Browsing articles tagged with "Investment Grade Corporate Debt New Issue Archives - Mischler Financial Group"
FIG Funding 5.0- Mother Merrill Launches a MOAB (Mother of All Bonds)
April 2017      Debt Market Commentary   

Quigley’s Corner 04.19.17 – Mother Merrill Launches A Mother of All Bonds aka MOAB

 MOAB-BAML-Mother-of-all-Bonds

 

 

Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap – BAML Launches a $6.75b MOAB (“A “Mother-Of-All-Bonds”)

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

Global Market Recap

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates April

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

New Issues Priced

Indexes and New Issue Volume

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending April 12th

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

IG Credit Spreads by Industry

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

Tomorrow’s Calendar

Both Bank of America/Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley issued today, wasting no time to capitalize on their recent strong earnings.  BAML launched and priced a proverbial MOAB of a deal – a $6.75b 4-tranche Global Senior Notes transaction comprised of a 6nc5 FRN, 6nc5 fixed-to-float, an 11nc10 f-t-f and a 21nc20 f-t-f.  Morgan Stanley printed a $1.75b 7nc6 FRN.  That represents the fourth and fifth of the U.S. six-pack banks leaving Goldman Sachs as the one that hasn’t yet issued.  Yesterday, Goldman missed analysts estimates as a result of its currency and commodity businesses.  However, it should be noted that GS doubled its YoY profits which points to the impact lofty estimates can have.  Goldman’s investment banking business revenues rose 16% thanks to its debt underwriting strength.

 

4 Corporate issuers tapped the IG dollar DCM today pricing 8 tranches between them totaling $12b.  The SSA space was inactive.

 

  • MTD we have now priced over 63% of the IG Corporate mid-range syndicate projection for April or $58.192b vs. $91.50b.

 

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

 

  • Basin Electric Power Cooperative upsized today’s 144a/REGS 30-year FMBs to $500mm from $300mm at the launch and at the tightest side of guidance.
  • The average spread compression from IPTs and/or guidance thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 8 IG Corporate-only (ex-Preferred) new issues was <13.72> bps.
  • BAML’s IG Master Index widened 1 bp to +125 vs. +124.  +106 represents the post-Crisis low dating back to July 2007.
  • Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS widened 1 bp to 1.19 vs. 1.18.
  • Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread was unchanged at +165.  The +140 reached on July 30th 2014 represents the post-Crisis low.
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $16.5b on Tuesday versus $9.6b on Monday and $16.0b the previous Tuesday.
  • The 10-DMA stands at $14.0b.

 

Global Market Recap

 

  • U.S. Treasuries – closed down. Pressured by Japan selling and weak Bunds & Gilts.
  • Overseas Bonds – JGB’s were mixed & flatter. Bunds & Gilts were hit hard.
  • Stocks – U.S. stocks started the day bid but rolled over. Mixed heading into the close.
  • Overseas Stocks – Nikkei tiny gain. China red. Europe improved except the U.K.
  • Economic – Fed’s Beige Book: Modest or moderate is all you need to know.
  • Overseas Economic –  EU CPI YoY was unchanged (overall & core).
  • Currencies – Good day for the USD outperforming all of the Big 5.
  • Commodities – Very poor performance by crude oil & gold was also a loser today.
  • CDX IG: -0.03 to 68.77
  • CDX HY: +0.28 to 349.61
  • CDX EM: -0.88 to 211.87

*CDX levels are as of 3:30PM ET today.

-Tony Farren

 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates April

 

IG Corporate New Issuance April 2017
Forecasts
vs. Current
MTD – $58.192b
Low-End Avg. $90.25b 64.48%
Midpoint Avg. $91.50b 63.60%
High-End Avg. $92.75b 62.74%
The Low $65b 89.53%
The High $111b 52.43%

 

 

Have a great evening!
Ron Quigley

 

Below please find my synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary from today’s debt capital markets, including the investment grade corporate bond data drill down as seen from my seat here in Syndicate, Sales and DCM.  (more…)

US Corporate Debt Issuers Return From Sidelines; USD 10b Floated
March 2017      Debt Market Commentary   

Quigley’s Corner 03.28.17   They’re Back! US Corporate Debt Issuers Return After Multi-Day No-Go Signal

 

Investment Grade Corporate Debt New Issue Re-Cap – What a Difference a Day Makes

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

Global Market Recap

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and March

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

New Issues Priced

Indexes and New Issue Volume

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending March 22nd       

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

IG Credit Spreads by Industry

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

Tomorrow’s Calendar

 

7 IG Corporate issuers tapped the IG dollar DCM today pricing 15 tranches between them totaling $10.90b.  1 SSA issuer, the Export Development of Canada, added a $500mm 2-year to the mix for an all-in IG day total of 8 issuers, 16 tranches and $11.40b.

  • The IG Corporate only WTD total is now 43% of the syndicate midpoint average forecast or $11.40b vs. $26.50b.
  • MTD, today we officially surpassed the high-, mid-point and low-end averages for March.  We are more than 4% above the IG Corporate mid-range syndicate projection for all of March or $119.248b vs. $114.31b. (scroll to the table below).
  • The all-in MTD total (IG Corporates plus SSA) now stands at $152.158b.
  • Both CDX IG and HV tightened, the VIX also pulled 1 point and the S&P and DOW gained ending an 8 day losing streak – the most since 20011.

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

 

  • Ford Motor Credit Corp. today dropped the 2yr FRN tranche from its 2- and 5-year FXD/FRN having found sufficient 2yr interest in the fixed rate tranche. The other 3 tranches all launched at the tightest side of guidance.
  • The average spread from IPTs and/or guidance thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 15 IG Corporate-only new issues was <20.87> bps.
  • BAML’s IG Master Index was unchanged at +123.  +106 represents the post-Crisis low dating back to July 2007.
  • Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS was unchanged at 1.18.
  • Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread widened 1 bp to +165 vs. +164.  The +140 reached on July 30th 2014 represents the post-Crisis low.
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $13.9b on Monday versus $13.8b on Friday and $13.8b the previous Monday.
  • The 10-DMA stands at $17.1b.

 

Global Market Recap

 

  • U.S. Treasuries – Poor day for USTs because of stocks, supply, economic data, USD & Trump.
  • Overseas Bonds – JGB’s down except 30yr. Bunds little changed, Gilts red & peripherals bid.
  • Stocks –  Rally in U.S. stocks. The Dow snapped its 8-session losing streak.
  • Overseas Stocks – Japan rallied, China closed down & Europe had a good day.
  • Economic – Positive U.S. data with consumer confidence off the charts strong.
  • Overseas Economic – Light calendar overseas today.
  • Currencies – U.S. came roaring back today. The DXY Index improved 1/2 handle.
  • Commodities – Crude oil, copper & silver improved while gold sold off.
  • CDX IG: -0.63 to 67.17
  • CDX HY: -7.0 to 347.24
  • CDX EM: -0.23 to 213.16

*CDX levels are as of 3:30PM ET today.

-Tony Farren

 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and March

 

IG Corporate New Issuance This Week
3/27-3/31
vs. Current
WTD – $11.40b
March 2017
Forecasts
vs. Current
MTD – $119.248b
Low-End Avg. $25.25b 45.15% $113.79b 104.80%
Midpoint Avg. $26.50b 43.02% $114.31b 104.32%
High-End Avg. $27.75b 41.08% $114.83b 103.85%
The Low $15b 76.00% $80b 149.06%
The High $31b 36.77% $140b 85.18%

 
Below please find my synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary from today’s debt capital markets, including the investment grade corporate bond data drill down as seen from my seat here in Syndicate, Sales and DCM.

 

Have a great evening!
Ron Quigley, Managing Director and Head of Fixed Income Syndicate

 

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

 

Here’s a review of this week’s five key primary market driver averages for IG Corporates only through Monday’s session followed by the averages over the prior six weeks:

(more…)

IG Debt Market Issuers Confounded By Dysfunction Junction; Mischler Debt Market Comment
March 2017      Debt Market Commentary   

Quigley’s Corner 03.23.17 –Dysfunction Junction

 

A Very Important Message

Investment Grade Corporate Debt New Issue Re-Cap – “Dysfunction Junction”

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

Global Market Recap

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and March

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

Indexes and New Issue Volume

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending March 22th      

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

IG Credit Spreads by Industry

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab –Courtesy of Jim Levenson

Tomorrow’s Calendar

 

 Important Message to all “QC” readers:  Before we dive into the session  details re: today’s corporate debt issuance, I’d like to call your attention to a very important message from one the Fixed Income Syndicate world’s truly good people, Greg Baker of Bank of America/Merrill Lynch.  Greg is going to be competing in his third 140.6 IRONMAN challenge to raise money for a critically important cause. Without further ado I will hand it over to Greg to tell you more about it. 

 

Dear Friends,

I will be participating in IRONMAN Lake Placid on July 23rd, 2017 as part of the Multiple Myeloma Research Foundation (MMRF) Team For Cures.

