Browsing articles tagged with "service-disabled veteran broker dealer Archives - Mischler Financial Group"
IG Corporate Spreads Widen as Clinton-Trump Spread Tightens
November 2016      Debt Market Commentary   

Quigley’s Corner 11.03.16 : IG Corporate Spreads Widen as Presidential Election Spread Narrows

 

Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap  : Gaming Spreads as Presidential Polls Yield Uncertainty

Global Market Recap

BOE Rate Decision Talking Points

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and October

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

New Issues Priced

Indexes and New Issue Volume

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending October 26th  

Investment Grade Credit Spreads (by Rating/Industry)

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

Tomorrow’s Calendar

 

With only five days detached from what could be the single most pivotal U.S. Presidential election in our nation’s history, definitely the most contentious, the slow pace of our IG DCM reflects just how critical this election is to the world.  4 IG Corporate issuers priced 5 tranches between them totaling only $1.85b.  The IG Corporate WTD total is now only 42% of this week’s syndicate midpoint average forecast or $10.791b vs. $25.13b.

 

Global Market Recap

 

  • S. Treasuries – USTs & European bonds closed mixed & steeper. JGB’s were closed.
  • Stocks – S&P & NASDAQ posted their 8th losing session in a row.
  • Overseas Stocks – Europe & Asia closed mixed.
  • Economic – Today’s U.S. data summed up the economic recovery: Some good & some bad.
  • Currencies – 3rd losing session in a row for DXY Index. Big rally for the Pound.
  • Commodities – How low can crude oil go? Gold gave back some of its recent gains.
  • CDX IG: -0.28 to 79.69
  • CDX HY: -0.51 to 431.75
  • CDX EM: -2.06 to 251.58

CDX spreads mover wider after 3pm

*CDX levels are as of 3:30PM ET today.

-Tony Farren

 

BOE Rate Decision Talking Points

 

  • BOE keeps benchmark interest rate at 0.25%; vote 9-0.
  • Keeps gilt-purchase program at £435 bn; vote 9-0.
  • Keeps corporate-bond plan at £10 bn; vote 9-0.
  • MPC drops signal that another rate cut likely this year.
  • Policy can respond “in either direction” to outlook change.
  • Persistent uncertainty on EU deal to weigh on U.K. Economy.
  • Says MPC has limited tolerance for above-target inflation.
  • Sees inflation breaching 2% target in Q2 2017.
  • Sees inflation staying above 2% to end of forecast period.
  • Raises 2017 CPI forecast to 2.7% vs. 2%; 2018 to 2.7% vs. 2.4%.
  • Says medium-term slowdown due to CPI squeeze on consumers.
  • Sees 4Q GDP at 0.4%, raises 2016 forecast to 2.2%.
  • Raises 2017 GDP to 1.4% vs. 0.8%; cuts 2018 to 1.5% vs. 1.8%.
  • Says near-term outlook stronger, medium-term weaker.
  • GBP impact on CPI temporary, policy offset may have costs.
  • GBP impact on CPI “adversely affected” MPC trade-off.

 

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

 

  • The average spread compression from IPTs thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 5 IG Corporate-only new issues that displayed price evolution was 22.20 bps.
  • BAML’s IG Master Index widened 1 bp to +140 vs. +139.  +106 represents the post-Crisis low dating back to July 2007.
  • Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS widened 1 bps to +135 from +134.  The “LUACOAS” wide since 2012 is +215. The tight is +135.
  • Standard & Poor’s Global Fixed Income Research widened 2 bps to +185 vs. +183.  The +140 reached on July 30th 2014 represents the post-Crisis low.
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $17.5b on Wednesday versus $19.8b Tuesday and $18.9b the previous Wednesday.
  • The 10-DMA stands at $16.9b.

