.87b 100.38%
Midpoint Avg. $23.07b 89.94% $108.41b 99.88%
High-End Avg. $23.93b 86.71% $108.96b 99.38%
The Low $15b 138.33% $80b 135.35%
The High $36b 57.64 $145b 74.68%

 

Morgan Stanley Inc. $3b 10 year Deal Dashboard

 

This morning prior to the market open, Morgan Stanley posted its strongest quarterly earnings since the Financial Crisis and outperformed Q4 2015 by $950 million thanks to a bond trading revival that boosted MS’s bottom line.  Q4 ’16 Bond trading revenues surged $1.47b or 167% beating analyst’s estimates by $500mm.  That is the single largest amount among six-pack banks that have reported with Citigroup and Goldman Sachs posting tomorrow. Much the recent quarter activity is attributable to market expectations that Donald Trump and his cabinet will boost economic growth, revamp more favorable corporate tax policies and create more of a rising rate environment than the snail’s pace we’ve gotten used to.  Morgan Stanley’s Q4 net income rose 83% to $1.67b or $0.81 EPS vs. $908mm and $0.39 in Q4 2015.

Mischler served as a “passive” 1.00% Co-Manager on Morgan Stanley’s $3b 10-year tranche of their $7b three-part 5NC4, 10s and 30s.

For 10yr fair value I looked at the outstanding MS 2.625% due 11/17/2021 that was T+134 (G+136) pre-announcement landing NIC as 7 bps against today’s final +143 new 10yr pricing.

The new 5yr that priced at 3mL +118 looked to the outstanding MS 2.625 due 11/17/2021 that was seen T+107 bid pre-announcement or G+109.5 pegging NIC on today’s new 5yr as 8.5 bps to the 5yr bullet.

The 30yr comped best to the MS 4.30% due 1/27/2045 T+133 nailing today’s new 30 yr NIC as 15 bps versus today’s final T+148 pricing.

 

As for Morgan’s inclusive focus on veterans and veteran initiatives and Mischler’s designation to play a role in this transaction, Morgan Stanley Chairman and Chief Executive Officer James Gorman says, “Morgan Stanley thanks you for your service.  The military’s emphasis on the mission and the team, leadership accountability and continuous improvement aligns well with the culture of our Firm.”

To Mr. Gorman: It’s an honor to serve on your transaction. We always stand at the ready for you and Team Morgan Stanley.

 

 

MS Issue IPTs GUIDANCE LAUNCH PRICED Spread
Compression
NICs
(bps)
Trading at
the Break
+/-
(bps)
5yr 3mL+125a 3mL+120
(+/-2)
3mL+118 3mL+118 <7> bps 8.5 117/116 <1>
10yr FXD +155a +145a (+/-2) +143 +143 <12> bps 7 bps 143/141 0/flat
30yr +160a +150a (+/-2) +148 +148 <12> bps 15 bps 141/139 <7>

 

………and here’s a look at final book sizes and oversubscription rates:

 

MS  Issue Tranche Size Final Book
Size
Bid-to-Cover
Rate
5yr $1.75b $2.75b 1.57x
10yr FXD $3b $5.5b 1.83x
30yr $2.25b $5.1b 2.27x

 

Final Pricing – Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS)
MS $1.75b 3mL+118 due 1/20/2022 5NC4 FRN at $100.00

MS $3b 3.625% 10yr FXD due 1/20/2027 @ $98.999 to yield 3.746% or T+143  MW+25

MS $2.25b 4.375% 30yr FXD due 1/20/2047 @ $99.322 to yield 4.416% or T+148  MW+25

 

Below please find my synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary from today’s debt capital markets, including the investment grade corporate bond data drill down as seen from my seat here in Syndicate, Sales and DCM.

Have a great evening!

Ron Quigley, Managing Director & Head of Fixed Income Syndicate

 

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

 

KEY IG CORPORATE
NEW ISSUE DRIVERS
MON.
1/09
TUES.
1/10
WED.
1/11
TH.
1/12
FRI.
1/13
AVERAGES
WEEK 1/09
AVERAGES
WEEK 1/02
AVERAGES
WEEK 12/26
AVERAGES
WEEK 12/19
AVERAGES
WEEK 12/12
AVERAGES
WEEK 12/05
New Issue Concessions 0.57 bps 0.83 bps 0.67 bps 6.50 bps N/A 0.85 bps 2.25 bps N/A N/A <0.50> bps 4.26 bps
Oversubscription Rates 3.02x 2.85x 2.70x 2.70x N/A 2.85x 2.45x N/A N/A 2.41x 3.68x
Tenors 9.09 years 5.40 yrs 8 yrs 5.67 yrs N/A 7.83 yrs 6.52 yrs N/A N/A 10.67 yrs 9.21 yrs
Tranche Sizes $613mm $433mm $1,577mm $667mm N/A $927mm $859mm N/A N/A $708mm $760mm
Avg. Spd. Compression
IPTs to Launch
<15.32> bps <19.83> bps <21.46> bps <23.75> bps N/A <18.77> bps <15.27> bps N/A N/A <17.17> bps <22.24> bps

…..and here’s another look at last week’s day-by-day re-cap of key primary market driver averages for IG Corporates only followed by the prior six week’s averages:

 

New Issues Priced

Today’s recap of visitors to our IG dollar Corporate and SSA DCM:

For ratings I use the better two of Moody’s, S&P or Fitch.

 *Please note that Baptist Health South Florida Obligated Group priced on Monday, January 9th but was posted today.  It is italicized in the below table for informational purposes only but is not included in today’s IG Corporate day total.  The New Issue Volume tables below have been updated to reflect its inclusion.  Thanks! -RQ

IG          

Issuer Ratings Coupon Maturity Size IPTs GUIDANCE LAUNCH PRICED LEADS
Bank of America Baa1/A FRN 1/20/2023
6NC5
750 3mL+equiv 3mL+116 the # 3mL+116 3mL+116 BAC-sole
Bank of America Baa1/A 3.124% 1/20/2023
6NC5
1,500 +140 +130 the # +130 +130 BAC-sole
Bank of America Baa1/A 3.824% 1/20/2028
11NC10
2,500 +165a +150a (+/-2) +150 +150 BAC-sole
Bank of America Baa1/A 4.443% 1/20/2048
31NC30
2,000 +165a +150a (+/-2) +150 +150 BAC-sole
Guardian Life Ins. Co. of America AA-/AA- 4.85% 1/24/2077 350 +low 200s
+200-225/+212.5a
+200a (+/-5) +195 +195 CS/DB/JPM/MS
Kroger Co. Baa1/BBB 4.45% 2/01/2047 1,000 +160a +150 the # +150 +150 BAML/RBC/USB(a) + 3 (p)
Morgan Stanley A3/A FRN 1/20/2022
5NC4
1,750 3mL+125a 3mL+120 (+/-2) 3mL+118 3mL+118 MS-sole
Morgan Stanley A3/A 3.625% 1/20/2027 3,000 +155a +145a (+/-2) +143 +143 MS-sole
Morgan Stanley A3/A 4.375% 1/20/2047 2,250 +160a +150a (+/-2) +148 +148 MS-sole
Regency Centers LP Baa1/BBB+ 3.60% 2/01/2027 350 +150a +135a (+/-5) +130 +130 BAML/JPM/USB/WFS
Regency Centers LP Baa1/BBB+ 4.40% 2/01/2047 300 +175a +155a (+/-5) +150 +150 BAML/JPM/USB/WFS
Wells Fargo & Co. A2/AA- FRN 1/24/2023
6NC5
1,250 3mL+equiv (+125a) 3mL+111 the # 3mL+111 3mL+111 WFS-sole
Wells Fargo & Co. A2/AA- 3.069% 1/24/2023
6NC5
3,750 +140a +125 the # +125 +125 WFS-sole

 

 Indexes and New Issue Volume

*Denotes 52-week low.

Index Open Current Change
IG27 65.82 66.428 0.608
HV27 140.34 139.90 <0.44>
VIX *11.23 11.86 0.63
S&P 2,274 2,267 <7>
DOW 19,885 19,826 <59>
 

USD

 

IG Corporates

 

USD

 

Total IG (+SSA)

DAY: $20.75 bn DAY: 20.75 bn
WTD: $20.75 bn WTD: 20.75 bn
MTD: $108.283 bn MTD: $137.033 bn
YTD: $108.283 bn YTD: $137.033 bn

 

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending January 11th     

     

  • For the week ended January 11th, Lipper U.S. Fund Flows reported an inflow of $4.029b into Corporate Investment Grade Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $6.215b) and a net inflow of $563.51m into High Yield Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $1.298b).
  • Over the same period, Lipper reported a net inflow of $1.332b into Loan Participation Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $2.197b).
  • Emerging Market debt funds reported a net inflow of $172.277m (2016 YTD inflow of $237.428m).

 

Economic Data Releases

 

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA PERIOD SURVEYED ESTIMATES ACTUAL NUMBER PRIOR NUMBER PRIOR REVISED
Empire Manufacturing January 8.5 6.5 9.0 7.6

 

Rates Trading Lab

 

The week is off to an interesting start. Today we had some unwinding of the Trump trade with Treasuries rallying, stocks selling off and the USD getting whacked. The market is starting to realize Trump plans will have many hurdles to get over before they become a reality. At the 3pm close, benchmark Treasuries were better bid by 3.7 bps (2yr: 1.156%) to 5.8 bps (5yr: 1.826%).

 

Today’s highlights were:

 

  • President-Elect Trump told the WSJ the USD was already too strong and the USD paid a severe price for the comment. The USD was hit hard by all of the Big 5.
  • This morning, U.K. PM Theresa May said she will not pursue membership in the EU single market system. The Pound which had been under heavy pressure last week rallied on the May & Trump comments. It was the best day the Pound has had vs. the USD since 2008.
  • NY Fed President Dudley (voter/very dovish) was very dovish this morning. Dudley said the Fed is unlikely to snuff out the U.S. economic expansion and inflation is not a problem.
  • Conversely, Fed Gov. Brainard (dove) was hawkish in her comments today. Brainard was the 3rd Fed member in the New Year (2017) to mention the Fed balance sheet. Last Thursday St. Louis Fed Pres. Bullard (non-voter) and Dallas Fed Pres. Kaplan (voter) also mentioned the balance sheet. Something to keep your eye on.