The Goal:
Raise $10,000 for the MMRF
Swim: 2.4 miles
Bike: 112 miles
Run: 26.2miles

Multiple myeloma is the second most common form of blood cancer and, sadly, has one of the lowest five-year relative survival rates of all cancers. But while there is no cure, great progress is being made.

In fact, thanks to the important work of the MMRF, the world’s leading private funder of myeloma research, the FDA has approved TEN new treatments, including FOUR in just the past 18 months – a track record that’s unparalleled in the world of oncology. These drugs have almost tripled the lifespan of myeloma patients. And now the MMRF is funding over 20 additional treatments in various stages of development, giving hope to tens of thousands of patients and their families.

All donations are GREATLY appreciated! Thank you very much.
Greg

To donate, please click on the link:  https://endurance.themmrf.org/2017IMLP/Member/MyPage/986791/Gregory-Baker

As Winston Churchill so eloquently put it, “We make a living by what we get, but we make a life by what we give.” Greg is giving of himself, and I ask that you please find it in yourselves to donate what you can to help this incredible cause.  In the name of social responsibility, a heartfelt thank you from the guy-in-the-corner who is always in your corner.
Good luck Greg! -RQ

 

Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap – Zip, Zero, Zilch Thanks to Capitol Hill and “Dysfunction Junction”

quigleys-corner-Dysfunction-Junction
Why did nothing price in today’s rare non-Friday goose egg in our IG DCM?  Simple!  Market participants and issuers are wondering if the Trump rally will stop dead in its tracks if it cannot get an Obama Care replacement bill approved by Congress.  Fractional divides within the majority controlled Republican Party reminds us all of the “circus” that is our nation’s capital known as “The Beltway.”  If support is not achieved, this writer will forever refer to Washington, D.C. as “Dysfunction Junction.”

We are already living in a nation divided with the worst media wars being fought between left and right.  Congress made some “headway” this morning by throwing out the minimum benefits that insurers are required to provide.  The final iteration, however, may not reflect the many months that Trump and his campaign staff and advisors have had to work on a replacement plan promised to be better, stronger, more efficient and one that will save the average American lots of money, while upgrading their care and keeping their choice of doctors.  Anything less than that and it will be perceived as a failure.  The session expected an announcement from House Speaker Paul Ryan – it did not happen.  A vote was expected this evening – it will not happen. The vote on legislation has officially been delayed.  Discussions will be ongoing, beginning this evening in the House at 7:00 pm ET. Markets awaited today’s healthcare/legislative conundrum with the eagerness with which it typically saves for FOMC Press Conferences.  That’s the kind of impact this decision and how it is handled will have.

Unfortunately, and further underlying all the suspense, is the real story of political dysfunction within the GOP.  A new, improved Obama Care seems to be taking a back seat to the question “will the Freedom Caucus continue to agitate any progress within the party?” If so, it will mean a long and painful 4-year term for the Trump Administration, likley result in a loss of seats in the next election and potential control of his ability to effectively govern.  Without support from within his own party effectively means no control at all.  This is all about breaking the party’s House Freedom Caucus, comprised of 20+ Republicans who have been a thorn in the side of any Republican headway.  For now, however, just getting support for whatever bill is being rushed through is challenged to find the necessary 215 votes for its passage.  The legacy of Trump’s legendary negotiating ability – recall his book “The Art of the Deal” – is also being called into question as he faces off with the nation’s lawmakers.

For the more objective Trump supporters, this could be a major disappointment and usher in more toxic additives to the “swamp” that Trump has promised to drain.  The main issue here, however, is that as important as Trump’s first real litmus test is to keep his promises on a full repeal and replacement of Obama Care is that he and his Administration will not be able to focus on any other plans unless and until he overcomes this first major hurdle.  If it fails, President Trump’s ability to achieve his eagerly anticipated and market moving tax reduction plan will be questioned and a financial crisis of confidence could likely ensue.  Perhaps the ultimate deal maker is working on health care concessions in return with a sledge hammer of a tax reduction plan. We’ll have to wait and see. I do think we could see a CT10-year below 2.00% again in short order, after which issuers will gladly hop off the fence in unison and act on a more clear view of rate direction. Robust issuance will be the flavor of the day, but first, we could see a quiet period in our primary markets.  We’ll know more tomorrow when I send out the Friday “QC” featuring the syndicate world’s “Best and the Brightest” and their views and comments on next week’s IG Corporate issuance. So, stay tuned it will be a critically important read for all of you.  For today and in conclusion, “Dysfunction Junction” is why our IG DCM was stalemated today.

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

 

  • BAML’s IG Master Index widened 1 bp to +123 vs. +122.  +106 represent the post-Crisis low dating back to July 2007.
  • Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS widened 1 bp to 1.18 vs. +117.
  • Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread widened 1 bp to +165 vs. at +164.  The +140 reached on July 30th 2014 represents the post-Crisis low.
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $19.2b on Wednesday versus $20.5b on Tuesday and $21.6b the previous Wednesday.
  • The 10-DMA stands at $17.9b.

 

Global Market Recap

 

  • U.S. Treasuries – 4-day winning streak was snapped.
  • Overseas Bonds – JGB’s closed better bid. European bonds traded poorly.
  • Stocks – U.S. stocks little changed with 45 minutes left in the session.
  • Overseas Stocks – Asia closed with small gains. Europe had a good day.
  • Economic – New home sales & KC Fed manufacturing were strong.
  • Overseas Economic – U.K. retail sales were strong.
  • Currencies – The USD was mixed vs. the Big 5. The DXY Index had a small gain.
  • Commodities – Crude oil & gold closed in the red.
  • CDX IG: -0.97 to 67.37
  • CDX HY: -3.17 to 330.27
  • CDX EM: -1.52 to 216.16

*CDX levels are as of 3:30PM ET today.

-Tony Farren

 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and March

 

IG Corporate New Issuance This Week
3/20-3/24
vs. Current
WTD – $19.375b
March 2017
Forecasts
vs. Current
MTD – $107.848b
Low-End Avg. $24.92b 77.75% $113.79b 94.78%
Midpoint Avg. $25.65b 75.54% $114.31b 94.35%
High-End Avg. $26.38b 73.45% $114.83b 93.92%
The Low $20b 96.87% $80b 134.81%
The High $35b 55.36% $140b 77.03%

Below please find my synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary from today’s debt capital markets, including the investment grade corporate bond data drill down as seen from my seat here in Syndicate, Sales and DCM.

Have a great evening!
Ron Quigley, Managing Director & Head of Fixed Income Syndicate

 

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

 

Here’s a review of this week’s five key primary market driver averages for IG Corporates only through Thursday’s session followed by the averages over the prior six weeks:

KEY IG CORPORATE
NEW ISSUE DRIVERS
MON.
3/20
TUES.
3/21
WED.
3/22
TH.
3/24
AVERAGES
WEEK 3/13
AVERAGES
WEEK 3/06
AVERAGES
WEEK 2/27
AVERAGES
WEEK 2/20
AVERAGES
WEEK 2/13
AVERAGES
WEEK 2/06
New Issue Concessions 0.57 bps 0.11 bps 4.62 bps N/A 0.00 bps 1.17 bps <3.15> bps <0.16> bps <0.86> bps <3.44> bps
Oversubscription Rates 3.08x 3.68x 1.77x N/A 3.08x 2.73x 3.39x 3.26x 3.76x 3.92x
Tenors 15.35 yrs 10.83 yrs 8.82 yrs N/A 10.05 yrs 9.65 yrs 8.04 yrs 8.37 yrs 8.03 yrs 12.04 yrs
Tranche Sizes $578mm $788mm $650mm N/A $859mm $671mm $738mm $695mm $744mm $735mm
Avg. Spd. Compression
IPTs to Launch
<17.69> bps <19.23> yrs <7.5> bps N/A <17.99> bps <20.00> bps <16.79> bps <18.47> bps <18.45> bps <19.60> bps

 

New Issue Pipeline (more…)

Cat’s Out of the Bag-Caterpillar 2-part Leads Day’s Deals; Mischler Debt Market Comment
March 2017      Debt Market Commentary   

Quigley’s Corner 03.20.17 – Debt Deal of the Day: Caterpillar Financial Services 

 

Investment Grade Corporate Debt New Issue Re-Cap The Cat’s Out of the Bag-Caterpillar Financial Srvs $900m 2-part

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

Global Market Recap

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and March

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

New Issues Priced

Indexes and New Issue Volume

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending March 15th

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

IG Credit Spreads by Industry

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline – $225.5 Billion in Cumulative Enterprise

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

Tomorrow’s Calendar

 

 

4 IG Corporate issuers tapped the dollar DCM today pricing 8 tranches between them totaling $4.625b.  Caterpillar Financial Services, Heineken NV, Mass Mutual Life and Korea National Oil were the names of the day; the SSA space was quiet today.
The IG Corporate only WTD total is 18% of the syndicate midpoint average forecast or $4.625b vs. $25.65b.
MTD, we’ve now priced 81% of the IG Corporate mid-range projection for all of March or $93.098b vs. $114.31b.
The all-in MTD total (IG Corporates plus SSA) now stands at $123.508b.

