Quigley’s Corner 07.10.18 – Corporate Bond Issuers Return to IG Dollar Market; Toyota Drives DCM

Investment Grade Corporate Bond New Issue Re-Cap

Today’s IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates For This Week and July

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

New IG Corporate Bond Issues Priced

Indexes and New Issue Volume              

Global Market Recap

2018 Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending July 4^th

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

IG Credit Spreads by Industry

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline Highlights

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

Tomorrow’s Calendar

Below is the opening extract from Quigley’s Corner aka “QC”  Tuesday,  July 10, 2018  edition distributed via email to institutional investment managers and Fortune Treasury clients of Mischler Financial Group, the investment industry’s oldest minority broker-dealer owned and operated by Service-Disabled Veterans.

Cited by Wall Street Letter in each of 2014, 2015 and 2016 for “Best Research / Broker-Dealer”, the QC is one of three distinctive market comment pieces produced by Mischler Financial Group. The QC is a daily synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary as seen from the perch of our primary debt capital markets desk and includes a comprehensive “deep dive” with optics on the day’s investment grade corporate debt new issuance and secondary market data encompassing among other items, comparables, investment grade credit spreads, new issue activity, secondary market most active issues, and upcoming pipeline. 

To receive Quigley’s Corner, please email: rquigley@mischlerfinancial.com or via phone 203.276.6646 

Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap

Today the IG dollar Corporate primary market finally awoke. It awoke not from a slumber but rather from a historic streak of sluggishness when considering 10 of the last 12 sessions produced an anemic $3.527b in total volume floated by US corporate bond issuers.  Today’s IG dollar DCM hosted 4 issuers across 7 tranches totalling $5.075b.  The SSA space added 2 issuers and 4 tranches for $7.50b bringing the all-in IG day totals to 6 issuers, 11 tranches and $12.575b. The all-in IG dollar pipeline saw three issuers clear trades today  – Toyota Motor Corp., EIB and JBIC while adding Nonghyup Bank to the forward schedule.  As a generalization, today’s prints were flat to tighter at the break conveying stability and attractive as opposed to aggressive pricing tactics and in line with IG credit spreads coming in the last couple of sessions – a sign of reassurance. We all know too well that the past two weeks’ issuance silence has been deafening as big FIGs lurk on the horizon to provide feed into voracious investor appetite for a new high-quality credit product.

Here’s a look at the WTD and MTD IG Corporate Bond Issuers’ new issue volume as measured against syndicate desk estimates:

• The IG Corporate WTD total is 28.07% of this week’s syndicate midpoint average forecast or $5.075b vs. $18.08b.
• MTD we’ve priced 6.22% of the syndicate forecast for June IG Corporate new issuance or $5.075b vs. $81.54b.
• There are now 20 issuers in the IG credit pipeline.

Today’s IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

• PacifiCorp upsized today’s 30.5-year FMB new issue to $600mm from $500mm at the launch after having skipped guidance.
• The average spread compression from IPTs and/or guidance thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 7 IG Corporate-only new issues was <11.94> bps.
• BAML’s IG Master Index tightened 1 bp to +127 vs. +128. (It’s post-Crisis low is +90 set on 2/01).
• Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS tightened 2 bps to +120 vs. 1.22. (1.24 represents the high on 6/04; 0.85 is its post-Crisis low set on 1/30).
• Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread tightened 3 bps to +159 vs. +162. (+125 represents its post-Crisis low set 2/02).
• Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $18.8b on Monday versus $7.6b on Friday and $11.6b the previous Monday.
• The 10-DMA stands at $15.6b.

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates For This Week and July

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

Here’s a review of this week’s five key primary market driver averages for IG Corporates only through Monday’s session followed by the averages over the prior six weeks:

New Issues Priced

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Quigley’s Corner 06.19.18: Despite Trade War Saber-Rattling, Bayer AG 15b Bond Issuance is Headache Free

Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap – Despite Mounting Trade War Fears Bayer Prints Massive $15b 8-Part Jumbo!