 

UST Resistance/Support Table

 

CT3 CT5 CT7 CT10 CT30
RESISTANCE LEVEL 100-272 101-106 101-16 98-04+ 100-16
RESISTANCE LEVEL 99-31+ 101-046 101-07 97-24+ 99-25
RESISTANCE LEVEL 99-30 100-30 100-31 97-13+ 99-16
         
SUPPORT LEVEL 99-27 100-226 100-20 96-30 98-13
SUPPORT LEVEL 99-252 100-196 100-10 96-17 97-26
SUPPORT LEVEL 99-24 100-142 100-03 96-09 97-06

 

Tomorrow’s Calendar

 

  • China Data: Nothing Scheduled
  • Japan Data: Nothing Scheduled
  • Australia: Westpac Consumer Confidence
  • EU Data: German Dec CPI, EU Dec CPI, U.K. Dec Unem/Nov Earns
  • U.S. Data: MBA, Dec CPI, Dec IP/CapU, Jan NAHB, Nov TIC
  • Supply: ECB 7d$, BoC
  • Events: Nouy, Yellen, Kashkari, Kaplan, Olsen

(more…)

Corporate Bond New Issuance Elasticity: Get It While Its Hot
January 2017      Debt Market Commentary   

Quigley’s Corner 01.06.17 Weekend Edition: Investment Grade Corpoate Bond New Issuance & Spread Elasticity: Get It While It’s Hot

 

Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap 

My Thoughts re: Next Week’s Issuance

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for January 

The Best and the Brightest” – Investment Grade New Issuance Forecasts Next Week 

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

This Week’s IG New Issues and Where They’re Trading

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending January 4th     

IG Credit Spreads by Rating / Industry

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

 

It was a no-print Friday today and a well-deserved one at that considering yesterday was the 4th busiest ever in our dollar IG DCM. We priced $53.233b in new IG Corporate-only product this week in just three days and $65.233b including SSA issuance!  What a heck of a start to the New Year!  This morning’s NFP number was another very strong one posting a 156k payroll increase versus 175k estimates or 17% better than expected.  You know what that means…….with labor shortages expected throughout 2017, wages will increase and when wages increase people spend more money and when people spend more money the Fed is more likely to raise rates!  But let’s not get ahead of ourselves.  We have a big January 20th inauguration ahead of us that should make for great TV before Trump & Co. institute rapid change with a Republican controlled Beltway. But before that our U.S. six-pack big FIGs release earnings beginning on January 13th thru the 18th which leaves next week open prior to that deluge.  In speaking to the “Best and the Brightest” in the world of syndicate this morning it’s looking like we drop off a lot from this week but then again $30b, $35b, $40b speaks volumes about just how incredible this week was.  Allow me to opine therein and then let’s re-cap things first before I invite you all to join me as we visit with each of the top 23 syndicate desks in our IG dollar DCM to hear their thoughts, numbers and ranges for next week.

 

My Thoughts re: Next Week’s Issuance

Tuesday’s deals were tighter, and Wednesday’s deals were tighter BUT some widened while yesterday’s deals were 48% wider? What’s it mean? It means “get it while it’s hot,” and the hotter it gets, the more they compress spreads and the more they compress spreads the more likely they are to leak out. So, with the U.S. six-pack banks set to release earnings beginning on January 13th thru the 18th, we have a bit before that money center bank deluge happens. In the interim, next week will seem like a drop off in issuance but why wouldn’t it? We priced the 4th busiest day in history for both IG Corporate AND for IG Corporates and SSA yesterday ($53.233b and $65.233b respectively). By those standards any other week will pale in comparison. However, I believe things hold in and we get $40bn-plus of all-in Corp + SSA issuance next week. Call IG Corporates $35b.

 

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

 

  • Taking a look at the secondary trading performance of this week’s IG and SSA new issues, of the 67 deals that printed, 38 tightened versus NIP for a 56.50% improvement rate while 16 widened (24.00%) and 13 were flat (19.50%).
  • For the week ended January 4th, Lipper U.S. Fund Flows reported an inflow of $2.186b into Corporate Investment Grade Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $2.186b) and a net inflow of $734.107 into High Yield Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $734.107b).
  • The average spread compression from IPTs thru the launch/final pricing of today’s XX IG Corporate-only new issues was XX.XX bps.
  • BAML’s IG Master Index widened 1 bp to +129 vs. +128.  +106 represents the post-Crisis low dating back to July 2007.
  • Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS widened 1 bp to +122 vs. +121.  The “LUACOAS” wide since 2012 is +215. The tight is +122.
  • Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread widened 1 bp to +167 vs. +166.  The +140 reached on July 30th 2014 represents the post-Crisis low.
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $22b on Thursday (7th highest day since 2006) versus $22.4b on Wednesday (6th highest volume day) and $4.1b the previous Thursday.
  • The 10-DMA stands at $9.6b.

 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for January 

 

IG Corporate New Issuance January 2017
Forecasts
vs. Current
MTD – $53.233b
Low-End Avg. $107.87b 49.35%
Midpoint Avg. $108.41b 49.10%
High-End Avg. $108.96b 48.86%
The Low $80b 66.54%
The High $145b 36.71%

 

The Best and the Brightest” –  Syndicate Forecasts and Sound Bites for Next Week  

I am happy to announce that, once again, the “QC” received unanimous responses from the 23 syndicate desks surveyed in today’s Best & Brightest poll.  22 of those participants are among 2016’s top 24 ranked syndicate desks according to today’s Bloomberg’s U.S. IG U.S. Investment Grade Corporate Bond underwriting league table.  In fact, all of today’s 23 participants finished in the top 25 of last year’s final IG Corporate Bloomberg league table.  The 2016 League table can be found on your terminals at “LEAG” + [GO] after which you select #201 (US Investment Grade Corporates).  The participating desks represent 81.59% of all IG dollar-denominated new issue underwriting as of today’s table share percentage which simply means they’re the ones with visibility.  But it’s not only about their volume forecasts, it’s also about their comments!  This core syndicate group does it best; they know best; so they’re the ones you WANT and NEED to hear from.  It’s a great look at the week ahead.

*Please note that these are Investment Grade Corporates only. They do not include SSA issuance unless otherwise noted.

 

As always “thank you” to all the syndicate desks that participated in today’s survey.  I greatly appreciate your time to contribute and for making this edition of the “QC” among the most widely read! You are helping to promote Mischler’s value-added DCM proposition while adding readership to the “QC” that won Wall Street Letter’s Award as Best Broker Dealer Research in our financial services industry for the third consecutive year! That’s 2014, 2015 and 2016 !!   

To best frame our weekly poll i.e.  projected new issue activity, we posed the following to our  Best & Brightest”respondents:

This week’s $53.233b of IG Corporate only new issue volume ranks as the 4th largest of all-time.

  • This week’s $65.233b of all-in (IG Corporate and SSA) issuance also ranks as the 4th highest of all-time. 
  • This week’s IG Corporate only volume total ($53.233b) represents just over 49% of the syndicate midpoint average forecast for all of January ($108.41) after only 3 sessions!  

Here are this week’s five IG Corporate-only key primary market driver averages after the close of yesterday’s: 

o   NICS:  2.25 bps

o   Oversubscription Rates: 2.45x

o   Tenors:  6.52 years

o   Tranche Sizes: $859mm

o   Spread Compression from IPTs to the Launch: <15.27> bps


Here’s the performance data comparing this week’s averages versus those of the week ending December 15th:

 

  • NICs widened 1.75 bps to 2.25 bps vs. <0.50> bps..
  • Over subscription or bid-to-cover rates increased marginally by 0.04x to 2.45x vs. 2.41x. 
  • Average tenors shortened dramatically by 4.15 years to 6.52 years vs. 10.67 years.
  • Tranche sizes increased noticeably by $151mm to $859mm vs. $708mm.
  • Spread compression from IPTs to the launch/final pricing of this week’s 62 IG Corporate new issues widened by <1.90> bps to <15.27> vs. <17.17>.
  • Standard and Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spreads tightened 2 bps to +167 vs. +169.
  • Week-on-week, BAML’s IG Master Index tightened 1 bp to +129 versus +130 on Thursday, December 15th
  • Spreads across the four IG asset classes tightened by 0.75 bps to 20.00 vs. 22.00 bps on Thursday, December 15th and as measured against their post-Crisis lows. 
  • Looking at the 19 major industry sectors, spreads tightened 1.57 bps to 26.32 vs. 27.89 on Thursday, December 15th, also against their post-Crisis lows.

 

……and now for the first time of 2017, I’d like to know your thoughts and your numbers for next week’s IG Corporate new issue volume. You all know that I greatly appreciate your participation week in and week out.
Thanks very much, Ron!

 

The “Best and the Brightest” in Their Own Words

 

……..……and here are their formidable responses: (more…)

PEMEX Prints USD 5.5bil 3-Part; Eye On Investment Grade Credit Spreads
December 2016      Debt Market Commentary   

Quigley’s Corner 12.06.16 – PEMEX Prints USD 5.5b 3-Part for Pole Position in Day’s Debt Issuance


Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap 

Global Market Recap

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and December  

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

New Issues Priced

Indexes and New Issue Volume

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending November 30th    

Investment Grade Credit Spreads by Rating

Investment Grade Credit Spreads by Industry

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline – $303.84 Billion in Cumulative Enterprise Value!

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

Tomorrow’s Calendar

 

3 IG Corporate issuers priced 7 tranches between them totaling $7.65b today bringing the WTD total to $13.975b or over 78% of this week’s syndicate midpoint average forecast calling for $17.87b.  MTD we’ve issued $28.905b or nearly 70%% of the $41.52b estimate.  PEMEX printed a $5.5b three-part Senior Notes transaction that accounted for 72% of today’s IG primary market volume. SSA issuance was once again absent for the third consecutive session.