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

  • Mass Mutual Life Insurance Co. upsized today’s 144a/REGS 60-year Surplus Notes new issue to $475mm from $400mm at the launch and at the tightest side of guidance.
  • The average spread from IPTs and/or guidance thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 8 IG Corporate-only new issues was <17.69> bps.
  • BAML’s IG Master Index was unchanged at +122.  +106 represents the post-Crisis low dating back to July 2007.
  • Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS widened 1 bp tp +117 vs. +116.
  • Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread tightened 1 bp to +163 vs. +164.  The +140 reached on July 30th 2014 represents the post-Crisis low.
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $15.2b on Friday versus $20.2b on Thursday and $15.6b the previous Friday.
  • The 10-DMA stands at $18.9b.

 

Global Market Recap

 

  • U.S. Treasuries – Positive start to the week. Seasonals favor a late March rally.
  • Overseas Bonds – Bunds & Gilts little changed. Peripheral bonds mostly better.
  • 3mth Libor – Set at the highest yield (1.15622%) since April 2009.
  • Stocks – U.S. was better in the morning but sold off in the afternoon.
  • Overseas Stocks – Asia closed with gains while Europe closed with losses.
  • Economic – Light calendar this week in the U.S. Germany PPI YoY at high since 2011.
  • Currencies  – USD mixed vs. Big 5 & the DXY Index closed with a very small gain.
  • Commodities – Crude oil, copper & wheat closed down while the CRB & gold were up.
  • CDX IG – closed at 68.43 (6mth roll was today).
  • CDX HY – closed at 326.39 (6mth roll was today).
  • CDX EM – closed at 214.78 (6mth roll was today).

*CDX levels are as of 3:30PM ET today.

-Tony Farren

 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and March

 

IG Corporate New Issuance This Week
3/20-3/24
vs. Current
WTD – $4.625b
March 2017
Forecasts
vs. Current
MTD – $93.098b
Low-End Avg. $24.92b 18.56% $113.79b 81.82%
Midpoint Avg. $25.65b 18.03% $114.31b 81.44%
High-End Avg. $26.38b 17.53% $114.83b 81.07%
The Low $20b 23.12% $80b 116.37%
The High $35b 13.21% $140b 66.50%

Below please find my synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary from today’s debt capital markets, including the investment grade corporate bond data drill down as seen from my seat here in Syndicate, Sales and DCM.
Have a great evening!
Ron Quigley

 

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches (more…)

Nor’easter Stella In Front of Front-Loaded Week-Mischler Debt Market Comment
March 2017      Debt Market Commentary   

Quigley’s Corner 03.13.17  Stella Won’t Stop The Show!; Saluting Women on Wall Street

 

Investment Grade Corporate Debt New Issue Re-Cap

Shout Out to Team Citigroup for Honoring IWD (International Women’s Day!)

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points –Penske Widens; Everett Spinco Saves the Day

Global Market Recap

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and March

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

New Issues Priced

Indexes and New Issue Volume

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending March 8th      

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

IG Credit Spreads by Industry

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

Tomorrow’s Calendar

 

So what happens on a Monday ahead of the FOMC Rate Decision, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, Trump’s 2018 budget, the expiration of the U.S. debt ceiling suspension, BREXIT’s triggering via Article 50 and the eagerly watched Dutch elections and the chance of up to as much as two feet of snow in the Tri-State area tomorrow? Well I suppose one could call that a lot of things but I choose to call it a “front-loaded” week as a result………

…….and today’s IG dollar DCM agreed as 8 Corporate issuers priced 17 tranches between them totaling $18.30b with a major boost from The State of Kuwait’s $8b two-part 5s/10s that brought today’s impressive all-in IG day totals to 9 issuers, 19 tranches and $26.30b.

Here are some interesting volume talking points from today’s session:

  • The WTD total is now 73% of this week’s syndicate midpoint average forecast or $18.30b $24.83b.
  • MTD, we’ve now priced 67% of the IG Corporate mid-range projection for all of March or $77.425b $114.31b.
  • Today’s all-in IG day total (IG Corporates plus SSA) of $26.30b represents the 11th highest day of all-time.
  • The session’s $26.30b is the second highest volume day of 2017 – and we have had a lot of biggies YTD!
  • After only one day, this week’s $26.30b already ranks as the 9th busiest week of 2017.
  • Today’s $11b 5-part Verizon Communications transaction is the 4th largest issue of the year.

Shout Out to Team Citigroup for Honoring IWD

 

Today, our good friends at Citibank N.A. issued a 2yr FXD/FRN in honor of International Women’s Day (“IWD”), which was last Wednesday, March 8th. IWD is a global day celebrating the social, economic, cultural and political achievements of women among others. So, today it was a privilege and an honor to step aside and watch as Team Citi once again showed why they have been and continue to be a leading force for diversity in our IG dollar DCM.  Congratulations to the continued collective team efforts of everyone at Team Citi! The nation’s oldest Service Disabled Veteran broker dealer sends its five-star salute to each of you and as well as to all the women in our world and lives. The seven featured Women-Owned diversity broker dealer/investment banks on today’s Citibank N.A. “IWD” deal were:

  • L. King & Associates
  • CAPIS Institutional Services, Inc.
  • Lebenthal & Company LLC.
  • MFR Securities, Inc.
  • Siebert, Cisneros Shank & Cop., L.L.C.
  • Telsey Advisory Group
  • Tigress Financial Partners

Why would the financial industry’s oldest minority broker-dealer owned/operated by Service-Disabled Veterans  tout competing minority broker-dealers?  Well, I’d ask “why wouldn’t we?!”  Firstly, its the right thing to do! Second, it provides us the opportunity to showcase one of the global capital market’s leading and cutting edge D&I initiatives, while tipping our hat to the leading women in our diversity space.  So, congratulations for the glass ceilings raised and doors that Citigroup has helped open at their own financial institution through their own incredible procurement initiatives, as well as externally for all these leading women-owned firms. We extend a hardy congratulations to the respective women of D&I in our financial services industry. All for one, and one for all!

So, where do all these ideas originate?  A good place to start looking is from the top down at Citigroup.  Today I would suggest looking first in the office of one Suni Harford….

Who is Suni Harford?

suni-harford-citigroup

Suni Harford, Citigroup

Suni Harford is a Managing Director and Citigroup’s Regional Head of Markets for North America. In this capacity, Suni oversees the North American sales, trading and origination businesses of Citi’s securities and banking franchise. Citi maintains a premier position across all of its fixed income, currency, equity and commodities offerings. In addition to her current responsibilities, Suni is a member of Citi’s Pension Plan Investment Committee, and a Director on the Board of Citibank Canada. Suni is also the co-head of Citigroup’s global women’s initiative, Citi Women.

Prior to her current assignment, Suni was Citi’s Global Head of Fixed Income research, where she was responsible for Citigroup’s credit analytics, research strategy and fixed income quantitative analytics efforts globally. Suni also had oversight of Citi’s premier fixed-income analytics platform, The Yield Book. From 1995-2004, Suni served as the co-head of Citi’s Fixed Income Capital Markets origination business, where she managed relationships with financial institutions.

Not that she doesn’t have enough on her plate, Suni also serves on the Board of Directors of The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation, the Board of Directors of The Forte Foundation, a national, non-profit organization dedicated to increasing the number of women leaders in business, the Board of the Friends of Hudson River Park, and the Board of Taproot Foundation, a national organization engaged in skills-based volunteerism and pro-bono philanthropy. Suni is also passionate about awareness and support for our veteran community, and she is involved in many organizations in this regard. In addition to serving on the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Veteran’s Employment Advisory Council, Suni has worked with First Lady Michele Obama’s Joining Forces initiative. Suni also represents Citi as a founding member of Veterans on Wall Street, a coalition of major financial services firms established in 2010 to engage the broader industry in efforts to support our transitioning veterans. Having helped formalize Citi’s very successful Veterans Initiative, CitiSalutes, in 2009, Suni remains the senior business sponsor for the initiative.

For those not already aware of her pedigree, Suni joined Salomon Brothers in January 1993, after five years with Merrill Lynch & Co. where she was a Vice President in Investment Banking. Suni joined Merrill upon graduation from the Amos Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth College, where she received her M.B.A. Suni received her Bachelor of Science degree from Denison University, where she majored in physics and math.

Pretty impressive stuff right there folks. Now you know why Suni was named one of  2016’s Top 20 Most Powerful Women on Wall Street!

So, in light of International Women’s Day and today’s honorable $2b Citibank N.A. “IWD” two-part new issue a “thank you”– not only to Suni, but to all the women in our investment grade debt capital markets and in our lives in addition to those who help perpetuate a more inclusive financial services industry.