 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and October

 

IG Corporate New Issuance This Week
10/31-11/04
vs. Current
WTD – $10.791b
November 2016 vs. Current
MTD – $6.466b
Low-End Avg. $24.26b 44.48% $90.70b 7.13%
Midpoint Avg. $25.13b 42.94% $92.11b 7.02%
High-End Avg. $26.00b 41.50% $93.52b 6.91%
The Low $15b 71.94% $71b 9.11%
The High $35b 30.83% $110b 5.88%

 

Below please find my synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary from today’s debt capital markets, including the investment grade corporate bond data drill down as seen from my seat here in Syndicate, Sales and DCM.

Have a great evening!
Ron Quigley, Managing Director and Head of Fixed Income Syndicate

 

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

Here’s a review of this week’s key primary market driver averages for IG Corporates only through Wednesday’s session followed by the averages over the prior four weeks:

KEY IG CORPORATE
NEW ISSUE DRIVERS
MON.
10/31
TUES.
11/01
WED.
11/02
AVERAGES
WEEK 10/24
AVERAGES
WEEK 10/17
AVERAGES
WEEK 10/10
AVERAGES
WEEK 10/03
New Issue Concessions 0.50 bps <2.29> bps 3 bps <0.51> bps 3.31 bps 1.87 bps 4.36 bps
Oversubscription Rates 2.99x 2.90x 2.73x 2.61x 3.05x 3.28x 4.20x
Tenors 8.39 yrs 11.93 yrs 11.30 yrs 7.77 yrs 9.16 yrs 11.51 yrs 12.16 yrs
Tranche Sizes $721mm $379mm $393mm $818mm $1,137mm $640mm $523mm
Avg. Spd. Compression
IPTs to Launch
<14.21> bps <17.71> bps <22.50> bps <17.42> bps      

 

New Issues Priced

Today’s recap of visitors to our IG dollar Corporate and SSA DCM:

For ratings I use the better two of Moody’s, S&P or Fitch.

 

IG

Issuer Ratings Coupon Maturity Size IPTs GUIDANCE LAUNCH PRICED LEADS
Johns Hopkins University Aa3/AA- 3.837% 5/15/2046 500 +135a N/A +123 +123 JEFF/JPM
Principal Finc’l. Group Inc. Baa1/BBB+ 3.10% 11/15/2026 350 +160a +130-135 +130 +130 CITI/CS/HSBC
Principal Finc’l. Group Inc. Baa1/BBB+ 4.30% 11/15/2046 300 +200a +170-175 +170 +170 CITI/CS/HSBC
PSE&G Baa2/BBB 1.60% 11/15/2019 400 +85-90 +70a (+/-2) +68 +68 BARC/JPM/RBC
PSE&G Baa2/BBB 2.00% 11/15/2021 300 +95-100 +80a (+/-2) +78 +78 BARC/JPM/RBC

 

Indexes and New Issue Volume

Please note that Index levels are as of 4:45pm ET.

Index Open Current Change  
LUACOAS 1.35 1.35 0  
IG27 79.977 80.702 0.725
HV27 178.86 179.72 0.86
VIX 19.32 22.08 2.76  
S&P 2,097 2,088 <9>
DOW 17,959 17,930 <29>  
 

USD

 

IG Corporates

 

USD

 

Total IG (+SSA)

DAY: $1.85 bn DAY: $1.85 bn
WTD: $10.791 bn WTD: $10.791 bn
MTD: $6.466 bn MTD: $6.466 bn
YTD: $1,175.247 bn YTD: $1,505.131 bn

 

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending October 26th  

     

  • For the week ended October 26th, Lipper U.S. Fund Flows reported an inflow of $1.701b into Corporate Investment Grade Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $42.787b) and a net outflow of $48.26m from High Yield Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $11.070b).
  • Over the same period, Lipper reported a net inflow of $290.611m into Loan Participation Funds (2016 YTD net outflow of $1.665b).
  • Emerging Market debt funds reported a net inflow of $390.9m (2016 YTD inflow of $7.723b).

 

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

The 10-day IG spread performance vs. the T10 across the ratings spectrum and how IG compared versus high yield:

Spreads across the four IG asset classes are an average 31.75 bps wider versus their post-Crisis lows!