Today’s IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates For This Week and June

Nina Chamberlain Places on USA Cadet National Women’s Water Polo Team

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

New Issues Priced

Indexes and New Issue Volume              

Global Market Recap

2018 Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending June 13^th        

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

IG Credit Spreads by Industry

New Issue Pipeline

Economic Data Releases

Tomorrow’s Calendar

Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap – Despite Mounting Trade War Fears Bayer Prints Massive $15b

U.S.-China trade tensions mounted with the latter imposing tariffs on U.S. commodities. Tariffs on U.S. oil alone amount to a $1b monthly clip. This, in response to Trump’s tariffs that took effect last Friday June 15^th in the form of 25% on $50b across 900 Chinese imports.  Emerging Markets currencies got hit and their bond yields widened as a result kicking off the session with 200 point loss on the DOW. Trump said last week that if China retaliates the U.S. will pursue additional tariffs. Trump’s tariffs are motivated by property rights violations in addition to new controls and restrictions.

Regardless, Bayer AG (Baa1/A-), as expected issued a blockbuster $15b jumbo transaction thru joint leads Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs, HSBC and J.P. Morgan. The German multinational pharmaceutical and life-sciences company priced the dollar-denominated 144a/REGS eight-tranche transaction across the curve.  Last week’s three days of investor calls wrapped up on Friday the 15^th. Bayer AG (Baa3/BBB+) agreed to buy Monsanto Co. (A3/A-) in a deal valued at $66 billion or $128 per share in cash – a 21% premium to Monsanto’s closing price on September 13^th, 2017.  It represents the M&A Pipeline’s largest deal of the year and is the single largest takeover by a German company. BAML, CS, GS, HSBC and JPM underwrote the $56.9b acquisition loan.

Meanwhile Walmart Inc. (Aa2/AA) had joint leads Barclays, Citigroup and J.P. Morgan conduct fixed-income investor calls today, Monday, June 18^th from 9:30am thru 5:00pm ET. Typically issuers are ready to print the day after.  Walmart will acquire 77% of Flipkart Group, India’s largest e-commerce company for $16b valuing the company at $20.8b. The largest companies need to compete on a scale with Amazon following its acquisition of Whole Foods.  Significant “chatter” from my sources indicates a ~$10b debt transaction across the curve slated for tomorrow.  That volume will only add to what’s expected to be a ~40b week of new IG Corporate supply. So, we may well see a total of at least $26b print between today’s Bayer and Duke Florida combined with tomorrow’s Walmart after just two days and there are 20 other issuers in the pipeline.

Today the IG dollar DCM hosted 2 issuers across 10 tranches totaling $16.00b and representing 42% of this week’s $38.16b midpoint syndicate volume forecast  The SSA space was quiet.

Here’s a look at the WTD and MTD IG Corporate new issue volume as measured against syndicate desk estimates:

• The IG Corporate WTD total is 41.93% of this week’s syndicate midpoint average forecast or $16.00b vs. $38.16b.
• MTD we’ve priced 86.89% of the syndicate forecast for June IG Corporate new issuance or $78.58b vs. $90.44b.
• There are now 21 issuers in the IG credit pipeline.

Today’s IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

• The average spread compression from IPTs and/or guidance thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 10 IG Corporate-only new issues was <15.00> bps.
• BAML’s IG Master Index was unchanged at +121. (It’s post-Crisis low is +90 set on 2/01).
• Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS was unchanged at 1.15. (1.16 represents a new high; 0.85 is its post-Crisis low set on 1/30).
• Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread widened 1 bp to +155 vs. +154. (+125 represents its post-Crisis low set 2/02).
• Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $13.7b on Friday versus $19.3b on Thursday and $13b the previous Friday.
• The 10-DMA stands at $17.3b.