Before I conclude, a bit of Women-on-Wall Street trivia for you from the guy-in-the-corner’s personal treasure trove – 

Did you know the first ever Euro-denominated transaction ever priced in history was for the European Investment Bank?  Did you know who priced it?  It was a woman. Her name was Natalie Armentero of Banque Paribas Syndicate. You may not have heard her name in a while because, back in 1998 – over 19 years ago – she became the wife of the guy-in-the-corner and she now goes by the name of Natalie Quigley!  Yet another smart and talented lady right there who graced our investment grade GCM opening doors and setting the bar high for many other women to follow.  She also makes me one very proud and lucky guy!  Her sister Marie-Therese Armentero represented Switzerland in the 1984 and 1988 Summer Olympics while currently holding numerous world swimming records for women over 40 years of age. Good stuff right there folks. Here’s to supporting strong women the world over.

Thank you also to Morgan Forester at team Citigroup for making herself accessible for me today on this.

 

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points – Uh oh! What Gives? Penske Widens!……But Then Everett Spinco Saves the Day?!

 

  • Today’s Penske Truck Leasing Co., L.P. and PTL Finance Corporation’s 10-year 144a/REGS Senior Notes new issue opened some eyes today when it launched at +160 or 5 bps wider than +155 “area” guidance despite the fact that “area” was defined as +/-5 bps.
  • However, where there is bad there is good.  Today’s Everett Spinco Inc. 3-year 144a/REGS Senior Notes tranche was guided in the  +140 “area” with the latter defined as
    +/-5 bps but launched at +130 or a nickel tighter than the tightest side of guidance!
  • The average spread from IPTs thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 17 IG Corporate-only new issues was <17.36> bps.
  • BAML’s IG Master Index was unchanged at +121.  +106 represents the post-Crisis low dating back to July 2007.
  • Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS widened 1 bp to 1.16 vs. 1.15.
  • Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread was unchanged at +163.  The +140 reached on July 30th 2014 represents the post-Crisis low.
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $15.6b on Friday versus $20.8b on Thursday and $21.3b the previous Friday.
  • The 10-DMA stands at $20.2b.

Global Market Recap

 

  • Massive blizzard headed towards the Northeast tonight/tomorrow.
  • S. Treasuries – lost ground due to heavy corporate supply.
  • Overseas Bonds – JGB’s had small losses. Europe was all over the place.
  • 3mth Libor – Set at the highest yield (1.13122%) since April 2009.
  • Stocks – U.S. stocks were mixed and little changed.
  • Overseas stocks – Europe more green than red. Asia closed higher.
  • Economic – Not a real factor today in the U.S. or across the globe but will be this week.
  • Currencies – USD better vs. the Euro, weaker vs. the Pound, CAD and AUD and little changed vs. Yen.
  • Commodities – Crude oil small loss, gold up, copper good day and wheat had a bad day.
  • CDX IG: +0.53 to 65.08
  • CDX HY: +3.85 to 336.70
  • CDX EM: -0.28 to 216.74

*CDX levels are as of 3:30PM ET today.

-Tony Farren

 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and March

 

IG Corporate New Issuance This Week
3/13-3/17
vs. Current
WTD – $18.30b
March 2017
Forecasts
vs. Current
MTD – $77.425b
Low-End Avg. $24.00b 76.25% $113.79b 68.04%
Midpoint Avg. $24.83b 73.70% $114.31b 67.73%
High-End Avg. $25.67b 71.29% $114.83b 67.43%
The Low $15b 122.00% $80b 96.78%
The High $35b 52.29% $140b 55.30%

 

In Honor of Tropical Storm “Stella”

My bet is that Tropical Storm Stella renders Tuesday an inactive day which, in turn, means Thursday now becomes a massive day for issuance.   
noreaster-stella

 

 

 

 

 

 

Below please find my synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary from today’s debt capital markets, including the investment grade corporate bond data drill down as seen from my seat here in Syndicate, Sales and DCM

 

Have a great evening!
Ron Quigley, Managing Director and Head of Fixed Income Syndicate

 

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

 

…..and here’s another look at last week’s day-by-day re-cap of key primary market driver averages for IG Corporates only followed by the prior six week’s averages:

KEY IG CORPORATE
NEW ISSUE DRIVERS
MON.
3/06
TUES.
3/07
WED.
3/08
TH.
3/09
FRI.
3/10
THIS WEEK’S
AVERAGES
AVERAGES
WEEK 2/27
AVERAGES
WEEK 2/20
AVERAGES
WEEK 2/13
AVERAGES
WEEK 2/06
AVERAGES
WEEK 1/30
New Issue Concessions <0.56> bps <0.47> bps 5.5 bps 3.94 bps 3.33 bps 1.17 bps <3.15> bps <0.16> bps <0.86> bps <3.44> bps <0.87> bps
Oversubscription Rates 3.19x 2.54x 2.22x 2.37x 1.92x 2.73x 3.39x 3.26x 3.76x 3.92x 3.12x
Tenors 9.93 yrs 8.68 yrs 17.99 yrs 6.58 yrs 5.21 yrs 9.65 yrs 8.04 yrs 8.37 yrs 8.03 yrs 12.04 yrs 11.60 yrs
Tranche Sizes $843mm $638mm $443mm $583mm $275mm $671mm $738mm $695mm $744mm $735mm $1,311 yrs
Avg. Spd. Compression
IPTs to Launch
<21.31> bps <18.56> yrs <17> bps <25.06> bps <13.50> bps <20.00> bps <16.79> bps <18.47> bps <18.45> bps <19.60> bps <19.77> bps

 

New Issues Priced

Today’s recap of visitors to our IG dollar Corporate and SSA DCM:

Please Note: for ratings I use the better two of Moody’s, S&P or Fitch.

 

IG          

Issuer Ratings Coupon Maturity Size IPTs GUIDANCE LAUNCH PRICED LEADS
Citibank N.A. A1/A+ FRN 3/20/2019 1,000 3mL+equiv 3mL+34 the # 3mL+34 3mL+34 CITI-sole
Citibank N.A. A1/A+ 2.00% 3/20/2019 1,500 +low 70s/+72.5a +67 the # +67 +67 CITI-sole
DCT Industrial Oper. Part.
(tap) New Total: $325mm
Baa2/BBB 4.50% 10/15/2023 50 +185a +175a (+/-5) +170 +170 CITI/JPM/WFS
Everett Spinco Inc. Baa2/BBB+ 2.875% 3/27/2020 500 +175a +140a (+/-5) +130 +130 BAML/MUFG/RBC
Everett Spinco Inc. Baa2/BBB+ 4.25% 4/15/2024 500 +225a +195a (+/-5) +190 +190 BAML/MUFG/RBC
Everett Spinco Inc. Baa2/BBB+ 4.75% 4/15/2027 500 +237.5-250
+243.75a
+220a (+/-5) +215 +215 BAML/MUFG/RBC
Humana Inc. Baa3/BBB+ 3.95% 3/15/2027 600 +150-155 +140a (+/-5) +135 +135 BAML/JPM/MS/USB
Humana Inc. Baa3/BBB+ 4.80% 3/15/2047 400 +180a +165a (+/-5) +160 +160 BAML/JPM/MS/USB
Ontario Teachers A1/AA 3.125% 3/20/2022 500 +112.5a +100-105 +100 +100 GS/TD
Ontario Teachers A1/AA 3.875% 3/20/2027 500 +137.5a +130-135 +130 +130 GS/TD
Penske Truck Leasing Baa2/BBB+ 4.20% 4/01/2027 500 +160a +155a (+/-5) +160 +160 BAML/JPM/PNC/WFS (a)  +1 (p)
Verizon Communications Inc. Baa1/A- FRN 3/16/2022 1,400 3mL+equiv 3mL+equiv 3mL+100 3mL+100 BAML/BARC/MS/RBC (a) +5 (p)
Verizon Communications Inc. Baa1/A- 3.125% 3/16/2022 1,850 +125-130 +115a (+/-5) +110 +110 BAML/BARC/MS/RBC (a) +5 (p)
Verizon Communications Inc. Baa1/A- 4.124% 3/16/2027 3,250 +175-180 +165a (+/-5) +160 +160 BAML/BARC/MS/RBC (a) +5 (p)
Verizon Communications Inc. Baa1/A- 5.25% 3/16/2036 3,000 +230-235 +215a (+/-5) +210 +210 BAML/BARC/MS/RBC (a) +5 (p)
Verizon Communications Inc. Baa1/A- 5.50% 3/16/2046 1,500 +245-250 +235a (+/-5) +230 +230 BAML/BARC/MS/RBC (a) +5 (p)
Virginia Electric & Power Co. A2/A 3.50% 3/15/2027 750 +105a +90-95 +90 +90 DB/JPM/WFS

 

SSA

Issuer Ratings Coupon Maturity Size IPTs GUIDANCE LAUNCH PRICED LEADS
State of Kuwait AA/AA 2.75% 3/20/2022 3,500 +100a +85a +75 +75 CITI/DB/HSBC/JPM/NBK/SCB
State of Kuwait AA/AA 3.50% 3/20/2027 4,500 +120a +110a +100 +100 CITI/DB/HSBC/JPM/NBK/SCB

 

Indexes and New Issue Volume

 

Index Open Current Change
IG27 64.547 64.853 0.306
HV27 131.025 131.490 0.465
VIX 11.66 11.35 <0.31>
S&P 2,372 2,373 1
DOW 20,902 20,881 <21>
 

USD

 

IG Corporates

 

USD

 

Total (IG + SSA)

DAY: $18.30 bn DAY: $26.30 bn
WTD: $18.30 bn WTD: $26.30 bn
MTD: $77.425 bn MTD: $100.475 bn
YTD: $340.508 bn YTD: $440.458 bn

 

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending March 8th      

     

  • For the week ended March 8th, Lipper U.S. Fund Flows reported an inflow of $3.482b into Corporate Investment Grade Funds (2017 YTD net inflow of $29.433b) and a net outflow of $2.119b from High Yield Funds (2017 YTD net outflow of $743m).
  • Over the same period, Lipper reported a net inflow of $1.208b into Loan Participation Funds (2017 YTD net inflow of $9.308b).
  • Emerging Market debt funds reported a net inflow of $154.368m (2017 YTD inflow of $1.387b).