 

ASSET CLASS 11/02 11/01 10/31 10/28 10/27 10/26 10/25 10/24 10/21 10/20 1-Day Change 10-Day Trend PC
low
IG Avg. 140 139 138 137 136 136 135 135 135 135 +1 +5 106
“AAA” 83 82 82 80 80 80 78 78 77 76 +1 +7 50
“AA” 87 86 86 85 85 84 83 83 83 83 +1 +4 63
“A” 112 111 111 110 109 109 108 108 108 108 +1 +4 81
“BBB” 181 180 178 176 175 176 175 174 175 174 +1 +7 142
IG vs. HY 375 366 353 339 333 330 325 325 327 327 +9 +48 228

 

IG Credit Spreads by Industry

…….and a snapshot of the major investment grade sector credit spreads for the past ten sessions:  (more…)

Draghi Talk; Mischler Debt Market Comment via Quigley’s Corner
October 2016      Debt Market Commentary   

Quigley’s Corner 10.20.16- Draghi Talk; The BIGGEST Oct in IG Bond History

 

Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap 

Global Market Recap

La Dolce Vita – Draghi Talks About “The Good Life” in the EU (?!)

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and October

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors and Sizes

New Issues Priced

Indexes and New Issue Volume

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending October 19th  

Investment Grade Corporate Debt Credit Spreads (by Rating/Industry)

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

Tomorrow’s Calendar

 

Believe it or not, we very quietly slid into 9th place among the top 10 highest all-in IG issuance weeks.  All-in IG issuance combines both IG Corporates and SSA deals.  Generally speaking,  SSA weekly issuance typically accounts for about 20%-25% of all-in weekly volume, give or take.  This week, however, thanks to The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s $17.5b 3-part inaugural deal, EIB’s $4.5b 3yr and today’s $4.25b IBRD two-part 3s and 10s, SSA issuance has thus far eclipsed IG Corporates 50.36% vs. 49.64%.

On the day, 3 IG Corporates priced 3 deals totaling $1.4b bringing the WTD total to $28.34b vs. $23.17b or 22% above this week’s syndicate midpoint average estimate. SSA added IBRD $4.25b two-part 3s & 10s bringing the all-in IG day total to 4 issuers, 5 tranches and $5.65b.  The all-in MTD total is now $108.145b.  This month is on pace to finish as the most prolific October in IG history.

 

Global Market Recap

 

  • U.S. Treasuries – USTs closed mixed, little changed & flatter.
  • Overseas Bonds – Long end Bunds had a strong session. JGB’s were little changed.
  • 3mth Libor – Set at the highest yield since May 2009 (0.88178%).
  • Stocks – U.S. small losses (3:15pm) Europe rallied after Draghi. Nikkei well bid.
  • Economic – U.S. data fine. Germany PPI remained negative. U.K. retail sales weaker.
  • Currencies – Strong day for the USD outperforming all of the Big 5.
  • Commodities – Crude hit hard after rallying to a 15-month high yesterday.
  • CDX IG: +0.15 to 73.87
  • CDX HY: +0.66 to 398.69
  • CDX EM: -2.93 to 234.07

*CDX levels are as of 3:30PM ET today.

-Tony Farren

 

La Dolce Vita – Draghi Talks About “The Good Life” in the EU…..N-O-T!  

ECB Head Mario Draghi announced that the ECB will not stop QE without first tapering it fortifying the opinion that it will extend well beyond March 2017. Draghi said, “an abrupt ending to bond purchases is unlikely” and “it is not present in anybody’s mind.”

