Browsing articles tagged with " debt capital markets"
EU & US Closer to Resolving Trade Tariff Tit-for-Tat; Debt Capital Markets Comment
July 2018      Debt Market Commentary, Recent Deals   

Quigley’s Corner 07.25.18 – EU & US Closer to Resolving Trade Tariff Tit-for-Tat

Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap – Breaking News: Trump & Juncker Stymie Trade War Rhetoric

Today’s IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points – Mischler in the Selling Group for AT&T’s $25 par Global Notes Transaction

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates For This Week and July

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

New Issues Priced

Indexes and New Issue Volume              

Global Market Recap

Lipper Report/Fund Flows-Week of July 18

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

IG Credit Spreads by Industry

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline Highlights – $463.96 Billion in Cumulative Enterprise Value

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

UST Resistance/Support Table

Tomorrow’s Calendar

The “QC” Geopolitical Risk Monitor

Below is the opening extract from Quigley’s Corner aka “QC”  Wednesday,  July 25, 2018  edition distributed via email to institutional investment managers and Fortune Treasury clients of Mischler Financial Group, the investment industry’s oldest minority broker-dealer owned and operated by Service-Disabled Veterans.

Cited by Wall Street Letter in each of 2014, 2015 and 2016 for “Best Research / Broker-Dealer”, the QC is one of three distinctive market comment pieces produced by Mischler Financial Group. The QC is a daily synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary as seen from the perch of our primary debt capital markets desk and includes a comprehensive “deep dive” with optics on the day’s investment grade corporate debt new issuance and secondary market data encompassing among other items, comparables, investment grade credit spreads, new issue activity, secondary market most active issues, and upcoming pipeline. 

To receive Quigley’s Corner, please email: rquigley@mischlerfinancial.com or via phone 203.276.6646 

 

Breaking News: Trump & Juncker Stymie Trade War Rhetoric

us-eu trade trade tariff dispute resolution

Amidst global trade tariff fears, U.S. President Trump met with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker in Washington to deliver what will hopefully lead to a resolution to the simmering ‘trade tarrif war’ between the US and the EU. Trump said today’s meeting at the White House “marks a new phase of close friendship and close trade relations, global security and jointly fighting against global terrorism.” President Trump further stated, “The U.S. and EU represent $838bn in trade and 50%+ of global trade. The U.S. and EU enjoy a $1 trillion bilateral trade relationship which is the largest in the world.” Trump and Juncker purportedly agreed to work toward “zero” trade tariff schemes, “zero” non-tariff barriers, and “zero” subsidies on non-auto goods. To reduce barriers in trade, soybeans foremost among them, it was reported the EU will start “almost immediately” to buy “vast amounts” of soybeans, helping US Midwest farmers and “resulting in greater prosperity for both the U.S. and EU, while making trade more fair and reciprocal.” The EU’s Juncker purportedly agreed to import “much more” liquefied natural gas and the U.S. agreed to make it easier for the EU to do so. Both leaders are said to have agreed to launch a dialogue to trade barriers, bureaucratic obstacles and to slash costs. There remain negotiations going forward, specifically on auto tariffs- but they both are said to have agreed to work toward a rapid resolution.

Today the IG dollar DCM hosted 6 issuers across 7 tranches totaling $5.15b.  The SSA space was quiet.

Here’s a look at the WTD and MTD IG Corporate new issue volume as measured against syndicate desk estimates:

  • The IG Corporate WTD total is 59.73% of this week’s syndicate midpoint average forecast or $12.125b vs. $20.30b.
  • MTD we’ve priced 71.05% of the syndicate forecast for July IG Corporate new issuance or $57.936b vs. $81.54b.
  • There are now 15 issuers in the IG credit pipeline.                                 