 

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

The 10-day IG spread performance vs. the T10 across the ratings spectrum and how IG compared versus high yield: (more…)

A Revised View of ADP Employment Data-Mischler Debt Market Comment
March 2017      Debt Market Commentary   

Quigley’s Corner 03.08.17 -Debt Market View re Latest ADP Data

 

Investment Grade Corporate Debt New Issue Re-Cap – 7 IG Corporate Deals Felt Like a Vacation vs. Monday & Tuesday Sessions

ADP Number Becoming More Payroll Accurate

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

Global Market Recap

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and March

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

New Issues Priced  (UNH, DTE Energy, Realty Income, Western Union, Princeton U Trustees)

Indexes and New Issue Volume

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending February 27

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

IG Credit Spreads by Industry

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

Tomorrow’s Calendar

 

5 IG Corporate issuers tapped the dollar DCM today pricing 7 tranches between them totaling $3.10b.  The SSA space featured 2 issuers and 2 tranches totaling $3.50b for an all-in IG day total of 7 issuers, 9 tranches and $6.60b.
The WTD total is now 18% more than this week’s syndicate midpoint average forecast or $39.25b vs. $33.15b.
MTD, we’ve now priced 46% of the IG Corporate mid-range projection for all of March or $52.775b vs. $114.31b.

ADP Number Becoming More Payroll Accurate

How often have you heard this, “If I told you once, I told you a million times.” Or this –  “If it’s not one thing, it’s another.”  Well, if it’s not employment and jobs numbers it’s geopolitical event risks.  No one seems to be able to get it right. Surprises lurk around the globe as well as in the economic data.  Today the ADP Employment Change number surprised BIG TIME to the upside posting 298k against 187k estimates. It was the highest ADP number in three years! The prior was upward revised to by 15k to 261k vs. 246k  The CT10 responded by popping 5 bps in yield. By 9:00am the Treasury 10yr was at 2.56% or 26 bps wider over the last 9 sessions.

As BNP Paribas’ Sean Stevens wrote today:

The ADP number is clearly getting better at predicting Payrolls.  Let’s look at the average miss over the last 6 months including the average overshoot and undershoot.

Using the January 2017 report back to August 2016 and including the upward revision:

 

Aug. 2016 thru
Jan. 2017
ADP Employment
Avg. Miss 18.2k
Avg. ADP Undershoot 15.5k
Avg. ADP Overshoot 19.5k

Using the January 2016 report back to August 2015:

Aug. 2015 thru
Jan. 2016
ADP Employment
Avg. Miss 58.8k
Avg. ADP Undershoot 112.0k
Avg. ADP Overshoot 43.0k


Economic Data Releases

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA PERIOD SURVEYED ESTIMATES ACTUAL NUMBER PRIOR NUMBER PRIOR REVISED
MBA Mortgage Applications March 3 —- 3.3% 5.8% —-
ADP Employment Change February 298k 246k 246k 261k
Nonfarm Productivity Q4 1.5% 1.3% 1.3% —-
Unit Labor Costs Q4 1.6% 1.7% 1.7% —-
Wholesale Inventories MoM January <0.1%> <0.2%> <0.1%> —-
Wholesale Trade Sales MoM January 0.5% <0.1%> 2.6% 2.4%

 

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

 

  • Realty Income Corp. upsized today’s two-part Senior Notes new issue to $700mm from $650mm at the launch and at the tightest side of guidance.
  • The average spread from IPTs thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 6 IG Corporate-only new issues, that displayed price evolution, was <17.00> bps.
  • BAML’s IG Master Index widened 1 bp to +119 vs. +118.  +106 represents the post-Crisis low dating back to July 2007.
  • Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS widened 1 bp to 1.12 vs. 1.11.
  • Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread was unchanged at +161.  The +140 reached on July 30th 2014 represents the post-Crisis low.
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $20.9b on Tuesday versus $22.7b on Wednesday and $22.7b the previous Tuesday.
  • The 10-DMA stands at $20.4b.

 

Global Market Recap

 

  • U.S. Treasuries – 10yr supply & ADP employment did USTs in today.
  • Overseas Bonds – JGB’s and bonds in Europe had a losing day.
  • 3mth Libor – Set at the highest yield (1.10900%) since April 2009.
  • Stocks – U.S. mixed heading into the close.
  • Overseas Stocks – Japan & China red while Hang Seng & Europe closed higher.
  • Economic – ADP employment was very strong for the second month in a row.
  • Overseas Economic – China trade data was whacky. Japan GDP up. German IP strong.
  • Currencies – USD outperformed all of the Big 5. DXY Index back over 102.
  • Commodities – Crude oil crushed on high inventory. Overall bad day for commodities.
  • CDX IG: +0.65 to 63.18
  • CDX HY: +3.18 to 325.51
  • CDX EM: +6.22 to 214.88

*CDX levels are as of 3:30PM ET today.

-Tony Farren

 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and March

 

IG Corporate New Issuance This Week
3/06-3/10
vs. Current
WTD – $39.25b
March 2017
Forecasts
vs. Current
MTD – $52.775b
Low-End Avg. $31.79b 123.47% $113.79b 46.38%
Midpoint Avg. $33.15b 118.40% $114.31b 46.17%
High-End Avg. $34.50b 113.77% $114.83b 45.96%
The Low $25b 157.00% $80b 65.97%
The High $45b 87.22% $140b 37.70%

 

Below please find my synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary from today’s debt capital markets, including the investment grade corporate bond data drill down as seen from my seat here in Syndicate, Sales and DCM.

 

Have a great evening!
Ron Quigley, Managing Director and Head of Fixed Income Syndicate

 

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

 

Here’s a review of this week’s five key primary market driver averages for IG Corporates only through Tuesday’s session followed by the averages over the prior six weeks: (more…)

Sell-Side FI Syndicate Desks Sound Off: New IG Debt Issuance Forecasts
February 2017      Debt Market Commentary   

Quigley’s Corner 02.03.17– Fixed Income Syndicate Seers Forecast Next Week’s New IG Debt Issuance

 

Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

Global Market Recap

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and February

The Best and the Brightest” –  Syndicate Forecasts and Sound Bites for Next Week 

This Week’s IG New Issues and Where They’re Trading

Indexes and New Issue Volume

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending January 25th     

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

IG Credit Spreads by Industry

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

 

It was a very welcome no print Friday today.  It gives me an opportunity on behalf of Team Mischler to thank Microsoft, AT&T and Apple for inviting us to serve this week on their multi-tranche transactions.  Thanks also to the leads who worked with us at HSBC – on Microsoft; Citigroup – on AT&T  and Goldman Sachs on Apple. All greatly appreciated!

But I know why you all checked in this evening – it’s to hear what the soothsayers of syndicate say about next week’s investment grade corporate new issue volume.  They all once again participated in my survey and their numbers and thoughts await you below.  Next week there is a lack of any earth shattering, market moving economic data and although Fed members will be speaking here and there it opens the door for further issuance.  Considering the very strong market tone that we’re going out with today in which 75% of this week’s IG Corporate new issues are tighter to MUCH tighter, I’d have to once again take the upside of forecasts.  But heck, we all know you want to hear from the top 23 under writers so, let’s first re-cap the day and then it’s on to the “Best and the Brightest” that syndicate has to offer. 

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

  • Taking a look at the secondary trading performance of this week’s IG and SSA new issues, of the 36 deals that printed, 27 tightened versus NIP for a 75.00% improvement rate while 6 widened (16.75%) and 3 were flat (8.25%).
  • For the week ended January 25th, Lipper U.S. Fund Flows reported an inflow of $2.657b into Corporate Investment Grade Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $12.354b) and a net inflow of $412.595m into High Yield Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $291.062m).
  • BAML’s IG Master Index was unchanged at +128.  +106 represents the post-Crisis low dating back to July 2007.
  • Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS was unchanged at 1.21.  The “LUACOAS” wide since 2012 is +215.  +120 is the new tight.
  • Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread widened 1 bp to +166 vs. +165.  The +140 reached on July 30th 2014 represents the post-Crisis low.
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $22.5b on Thursday versus $21.6b on Wednesday and $21.2b the previous Thursday.
  • The 10-DMA stands at $20.5b.