 

Global Market Recap

 

  • S. Treasuries – Closed mixed for the 2nd day but today the curve was steeper.
  • Overseas Bonds – JGB’s mostly red. Bunds & Gilts lost. Strong Peripheral bid.
  • 3mth Libor – Set at its highest yield (0.95083%) since May 2009.
  • Stocks – Small gains heading into close led by the NASDAQ.
  • Overseas Stocks – Big bank rally in Europe. Asia more green than red.
  • Economic – Trade deficit cuts into GDP. Factory orders & economic optimism strong.
  • Overseas Economic – EU GDP inched higher & strong German factory orders.
  • Currencies – Bounce back day for the USD. USD outperformed all of the Big 5.
  • Commodities – Down day for commodities including crude oil.
  • CDX IG: -1.78 to 70.11
  • CDX HY: -6.60 to 375.61
  • CDX EM: -8.58 to 256.24

*CDX levels are as of 3:30PM ET today.

-Tony Farren

 

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

 

  • CBL & Associates LP upsized today’s 10-year Senior Notes new issue to $400mm from $300mm at the launch.
  • The average spread compression from IPTs thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 7 IG Corporate-only new issues, including today’s KeyCorp Pfd., was <29.32> bps.
  • BAML’s IG Master Index was unchanged at +135.  +106 represents the post-Crisis low dating back to July 2007.
  • Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS tightened 1 bp to +128 vs. +129.  The “LUACOAS” wide since 2012 is +215. The tight is +135.
  • Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread tightened 1 bp to +175 vs. +176.  The +140 reached on July 30th 2014 represents the post-Crisis low.
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $14.0b on Monday versus $25.0b on Friday and $16.9b the previous Monday.

 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and December  

 

IG Corporate New Issuance This Week
12/05-12/09
vs. Current
WTD – $13.975b
December 2016
Forecasts
vs. Current
MTD – $28.905b
Low-End Avg. $16.78b 83.28% $40.87b 70.72%
Midpoint Avg. $17.87b 78.20% $41.52b 69.62%
High-End Avg. $18.96b 73.71% $42.17b 68.54%
The Low $10b 139.75% $30b 96.35%
The High $25b 55.90% $60b 48.17%

 

 

Below please find my synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary from today’s debt capital markets, including the investment grade corporate bond data drill down as seen from my seat here in Syndicate, Sales and DCM.

 

Have a great evening!
Ron Quigley

 

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

 

Here’s a review of this week’s five key primary market driver averages for IG Corporates only through Monday’s session followed by the averages over the prior four weeks:

KEY IG CORPORATE
NEW ISSUE DRIVERS
MON.
12/05
AVERAGES
WEEK 11/28
AVERAGES
WEEK 11/21
AVERAGES
WEEK 11/14
AVERAGES
WEEK 11/07
New Issue Concessions <1.05> bps 3.53 bps 4.5 bps 3.62 bps <3.60> bps
Oversubscription Rates 4.16x 3.38x 2.99x 2.78x 4.26x
Tenors 15.09 yrs 10.84 yrs 12.14 yrs 11.28 yrs 13.31 yrs
Tranche Sizes $575mm $711mm $929mm $1,039mm $692mm
Avg. Spd. Compression
IPTs to Launch
<19.43> bps <17.60> bps <16.07> bps <17.69> bps <22.96> bps

 

New Issues Priced

Today’s recap of visitors to our IG dollar Corporate and SSA DCM:

For ratings I use the better two of Moody’s, S&P or Fitch.

 

IG

Issuer Ratings Coupon Maturity Size IPTs GUIDANCE LAUNCH PRICED LEADS
CBL & Associates Baa3/BBB- 5.95% 12/15/2026 400 +375a N/A +375 +375 JPM/JEFF/USB/WFS
PEMEX Baa3/BBB+ FRN 3/11/2022 1,000 3mL+equiv 3mL+equiv 3mL+365   BAML/CITI/JPM/MIZ/MS
PEMEX Baa3/BBB+ 5.375% 3/13/2022 1,500 6.00%-low 6.00%
6.125%a
5.625%a (+/-12.5) 5.50% +366.4 BAML/CITI/JPM/MIZ/MS
PEMEX Baa3/BBB+ 6.50% 3/13/2027 3,000 7.00%-low 7.00%
7.125%a
6.75%a (+/-12.5) 6.625% +423.3 BAML/CITI/JPM/MIZ/MS
PNC Bank NA Aa2/A+ FRN X/XX/2018 400 3mL+equiv 3mL+equiv 3mL+40 3mL=40 BARC/GS/MS/PNC
PNC Bank NA Aa2/A+ 1.70% X/XX/2018 600 +low 70s/+72.5a +65a (+/-2) +63 +63 BARC/GS/MS/PNC
PNC Bank NA Aa2/A+ 2.55% X/XX/2021 750 +mid/high 80s
+86.25a
+77a (+/-2) +75 +75 BARC/GS/MS/PNC

           

Indexes and New Issue Volume

 

Index Open Current Change  
LUACOAS 1.29 1.28 <0.01>
IG27 71.894 69.54 <2.354>
HV27 143.865 143.40 <0.465>
VIX 12.14 11.79 <0.35>  
S&P 2,204 2,212 8
DOW 19,216 19,251 35  
 

USD

 

IG Corporates

 

USD

 

Total IG (+SSA)

DAY: $7.65 bn DAY: $7.65 bn
WTD: $13.975 bn WTD: $13.975 bn
MTD: $28.905 bn MTD: $34.655 bn
YTD: $1,273.667 bn YTD: $1,613.401 bn

 

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending November 30th    

     

  • For the week ended November 30th, Lipper U.S. Fund Flows reported an outflow of $1.302b from Corporate Investment Grade Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $41.464b) and a net inflow of $341.7m into High Yield Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $4.939b).
  • Over the same period, Lipper reported a net inflow of $339.2b into Loan Participation Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $561.5m).
  • Emerging Market debt funds reported a net outflow of $188.9m (2016 YTD inflow of $5.743b).

 

Investment Grade Credit Spreads by Rating

The 10-day IG spread performance vs. the T10 across the ratings spectrum and how IG compared versus high yield:

Spreads across the four IG asset classes are an average 25.25 bps wider versus their post-Crisis lows!

 

ASSET CLASS 12/05 12/02 12/01 11/30 11/29 11/28 11/25 11/24 11/23 11/22 1-Day Change 10-Day Trend PC
low
IG Avg. 135 135 135 136 136 136 136 136 136 137 0 <2> 106
“AAA” 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 77 0 <2> 50
“AA” 82 83 83 84 84 83 84 84 84 84 <1> <2> 63
“A” 107 107 107 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 0 <1> 81
“BBB” 173 174 174 175 177 177 177 177 177 178 <1> <5> 142
IG vs. HY 323 329 327 331 333 330 328 330 330 333 <6> <10> 228

 

IG Credit Spreads by Industry

…….and a snapshot of the major investment grade sector credit spreads for the past ten sessions:

Spreads across the major industry sectors are an average 31.89 bps wider versus their post-Crisis lows!

                                    

INDUSTRY 12/05 12/02 12/01 11/30 11/29 11/28 11/25 11/24 11/23 11/22 1-Day Change 10-Day Trend PC
low
Automotive 121 122 122 123 123 123 124 124 124 123 <1> <2> 67
Banking 125 126 125 125 126 126 126 126 126 126 <1> <1> 98
Basic Industry 175 176 175 177 175 175 175 175 175 176 <1> <1> 143
Cap Goods 100 101 101 102 101 101 102 101 101 102 <1> <2> 84
Cons. Prod. 109 110 109 110 110 110 111 111 111 111 <1> <2> 85
Energy 175 177 177 180 181 180 181 180 180 181 <2> <6> 133
Financials 155 155 154 155 157 157 157 157 157 157 0 <2> 97
Healthcare 118 118 118 119 118 118 119 119 119 119 0 <1> 83
Industrials 137 137 137 139 139 139 139 140 140 140 0 <3> 109
Insurance 146 147 146 147 147 147 147 147 147 147 <1> <1> 120
Leisure 135 135 135 135 135 134 135 135 135 135 0 0 115
Media 159 160 159 161 161 160 161 161 161 161 <1> <2> 113
Real Estate 144 144 144 144 142 142 143 143 143 143 0 +1 112
Retail 116 116 116 117 117 117 118 119 119 119 0 <3> 92
Services 128 128 128 128 127 127 128 128 128 128 0 0 120
Technology 110 110 110 112 112 113 113 113 113 114 0 <4> 76
Telecom 165 166 165 166 167 167 168 169 169 169 <1> <4> 122
Transportation 135 135 135 136 135 135 136 135 135 135 0 0 109
Utility 135 136 135 135 135 135 136 135 135 136 <1> <1> 104

 

New Issue Pipeline (more…)

US Election + FOMC Angst = Gold Rally; Mischler Debt Market Comment
November 2016      Debt Market Commentary   

Quigley’s Corner 11.01.16 : US Election + FOMC Angst = Gold Rally

 

Investment Grade Corporate Bond New Issue Re-Cap  – U.S. Election and Fed Anxiety Send Gold and Sfr Up

Global Market Recap

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

New Issues Priced

Indexes and New Issue Volume

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending October 26th  

Investment Grade Credit Spreads (by Rating/Industry)

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

Tomorrow’s Calendar

 

November kicked off today with 6 IG Corporate issuers pricing 7 tranches between them totaling $2.65b.  We are two days into the week and yet we’ve only priced $6.975b or 27% of the weekly syndicate forecast of $25.13b.  Election jitters and tomorrow’s FOMC Rate Decision sent the DOW down 105 points and the S&P off 15.  It’s probably a good thing that tomorrow’s Fed meeting is not followed by a summary of economic projections and a press conference by Chair Yellen.  When gold and the Swiss franc rise it means investors are uneasy, skittish and edgy about something.  In our inextricably linked new world economy, replete with myriad global event risk factors, today’s catalyst has everything to do with the U.S. Presidential election.  The VIX pushed out 1.5.  CDX HV gapped out 7.15. Gold was up $16 and the Swiss franc gained 1.36% on the USD.……..In financial terms, that spells …“A-N-X-I-E-T-Y”

 

Global Market Recap

 

  • U.S. Treasuries – USTs closed with a gain & had a very impressive rally from the low prices.
  • Overseas Bonds – JGB’s had small gains. Bonds in Europe traded poorly.
  • Stocks – Down day for stocks in the U.S. & Europe while Asia rallied.
  • Economic – U.S. data had more good than bad. China PMI data was very strong.
  • Currencies – USD lost ground vs. 4 of the Big 5 & the DXY Index was hit hard.
  • Commodities – Crude oil small loss, natural gas down and gold & silver were bid.
  • CDX IG: +0.812 to 79.52
  • CDX HY: +8.04 to 430.71
  • CDX EM: +5.62 to 247.84

*CDX levels are as of 3:30PM ET today.