Today’s IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points – Mischler in the Selling Group for AT&T’s $25 par Global Notes Transaction

 

  • Mischler Financial was honored to be a member of the Selling Group on today’s AT&T $25 par Global Notes transaction due 8/01/2067 (callable 8/01/2023). The deal from NYSE:ATT was upsized to $750mm from $250mm.
  • A notable rarity: Today’s Burlington Northern Santa Fe LLC 30-year Senior notes new issue was launched at T+112.5 which was 2.5bps tighter than the tightest side of +120 “area” (+/-5) Guidance.
  • The average spread compression from IPTs and/or guidance thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 7 IG Corporate and Preferredonly new issues was <20.68> bps.
  • Not counting the Preferred and only counting the 6 IG Corporates, IPTs to the launch was <23.08>.
  • BAML’s IG Master Index tightened 1 bp to +120 vs. +121. (It’s post-Crisis low is +90 set on 2/01).
  • Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS tightened 2 bps to 1.13 vs. 1.15. (1.24 represents the high on 6/04; 0.85 is its post-Crisis low set on 1/30).
  • Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread was unchanged at +153. (+125 represents its post-Crisis low set 2/02).
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $21.4b on Tuesday versus $15.4b on Wednesday and $18.3b the previous Tuesday.
  • The 10-DMA stands at $16.9b.

 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates For This Week and July

 

IG Corporate New Issuance This Week
7/23-7/27
vs. Current
WTD – $12.125b
July 2018 vs. Current
MTD – $57.936b
Low-End Avg. $18.60b 65.19% $81.04b 71.49%
Midpoint Avg. $20.30b 59.73% $81.54b 71.05%
High-End Avg. $22.00b 55.11% $82.04b 70.62%
The High $10b 121.25% $60b 96.56%
The Low $30b 40.42% $100b 57.94%

 

Below please find a synopsis of everything Syndicate & Secondary as seen from the perch of Mischler Financial Group’s Investment Grade Capital Markets Desk.

 

Have a great evening!
Ron Quigley, Managing Director, Head of Fixed Income Syndicate

 

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

 

Here’s a review of this week’s five key primary market driver averages for IG Corporates only through Tuesday’s session followed by the averages over the prior six weeks:

KEY IG CORPORATE
NEW ISSUE DRIVERS
MON.
7/23
TUES.
7/24
AVERAGES
WEEK 7/16
AVERAGES
WEEK 7/09
AVERAGES
WEEK 7/02
AVERAGES
WEEK 6/25
AVERAGES
WEEK 6/18
AVERAGES
WEEK 6/11
New Issue Concessions 2.64 bps 1.50 bps 3.90 bps 3.45 bps No Issuance 9.87 bps +7.50 bps +4.02 bps
Oversubscription Rates 3.32x 2.47x 2.33x 2.31x No Issuance 2.03x 2.59x 2.89x
Tenors 7.56 yrs 5.52 yrs 7.73 yrs 9.24 yrs No Issuance 8.99 yrs 11.08 yrs 11.10 yrs
Tranche Sizes $592mm $413mm $1,031mm $693mm No Issuance $504mm $1,134mm $724mm
Avg. Spd. Compression
IPTs to Launch
<15.39> bps <13.00> bps <13.79> bps <13.39> bps No Issuance <6.58> bps <13.11> bps <13.76> bps

 

New Issues Priced

Today’s recap of visitors to our IG dollar Corporate and SSA DCM:

For ratings I use the better two of Moody’s, S&P or Fitch.

 

IG

Issuer Ratings Coupon Maturity Size IPTs GUIDANCE LAUNCH PRICED LEADS
AT&T Inc. Baa2/BBB 5.625% 8/01/2067 750 5.625%-5.75%
5.6875%a
5.625%  the # 5.625% $25 Pfd
Global Notes
BAML/MS/WFSJPM/RBC/UBS
Aviation Capital Group LLC A-/BBB+ FRN 7/30/2021 300 3mL+95-100
3mL+97.5a
+70a (+/-3) 3mL+67 3mL+67 BARC/BNPP/GS/JPM/MIZ
Aviation Capital Group LLC A-/BBB+ 4.125% 8/01/2025 500 +170a +150a (+/-5) +145 +145 BARC/BNPP/GS/JPM/MIZ
Burlington Northern
Santa Fe
A3/A+ 4.15% 12/15/2048 750 +135a +120a (+/-5) +112.5 +112.5 JPM/MS/WFS (a)
BAML/CITI/GS (p)
Nationwide Building Society Baa1/A 4.363% 6NC5 F-t-F
8/01/2024
1,000 +170a +160a (+/-5) +155 +155
Back-end:
3mL+139.2
BAML/BARC/CITI/JPM/
POSCO Baa1/BBB+ 4.00% 8/01/2023 500 +155a +130-135/+132.5a +130 +130 BAML/BNPP/HSBC/STAN
Temasek Financial (I) Ltd. Aaa/AAA 3.625% 8/01/2028 1,350 REV IPTs: +80a
+90-95/+92.5a
+75a (+/-3) +72 +72 BAML/CITI/HSBC/MS