Here are all the pertinent talking points from today’s short news conference with ECB President Mario Draghi:

  • The ECB left its benchmark rates unchanged as expected.
  • ECB’s Main Refinancing Rate was left unchanged at 0.0% as expected.
  • The ECB’s Deposit Facility Rate persisted at -.40% ……as expected.
  • ECB’s Marginal Lending Facility Rate continued at 0.25% also as expected.
  • ECB’s Asset Purchase Target also remained unchanged at €80 bln per month.
  • Draghi sees rates at present or lower level for extended period.
  • Sees rates at present, lower level well past QE horizon.
  • Says QE will run through March 2017 or beyond if needed.
  • QE will run until inflation path is consistent with goal.
  • ECB to preserve stimulus needed to raise inflation.
  • ECB policy ensures very favorable conditions.
  • ECB ready to act using all instruments within mandate.
  • December assessment will benefit from new forecasts.
  • Council will review committee work on QE in December.
  • Baseline remains subject to downside risks.
  • Sees moderate economic growth at steady pace.
  • No signs of convincing upward trend in core inflation.
  • Sees gradual rise in inflation.
  • Inflation rates rising further in 2017, 2018.
  • Economy resilient to global, political uncertainty.
  • Domestic demand supported by policy pass-through.
  • Investment supported by favorable financing conditions.
  • Low oil prices, job gains provide support for consumers.
  • Sluggish pace of reforms also a risk.
  • Loan dynamics follow path of gradual recovery.
  • ECB measures significantly helping credit.

 

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

 

  • The average spread compression from IPTs thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 3 IG Corporate-only new issues was 21.83 bps.
  • BAML’s IG Master Index tightened 1 bp to +135 vs. +136.  +106 represents the post-Crisis low dating back to July 2007.
  • Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS tightened 1 bp to +129 vs.  +130.  The “LUACOAS” wide since 2012 is +215. The tight is +135.
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $18.1b on Wednesday versus $17.3b Tuesday and $16.7b the previous Wednesday.
  • The 10-DMA stands at $15.8b.

 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and October

 

IG Corporate New Issuance This Week
10/17-10/21
vs. Current
WTD – $28.34b
October 2016 vs. Current
MTD – $64.795b
Low-End Avg. $22.30b 127.09% $87.83b 73.77%
Midpoint Avg. $23.17b 122.31% $88.59b 73.14%
High-End Avg. $24.04b 117.89% $89.35b 72.52%
The Low $15b 188.93% $75b 86.39%
The High $30b 94.47% $125b 51.836%

 

Have a great evening!
Ron Quigley, Managing Director and Head of Fixed Income Syndicate

Below please find my synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary from today’s debt capital markets, including the investment grade corporate bond data drill down as seen from my seat here in Syndicate, Sales and DCM.

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors and Sizes

 

Here’s a review of this week’s key primary market driver averages for IG Corporates only through Wednesday’s session followed by the averages over the prior four weeks:

KEY IG CORPORATE
NEW ISSUE DRIVERS
MON.
10/17
TUES.
10/18
WED.
10/19
AVERAGES
WEEK 10/10
AVERAGES
WEEK 10/03
AVERAGES
WEEK 9/26
AVERAGES
WEEK 9/19
New Issue Concessions 6.62 bps 3.17 bps 1.71 1.87 bps 4.36 bps 2.71 bps 0.69 bps
Oversubscription Rates 2.11x 2.91x 2.86x 3.28x 4.20x 3.52x 3.23x
Tenors 6.06 yrs 10.71 yrs 12 yrs 11.51 yrs 12.16 yrs 10.51 yrs 9.36 yrs
Tranche Sizes $1,043mm $1,050mm $1,249mm $640mm $523mm $646mm $964mm

 

Indexes and New Issue Volume

 

Index Open Current Change  
LUACOAS 1.30 1.29 <0.01>  
IG27 73.725 73.938 0.213
HV27 162.135 161.645 <0.49>
VIX 14.41 13.75 <0.66>  
S&P 2,144 2,141 <3>
DOW 18,202 18,162 <40>  
 

USD

 

IG Corporates

 

USD

 

Total IG (+ SSA)

DAY: $1.40 bn DAY: $5.65 bn
WTD: $28.34 bn WTD: $57.09 bn
MTD: $64.795 bn MTD: $108.145 bn
YTD: $1,139.531 bn YTD: $1,463.365 bn

 

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending October 19th   (more…)