-Tony Farren

 

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

 

  • Kimco Realty Corp. upsized today’s 2-part 7s/30s Senior Notes new issue to $750mm from $600mm at the launch and at the tightest side of guidance on both tranches.
  • The average spread compression from IPTs thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 7 IG Corporate-only new issues was 17.71 bps.
  • BAML’s IG Master Index widened 1 bp to +138 vs. +137.  +106 represents the post-Crisis low dating back to July 2007.
  • Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS was unchanged at +132.  The “LUACOAS” wide since 2012 is +215. The tight is +135.
  • Standard & Poor’s Global Fixed Income Research widened 1 bp to +183 vs. +182.  The +140 reached on July 30th 2014 represents the post-Crisis low.
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $15.9b on Monday versus $14.3b Friday and $14b the previous Monday.
  • The 10-DMA stands at $16.7b.

 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and October

 

IG Corporate New Issuance This Week
10/31-11/04
vs. Current
WTD – $6.975b
October 2016 vs. Current
MTD – $6.975b
November 2016
Low-End Avg. $24.26b 28.75% $87.83b 7.94% $90.70b
Midpoint Avg. $25.13b 27.76% $88.59b 7.87% $92.11b
High-End Avg. $26.00b 26.83% $89.35b 7.81% $93.52b
The Low $15b 46.50% $75b 9.30% $71b
The High $35b 19.93% $125b 5.58% $110b

 

Below please find my synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary from today’s debt capital markets, including the investment grade corporate bond data drill down as seen from my seat here in Syndicate, Sales and DCM.

Have a great evening!
Ron Quigley, Managing Director and Head of Fixed Income Syndicate

 

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

 

Here’s a review of this week’s key primary market driver averages for IG Corporates only through Monday’s session followed by the averages over the prior four weeks:

KEY IG CORPORATE
NEW ISSUE DRIVERS
MON.
10/31
AVERAGES
WEEK 10/24
AVERAGES
WEEK 10/17
AVERAGES
WEEK 10/10
AVERAGES
WEEK 10/03
New Issue Concessions 0.50 bps <0.51> bps 3.31 bps 1.87 bps 4.36 bps
Oversubscription Rates 2.99x 2.61x 3.05x 3.28x 4.20x
Tenors 8.39 yrs 7.77 yrs 9.16 yrs 11.51 yrs 12.16 yrs
Tranche Sizes $721mm $818mm $1,137mm $640mm $523mm
Avg. Spd. Compression
IPTs to Launch
<14.21> bps <17.42> bps      

 

New Issues Priced

Today’s recap of visitors to our IG dollar Corporate and SSA DCM:

(more…)

20th Century Bond Yields-Knowing the Past for the Future-Mischler Comment
October 2016      Debt Market Commentary   

Quigley’s Corner 10.12.16  Investment Grade Corporate Debt Comments: 20th Century Bond Yields

 

Investment Grade Corporate Debt New Issue Re-Cap

Global Market Recap

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

FOMC: Minutes: Headlines & Text

Knowing the Past for the Future – “20th Century Bond Yields”

Consumers Power Company Supplemental Indenture – 2.875% FMBs due 1977 Dated Sept 1, 1947

A Special Salute to Women’s Syndicate Association 2016 Holiday Charity Gala

New Issues Priced

Indexes and New Issue Volume

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending October 5th  

IG Credit Spreads (by Rating/Industry

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

 

It was a slow day today in our IG dollar DCM with one lone corporate issuer – Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank – pricing a $1b two-part 3-year FXD/FRN. I should add, however, that overall volume benefitted nicely from the SSA’s KfW $5b 3-year bringing the all-in IG day totals to 2 issuers, 3 tranches and $6b.

 

Let’s look at the global re-cap followed by the pertinent IG primary and secondary market talking points and a quick snapshot of WTD and MTD volumes in relation to syndicate forecasts and a look at today’s FOMC Minutes Headlines and Text.

 

o   U.S. Treasuries – Losing session for USTs but they did close above the session low prices.

o   Overseas Bonds – JGB’s closed mixed with long end bid. Poor session in Europe.

o   3mth Libor – Set at the highest yield since May 2009 (0.88111%).

o   Stocks – U.S. mixed at 3:30pm. Europe more red than green. Asia closed down.

o   Economic – The FOMC Minutes were a mixed bag. We have a divided Fed.

o   Currencies – USD mixed. The DXY Index traded over 98 for the 1st time since March.

o   Commodities – Crude oil & gold had small losses. Wheat traded poorly.

o   CDX IG: +0.03 to 75.78

o   CDX HY: -0.31 to 406.40

o   CDX EM: -3.25 to 237.40

*CDX levels are as of 3:30PM ET today.

-Tony Farren

 

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

 

  • The average spread compression from IPTs thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 2 IG Corporate-only new issues was 15.00 bps.
  • BAML’s IG Master Index tightened 1 bp to +138 vs. +139.  +106 represents the post-Crisis low dating back to July 2007.
  • Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS tightened 1 bp to +134 vs. +135.  The “LUACOAS” wide since 2012 is +215. The tight is +135.
  • Standard & Poor’s Global Fixed Income Research tightened 1 bp to +184 vs. +185.  The +140 reached on July 30th 2014 represents the post-Crisis low.
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $11.2b on Friday versus $17.3b Thursday and $15.3b the previous Friday.
  • The 10-DMA stands at $15.8b.

 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and October

 

IG Corporate New Issuance This Week
10/10-10/14
vs. Current
WTD – $11.605b
October 2016 vs. Current
MTD – $28.205b
Low-End Avg. $14.15b 82.01% $87.83b 32.11%
Midpoint Avg. $15.02b 77.26% $88.59b 31.84%
High-End Avg. $15.89b 73.03% $89.35b 31.57%
The Low $10b 116.05% $75b 37.61%
The High $20b 58.025% $125b 22.56%

 

FOMC Minutes: Headlines & Text

 

o   Substantial majority of officials saw risks as roughly balanced.

o   A few officials still saw risks weighted to the downside.

o   Several FOMC members saw rate rise “relatively soon.”

o   The decision to wait was a ”close call.”

o   It was noted that a “reasonable argument” could be made to hike.

o   A number of officials saw policy firming over the next few years.

o   Many FOMC members saw few signs of inflation pressure.

o   Several officials saw multiple headwinds to inflation.

o   Many saw some labor market slack remaining.

o   Differing views were voiced on the extent of labor market slack.

o   Some saw more scope for growth without pressuring the labor market.

o   Cost/benefit of undershooting full employment was discussed.

 

Consumers Energy Company’s John Murphy Transcends The Records for the “QC!” 

When I write my “Best and Brightest” syndicate forecast poll as we enter each new month I include a section titled “Knowing the Past for the Future” that takes a look at a decade’s worth of that month’s IG Corporate and SSA issuance.  It helps put the current forecast into historical perspective.  I then include an average over the past decade, five years and three years showing a year-by-year issuance break-out across that decade.  Many find it very helpful, useful and informative so, I do it.  Well guess what?  History is relative and it seems current market participants continue to enjoy records and “top ten lists” as does most of our nation.  “What’s the largest week of all-time?”..……..”What’s the highest IG Corporate monthly volume of all-time?” or how about ………….”…the lowest yield or coupon of all-time?”  A very astute and super good guy by the name of John Murphy at Consumers Energy Company  (NYSE:CMS) located in Jackson, Michigan reached out to me this morning regarding last evening’s “QC.”

 

Here’s what he wrote:

Ron,

Hope you’re well.  I continue to enjoy your market commentary.  While catching up on the end of last week’s versions, I noted the following info from your Thursday edition:

“However, all issuers should know that if you blinked you might have missed some historic news.  In speaking with Andrea Johnson of Informa Globalmarkets (US) Inc. she discovered and revealed that “the President and Fellows of Harvard College priced the lowest ever 30-year yield and set a new all-time low for 40-year coupons.”

You’ll see from your attached commentary from 2012 in the third paragraph below, you addressed this same subject regarding perceived ‘lowest ever” 30-yr rates.  Certainly today’s low rates are remarkable, but as you indicated below, they are modern low rates, not lowest ever.  I’ve attached a scan from the supplemental indenture of one of Consumers Energy’s (formerly Consumers Power) early 30 year bonds from 1947 (2 7/8%).  Best wishes.

John Murphy

 

And here is a re-print of my closing commentary dated March 10, 2012 that John is referring to:

All time low investment grade rated corporate bond coupons: In addition, I’d like to mention that a respected elder statesman of the U.S. utility industry, who also happens to be an avid reader of this daily, delineated for me the difference between the “modern era” of bond yields with those of the 20th century specifically during the 1950s.  Many financial information and data services publish various top ten or top twenty low coupon rate grids and the like.  People enjoy placing facts and data in historical contexts and quite honestly, our society loves to know “the biggest this” and “the lowest that”, “who is number one” and “what are the top ten”.  It’s an extension of our culture.  The reader was very kind to express his enjoyment of my write ups however he observed that references to all-time low coupons should be modified to “modern history.”  From 1945 thru the early 1950s high grade corporate bond yields hovered at around 2.75% to 3%.  He particularly identified several 30-year FMBs that carried low 3% coupons noting that there are other utilities with similar histories.  So, we acknowledge the history lesson, we enjoy such exchanges and encourage any of our readers to chime in with opinions, suggestions or snippets of history that make for fun and informative exchanges which result in a better product.  As a result of this great “history lesson” going forward I will identify low coupon records in the context of “modern history,”  After all, available data bases are wonderful and helpful sources of information, but history didn’t start when those data bases began.  I’d also like to thank the reader for the friendly and informative exchange as well as for supplying me with a reference page that he stumbled upon in an old textbook. It graphs what interest rate “indices” illustrate from what he jokingly referred to as the “Pleistocene era.”  The sub 3% era on the graph for corporate 30-year bonds corresponds nicely with several U.S. utilities’ “golden age” of coupon rates.  Treasury/Funding teams as well as all market participants should get a kick out the below chart titled “20th Century Bond Yields” and followed by the “Indenture” cover.