               

Indexes and New Issue Volume              

Countable IG volume includes maturities of 18-months and out and IG-rated Preferreds.

*Denotes new high or low.

                                                                                             

Index Open Current Change
IG30 60.928 59.219 <1.709>
VIX 12.41 12.29 <0.12>
CT10 2.949% 2.975% 0.026
S&P 2,820 2,846 26  
DOW 25,241 25,414 173
Nasdaq 7,841 7,932 91
OIL 68.52 69.26 0.74  
GOLD 1,224.52 1,231.63 7.11  
 

USD

 

IG Corporates

 

USD

 

Total (IG + SSA)

DAY: $5.15 bn DAY: $5.15 bn
WTD: $12.125 bn WTD: $14.125 bn
MTD: $57.936 bn MTD: $73.436 bn
YTD: $759.129 bn YTD: $939.744 bn

 

Global Market Recap

 

  • USTs: Sold off late on news of U.S.-EU trade agreement.
  • Overseas 10-year: Bought globally ex Switz., NZ and Sweden.
  • SOFR: +0.03 to 1.90 vs. 1.87.
  • 3mth Libor: -0.001 to 2.334 vs. 2.335.
  • Overseas Stocks: U.S., Nikkei and HS rally; Core EU and U.K. sold off.
  • Currencies: DXY Index -0.416 to 94.197 vs. 94.613.
  • CDX HY: -5.847 to 329.940 vs. 335.787.
  • CDX EM: -8.068 to 165.647 vs. 173.715.

*Index levels are as of 5:00PM ET today.

2018 Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending July 11th        

     

  • For the week ended July 11th, Lipper U.S. Fund Flows reported a net inflow of $2.021b into Corporate Investment Grade Funds (2018 YTD net inflow of $52.143b) and a net inflow of $260.016 into High Yield Funds (2018 YTD net outflow of $18.217b).
  • Over the same period, Lipper reported a net inflow of $358.528m into Loan Participation Funds (2018 YTD net inflow of $8.847b).
  • Emerging Market debt funds reported a net inflow of $320.443m (2018 YTD inflow of $1,142b).

 

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

The 10-day IG spread performance vs. the T10 across the ratings spectrum and how IG compared versus high yield:

Spreads across the four IG asset classes are 22.75 bps wider versus their new post-Crisis lows.

 

ASSET CLASS 7/24 7/23 7/20 7/19 7/18 7/17 7/16 7/13 7/12 7/11 1-Day Change 10-Day Trend PC
low
IG Avg. 120 121 122 123 123 123 123 124 125 125 <1> <5> 90 (2/01/18)
“AAA” 59 61 62 62 62 62 62 63 63 64 <2> <5> 48 (2/02/18)
“AA” 71 72 73 73 73 74 74 74 75 75 <1> <4> 51 (2/02/18)
“A” 96 98 98 99 99 99 99 100 100 101 <2> <5> 71 (2/01/18)
“BBB” 150 152 153 154 154 154 154 156 156 157 <2> <7> 115 (2/02/18)
IG vs. HY 227 229 233 236 233 235 236 238 236 241 <2> <14> 222 (5/15/18)

 

IG Credit Spreads by Industry

…….and a snapshot of the major investment grade sector credit spreads for the past ten sessions:

Spreads across the major industry sectors are an average 29.84 bps wider versus their post-Crisis lows.