 

Global Market Recap

  • U.S. Treasuries – Rallied after Employment then sold off hard on Trump regulation talk & Williams.
  • Overseas Bonds – Wild day for JGB’s. Core Europe better & balance struggled.
  • Stocks – Strong rally in the U.S. Europe closed higher & Asia lower.
  • Economic – U.S. Employment Report was mixed while the other data was solid.
  • Overseas Economic – China & Japan data weaker. Europe data was a mixed bag.
  • Currencies – USD traded better overnight than it did during the NY session.
  • Commodities – Crude oil small gain & gold small loss. Copper & natural gas were weak.
  • CDX IG: -1.55 to 63.99
  • CDX HY: -22.66 to 323.55
  • CDX EM: -3.93 to 226.36

*CDX levels are as of 3:30PM ET today.

-Tony Farren

 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and February

 

IG Corporate New Issuance This Week
1/30-2/03
vs. Current
WTD – $44.575b
February 2017
Forecasts
vs. Current
MTD – $12.575b
Low-End Avg. $20.96b 212.67% $90.65b 13.87%
Midpoint Avg. $21.63b 206.08% $91.96b 13.67%
High-End Avg. $22.30b 199.89% $93.26b 12.48%
The Low $10b 445.75% $85b 14.79%
The High $27b 165.09% $120b 10.48%

 

The Best and the Brightest” –  IG Fixed Income Syndicate Forecasts and Sound Bites for Next Week 

 

The investment grade fixed income new issuance forecast question posed to the “Best and the Brightest” FI syndicate desk professionals early this morning was framed as follows:

Well, here’s what we did this week:

  • January 2017 broke the all-time, all-in monthly volume record $227.283b vs. $213.40b (May 2016).
  • WTD, we surpassed the syndicate midpoint average forecast with a 2.12x bid-to-cover rate or $44.575b vs. $21.63b. (206.08%!)
  • February MTD we priced over nearly 14%% of the syndicate forecasts in just two days $12.57b vs. $91.96b.
  • All-in YTD IG Corporate and SSA issuance stands at $242.358b which simply means we are on pace to price $2.644 Trillion in 2017!  HOOOAH. That won’t happen but it’s nice to put things in their proper perspective. 

Here are this week’s five IG Corporate-only key primary market driver averages after the close of yesterday’s:

  • NICS:  <0.87> bps
  • Oversubscription Rates: 3.12x
  • Tenors:  11.60 years
  • Tranche Sizes: $1,311mm
  • Spread Compression from IPTs to the Launch: <19.77> bps


Here’s how this week’s performance data compares against last week’s:

  • NICs tightened 2.00 bps to <0.87> bps vs. 1.13 bps.
  • Over subscription or bid-to-cover rates contracted by 0.17x to 31.12x vs. 3.29x. 
  • Average tenors extended dramatically by 4.93 years to 11.60 years vs. 6.67 years.
  • Tranche sizes increased by $466mm to $1,311mm vs. $845mm.
  • Spread compression from IPTs to the launch/final pricing of this week’s 28 IG Corporate-only new issues tightened by <1.57> bps to <19.77> vs. <18.20> bps.
  • Standard and Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spreads widened 2 bps to +166 vs. +164.
  • Week-on-week, BAML’s IG Master Index widened 2 bps to +128 vs. +126. 
  • Spreads across the four IG asset classes widened 2.00 bps to 21.00 vs. 19.00 bps as measured against their post-Crisis lows. 
  • The 19 major industry sectors widened 1.20 bps to 25.20 vs. 24.00 bps also against their post-Crisis lows.

Corporate America has posted earnings.  Lots of issuers have exited blackouts.  Next week we have a very light calendar insofar as economic data releases are concerned.  Japan’s Abe meets with President Trump but that’s not until a week from Saturday.  There are several Fed members that will be speaking next week but we are in a steady-as-she-goes mode and I strongly suspect a big week next week.    

And now after my work and thoughts I ask you my favorite question of the week gift to you I ask, “what are your numbers and thoughts for next week’s IG Corporate new issue volume.

Thank you very much! -Ron”

 

The “Best and the Brightest” in Their Own Words

 

……..……and here are their formidable responses:*

 

*Responses to the QC weekly canvass of the top 23 investment bank fixed income syndicate desks are available only via direct email to distribution list recipients of Quigley’s Corner.

 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for Next Week

IG Corporate New Issuance Next Week
2/06-2/10
Low-End Avg. $23.74b
Midpoint Avg. $24.72b
High-End Avg. $25.70b
The Low $15b
The High $35b

A Look at How the Voting Brackets Broke-Out for Next Week

 

Next Week
2/06-2/10
1: 15b
1: 15-20b
2: 20b
3: 20-25b
9: 25b
4: 25-30b
1: 30b
1: 31b
1: 30-35b

 

Below please find my synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary from today’s debt capital markets, including the investment grade corporate bond data drill down as seen from my seat here in Syndicate, Sales and DCM.

Have a great weekend and enjoy the Super Bowl!

Ron Quigley, Managing Director & Head of Fixed Income Syndicate

 

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

 

Here is this week’s day-by-day re-cap of the five key primary market driver averages for IG Corporatesonly followed by this week’s and the prior five week’s averages:

KEY IG CORPORATE
NEW ISSUE DRIVERS
MON.
1/30
TUES.
1/31
WED.
2/01
TH.
2/02
FRI.
2/03
THIS WEEK’S
AVERAGES
AVERAGES
WEEK 1/23
AVERAGES
WEEK 1/16
AVERAGES
WEEK 1/09
AVERAGES
WEEK 1/02
AVERAGES
WEEK 12/26
New Issue Concessions 7 bps 5.36 bps N/A <2.82> bps N/A <0.87> bps 1.13b bps 3.42 bps 0.85 bps 2.25 bps N/A
Oversubscription Rates 2.68x 2.89x N/A 3.71x N/A 3.12x 3.29x 2.40x 2.85x 2.45x N/A
Tenors 14.11 yrs 12.37 yrs N/A 9.15 yrs N/A 11.60 yrs 6.67 yrs 12 yrs 7.83 yrs 6.52 yrs N/A
Tranche Sizes $1,983mm $1,179mm N/A $967mm N/A $1,311 yrs $845mm $1,123mm $927mm $859mm N/A
Avg. Spd. Compression
IPTs to Launch
<17.22> bps <19.54> bps N/A <21.88> bps N/A <19.77> bps <18.20> bps <14.69> bps <18.77> bps <15.27> bps N/A

 

This Week’s IG New Issues and Where They’re Trading

Taking a look at the secondary trading performance of this week’s IG and SSA new issues, of the 36 deals that printed, 27 tightened versus NIP for a 75.00% improvement rate while 6 widened (16.75%) and 3 were flat (8.25%).

Issues are listed from the most recent pricings at the top working back to Monday at the bottom.  Thanks! –RQ

 