Please enjoy!

 

Knowing the Past for the Future – “20th Century Bond Yields”

20th-century-bond-yields-mischler

Consumers Power Company Supplemental Indenture – 2.875% FMBs due 1977 Dated September 1, 1947

 

owest-rates-ever-corporate-debt-mischler

 

 

 

Now THAT right there folks is pretty cool stuff! Definitely a wealth of knowledge whom we appreciate! John is highly respected and regarded in our domestic utility sector and he literally personifies the term “Know the Past for the Future” especially given his 40+ years at CMS.  Thank you John for the e-mail this morning pal.

 

For those of you wondering, Andrea Johnson’s data base dates back to 1993 hence, “of the modern era.”……….and “yes” AJ enjoyed the well-intended and collegial history lesson.

 

Next up………………………………………

 

Women’s Syndicate Association 2016 Holiday Charity Gala to Help Raise Funds for “Strong Women, Strong Girls” (SWSG)

wsa-annual-event-swsg

Speaking of women who are great at what they do, much like Andrea Johnson who is the best at what she does, I received an IPREO wire this morning from The Women’s Syndicate Association (WSA).  I would guess that anyone in syndicate received the same this morning as well.  It is a cordial invitation to attend WSA’s 2016 Holiday Charity Gala on Wednesday, November 30, 2016.

Here it is:

 

Join us for a festive evening with the entire syndicate community, in an effort to raise proceeds for an important charity (listed below). Note:  This is a street-wide event, in which all attendees are welcome (i.e., non-members/members, males/females).

Venue details are as follows:

Date:            Wednesday, November 30, 2016

Time:            6:00pm – 10:00pm

Location:     Brasserie 8 ½

9 West 57th Street (Between 5th/6th Ave)

New York, NY 10017

Cost of the event is $150.00 per person, which includes Hors D’oeuvres, Buffet Dinner and Open Bar. Raffle tickets will be sold at the venue (cash only) to fund the selected charity.

Please use the following link to register and submit payment for all  guests, prior to November 23rd:

https://www.eventbrite.com/e/wsa-holiday-charity-gala-tickets-28511792539

If you are interested in making a generous donation for this event, please contact Gina Kashinsky at gina.kashinsky@ipreo.com or 212.849.0363.  All donations are welcomed and appreciated!

We look forward to commencing the holiday season with you all in the most benevolent fashion!

 

A Word About the Women’s Syndicate Association     


With over 250 active members, including alumni, the Women’s Syndicate Association or “WSA” is valued for its success in helping women form lasting ties with colleagues across the financial services industry.  The WSA sponsors a wide variety of events throughout the year to create unique opportunities for its members to meet and share their experiences.  Through the Women’s Syndicate Association, members have been able to build mutually beneficial relationships that stretch from the workplace to their home life.  The “QC” is only too happy to promote the WSA for all they do to give back to wonderful causes 365 days of the year!  Chances are that most of my 3,500+ readership group, especially those in syndicate, have been attending the annual WSA shindig for years.  Let’s remember all the hard work the members of WSA do away from their meaningful annual reception as in the case of their latest fundraiser for Strong Women Strong Girls.

WSA’s 2016 Beneficiary: Strong Women Strong Girls (SWSG)

Founded in 2004, this non-for-profit organization is dedicated to mentoring females in under-resourced communities to build strength and empowerment. Strong Women, Strong Girls strives to support positive mentoring relationships between college women and pre-adolescent girls in underserved local communities with the vision that every girl realizes her inner strengths to dream and do.

Some glaring FACTS about women and girls that you need to know:

o   Today, a girl’s self-esteem peaks in the 4th grade, when she is just 9 years old.

o   Today, women represent only 11% of the engineers in the work force.

o   Today women make up only 18% of the House of Representatives.

o   Today, working women are only paid 2/3 of what men make doing the same job.

o   Today, only 3% of women are CEO’s of Fortune 500 companies.

 

Those statistics need to be changed for the 52% of the world’s population – who are women.

And now the ask – please find it in yourselves to attend the upcoming WSA event and/or donate to this wonderful worthy cause that helps empower women to achieve their full potential.  Strong women make a difference in our world, our industry and in our personal lives.  As they say at SWSG: “Strong girls will dream farther; Strong women will help them get there.”  I’ll also add that dedicated and encouraging men will co-sign and support those dreams and achievements!  There’s everything right about this folks so get your check books out and write one to SWSG.  I donated today as well.

Please use the following link to register and submit payment for all  guests, prior to November 23rd:

https://www.eventbrite.com/e/wsa-holiday-charity-gala-tickets-28511792539

If you are interested in making a generous donation for this event, please contact Gina Kashinsky at gina.kashinsky@ipreo.com or 212.849.0363.  All donations are welcomed and appreciated

As they say at Strong Women, Strong Girls:

Succeed like a girl.

There is no ceiling.

Thank you and have a great evening!
Ron Quigley, Managing Director and Head of Fixed Income Syndicate

 

Below please find my synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary from today’s debt capital markets, including the investment grade corporate bond data drill down as seen from my seat here in Syndicate, Sales and DCM.

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors and Sizes (more…)

IG Corporate Debt: PepsiCo-Good AND Better For You; Mischler Comment
October 2016      Debt Market Commentary, Recent Deals   

Quigley’s Corner 10.03.16- PepsiCo: Good and Better For You

 

Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap – New Records, Negative Rates and a Blockbuster from Pepsi

Global Market Recap

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

The PepsiCo Inc. $4.5b 6-part Deal Dashboard

A Look at Socially-Responsible PepsiCo Inc.: Good and Better For You.

New Issues Priced

Indexes and New Issue Volume

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending September 28th

IG Credit Spreads (by Rating & Industry)

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

Tomorrow’s Calendar

 

In the limited time I had today to thumb through a very interesting Q3 report from friends and financial news reporters John Balassi and Michael Gambale of Thomson Reuters fame, the multi-billion dollar multinational mass media and information firm, I was taken by a couple talking points about Global New Issuance that you should find noteworthy:

o   Global Debt Capital Markets activity is up 27% to $5.5 trillion through Q3.

o   Q3 U.S. Investment Grade Corporate Debt is 9%

o   Global High Yield is down 21%

o   Government and Agency offerings rose 76%

o   Emerging Markets Debt is down 23%

o   Overall Debt Underwriting fees declined 9%

However, what’s more incredible is that we are witnessing an unprecedented surge in bonds the world over that are guaranteed to lose investors’ money if held to maturity given their negative yields.  In an article written by Bloomberg Editorial’s Phil Kuntz, the total face value of negative yielding corporate and sovereign debt in the “Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index of investment grade bonds jumped to $11.6 trillion as of September 30th, up 6.1% from the prior month……….less than one seventh of the world’s negative yielding debt is owed by businesses. Finance companies issued……almost 80% ….totaling $1.3 trillion!” The number includes debt one year and out.  Corporations account for 15% of the world’s negative debt while 85% is derived from governments.  That’s not good news folks.

This pie chart displays the drama in those numbers:

mischler corporate debt comment

 

So, what’s this got to with new issuance?  Everything because the place investors go to fill their portfolios is the safe haven of better rated IG corporate debt right here is our U.S. dollar-denominated primary markets.  In what continues to be a historically low rate environment, corporations have a wonderful window of opportunity before them to secure favorable funding for M&A, expansions, lower refi levels, you name.  What’s more, investors are attracted to the relative safe haven of these credits that do, in fact offer the best balance in our world in better managing risk exposure while securing a decent return, comparatively speaking.

 

That’s our segue into this evening’s IG DCM that owned the new issues leaderboards as 3 corporate issuers priced 11 tranches between them totaling $7.15b.  But the biggest deal of the day belonged to PepsiCo’s (NYSE:PEP) $4.5b 6-part Senior Notes transaction comprised of 3- and 5-year FXD/FRNs, 10s and 30s.  It also happens to be the Deal-of-the-Day as Mischler Financial, our nation’s oldest Service Disabled veteran broker dealer was more than honored to be named an active 1.00% Co-Manager and was showcased as one of two diversity co’s on today’s deal.  So, I invite you to join me in the relative value story of this deal and PepsiCo’s Diversity & Inclusion initiatives.

But first, here’s the global re-cap and a look at all today’s primary market talking points and issuance!

 

Global Market Recap

 

o   U.S. Treasuries – Better than expected ISM manufacturing hits the front end.

o   Stocks – U.S. stocks red (3:30pm). FTSE, Nikkei & HS rallied. Europe mostly red.

o   Economic – ISM manufacturing moved back over 50. Good news for hawks on the FOMC.

o   Currencies – USD outperformed the Euro, Pound & Yen. Pound had a very bad day.

o   Commodities – Crude oil closed higher while gold, copper, silver & wheat lost.

o   CDX IG: +0.50 to 75.63

o   CDX HY: +2.30 to 403.45

o   CDX EM: -0.65 to 233.06

*CDX levels are as of 3:30PM ET today.

-Tony Farren

 

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

 

  • The average spread compression from IPTs thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 11 IG Corporate-only new issues was 18.18 bps.
  • BAML’s IG Master Index was unchanged at +143.  +106 represents the post-Crisis low dating back to July 2007.
  • Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS was unchanged at +138.  The “LUACOAS” wide since 2012 is +215. The tight is +135.
  • Standard & Poor’s Global Fixed Income Research was unchanged at +189.  The +140 reached on July 30th 2014 represents the post-Crisis low.
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $15.3b on Friday versus $15.8b Thursday and $13.3b the previous Thursday.
  • The 10-DMA stands at $16.2b.