INDUSTRY 7/24 7/23 7/20 7/19 7/18 7/17 7/16 7/13 7/12 7/11 1-Day Change 10-Day Trend PC
low
Automotive 108 109 109 110 110 111 111 112 112 114 <1> <6> 67
Banking 108 109 110 111 111 111 111 112 112 113 <1> <5> 75 (2/02/18)
Basic Industry 149 150 152 153 152 153 153 155 155 156 <1> <7> 110 (2/02/2018)
Cap Goods 97 99 100 100 101 101 101 101 101 102 <2> <5> 75 (1/12/18)
Cons. Prod. 107 110 110 111 111 111 111 112 113 114 <3> <7> 78 (2/01/18)
Energy 150 151 153 155 154 155 155 156 157 158 <1> <8> 115 (2/02/18)
Financials 126 127 128 129 129 130 130 131 132 132 <1> <6> 97
Healthcare 104 105 106 106 106 106 107 107 108 109 <1> <5> 77 (2/02/2018)
Industrials 122 124 125 126 125 126 126 127 127 128 <2> <6> 93 (2/02/18)
Insurance 133 134 135 136 136 136 136 137 137 138 <1> <5> 100 (2/02/18)
Leisure 115 116 116 117 117 117 118 118 119 119 <1> <4> 98 (2/01/18)
Media 155 158 159 159 159 159 159 161 162 163 <3> <8> 113
Real Estate 127 129 129 130 130 130 131 131 132 132 <2> <5> 100 (2/01/18)
Retail 108 110 111 111 111 112 111 112 112 114 <2> <6> 82 (2/02/18)
Services 113 114 114 115 115 116 115 116 116 117 <1> <4> 94  (1/31/18)
Technology 89 91 91 92 91 92 92 93 94 94 <2> <5> 71 (2/02/18)
Telecom 160 163 165 165 165 165 164 165 166 167 <3> <7> 122
Transportation 125 127 128 129 129 129 129 130 131 131 <2> <6> 91 (2/02/2018)
Utility 125 126 127 128 128 128 128 130 130 131 <1> <6> 96 (2/02/2018)

                             

New Issue Pipeline

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IG Debt Market Recap: Iran Deal Scuttled; Dynamite Day for General Dynamics
May 2018      Debt Market Commentary   

Quigley’s Corner 05.08.18: Iran Deal Scuttled; IG Debt Market Recap: Dynamite Deal Day for General Dynamics  

Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap – Big Time Volume But Stuck at
“The Number Again. NYSE:GD, NYSE:VZ

Today’s IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates For This Week and May

Vaya Con Dios to Bloomberg Bob, a Great Man and a Dear Friend

Global Market Recap

The “QC” Geopolitical Risk Monitor

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

New Issues Priced

Indexes and New Issue Volume

2018 Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending May 2nd      

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

IG Credit Spreads by Industry

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

Tomorrow’s Calendar

 

Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap – Big Time Volume But Stuck at“The Number Again. NYSE:GD, NYSE:VZ
Today the IG dollar DCM hosted 7 issuers across 18 tranches totalling $15.539b. 48.3% of that total came in the form of the General Dynamics (NYSE:GD) 7-part transaction –which totalled $7.5b, and runner-up award to Verizon Communications (NYSE:VZ), which brought $1.788b to the corporate treasury. The SSA space was inactive again. Although the deals are clearing for issuers 10 of today’s 17 IG Corporate tranches were guided “at the number!”  Something to keep an eye on. Here’s a look at the WTD and MTD IG Corporate new issue volume as measured against syndicate desk estimates:

  • The IG Corporate WTD total is 74.35% of this week’s syndicate midpoint average forecast or $23.389b vs. $31.46b.
  • MTD we’ve priced 27.64% of the syndicate forecast for April IG Corporate new issuance or $37.264b vs. $134.84b.
  • There are now 9 issuers in the IG credit pipeline.