Issuer Ratings Coupon Maturity Size IPTs GUIDANCE LAUNCH PRICED TRADING
Apple Inc. Aa1/AA+ FRN 2/08/2019 500 3mL+equiv 3mL+equiv 3mL+8 3mL+8 3mL+7/5
Apple Inc. Aa1/AA+ 1.55% 2/08/2019 500 +60a +40a (+/-2) +38 +38 34.5/32
Apple Inc. Aa1/AA+ FRN 2/07/2020 500 3mL+equiv 3mL+equiv 3mL+20 3mL+20 3mL+17/15
Apple Inc. Aa1/AA+ 1.90% 2/07/2020 1,000 +65a +50a (+/-5) +45 +45 43/41
Apple Inc. Aa1/AA+ FRN 2/09/2022 1,000 3mL+equiv 3mL+equiv 3mL+50 3mL+50 3mL+45/43
Apple Inc. Aa1/AA+ 2.50% 2/09/2022 1,500 +80a +60a (+/-2) +58 +58 58/56
Apple Inc. Aa1/AA+ 3.00% 2/09/2024 1,750 +100a +80a (+/-5) +75 +75 71/69
Apple Inc. Aa1/AA+ 3.35% 2/09/2027 2,250 +110a +90a (+/-2) +88 +88 83/81
Apple Inc. Aa1/AA+ 4.25% 2/09/2047 1,000 +140a +120a (+/-5) +115 +115 111/109
Johnson Controls Int’l. PLC Baa1/BBB+ 4.50% 2/15/2047 500 +170a +150a (+/-5) +145 +145 139/138
PNC Financial Services A3/NR FRN 8/07/2018 575 N/A N/A N/A 3mL+25 3mL+24/23
Standard Industries Inc. Ba2/BBB- 5.00% 11/15/2026 500 low 5.00%
5.125
N/A N/A +253 254/250
US Bancorp A3/BBB+ 5.30% PerpNC10 1,000 5.625%a 5.35%a (+/-5) 5.30% $100.00 283/278
Province of Ontario Aa2/AA- 2.40% 2/08/2022 2,500 MS +44a MS +42 MS +42 +49.35 46.5/44.5
AT&T Inc. Baa1/A- 3.20% 3/01/2022 1,250 +150a +135a (+/-5) +130 +130 125/123
AT&T Inc. Baa1/A- 3.80% 3/01/2024 750 +175a +160a (+/-5) +155 +155 150/147
AT&T Inc. Baa1/A- 4.25% 3/01/2027 2,000 +195a +185a (+/-5) +180 +180 170/168
AT&T Inc. Baa1/A- 5.25% 3/01/2037 3,000 +235a +225a (+/-5) +220 +220 207/204
AT&T Inc. Baa1/A- 5.45% 3/01/2047 2,000 +250a +245a (+/-5) +240 +240 229/226
AT&T Inc. Baa1/A- 5.70% 3/01/2057 1,000 +275a +270a (+/-5) +265 +265 257/252
Bank of NY Mellon Corp. A1/AA- 2.60% 2/07/2022 1,250 +90a +80a (+/-5) +75 +75 74/72
Bank of NY Mellon Corp. A1/AA- 11NC10 2/07/2028 1,000 +110-115/+112.5a +105a (+/-5) +100 +100 97/93
Commw’th. Bk. of Australia Aa2/NA FRN 8/03/2018 200 N/A N/A N/A 3mL+35 3mL+37/35
National Rural Utilities Coop. A1/A+ 2.95% 2/07/2024 450 +85-90/+87.5a +75-80 +75 +75 73/71
Seagate HDD Cayman Baa3/BBB- 4.25% 3/01/2022 750 +high 200s
+287.5a
+250a (+/-10) +240 +240 248/243
Seagate HDD Cayman Baa3/BBB- 4.75% 3/01/2024 500 +low 300s
+312.5a
+285 (+/-10) +275 +275 280/275
Crown Castle Int’l. Corp. Baa3/BBB- 4.00% 3/01/2027 500 +175-180 +160a (+/-3) +157 +157 157/155
Microsoft Corp. Aaa/AAA 1.85% 2/06/2020 1,500 +60a +45a (+/-5) +40 +40 35/33
Microsoft Corp. Aaa/AAA 2.40% 2/06/2022 1,750 +70a +55a (+/-5) +50 +50 47/46
Microsoft Corp. Aaa/AAA 2.875% 2/06/2024 2,250 +90a +75a (+/-5) +70 +70 59/57
Microsoft Corp. Aaa/AAA 3.30% 2/06/2027 4,000 +100a +90a (+/-5) +85 +85 77/75
Microsoft Corp. Aaa/AAA 4.10% 2/06/2037 2,500 +115a +105a (+/-5) +100 +100 88/87
Microsoft Corp. Aaa/AAA 4.25% 2/06/2047 3,000 +130a +120a (+/-5) +115 +115 106/104
Microsoft Corp. Aaa/AAA 4.50% 2/06/2057 2,000 +155a +145a (+/-5) +140 +140 129/126
USAA Capital Corp. Aa1/AA FRN 2/01/2019 350 3mL+high30s/
+37.5a
3mL+23-25 3mL+23 3mL+23 3mL+23
IFC
(tap) New Total: $750mm
Aaa/AAA FRN 12/15/2021 250 N/A 3mL+13a 3mL+13 3mL+13 3mL+15/14

 

Indexes and New Issue Volume

Please note that the below index levels are as of 4:30pm ET.
*Denotes new tight.

 

Index Open Current Change
IG27 65.548 63.605 <1.943>
HV27 138.23 138.31 0.08
VIX 11.93 10.95 <0.98>
S&P 2,280 2,297 17
DOW 19,884 20,071 187
 

USD

 

IG Corporates

 

USD

 

Total (IG + SSA)

DAY: $0.00 bn DAY: $0.00 bn
WTD: $44.575 bn WTD: $47.325 bn
MTD: $12.575 bn MTD: $15.075 bn
YTD: $184.958 bn YTD: $242.358 bn

 

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending January 25th     

     

  • For the week ended January 25th, Lipper U.S. Fund Flows reported an inflow of $2.657b into Corporate Investment Grade Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $12.354b) and a net inflow of $412.595m into High Yield Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $291.062m).
  • Over the same period, Lipper reported a net inflow of $991.469m into Loan Participation Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $4.760b).
  • Emerging Market debt funds reported a net outflow of $21.098m (2016 YTD inflow of $144.504m).

 

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

The 10-day IG spread performance vs. the T10 across the ratings spectrum and how IG compared versus high yield:

Spreads across the four IG asset classes are an average 21.00 bps wider versus their post-Crisis lows. (more…)

European Corporate Debt Issuance Mkt: Fill ‘Yer Boots Mode
January 2017      Debt Market Commentary   

Quigley’s Corner 01.24.17 Eye on European Corporate Debt Issuance: Fill Yer Boots

“..Today’s all-in US Investment Grade day total issuance makes January issuance $182.433b; the 3rd busiest month on record..”

 

Investment Grade Corporate Debt New Issue Re-Cap – January 2017 Now 3rd Highest Volume Month on Record!
Global Market Recap

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and January 

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

New Issues Priced

Indexes and New Issue Volume

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending January 18th     

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

IG Credit Spreads by Industry

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

Tomorrow’s Calendar

It was perhaps a rather subdued IG primary market today in the U.S. but we did wind up featuring 3 IG Corporate issuers that priced 8 tranches between them totaling $4.65.  SSA also assisted in boosting the volume totals as 2 issuers priced 2 tranches amounting to $3.25b.  Today’s all-in IG day total is now $182.433b making it as the 3rd busiest month on record.

However, allow me to tell you about London’s European issuance where the primary market remains “hot.”  What’s that mean?  How about this – today, according to friend, former BNP Paribas colleague and Bloomberg Editorial Primary Market Strategist, Paul Cohen, “Europe remains in a “fill yer boots” mode across the pond.  Notably, of the 151 YTD syndicated transactions, 100 of them (66%) have trended tighter vs. launch/final pricing.  Despite that Europe was expecting a busy week this week they certainly did not anticipate the €32b priced in the in first two sessions.  It’s staggering! Today in particular saw 10 issuers price 11 tranches totaling €27.68b making it the third largest issuance day in Europe in 3 years according to his Bloomberg records. Today’s U.K. 40-year gilt transaction amassed a record £23b in investor order interest while total demand for 3 sovereign bond new issues eclipsed €80b equivalent.  Paul said the reason is that “the latest rise in underlying rates, fueled by improving macro sentiment, appears to be buoying risk appetite.” It sure does.

 

Global Market Recap

 

  • U.S. Treasuries – Bad day for USTs & bonds in Europe. JGB’s closed mixed. Supply a factor.
  • Stocks – Good day for U.S. stocks with record highs for the S&P and NASDAQ.
  • Overseas Stocks – Europe had a good day (not Ireland), Japan red and China mixed.
  • Economic – Markit manufacturing improved. Low inventory holding back existing home sales.
  • Overseas Economic – Solid data in Japan & Europe.
  • Currencies – USD outperformed all of the Big 5. Yesterday was the opposite.
  • Commodities – Big day for copper. Crude oil higher & gold lower.
  • CDX IG: -1.32 to 65.12
  • CDX HY: -5.52 to 346.69
  • CDX EM: -0.81 to 236.23

*CDX levels are as of 3:30PM ET today.

-Tony Farren

 

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

 

  • Mischler Financial served as a passive underwriter on Morgan Stanley’s $1b (40mm share) 5.85% PerpNC10 fixed-to-floating rate non-cumulative $25 par preferred Series “K” today.  Thank you to MS Preferred Syndicate’s Michael “Captain Morgan” Borut for selecting Mischler as an underwriter from among the many diversity broker-dealers to choose from. It is always appreciated Mike! The transaction rated (Ba1/BB/BB+) started with IPT’s in the 6.125% “area” before tightening 25 bps to revised 5.875% “area” guidance and 2.5 bps tighter into the 5.85% launch for an impressive <27.5> of spread compression throughout price evolution.
    The average spread compression from IPTs thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 8 IG Corporate-only new issues was 18.12 bps.
  • BAML’s IG Master Index was unchanged at +128.  +106 represents the post-Crisis low dating back to July 2007.
  • Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS was unchanged at +122.  The “LUACOAS” wide since 2012 is +215. The tight is +122.
  • Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread was unchanged at +165.  The +140 reached on July 30th 2014 represents the post-Crisis low.
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $17.1b on Monday versus $15.2b on Friday.
  • The 10-DMA stands at $18.7b.

 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and January 

 

IG Corporate New Issuance This Week
1/23-1/27
vs. Current
WTD – $13.70b
January 2017
Forecasts
vs. Current
MTD – $130.433b
Low-End Avg. $19.09b 71.77% $107.87b 120.92%
Midpoint Avg. $20.46b 66.96% $108.41b 120.31%
High-End Avg. $21.83b 62.76% $108.96b 119.71%
The Low $15b 91.33% $80b 163.04%
The High $26b 52.69% $145b 89.95%

 

Below please find my synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary from today’s debt capital markets, including the investment grade corporate bond data drill down as seen from my seat here in Syndicate, Sales and DCM

 

Have a great evening!