 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and October

 

IG Corporate New Issuance This Week
10/03-10/07
vs. Current
WTD – $7.15b
October 2016 vs. Current
MTD – $7.15b
Low-End Avg. $17.35b 41.21% $87.83b 8.14%
Midpoint Avg. $18.54b 38.57% $88.59b 8.07%
High-End Avg. $19.74b 36.22% $89.35b 8.00%
The Low $15b 47.67% $75b 9.53%
The High $26b 27.50% $125b 5.72%

 

The PepsiCo Inc. $4.5b 6-part Deal Dashboard

 

PEPSI Issue IPTs GUIDANCE LAUNCH PRICED Spread
Compression
Comparable Bid
Pre-Announcement
NICs
(bps)
Trading at
the Break
+/-
(bps)
3yr FXD +55-60 +50a (+/-5) +45 +45 <12.5> PEP 1.50% ’19 T+35 (G+42)
Curve adjusted = flat
0 44/43 <1>
3yr FRN 3mL+equiv 3mL+equiv 3mL+27 3mL+27 <12.5> PEP 1.50% ’19 T+35 (G+42)
Curve adjusted = flat
0 3mL+26/24 <1>
5yr FXD +65-70 +60a (+/-5) +55 +55 <12.5> PEP 3.00% ’21 T+54 (G+55) 0 54/53 <1>
5yr FRN 3mL+equiv 3mL+equiv 3mL+53 3mL+53 <12.5> PEP 3.00% ’21 T+54 (G+55) 0 3mL+52/51 <1>
10yr +90-95 +80a (+/-5) +75 +75 <17.5> PEP 2.85% ’26 (T+67/G+71) +4 74/73 <1>
30yr +130-135 +120a (+/-5) +115 +115 <17.5> PEP 4.45% ’46 (T+112) +3 114/ <1>

 

………and here’s a look at final book sizes and over-subscription rates:

 

ETR Issue Tranche Size Final Book
Size
Bid-to-Cover
Rate
3yr FXD 250mm 450m 1.8x
3yr FRN 750mm 1,950m 2.6x
5yr FXD 250mm 600mm 2.4x
5yr FRN 750mm 2,200m 2.93x
10yr 1,000m 3,250m 3.25x
30yr 1,500m 4mm 2.67x

 

Thank You’s Galore

 

Let’s see if you’ve been reading the “QC” with a simple test question – “Where does D&I start in corporate America?”  Correct good job!  The answer is it starts from the top down.  At PepsiCo, the world’s second largest food and beverage business that means India-born and naturalized American Chairperson and Chief Executive Officer Indra Nooyi.  It is from her office that Pepsi’s D&I initiative is carried, embraced and filtered through what is among the best-in-class Diversity and Inclusion mandates that we saw in action today, as evidenced by Mischler’s opportunity to demonstrate our capital markets capabilities and to work with PepsiCo’s Treasury/Funding Department.

Mischler sends off its five-star salute this evening to all of you with thanks not only for the privilege to be involved in your transaction, but for the active roll you enabled and supported us to participate with.  As a 1.00% active Co-Manager we were able to introduce nearly one quarter of a billion dollars in volume and 80 individual orders to Pepsi’s six-part order books.  By allocating Team Mischler we then see return business from our middle markets distribution network that executes Corporate, Agency, ABS/MBS, Rates and Municipal business among others.  The sustainable growth trajectory we are on, in turn, helps fund our “giving back and pay forward set asides”  so that we can apply our shared ethos to give back to our Veteran community.  This is a circular process, and it’s how we grow our business while giving back to veteran and service disabled veteran organizations – the root of our diversity certification.  So, thank you all at Team Pepsi from all of us here at Team Mischler for being great stewards for D&I and Veteran causes.

PepsiCo Inc debtA Look at Socially Responsible PepsiCo Inc.: Good and Better For You

But let me tell you a bit more about Pepsi D&I leadership roles. Pepsi’s Supplier Diversity mandate began over 30 years ago at the company and its annual spend is approximately $1.3 billion!  Also, internally, PepsiCo recognizes individuals within the company who are active supporters of diversity and inclusion in the workplace.  Two such honors are the Harvey C. Russell Inclusion Award to honor employees for their outstanding achievements in diversity and inclusion.  Most recently, 76 associates from Pepsi’s Global business were awarded.  Additionally, Pepsi offers the Global Steve Reinemund Diversity and Inclusion Leadership Award recognizing senior Pepsi staff members who model exemplary leadership and a commitment to diversity and inclusion.

Which brings me to PepsiCo’s incredible commitment to hire U.S. military veterans, an initiative that earned it a top 25 ranking for the second consecutive year in the G.I. Jobs ranking of Top 100 Military Friendly Employers in 2013.  Pepsi is the lone food and beverage company in the top 50 companies in that category.  Also in 2013, Pepsi’s online jobs clearinghouse named, Bright.com, secured the top ranking for Pepsi among Fortune 50 companies in “most veterans hired” as a percentage of its workforce.  How awesome is that folks?  For four consecutive years Pepsi’s recycling program provided $1.5million to support Entrepreneurship Bootcamp for Veterans or “EBV” that helps veterans build their own businesses to pursue their dreams. Those are just some of the ways Pepsi is giving back.

They gave the nation’s oldest SDVBE a chance again today to prove our muster and so, it’s our job and expectation to deliver the goods and in addition to extol the virtues and tell the stories of what Pepsi does to make this world a better, more socially responsible place; Pepsi is Good and Better For You!

Below please find my synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary from today’s debt capital markets, including the investment grade corporate bond data drill down as seen from my seat here in Syndicate, Sales and DCM.

Have a great evening!
Ron Quigley, Managing Director, Head of Fixed Income Syndicate

 

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors and Sizes

 

…..and here’s another look at last week’s day-by-day re-cap of key primary market driver averages for IG Corporates only followed by the prior four week’s averages:

KEY IG CORPORATE
NEW ISSUE DRIVERS
MON.
9/26
TUES.
9/27
WED.
9/28
TH.
9/29
FRI.
9.30
AVERAGES
WEEK 9/26
AVERAGES
WEEK 9/19
AVERAGES
WEEK 9/12
AVERAGES
WEEK 9/05
New Issue Concessions 2.50 bps N/A 5.69 bps 0 bps/flat N/A 2.71 bps 0.69 bps 4.66 bps 1.30 bps
Oversubscription Rates 3.71x N/.A 2.66x 4.12x N/A 3.52x 3.23x 3.47x 3.23x
Tenors 13.12 yrs 30 yrs 7.71 yrs 7.29 yrs N/A 10.51 yrs 9.36 yrs 11.28 yrs 9.42 yrs
Tranche Sizes $509mm $150mm $862mm $681mm N/A $646mm $964mm $710mm $719mm

 

New Issues Priced

Today’s recap of visitors to our IG dollar Corporate and SSA DCM:

For ratings I use the better two of Moody’s, S&P or Fitch.

 

IG

Issuer Ratings Coupon Maturity Size IPTs GUIDANCE LAUNCH PRICED LEADS
General Motors Finc’l. Co. BBB-/BBB- FRN 10/04/2019 250 3mL+equiv 3mL+equiv 3mL+127 3mL+127 BAML/BNPP/CITI/LLOY/MIZ
General Motors Finc’l. Co. BBB-/BBB- 2.35% 10/04/2019 750 +155a +145 the # +145 +145 BAML/BNPP/CITI/LLOY/MIZ
General Motors Finc’l. Co. BBB-/BBB- 4.00% 10/06/2026 750 +260a +245a (+/-5) +240 +240 BAML/BNPP/CITI/LLOY/MIZ
PepsiCo. Inc. A1/A FRN 10/04/2019 250 3mL+equiv 3mL+equiv 3mL+27 3mL+27 BAML/CITI/GS/MIZ
PepsiCo. Inc. A1/A 1.35% 10/04/2019 750 +55-60 +50a (+/-5) +45 +45 BAML/CITI/GS/MIZ
PepsiCo. Inc. A1/A FRN 10/06/2021 250 3mL+equiv 3mL+equiv 3mL+53 3mL+53 BAML/CITI/GS/MIZ
PepsiCo. Inc. A1/A 1.70% 10/06/2021 750 +65-70 +60a (+/-5) +55 +55 BAML/CITI/GS/MIZ
PepsiCo. Inc. A1/A 2.375% 10/06/2026 1,000 +90-95 +80a (+/-5) +75 +75 BAML/CITI/GS/MIZ
PepsiCo. Inc. A1/A 3.45% 10/06/2046 1,500 +130-135 +120a (+/-5) +115 +115 BAML/CITI/GS/MIZ
Xylem Inc. Baa2/BBB 3.25% 11/01/2026 500 +200a +170a (+/-5) +165 +165 CITI/WFS(a) JPM (p)
Xylem Inc. Baa2/BBB 4.375% 11/01/2046 400 +250a +215a (+/-5) +210 +210 CITI/WFS(a) JPM (p)

 

Indexes and New Issue Volume

 

Index Open Current Change
LUACOAS 1.38 1.38 0
IG27 75.132 75.232 0.10
HV27 176.145 175.005 <1.14>
VIX 13.29 13.57 0.28
S&P 2,168 2,161 <7>
DOW 18,308 18,253 <55>
 

USD

 

IG Corporates

 

USD

 

Total IG (+ SSA)

DAY: $7.15 bn DAY: $7.15 bn
WTD: $7.15 bn WTD: $7.15 bn
MTD: $7.15 bn MTD: $7.15 bn
YTD: $1,081.886 bn YTD: $1,366.37 bn

 

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending September 28th

     

  • For the week ended September 28th, Lipper U.S. Fund Flows reported an inflow of $2.334b into Corporate Investment Grade Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $37.925b) and a net inflow of $2.011b into High Yield Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $9.444b).
  • Over the same period, Lipper reported a net inflow of $480.7m into Loan Participation Funds (2016 YTD net outflow of $3.319b).
  • Emerging Market debt funds reported a net inflow of $209.7m (2016 YTD inflow of $6.549b).

 

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

The 10-day IG spread performance vs. the T10 across the ratings spectrum and how IG compared versus high yield:

Spreads across the four IG asset classes are an average 33.25 bps wider versus their post-Crisis lows!