Today’s IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

  • The average spread compression from IPTs and/or guidance thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 17 IG Corporate-only new issues was <11.09> bps.
  • BAML’s IG Master Index was unchanged at +117. (It’s post-Crisis low is +90 set on 2/01).
  • Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS was unchanged at +1.12.  (0.85 is its post-Crisis low set on 1/30).
  • Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread was unchanged at +149. (+125 represents its post-Crisis low set 2/02).
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $14.1b on Monday versus $13.9b on Friday and $20.9b the previous Monday.
  • The 10-DMA stands at $18.1b. 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates For This Week and May

 

IG Corporate New Issuance This Week
5/07-5/11
vs. Current
WTD – $23.389b
May 2018 vs. Current
MTD – $37.264b
Low-End Avg. $30.83b 75.86% $133.64b 27.88%
Midpoint Avg. $31.46b 74.35% $134.84b 27.64%
High-End Avg. $32.08b 72.91% $136.04b 27.39%
The High $20b 116.945% $110b 33.88%
The Low $40b 58.47% $150b 24.84%

 bloomberg

Vaya Con Dios to Bloomberg Bob, a Great Man and a Dear Friend

You have all read in the QC about how I frequently turn the lights off and lock the door behind me here at our nation’s oldest Service Disabled Veteran owned & operated broker-dealer. We always leave it on the floor, driven by a desire to be the best we can be and to always be allegiant to our value-added reputation as providing best in class debt capital market coverage and distribution.  It’s all about delivering high-quality work for our issuers and joint leads while building a sustainable and lasting company. We take great pride in that for we know that one day all we ever really take with us is our reputation.  It’s also what people will most remember us by.  Well, this evening, I got your attention with Bloomberg’s logo above but it’s about the manifestation of a mandate at a world-class company that has a culture unique to itself.  If one were to do a case study of corporate cultures, the names, IBM, GE, Apple, Disney and Bloomberg come to mind.  Each company has its family of employees while others are legendary for their work environments and commitment to make “lifers” out of their personnel. Tonight’s story is about Bloomberg’s commitment to veterans and a tribute/send-off to one veteran, in particular, Bob Elson who many of my 3,501 readers have also come to know.

This is not a deal drill-down day, during which I typically help promote an issuer’s diversity mandate and often more specifically, our veteran and service-disabled veteran certification. So, instead of going granular re General Dynamics’ massive debt issuance, tonight I’ve decided to do something different. Tonight I want to pay tribute to a business news industry legend.

I remember working at Merrill when I sat next to Mac Barnes on our trading floor. Mac was a legendary original Bloomberg programmer and techno-wizard who started with Michael Bloomberg way back when. He was also a super good guy.  Michael had been offered a nascent technology position by Merrill well before tech was remotely considered en vogue. In fact, it was anything but. It meant “the writing was on the wall.”  What emerged from that experiment is the Bloomberg we know today.  When the going gets tough, the tough get going, as they say.  Michael Bloomberg never looked back. His net worth is, as of today $51.2b………... Quite an achievement!

Mike Bloomberg may be a multi-billionaire, but he also knows that mandates at any company start from the top down.  Which brings me to veterans at Bloomberg.

In Mike’s own words, “Veterans have just the kind of leadership, discipline, and work ethic you need to launch a successful business and create jobs and we’re determined to help more veterans succeed.” The businessman, engineer, author, politician and philanthropist knows that both the military and Bloomberg embody a common spirit: the mission comes first. Teamwork. Communication. Adaptability. Integrity. Those are just some of the skills and characteristics that transfer well from military service to a career at Bloomberg.  Mike upped his game by recruiting veterans in software development, sales, data analysis, customer service and network support as well as in the newsroom to showcase the places at his company where veterans should look to work. He knew early on those employees who have served or currently serve in the military, military families and supporters who promote and maintain Bloomberg as a military-friendly work environment stay connected through the Bloomberg Military & Veterans Community. We here at Mischler embrace and endorse that kind of thinking.

bob-elson-bloomberg lp

Bob Elson, US Army Spec 5; Bloomberg LP

However, I’d like to go one further by highlighting one of those veterans whose last day is coming at Bloomberg next Tuesday, May 15th – Robert “Bob” Elson formerly the Bob from the now defunct but legendary Ed and Bob Show that was Bloomberg’s First Word new issue team.  I’ve known Bob since he joined Bloomberg and enjoyed our daily rapport.  He is the consummate professional, all about journalistic integrity, checking data sources multiple times before going out with anything on the tapes and a legend on Wall Street. Along with having logged 47 years working in our financial services industry comes a Yoda-like wisdom about and sense of our global financial markets. For all those millennials out there who have logged their first 10 years and are only now starting to see what an interest rate hike looks like, it’s critical to latch onto the knowledge that market professionals such as Bob Elson possess.  It’s invaluable. Bob certainly deserves his reputation as “Bond Salesman to the Stars Since 1971.”