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates For This Week and June

Congratulations!
Nina Chamberlain Places on USA Cadet National Women’s Water Polo Team

Nina Chamberlain(l) USA Cadet National Women’s Water Polo Team

Every day we here at Team Mischler leave it on the floor. Some days we’re on deals, others we’re not. One thing we NEVER do, however, is fault our resolve or efforts therein because we expect to be the best each and every day and we know what is expected of us  – it’s who we are. It’s contagious here and equally so in our respective home lives – the ones that matter most to us all.

Case in point, our fearless leader and CEO Dean Chamberlain’s daughter Nina achieved some well-deserved national attention and recognition today that I’d like to share with you all.

The center of gravity American water polo is California, but this year Greenwich represented the rest of the country by placing an astonishing three athletes on USA National Teams. This historic achievement continues the recent water polo trend started by the Greenwich YMCA standout Thomas Dunstan, who made the 2016 Olympic team and now plays for USC. Last year, Kayla Yelensky represented the USA in the Youth Pan American games. This year the trend continued for both the boys and girls teams in several age groups.

Out of thousands of players trying out for the USA National Water Polo Age-Group Teams, only 22 players in the country make the various National team (Development, Cadet & Youth).

Gavin West, a 14-year-old 8th grader at Brunswick, was one of only two cadets (15U) outside California to make the team. He will be the first representatives from the Eastern Zone in 7 years.  Patrick Mullen,a 13 year old 7th grader at Greenwich Country Day School was the only Eastern representative on the Development team (14U).  Nina Chamberlain, a 14-year-old Freshman at Greenwich High School, made the girls cadet team (15U) as the only Eastern representative from the team.

In total, there were more male national team athletes from Greenwich than all non-California states combined. This speaks to the growing participation at young ages and the quality of the local coaching at the Greenwich YMCA under Head Coach Ulmis Lordache.

“All three athletes have worked really hard over the last four years and it is a top honor to be selected for the National team,” said Iordache. ” Our entire club is so proud of them.” All three will continue their training with the National Team in California over the summer. *Reprinted from the Greenwich Free Press June 16, 2018

Congratulations Nina! This is a great accomplishment for you as well as for women athletics and our great nation!

Below find a synopsis of everything syndicate and secondary from the day’s IG debt capital markets as seen from the perch of Mischler’s Fixed Income Syndicate Desk. Have a great evening!

Ron Quigley, Managing Director, Head of Fixed Income Syndicate

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

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Quigley’s Corner 06.14.18 – GM Drives Debt Capital Markets Deal Deal; In Step With Vets

Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap – Push Me, Pull You – Our Inextricably Global Linked World Economy

Today’s IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates For This Week and June

General Motors Financial Co. Inc. $1bn 5-year Senior Notes due 6/19/2023

General Motors Financial Co. Inc. Deal Dashboard

General Motors Diversity & Inclusion Starts From the Top Down

The “QC” Geopolitical Risk Monitor

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

New Issues Priced

Indexes and New Issue Volume 

Global Market Recap

2018 Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending June 6^th 

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

IG Credit Spreads by Industry 

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline Highlights – $596.02 Billion in Cumulative Enterprise Value

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

UST Resistance/Support Table

Tomorrow’s Calendar

ECB President Mario Draghi announced that the European monetary body voted to stop its massive bond-buying program though assuring markets that rates will remain unchanged thru the summer of 2019. The bond purchase program will end in December which caused European equity markets to surge 1.10% on average as the dollar gained against the single currency. Draghi also “warned” against U.S. trade tariffs. Draghi was stern in declaring that trade negotiations have to take place within the “existing multilateral framework.” He pointed out that the framework in question was developed post World War II creating prosperity throughout Europe that could be undermined by trade wars. That’s rather ominous coming from the ECB head. Considering the new world order’s multiple “bad players” I’d be more reasonable on trade negotiations and much more concerned about the defense and protection of my continent and what surly customers might decide to turn off their gas pipelines to Eastern Europe in the middle of February. It’s been done before and nothing should surprise anyone anymore.

With the days of easing money coming to end, Emerging Markets currencies are set up to take a hit much like Argentina’s peso did today plunging 6.1% to $27.70 per dollar, a record low. 