 

ASSET CLASS 9/30 9/29 9/28 9/27 9/26 9/23 9/22 9/21 9/20 9/19 1-Day Change 10-Day Trend PC
low
IG Avg. 143 143 143 143 142 141 141 142 142 142 0 +1 106
“AAA” 84 84 84 84 83 82 82 83 83 83 0 +1 50
“AA” 87 87 87 86 86 85 85 86 85 85 0 +2 63
“A” 113 114 114 114 113 112 112 113 113 113 <1> 0 81
“BBB” 185 185 185 185 184 183 183 185 184 185 0 0 142
IG vs. HY 354 366 371 375 374 369 368 380 382 383 <12> <29> 228

IG Credit Spreads by Industry

…….and a snapshot of the major investment grade sector credit spreads for the past ten sessions:

Spreads across the major industry sectors are an average 38.95 bps wider versus their post-Crisis lows!

                                    

INDUSTRY 9/30 9/29 9/28 9/27 9/26 9/23 9/22 9/21 9/20 9/19 1-Day Change 10-Day Trend PC
low
Automotive 122 121 121 121 119 119 119 121 120 120 +1 +2 67
Banking 133 136 134 134 131 131 131 133 132 133 <3> 0 98
Basic Industry 186 187 187 187 187 186 186 188 189 189 <1> <3> 143
Cap Goods 106 107 105 106 105 104 104 104 104 104 <1> +2 84
Cons. Prod. 111 111 111 112 110 110 110 111 111 111 0 0 85
Energy 191 191 192 193 193 191 191 192 192 192 0 <1> 133
Financials 169 167 167 167 166 165 165 167 167 167 +2 +2 97
Healthcare 120 119 119 119 118 118 118 119 118 118 +1 +2 83
Industrials 144 144 144 145 143 143 143 144 144 144 0 0 109
Insurance 162 163 163 163 163 162 162 163 162 163 <1> <1> 120
Leisure 140 141 140 141 141 141 142 142 142 142 <1> <2> 115
Media 165 164 165 165 164 164 164 166 165 165 +1 0 113
Real Estate 153 151 151 151 151 151 151 151 151 150 +2 +3 112
Retail 119 119 119 119 118 118 119 120 119 120 0 <1> 92
Services 133 136 135 135 134 134 135 135 135 135 <3> <2> 120
Technology 121 124 124 124 123 123 123 124 124 124 <3> <3> 76
Telecom 163 165 165 165 162 162 162 164 164 164 <2> <1> 122
Transportation 141 138 138 139 139 138 139 139 139 139 +3 +2 109
Utility 141 142 141 141 140 140 140 141 140 141 <1> 0 104

  (more…)

Fed NOT Raising Rates-Mischler Debt Market Comment
September 2016      Debt Market Commentary   

Quigley’s Corner 09.15.16 Fed Not Raising Rates

 

Investment Grade Corporate Debt New Issue Re-Cap – IG Lotto:Corporate Volume Tops Weekly Syndicate Estimates

 Global Market Recap

All You Need to Know About Today’s Bank of England Meeting

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

Fixed Income Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for September

New Issues Priced

Lipper Report/Fund Flows

IG Corporate Spreads (by Rating/Industry)

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

 

Today’s winning lotto numbers are 11-16-945 as in 11 IG Corporate issuers, priced 16 tranches totaling $9.45b.  With that amount we have officially broken through this week’s syndicate midpoint average forecasts by over 7% or $39.745b vs. $36.91b. Notable today was that 4 issuers upsized their transactions from initial morning announcement sizes.

Remember what I wrote this past Monday folks (Check your “QC” dated 9/12/2016.  – “Look folks, the Fed is not raising rates this year.  Many sight December as the next hike but it’s not happening.” The world can barely stand on two feet let alone get economic engines back to growth mode.  Today’s numbers confirm that. With that, read my lips, or read my commentary, but the take-away is the same: Fed NOT Raising Rates (at least not anytime soon, nor with any degree of significance that would upend the current global financial market environment).

Global Market Recap

 

  • S. Treasuries – USTs closed mixed with steeper curve. 5/30’s has steepened 10 days in a row.
  • 3mth Libor – Set at its highest yield (0.85656%) since May 2009.
  • Stocks – US stocks with a strong rally. FTSE leads Europe higher. Nikkei had a bad day.
  • Economic – Very disappointing day on the U.S. economic front.
  • Currencies – USD mixed & little changed vs. Euro & PND but lost ground vs. Yen/CAD/AUD.
  • Commodities – Crude eked out a gain, heating oil higher & gold lost ground.
  • CDX IG: -3.0 to 74.31
  • CDX HY: -11.76 to 405.92
  • CDX EM: -5.58 to 255.94

*CDX levels are as of 3:30PM ET today.

-Tony Farren

 

All You Need to Know About Today’s Bank of England Meeting

 

  • BOE Sees chance of another rate cut this year but holds today at 0.25%; Vote 9-0.
  • BOE keeps gilt purchase plan at £435b; Vote 9-0.
  • Holds corporate bond plan at £10b; Vote 9-0.
  • Monetary Policy Committee Majority expect rate cut “if” August outlook is confirmed.
  • Initial impact of August stimulus is “encouraging.”
  • Some near-term indicators are “better than expected.”
  • Inflation reaching 2% target in first half of 2017.
  • Lower bound is close to but a bit above, zero.
  • Second half slowdown may be less severe than previously forecast.
  • Cannot infer from near-term about 2017 or 2018 projections.
  • MPC view of “contours of economic outlook” are unchanged.
  • Hawkish BOE members Forbes, McCafferty say extra gilt purchases still not warranted.

 

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

 

  • Kite Realty Group LP upsized today’s 10-year Senior Notes new issue to $300mm from $250mm at the launch and at the tightest side of guidance.
  • CCL Industries Inc. increased today’s 10-year Senior Notes new issue to $500mm from $400mm at the launch and at the tightest side of guidance.
  • Dairy Farmers of America Inc. bumped up its new $1,000 par PerpNC10 cumulative preferred securities, Series “C” new issue to $150mm from $100mm at the launch and at the tightest side of guidance.
  • Pitney Bowes Inc. boosted its 5-year Senior Notes new issue to $600mm from $400mm at the launch.
  • The average spread compression from IPTs thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 16 IG Corporate-only new issues was 23.34 bps.
  • BAML’s IG Master Index widened 1 bp to +143 versus +142.  +106 represents the post-Crisis low dating back to July 2007.
  • Standard & Poor’s Global Fixed Income Research was unchanged at +191.  The +140 reached on July 30th 2014 represents the post-Crisis low.
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $17b on Wednesday versus $15.8b Tuesday and $16.5b the previous Wednesday.
  • The 10-DMA stands at $14b.

(more…)

IG Corporate Debt Issuance YTD: 1tn aka 1 TRILLION
September 2016      Debt Market Commentary   

Quigley’s Corner 09.13.16 –2016 IG Corporate Debt Issuance (so far)= $1 T-r-i-l-l-ion!

 

Investment Grade Corporate Debt New Issue Re-Cap – Another Broken Record –

Global Market Recap

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

New Issues Priced

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending September 7th

IG Credit Spreads (by Rating/Industry)

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

 broken-record-ig-debt-mischler

Yesterday I wrote, “the session finished with only those two deals priced totaling $1.2b with a promise from the guy-in-the-corner that tomorrow WILL be a VERY busy day!” Well tomorrow is today and true to my word we had a blockbuster.  I then wrote, “We are only $20.822bn away from $1 trillion in IG Corporate-only issuance YTD.   Last year we set a new IG Corporate-only record by reaching the $1 trillion mark on Thursday, October 1st(see your incoming “Quigley’s Corner” 9-30-2015). We’d shatter that record by nearly three weeks if it happens tomorrow!

I am happy to report that we reached the $1 trillion dollar mark in IG Corporate-only volume at the earliest stage in any year, shattering last year’s record set on October 1st by 18 business days or 2 weeks and 3 days.

13 IG Corporate issuers printed 26 tranches between them today totaling $22.344b5 SSA issuers added 5 tranches totaling $9.25b for an all-in IG day total of 18 issuers, 31 tranches and $31.594b.

There remain 12 new issues in the imminent pipeline either currently road showing, about to conduct investor meetings/calls or have already wrapped those up.  So, there’s plenty of business to go not counting M&A deals of which Shire looms large.

IG Corporate New Issuance This Week
9/12-9/16
vs. Current
WTD – $23.194b
September 2016 vs. Current
MTD – $75.654b
Low-End Avg. $35.83b 64.73% $115.45b 65.53%
Midpoint Avg. $36.91b 62.84% $116.02b 65.21%
High-End Avg. $38.00b 61.04% $116.59b 64.89%
The Low $30b 77.31% $80b 94.57%
The High $46b 50.42% $150b 50.44%


Here’s how it looked:

Category Totals
# of IG Corporate Issuers 12
# of IG Corporate Tranches 25
Total IG Volume $22.194b
# of SSA Issuers 5
# of SSA Tranches 5
Total SSA Volume $9.25b
Total Amount of All-in Issuers 17
Total Number of All-in Tranches 30
All-in Corps + SSA Amount $31.244b

 

Here’s a look at some other records:

 

o   $31.594 ranks as the 5th highest volume day in history for IG Corps plus SSA.

o   $31.594b ranks as the 2nd busiest all-in issuance day of 2016.

 

Global Market Recap

 

o   U.S Treasuries – Terrible day for USTs Bund’s & Gilts also headed south. JGB’s better.

o   Stocks – U.S. down Friday, up yesterday & down today. Europe red & Asia was mixed.

o   Economic – Nothing of note in the U.S. China & Japan data better. Europe mixed.

o   Currencies – Very good day for the USD & DXY Index.

o   Commodities – Crude oil and commodities, in general, struggled.

o   CDX IG: +3.70 to 76.96

o   CDX HY: +16.91 to 413.84

o   CDX EM: +12.92 to 254.60

*CDX levels are as of 3:30PM ET today.