When my Dad passed away last December, while the family gathered at his wake, Bob was the first person to sign in to pay his respects to our family.  That is the kind of person he is and friend he has become.

As I mentioned Bob’s last day will be next Tuesday, May 15th.  I wanted to scribe something in Bob’s honour BEFORE his last day. This way, you can reach out to Bob prior to his departure. Bob has left an indelible mark in the Bloomberg newsroom. I will personally miss his professional expertise, his unmatched experience although I look forward to more frequent lunches as they’ll be easier to come by given our proximity here in Stamford, Connecticut to his home in Westport. The Bloomberg chat room that both Ed and Bob years ago named “Quigmeister” will be a less active one. When in the throes of covering over 120 accounts, running order books and writing relative value and D&I stories I could always rely on Bob’s comic relief that would get me through the realization that I’d once again be sending my “QC” with an obscenely late time stamp. People come and go in this business and the ones you keep around long after are more than just good minds, great journalists, and experienced market professionals. They become friends.

For those who may not have known, Bob also proudly served his nation in Vietnam joining the U.S. Army in 1968. Following basic training at the Fort Eustis installation near Newport News, Virginia, Bob served in the First Infantry Division (The Big Red One) seeing action in Lai Khe, Vietnam. For those who may not know, Lai Khe was probably the most rocketed base camp in Vietnam except for Khe Sanh during the siege. Bob humbly recalls the sign that hung prominently at the camp’s entry that read, “Welcome to Rocket City.” Bob may well have cultivated his keen sense of humour and comic relief from the legendary Bob Hope who visited the base for his Christmas show. Hope greeted the crowd saying “Here we are in Lai Khe. I’ve been here five minutes and I don’t Like Kaye!  Bob was then off to 1st Field Force Headquarters in Nha Trang returning home in 1970 as a Spec 5 having earned a Bronze Star with Oak Leaf Cluster for service.

It is comforting to know that there’s a place like Bloomberg that gave our veteran a home in his later years. I must say, however, I wish it was longer stay though.

To my good friend, journalist and veteran, it is NEVER fun to see someone ride off into the sunset but as they say, old soldiers never die they simply…………and I choose not to finish that quote, folks!

Thank you for your friendship, professionalism, foresight, advice and market wisdom all these years. Having served on no deals today you Bob Elson are the reason why I’m, turning off the lights and locking the front door here at Mischler Financial this evening.  I’d like you and all 3,501 “QC” readers to know that this edition has been my privilege and honour to write.

Vaya Con Dios my friend! Please reach out to Bob Elson on your Bloomberg terminals to give our military veteran and financial services veteran the send-off he truly deserves.

Thank you all and as always, have a great evening!

Below please find a complete synopsis of the day’s debt capital market activity as seen from the perch of the nation’s oldest investment bank / institutional brokerage owned & operated by Service-Disabled Veterans.

Ron Quigley, Managing Director, Head of Fixed Income Syndicate

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Investment Grade Debt New Issuance: FIG Heaven
December 2017      Debt Market Commentary   

Quigley’s Corner 12.18.17  FIG Heaven – Make Reservations Now for January Seating

 

Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap – 2017 Sets Two All-Time Volume Records

Looking Ahead to Potential FIG Issuance in January 2018

Today’s IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates For This Week, December & January 2018

Global Market Recap

The “QC” Geopolitical Risk Monitor

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

Indexes and New Issue Volume              

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending December 13th

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

IG Credit Spreads by Industry

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline Highlights

Rates Trading Lab

Economic Data Releases

Tomorrow’s Calendar 

Below is the opening extract from Quigley’s Corner aka “QC”  Monday December 18 2017 edition distributed via email to institutional investment managers and Fortune Treasury clients of Mischler Financial Group, the investment industry’s oldest minority broker-dealer owned and operated by Service-Disabled Veterans.