Today the IG dollar DCM continued rocking and rolling following its FOMC hiatus yesterday hosting 10 issuers across 18 tranches totaling $12.35b.  The SSA space was quiet.
Today’s largest deal was UnitedHealth Group’s $4b 5-part but the Deal-of-the-Day belongs to General Motors Financial Co. Inc. You know why right?  That’s right………because Mischler Financial, the nation’s oldest SDVBE was involved.

But before we get to that deal drill down and GM D&I segment, let’s first recap the day..

Here’s a look at the WTD and MTD IG Corporate new issue volume as measured against syndicate desk estimates:

• The IG Corporate WTD total is 120.10% of this week’s syndicate midpoint average forecast or $24.62b vs. $20.50b.
• MTD we’ve priced 69.20% of the syndicate forecast for June IG Corporate new issuance or $62.58b vs. $90.44b.
• There are now 18 issuers in the IG credit pipeline.

Today’s IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

• Deutsche Telkom International Finance BV upsized its 144a/REGS two-part Senior Notes new issue to $1.75b from $1.5b at the launch.
• The average spread compression from IPTs and/or guidance thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 16 IG Corporate-only new issues – that displayed spread compression – was <14.84> bps.
• BAML’s IG Master Index tightened 1 bp to +121 vs. +122. (It’s post-Crisis low is +90 set on 2/01).
• Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS was unchanged at 1.15. (1.16 represents a new high; 0.85 is its post-Crisis low set on 1/30).
• Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread was unchanged at +153. (+125 represents its post-Crisis low set 2/02).
• Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $20.4b on Wednesday versus $19.6b on Tuesday and $19.2b the previous Wednesday.
• The 10-DMA stands at $17.9b.

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates For This Week and June

General Motors Financial Co. Inc. $1bn 5-year Senior Notes due 6/19/2023

Mischler Financial is very happy to announce that it was invited to serve as an active 0.50% active Co-Manager on today’s $1b 5-year Senior Notes new issue for General Motors Financial Co. Inc. We appreciate the opportunity to serve GM.  

In terms of relative value, I looked to the outstanding GM Financial 3.70% due 5/09/2023 that was G+133 pre-announcement pegging NIC on today’s new print at T+137.5 as 4.5 bps.

Use of proceeds: added to the general funds of GM Financial and will be available for general corporate purposes.

General Motors Financial Co. Inc. Deal Dashboard

………and here’s a snap shot of today’s final General Motors Financial Co. Inc. book size and oversubscription rate – the measure of investor demand:

Today’s General Motors Financial Co. Inc. final order book finished at $3.10b making the $1b 5-year Senior Notes transaction 3.1-times oversubscribed. “At the top” or at guidance, the book was $4.0b. Clearly a highly successful transaction on a day in which 10 issuers tapped the IG dollar DCM pricing 18 tranches between them!

Our Mischler five-star salute goes out to Team General Motors Treasury/Funding on this – Flag Day – especially Anne. I enjoyed speaking with you today and appreciated your accessibility and feedback! But I can’t stop there………..

Last but NEVER least hats off to the best darn middle markets distribution network out there.  You’re all great and I/we appreciate your loyalty and patronage on each and every deal.  

Final Pricing – General Motors Financial Co. Inc.
GM $1b 4.15% due 6/19/2023 @$99.852 to yield 4.183% or T+137.5  MWC +25

General Motors Diversity & Inclusion Starts From the Top Down

We know General Motors embraces a diverse work force. They always have. The difficulty comes in sustaining such great programs and the challenge is growing and expanding them.  These mandates begin from the top down and that means from the office of Chairman and CEO, Mary Barra. In fact, GM’s new Chief Financial Officer Dhivya Suryadevara starts in her new role on September 1^st. Now THAT is what I call a value-added diversity and inclusion proposition literally starting from the top down. Bravo General Motors!

GM celebrates the unique perspectives it gains from its global employees. Its workforce provides a wide-array of diverse backgrounds and experiences and it’s their contributions that place GM at the forefront of innovation.  By embracing a diversity of thought, GM is able to develop mobility solutions that meet the needs of a rapidly changing global society and move humanity into the future.