-Tony Farren

 

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

 

  • Liberty Property Trust upsized today’s 10yr Senior Unsecured Notes new issue to $400mm from $300mm at the launch and at the tightest side of guidance.
  • Split-rated Aspen Insurance Holdings Ltd. increased its $25 par PerpNC10 non-cumulative Preferred new issue to $225mm from $150mm at the launch and tightest side of guidance.
  • The average spread compression from IPTs thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 24 IG Corporate-only new issues was 16.99 bps.
  • Including today’s Aspen $25 par Preferred, the average spread compression from IPTs thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 25 IG Corporate new issues was 16.54 bps.
  • BAML’s IG Master Index widened 2 bps to +142 versus +140.  +106 represents the post-Crisis low dating back to July 2007.
  • Standard & Poor’s Global Fixed Income Research widened 1 bp to +190 versus +189.  The +140 reached on July 30th 2014 represents the post-Crisis low.
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $12.6b on Monday versus $15.7b Friday.
  • The 10-DMA stands at $13.8b.

 

Below please find my synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary from today’s debt capital markets, including the investment grade corporate bond data drill down as seen from my seat here in Syndicate, Sales and DCM.

Ron Quigley, Managing Director / Head of Fixed Income Syndicate (more…)

IG Corporate Debt Market Outlook In Advance of Labor Day
August 2016      Debt Market Commentary   

Quigley’s Corner 08.18.16-In Advance of Labor Day: IG Corporate Debt Issuers Should Err to the Upside

 

Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap – It Ain’t Over ‘Til It’s Over!  Guess what?  It’s O-V-E-R!

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

“The Best and the Brightest”- Fixed Income Syndicate Outlook (Beyond Labor Day)

 “Knowing the Past for the Future” – A Look at a Decade’s Worth of September IG Corporate Issuance

From Quig-litz to Stiglitz: Is There A Solution?  A Northern and Southern Euro!

This Week’s IG New Issues and Where they’re Trading

Lipper Report/Fund Flows

Investment Grade Credit Spreads

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

 

Nothing…..zero..de nada!…Hasta la vista! The market is now officially in summer vacation mode folks.  Sure we might get some opportunistic issuers looking to get in ahead of the September rush, however, I was able to speak with all the major syndicate desks today.  My survey/poll was two-fold – to gauge volume forecasts for the remainder of August ($5.44b) and separately, for September issuance projections ($116.02b).  Several commented that the September tally is fluid because issuers are discussing pulling forward their issuance, so take it from me when I tell you to “err to the upside!”

September is traditionally a busy month (scroll down to my “Knowing the Past for the Future” section) as I take a look back at a decade’s worth of September IG issuance for each of IG Corporate, SSA and all-in volume.  The Fed mentioned the Italian banking crisis twice in their minutes yesterday.  The EU is coming undone. Vlad-the-Terrible Putin has a green card to annex Crimea and he will take full advantage of the fact that the EU cannot focus on him in their rearview mirror.  Putin knows this and he’ll take full advantage of it. The EU has too many troubles of its own.  We have a Presidential election on Tuesday, November 8th that could very well compress issuance from the standard stretch run to Thanksgiving (November 24th) by 12 days as a result.  When you err, err to the upside. 

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

 

  • Taking a look at the secondary trading performance of this week’s IG Corporate and SSA issues, of the 15 deals that printed, 12 tightened versus NIP for a 00% improvement rate while only 2 widened (13.33%) and 1 were trading flat (6.67%).
  • BAML’s IG Master Index tightened 1 bp to +142 versus +143.  +106 represents the post-Crisis low dating back to July 2007.
  • Standard & Poor’s Global Fixed Income Research tightened 1 bp to +191 versus  +192.  The +140 reached on July 30th 2014 represents the post-Crisis low.
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $16.9b on Wednesday versus $15.7b Tuesday and $15.6b the previous Wednesday.
  • The 10-DMA stands at $14.2b.

 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and August

 

IG Corporate New Issuance This Week
8/15-8/19
vs. Current
WTD – $8.448b
August 2016 vs. Current
MTD – $95.45b
Low-End Avg. $12.78b 66.10% $60.48b 157.82%
Midpoint Avg. $14.09b 59.96% $61.13b 156.14%
High-End Avg. $15.39b 54.89% $61.78b 154.50%
The Low $5b 168.96% $45b 212.11%
The High $20b 42.24% $75b 127.27%

 

“The Best and the Brightest” –  Syndicate Forecasts and Sound Bites for the Remainder of August and September 

 

I am happy to announce that, once again, the “QC” received unanimous responses from the 22 syndicate desks surveyed in today’s Best & Brightest poll.  20 of those participants are among 2016’s top 22 ranked syndicate desks according to today’s Bloomberg’s U.S. IG U.S. Investment Grade Corporate Bond underwriting league table.  In fact, all of today’s 20 participants finished in the top 25 of last year’s final IG Corporate Bloomberg league table.  The 2016 League table can be found on your terminals at “LEAG” + [GO] after which you select #201 (US Investment Grade Corporates).  Today’s cumulative underwriting percentage of the participating desks was 80.29% which simply means they’re the ones with visibility.  But it’s not only about their volume forecasts, it’s also about their comments!  This core syndicate group does it best; they know best; so they’re the ones you WANT and NEED to hear from.  It’s a great look at the week ahead.

 

*Please note that these are Investment Grade Corporates only. They do not include SSA issuance unless otherwise noted.

 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for the Remainder of August & September

 

IG Corporate New Issuance Remainder of August
8/19-8/31
September 2016
Low-End Avg. $4.45b $115.45b
Midpoint Avg. $5.44b $116.02b
High-End Avg. $6.43b $116.59b
The Low $0b $80b
The High $15b $150b

 

A Look at How the Voting Brackets Broke-Out for the Remainder of August & September

Remainder of August September
1: 0b 1:80-85b
1: 1-2b 2: 100b
1: 2b 1: 105b
1: 2-3b 1: 100-110b
3: 0-5b 3: 110b
1: 3b 3: 115b
4: 5b 1: 110-120b
2: 5-7b 2: 120b
1: 5-7.5b 6: 125b
2: 5-10b 1: 130b
4: 10b 1:150b
1: 5-15b  

 

“Knowing the Past for the Future” – A Look at a Decade’s Worth of September IG Corporate and SSA Issuance

 

  • Across the past ten years, all-in dollar-denominated IG Corporate plus SSA September new issuance averaged $117.55b.
  • Over the past five years, all-in IG September new issuance averaged $138.49b.
  • Over the past three years, all-in IG September issuance has averaged $157.58b.
  • The past three years of September saw IG Corporate only issuance average $127.88b.
  • September SSA issuance has averaged $29.71b across the last three years.

 

August
(Year)
All-in IG Issuance (bn) IG Corps
only (bn)
SSA
only (bn)
2015 119.65 106.06 13.59
2014 160.96 124.25 36.71
2013 192.14 153.32 38.82
2012 143.74 124.62 19.12
2011 75.98 52.51 23.47
2010 130.14 112.41 17.73
2009 136.89 78.90 57.99
2008 29.89 17.58 12.31
2007 107.39 85.36 22.03
2006 78.73 61.41 17.32

Note: includes TARP/TALF & FDIC insured issuance

 

The question posed to the “Best and the Brightest” early this morning was prefaced with the following:

“Good morning and Happy Thursday is Friday for me! I will be taking my annual block leave beginning tomorrow morning and returning to my corner desk on Tuesday, September 6th.  It would seem summer vacations are now on the docket for the remainder of the month. August all-in IG Corporate plus SSA issuance managed to break thru the $100b mark for the first time in history.  We currently stand at $104.75b.  WTD issuance has dropped off measurably to $8.44b thus far for IG Corporate only prints. Before I leave there are over 3,000 readers of the “QC” interested in knowing your thoughts and numbers for the remainder of August as well as your projections for September issuance.


This week we priced $8.698b of all-in IG Corporate and SSA issuance. IG Corps were $8.448b or only 60% of this week’s syndicate midpoint average forecast calling for $14.09b.

Here are this week’s IG Corporate-only key primary market driver averages entering today’s Thursday session:

 

  • NICS:  <4.27> bps
  • Oversubscription Rates: 4.26x
  • Tenors:  11.73 years
  • Tranche Sizes: $603mm

 

Week-on-week demand for IG corporate credit primary paper strengthened versus last week posting an average bid-to-cover rate of 4.26x vs. 3.56x.  Average NICs tightened 6.10 bps to an average negative <4.27> bps vs. last week’s +1.83 bps.  Average tranche sizes decreased to $603mm per issue vs. $735mm. Average tenors extended by an average 2.56 years to 11.73 years against last week’s 9.17 years.

Week-on-week, BAML’s IG Master Index is 3 bps tighter or +142 vs. last Friday’s +145 close.  Spreads across the four IG asset classes tightened 2.50 bps to 30.75 vs. 33.25. Looking at the 19 major industry sectors, spreads tightened 1.53 bps to an average 39.42 bps off their post-Crisis lows versus last Friday’s 40.95 bps close.               

Finally, what are YOUR thoughts and number for the remainder of August and separately for September IG issuance?

Thank you as always in advance.  Let’s give the readership a nice read to close out the summer and to prepare for the stretch run.
Best wishes to you and yours thru Labor Day! –Ron”

 

……..……and here are their formidable responses:

(Remainder of this section exclusive to distribution list recipients)

 

From Quig-litz to Stiglitz

This morning Bloomberg TV featured an interview with Columbia University economist and professor as well as Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz, who expressed his opinion that if the Euro Zone continues on its current dysfunctional path, it should split up! It’s gotten lots of air time, coverage and traction.  He referred to such a split as an “amicable divorce” with “two or three different currency zones.”  I watched it and had two comments to make.  The first was that Mr. Stiglitz looks like guitarist Joe Walsh might look when the latter turns 75 with a beard.  Then I found out that Stiglitz is 73 while Joe Walsh is 65.  I guess all those lost years kept Joe W. young at heart and with age.  Anyway, the other comment  I made was “hey I wrote about the EU splitting into two zones with two currencies a long time ago.”  I then went searching thru prior “QC’s to find it.  Here it is in its entirety written and distributed to you, if you were onboard the “QC” on January 27th, 2015 you’ll have on your desktops. (more…)

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