Cited by Wall Street Letter in each of 2014, 2015 and 2016 for “Best Research / Broker-Dealer”, the QC is one of three distinctive market comment pieces produced by Mischler Financial Group. The QC is a daily synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary as seen from the perch of our fixed income trading and debt capital markets desk and includes a comprehensive “deep dive” with optics on the day’s investment grade corporate debt new issuance and secondary market data encompassing among other items, comparables, investment grade credit spreads, new issue activity, secondary market most active issues, and upcoming pipeline.

Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap
IG Corporate and SSA new issuance posted another shut-out today.  However, even if we get no new supply for the remainder of this year, 2017 already won out as the highest volume year on record for both IG Corporate and all-in IG Corporate + SSA new issuance.  This year’s IG Corporate total beat last year by $48.138b or 3.75% more while all-in volume beat by $23.595b or 1.45%.  Congratulations to all the issuers, bankers, syndicate desks and accounts that made it possible.

Taking a look at the prior six years, each year’s total volume surpassed the prior in both categories:

Year IG Corporates (bn) IG Corps + SSA (bn)
2017 $1,333.355 $1,648.746
2016 $1,285.217 $1,625.151
2015 $1,268.448 $1,512.838
2014 $1,129.33 $1,367.97
2013 $1,051.19 $1,334.76
2012 $1,025.31 $1,254.33

 

It’ll be tough to do this again next year though as the call is for a 10% reduction in 2018 IG Corporate issuance should the new tax reform bill be signed law and the subsequent repatriation of billions of dollars of offshore funds combining with a new and improved 21% corporate tax.

NAHB Housing was the lone piece of economic data today and it surprised to upside in a big way posting a 74 from 70 expectations and a 69 prior reading. That’s an 18-year high! It’s a strong market for homebuyers with national home prices up about 6% YoY.  With strong labor and an improving economy, the outlook is good for home real estate sales.

Looking Ahead to Potential FIG Issuance in January 2018

Next up, I guess we were all a bit stymied by today’s zero issuance activity. But some good souls out there turned it into an opportunity to get creative and work on things they might otherwise not have the time to. So, without further ado, I decided to re-print (with permission of course) a very interesting and informative piece written by none other than Bob Elson. Many of you with Bloomberg terminals may know Bob.  Most everyone in syndicate does.  For the following piece, Bob did the heavy-lifting on what to expect from the big banks or the U.S. six-pack as we roll into the new year.  Not bad for an old dog who remembers when the T30 14% due 2011 traded at a discount.  Given the aforementioned Oscar lead in who else to better give a shout out than Bob Elson who has been “Bond Salesman to the Stars since 1971?”  They don’t make’em like they used to folks and he/they are a class act.

Take it away Bobby E. –

The Large Banks Have January Maturities, They Have a History of January Issuance and for Some, Strikingly Large 2018 Maturities:

Bank of America has $3b maturing Jan. 11

  • Jan. 17, 2017: priced $6.75b in 4 parts
  • Issued in Dec. 2015, rather than Jan. 2016
  • Jan. 16, 2015: priced $2.5b
  • Jan. 15, 2014: priced $4.5b in 2 parts
  • Jan. 8, 2013: 3 tranche deal totaling $8.25b
  • Jan. 19, 2012: $2.25b 10Y
  • Hasn’t been seen since Sept.
  • Has near $28b of 2018 maturities, by far the largest year in its debt distribution
  • Scheduled to announce earning Jan. 17

Citigroup has near $25b maturing in the new year, the largest in its debt distribution