To learn more about General Motors D&I please click on this link for GM’s 2017 Diversity and Inclusion Report:
http://www.gmsustainability.com/pdf/downloads/GM_Diversity_and_Inclusion.pdf

More to the core of our shared ethos here at Mischler Financial Group, Inc., our great nation’s oldest Service Disabled Veteran broker dealer, are some more specifics about the wonderful initiatives taken by General Motors to help our men and women in uniform – those that are prepared to make the ultimate sacrifice for us all.

Below please find a synopsis of today’s DCM data as curated by the Investment Grade Syndicate Desk at Mischler Financial Group. Have a great evening!

Ron Quigley, Managing Director and Head of Fixed Income Syndicate

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

Here’s a review of this week’s five key primary market driver averages for IG Corporates only through Wednesday’s session followed by the averages over the prior six weeks:

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Quigley’s Corner 06.06.18 – 17 Issuers, 29 Tranches $11b in New Issuance; Mischler Financial Tribute to D-Day

Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap – WTD IG & SSA Issuance Matches 2018 High as 54 Tranches Price in 3 Sessions!

Today’s IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates For This Week and June

Remembering D-Day

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates For This Week and June

The “QC” Geopolitical Risk Monitor

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

New Issues Priced

Indexes and New Issue Volume 

Global Market Recap

2018 Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending May 30^th        

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

IG Credit Spreads by Industry

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

Tomorrow’s Calendar     

Today the IG dollar DCM continued rolling along hosting 8 issuers across 14 tranches totaling $7.20b.  The SSA space added KfW’s $4b 2-year Global Notes new issue bringing the all-in IG day totals to 9 issuers, 15 tranches and $11.20b. Week to date we have now priced 54 tranches matching the 2018 weekly high after only three sessions and including 2 IG rated preferreds and 2 SSA issues.

Here’s a look at the WTD and MTD IG Corporate new issue volume as measured against syndicate desk estimates:

• The IG Corporate WTD total is 132.53% of this week’s syndicate midpoint average forecast or $33.45b vs. $25.24b.
• MTD we’ve priced 37.65% of the syndicate forecast for April IG Corporate new issuance or $34.055b vs. $90.44b.
• There are now 14 issuers in the IG credit pipeline.

Today’s IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

• NiSource Inc. upsized today’s 144a/REGS $1,000 par PerpNC5 transaction to $400mm from $350mm at the launch and at the tightest side of guidance.
• The average spread compression from IPTs and/or guidance thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 14 IG Corporate and Preferred-only new issues was <14.07> bps.
• BAML’s IG Master Index widened 1 bp to +121 vs. +120. (It’s post-Crisis low is +90 set on 2/01).
• Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS widened 1 bp to 1.15 vs. +1.14 thereby tying its high. (0.85 is its post-Crisis low set on 1/30).
• Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread widened 1 bp to +153 vs. +152. (+125 represents its post-Crisis low set 2/02).
• Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $18.3b on Tuesday versus $16b on Wednesday and $21.9b the previous Tuesday.
• The 10-DMA stands at $17.4b. 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates For This Week and June

Remembering D-Day and the Greatest Generation: 74 years Ago Today

Today marks the 74th anniversary of Operation Overlord, the Allied invasion of Normandy, most commonly known as D-Day. An epic multinational amphibious and airborne operation, D-Day forged partnerships and reinforced trans-Atlantic bonds that remain strong to this day. U.S. service members from 20 units in Europe and the United States have commemorated the D-Day anniversary over the past week in almost 40 locations throughout the Normandy region.

Never forget!

Have a great evening!
Ron Quigley, Managing Director & Head of Fixed Income Syndicate

*Normandy – American Cemetery

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

Here’s a review of this week’s five key primary market driver averages for IG Corporates only through Tuesday’s session followed by the averages over the prior six weeks:

New Issues Priced

Today’s recap of visitors to our IG dollar Corporate and SSA DCM:

Please Note: for ratings I use the better two of Moody’s, S&P or Fitch.