Ron Quigley, Managing Director & Head of Fixed Income Syndicate

 

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

 

Here’s a review of this week’s five key primary market driver averages for IG Corporates only through Monday’s session followed by the averages over the prior six weeks:

KEY IG CORPORATE
NEW ISSUE DRIVERS
MON.
1/23
AVERAGES
WEEK 1/16
AVERAGES
WEEK 1/09
AVERAGES
WEEK 1/02
AVERAGES
WEEK 12/26
AVERAGES
WEEK 12/19
AVERAGES
WEEK 12/12
New Issue Concessions 0.94 bps 3.42 bps 0.85 bps 2.25 bps N/A N/A <0.50> bps
Oversubscription Rates 2.60x 2.40x 2.85x 2.45x N/A N/A 2.41x
Tenors 8.54 yrs 12 yrs 7.83 yrs 6.52 yrs N/A N/A 10.67 yrs
Tranche Sizes $1,006mm $1,123mm $927mm $859mm N/A N/A $708mm
Avg. Spd. Compression
IPTs to Launch
<15.61> yrs <14.69> bps <18.77> bps <15.27> bps N/A N/A <17.17> bps

 

New Issues Priced

Today’s recap of visitors to our IG dollar Corporate and SSA DCM:

For ratings I use the better two of Moody’s, S&P or Fitch.

 

IG          

Issuer Ratings Coupon Maturity Size IPTs GUIDANCE LAUNCH PRICED LEADS
IBM Aa3/AA- FRN 1/27/2020 500 3mL+equib 3mL+equiv 3mL+23 3mL+23 BNPP/CS/HSBC/MIZ/RBC
IBM Aa3/AA- 1.90% 1/27/2020 750 +60a +45-50 +45 +45 BNPP/CS/HSBC/MIZ/RBC
IBM Aa3/AA- 2.50% 1/27/2022 1,000 +75a +60-65 +60 +60 BNPP/CS/HSBC/MIZ/RBC
IBM Aa3/AA- 3.30% 1/27/2027 500 +100a +90-95 +90 +90 BNPP/CS/HSBC/MIZ/RBC
Jackson Nat’l. Life Glbl. Fdg. AA/AA 2.20% 1/30/2020 400 +85a +75 the # +75 +75 BARC/CS/DB/MS
Jackson Nat’l. Life Glbl. Fdg. AA/AA 3.25% 1/30/2024 500 +110a +100 the # +100 +100 BARC/CS/DB/MS
Tech Data Corporation Baa3/BBB- 3.70% 2/15/2022 500 +low 200s
+212.5a
+185a (+/-5) +180 +180 BAML/CITI/JPM
Tech Data Corporation Baa3/BBB- 4.95% 2/15/2027 500 +high 200s +287.5a +255a (+/-5) +250 +250 BAML/CITI/JPM

 

SSA

Issuer Ratings Coupon Maturity Size IPTs GUIDANCE LAUNCH PRICED LEADS
Nordic Investment Bank Aaa/AAA 2.125% 2/01/2022 1,250 MS +19a MS +18a MS +17 +23.5 CITI/JPM/RBC/TD
Province of Quebec Aa2/AA- 2.375% 1/31/2022 2,000 MS +46a MS +44a MS +43 +49.15 BAML/BMO/DB/SCOT

 

Indexes and New Issue Volume

Please note that below levels are as of 3:45pm ET.

 

Index Open Current Change  
IG27 66.447 65.188 <1.259>
HV27 140.44 138.89 <1.55>
VIX 11.77 11.28 <0.49>  
S&P 2,265 2,282 17
DOW 19,800 19,919 119  
 

USD

 

IG Corporates

 

USD

 

Total (IG + SSA)

DAY: $4.65 bn DAY: $7.90 bn
WTD: $13.70 bn WTD: $16.95 bn
MTD: $130.433 bn MTD: $182.433 bn
YTD: $130.433 bn YTD: $182.433 bn

 

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending January 18th     

     

  • For the week ended January 18th, Lipper U.S. Fund Flows reported an inflow of $1.893b into Corporate Investment Grade Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $8.108b) and a net outflow of $887.116m from High Yield Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $410.884m).
  • Over the same period, Lipper reported a net inflow of $548.36m into Loan Participation Funds (2016 YTD net inflow of $2.745b).
  • Emerging Market debt funds reported a net inflow of $77.439m (2016 YTD inflow of $314.867m).

 

IG Credit Spreads by Rating (more…)

IG Corporate Debt Issuance YTD: 1tn aka 1 TRILLION
September 2016      Debt Market Commentary   

Quigley’s Corner 09.13.16 –2016 IG Corporate Debt Issuance (so far)= $1 T-r-i-l-l-ion!

 

Investment Grade Corporate Debt New Issue Re-Cap – Another Broken Record –

Global Market Recap

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

New Issues Priced

Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending September 7th

IG Credit Spreads (by Rating/Industry)

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

 broken-record-ig-debt-mischler

Yesterday I wrote, “the session finished with only those two deals priced totaling $1.2b with a promise from the guy-in-the-corner that tomorrow WILL be a VERY busy day!” Well tomorrow is today and true to my word we had a blockbuster.  I then wrote, “We are only $20.822bn away from $1 trillion in IG Corporate-only issuance YTD.   Last year we set a new IG Corporate-only record by reaching the $1 trillion mark on Thursday, October 1st(see your incoming “Quigley’s Corner” 9-30-2015). We’d shatter that record by nearly three weeks if it happens tomorrow!

I am happy to report that we reached the $1 trillion dollar mark in IG Corporate-only volume at the earliest stage in any year, shattering last year’s record set on October 1st by 18 business days or 2 weeks and 3 days.

13 IG Corporate issuers printed 26 tranches between them today totaling $22.344b5 SSA issuers added 5 tranches totaling $9.25b for an all-in IG day total of 18 issuers, 31 tranches and $31.594b.

There remain 12 new issues in the imminent pipeline either currently road showing, about to conduct investor meetings/calls or have already wrapped those up.  So, there’s plenty of business to go not counting M&A deals of which Shire looms large.

IG Corporate New Issuance This Week
9/12-9/16
vs. Current
WTD – $23.194b
September 2016 vs. Current
MTD – $75.654b
Low-End Avg. $35.83b 64.73% $115.45b 65.53%
Midpoint Avg. $36.91b 62.84% $116.02b 65.21%
High-End Avg. $38.00b 61.04% $116.59b 64.89%
The Low $30b 77.31% $80b 94.57%
The High $46b 50.42% $150b 50.44%


Here’s how it looked:

Category Totals
# of IG Corporate Issuers 12
# of IG Corporate Tranches 25
Total IG Volume $22.194b
# of SSA Issuers 5
# of SSA Tranches 5
Total SSA Volume $9.25b
Total Amount of All-in Issuers 17
Total Number of All-in Tranches 30
All-in Corps + SSA Amount $31.244b

 

Here’s a look at some other records:

 

o   $31.594 ranks as the 5th highest volume day in history for IG Corps plus SSA.

o   $31.594b ranks as the 2nd busiest all-in issuance day of 2016.

 

Global Market Recap

 

o   U.S Treasuries – Terrible day for USTs Bund’s & Gilts also headed south. JGB’s better.

o   Stocks – U.S. down Friday, up yesterday & down today. Europe red & Asia was mixed.

o   Economic – Nothing of note in the U.S. China & Japan data better. Europe mixed.

o   Currencies – Very good day for the USD & DXY Index.

o   Commodities – Crude oil and commodities, in general, struggled.

o   CDX IG: +3.70 to 76.96

o   CDX HY: +16.91 to 413.84

o   CDX EM: +12.92 to 254.60

*CDX levels are as of 3:30PM ET today.

-Tony Farren

 

IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

 

  • Liberty Property Trust upsized today’s 10yr Senior Unsecured Notes new issue to $400mm from $300mm at the launch and at the tightest side of guidance.
  • Split-rated Aspen Insurance Holdings Ltd. increased its $25 par PerpNC10 non-cumulative Preferred new issue to $225mm from $150mm at the launch and tightest side of guidance.
  • The average spread compression from IPTs thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 24 IG Corporate-only new issues was 16.99 bps.
  • Including today’s Aspen $25 par Preferred, the average spread compression from IPTs thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 25 IG Corporate new issues was 16.54 bps.
  • BAML’s IG Master Index widened 2 bps to +142 versus +140.  +106 represents the post-Crisis low dating back to July 2007.
  • Standard & Poor’s Global Fixed Income Research widened 1 bp to +190 versus +189.  The +140 reached on July 30th 2014 represents the post-Crisis low.
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $12.6b on Monday versus $15.7b Friday.
  • The 10-DMA stands at $13.8b.

 

Below please find my synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary from today’s debt capital markets, including the investment grade corporate bond data drill down as seen from my seat here in Syndicate, Sales and DCM.

Ron Quigley, Managing Director / Head of Fixed Income Syndicate (more…)