  • Jan. 4, 2017: priced 3-part deal for $5.25b; this was prior to announcing earnings Jan. 18
  • Jan. 5, 2016: priced $2b 10Y; prior to earnings Jan. 15
  • Jan. 29, 2015: priced $2.5b 3Y after announcing earnings Jan. 15
  • Jan. 3, 2013: priced $1.75b 3Y prior to its Jan. 17 earnings
  • Jan. 19, 2012: priced $1b 30Y following its Jan. 17 earnings release
  • Citi will announce earnings Jan. 16

Goldman Sachs has near $6b due Jan. 18-22

  • Jan. 23, 2017: priced $8b in 3 parts
  • Jan. 20, 2015: priced $5.5b in 3 parts
  • Jan. 28, 2014: priced $2.5b 5Y
  • Jan. 16, 2013: priced $5b in 2 parts
  • Jan. 19, 2012: priced $4.5b 10Y
  • 2018 maturities near $26b, the largest in its debt distribution
  • Earnings scheduled for Jan. 17

JPMorgan has ~$8.7b due Jan. 15-25

  • Jan. 25, 2017: $2.75b priced
  • Jan. 15, 2015: priced $6.25b in 2 parts
  • Jan. 14, 2014: priced $2b Jr Sub
    • Jan. 21, 2014: priced $5.25b in 5 parts
  • Jan. 17, 2013: priced 3 part deal for $6.4b
  • Jan. 13, 2012: priced $3.25b 10Y
  • Has near $27b coming due next year, the largest in its debt distribution
  • Will exit earnings blackout Jan. 12

Morgan Stanley has ~$2b due Dec. 28 and ~$2.1b due Jan. 5

  • Jan. 17, 2017: priced $8.25b in 3 parts
  • Jan. 22, 2016: priced 3-part deal totaling $5.5b
  • Jan. 22, 2015: $5.5b in 3 parts
  • Jan. 21, 2014: $2.75b in 2 parts
  • Jan. 23, 2013: $500m 3Y
  • Its 2018 maturities total ~$17.4b
  • Has not been seen since July
  • Earnings scheduled for Jan. 16

Wells Fargo, ~$4.1b Jan. 16-22

  • Jan. 17, 2017: priced $5b in 2 parts
  • Jan. 22, 2016: priced $4b in 2 parts
  • Jan. 15, 2015: priced $2b Jr Sub
    • Jan. 26, 2015: priced $2.65b in 2 parts
  • Jan. 16, 2014: priced $1.7b 7Y
  • Priced $2.1b in Dec. 2012 rather than Jan. 2013
  • 2018 maturities total ~$12.3b
  • Has issued in Nov.-Dec. in four of the past five years
    • Last issued in July
  • Earnings are Jan. 12

If you have a Bloomberg terminal, my strong advice is to reach out to Bob Elson and ask him to add you to his distribution list.  It’s free and you’ll likely get good intel along with some very funny jokes now and then. Please tell him “the guy-in-the-corner” sent you.  Thanks Bob! -RQ

Here’s a look at WTD and MTD IG Corporate new issuance volume as measured against the syndicate desk estimates:

  • The IG Corporate WTD total is 0.00% of this week’s syndicate midpoint average forecast or $0.00m vs. $994mm.
  • MTD we’ve priced 79.96% of the syndicate forecast for December IG Corporate new issuance or $26.387b vs. $33b.
  • There are now 5 issuers in the IG credit pipeline. 

Today’s IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

  • The “AA” (+57) and “A” (+78) IG asset classes tied their post Crisis lows for the fourth consecutive session.
  • The Real Estate (+111) and Services (+100) sectors set new post-Crisis lows.
  • The Banking (+82) and Transportation (+104) investment grade sector spreads tied their post Crisis lows for the fourth consecutive day.
  • The average spread compression from IPTs and/or guidance thru the launch/final pricing of today’s X IG Corporate-only new issues was <XX.XX> bps.
  • BAML’s IG Master Index tightened 1 bp to +100 vs. +101.
  • Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS was unchanged at 0.95.
  • Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread tightened 1 bp to +140 vs. +141.  The +140 reached on July 30th 2014 represents the post-Crisis low.
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $12.7b on Friday versus $15.9b on Thursday and $14.7b the previous Friday.
  • The 10-DMA stands at $16b.

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates For This Week, December & January 2018

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