Browsing articles tagged with "global macro Archives - Mischler Financial Group"
Recession Rattling; Industry Experts Opine-Mischler Commentary
February 2016      Debt Market Commentary   

Quigley’s Corner 02.11.16 – Industry Experts On Recession Talk: Déjà vu All Over Again

  • The IG Re-Cap
  • Special Edition of the Best & Brightest
  • Takin’ It to the Street-Soundbites from Most Influential Accounts and Strategists
  • An Illustrated “Market Circle of Death”
  • Tale of the Tapes
  • Today’s 5-Section Global Market Recap
  • Urgent Bulletin to all Treasurers, Bankers, Accounts and Syndicate managers.
  • “On Black Holes, Politicians and Central Banks”
  • Everything Syndicate and Secondary from the day’s debt capital markets


Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap – Apocalypse N-O-W ?

That’ll get your attention.  Here’s why – I walked in this morning and turned on the TV to Bloomberg News. Someone was being interviewed and the caption in large font at the bottom of the screen read, “Money out of global markets and into pockets.”  I knew immediately this was a “risk off” day.  I then turned on my systems and saw the extent of the carnage.  There was no IG Corporate issuance today.  We’ve now had “7” no-print non-Friday sessions YTD. That puts us on pace for 61 total non-Friday no-print days for 2016. SSA issuer Rentenbank priced its new 5-year FRN and upsized it to $750mm to $500m. That was all she wrote today.  I immediately started calling global money managers, domestic and overseas accounts, strategists and personal market contacts to get their take on things.  Here are sound bites from some of those conversations. They are very revealing and frighteningly similar.

“The Best and the Brightest” – A Must Read Special Edition

Given recent global market tumult, especially this week and today, it was obvious to me that asking anyone for next week’s forecast of IG Corporate supply would seem foolish as no one has any idea in here.  It speaks to how volatile and uncertain our markets are.  Asking that question of the Best & Brightest in tomorrow’s Friday edition ahead of a long three-day President’s Day weekend would be unfair. So, instead I asked three questions pertinent and critical to our credit markets.  The responses were very thoughtful and the meaningful responses took the Best and Brightest respondents time and reflection.  If you are in the credit markets; if you are a Treasury/Funding operative; if you are a tier I, II or III account, a banker, a salesman, a trader or an executive in this business this is a MUST read.

3 questions posed to the “Best and the Brightest” today:

“Good afternoon! I decided to withhold my usual Friday IG Corporate new issue volume forecast poll.  I simply ask that you reply to any one or each of the following questions, as your time allows.  I will print responses instead in lieu of forecasts.  I am always trying to find new ways to make the “QC” more meaningful to its readership. These questions are on many market participant’s minds including Issuers’ Treasury/Funding teams, other members of the Best & Brightest crew, Accounts and Strategists. Here are the questions:

  1. “When do you think markets unfreeze and we get back to new issue activity again, albeit at wider levels?”
  2. “What do you think it takes for the current cycle to break, and for us to find a firmer footing?”
  3. “This week the NY Fed released a research piece saying they felt there is sufficient liquidity in the U.S. credit markets. Is that true in your opinion?”

……and here are their responses: (more…)