IG

SSA

Indexes and New Issue Volume              

Countable IG volume includes maturities of 18-months and out and IG-rated Preferreds.

*Denotes new high or tight.

Global Market Recap

• USTs were sold; the yield curve steepened – T2 +2, T5 +4, T10 +4, T30 +4.
• Overseas Bonds: EU, Gilts & Peripherals sold.  Asia flat.
• SOFR: -0.05 to 1.75 vs. 1.80.
• 3mth Libor: +0.006 to 2.319 vs. 2.313%.
• Overseas Stocks: Asia up Europe mostly red except the CAC.
• Currencies: DXY Index -0.241 to 93.635 vs. 93.876.
• CDX HY: -3.363 to 338.194 vs. 341.557.
• CDX EM: -0.287 to 171.909 vs. 172.196.

*Index levels are as of 5:00PM ET today.

2018 Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending May 30^th             

• For the week ended May 30^th, Lipper U.S. Fund Flows reported a net inflow of $848.978m into Corporate Investment Grade Funds (2018 YTD net inflow of $43.822b) and a net outflow of $17.869m from High Yield Funds (2018 YTD net outflow of $15.138b).

• Over the same period, Lipper reported a net inflow of $274.880m from Loan Participation Funds (2018 YTD net inflow of $7.156b).

• Emerging Market debt funds reported a net inflow of $27.322m (2018 YTD inflow of $1.990b). 

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

The 10-day IG spread performance vs. the T10 across the ratings spectrum and how IG compared versus high yield:

Spreads across the four IG asset classes are 24.50 bps wider versus their new post-Crisis lows

*Denotes new post-Crisis low

IG Credit Spreads by Industry

…….and a snapshot of the major investment grade sector credit spreads for the past ten sessions:

Spreads across the major industry sectors are an average 31.42 bps wider versus their post-Crisis lows!
*Denotes new post-Crisis low!

New Issue Pipeline

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Quigley’s Corner 06.04.18: Investment Grade DCM New Issue Market: Goldman Sachs Bank USA Debt IPO

Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap – IG Dollar DCM on Fiyaaahhhhhh!!

Today’s IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates For This Week and June

Goldman Sachs Bank USA Inaugural $1bn Debt IPO – 2yr 3(a)2 Exempt Senior Unsecured Notes due 6/05/2020

Goldman Sachs Bank USA Deal Dashboard

Goldman Sachs Bank USA – Commitment to Diversity & Inclusion

The “QC” Geopolitical Risk Monitor

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

New Issues Priced

Indexes and New Issue Volume              

Global Market Recap

2018 Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending May 30^th        

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

IG Credit Spreads by Industry

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab Tomorrow’s Calendar

So, how brilliant is Moody’s Corp. and our friend Zeeshan Naqvi for timing last Friday’s Moody’s Corp. issuance?  Looks like it’s opened up a whole new world for our IG dollar DCM as 10 issuers priced 16 tranches today totalling $9.95b.  The SSA space was quiet again. What’s more The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. will now be issuing any tenors 3-years and in thru their new entity – Goldman Sachs Bank USA that issued its debt IPO in today’s session.  As a result, it is the session’s Deal-of-the-Day as Mischler, the nation’s oldest Service Disabled Veteran broker-dealer is proud to have been selected as an active Co-Manager on the inaugural issuance.

We greatly appreciate that Team GS Treasury/Funding and Syndicate!  I’ll also be featuring a nice segment about the wonderful initiatives that Goldman Sachs has been focused on for our nation’s veterans. It highlights GS’s Integration Program, involvement with VOWS, Networking and Mentorship, the Goldman Sachs Gives program and a bit about Goldman’s Community Teamworks.

But before the relative value exercise, book build review and Veteran Diversity Initiative at the House of Gold, let’s first review the day:

Here’s a look at the WTD and MTD IG Corporate new issue volume as measured against syndicate desk estimates:

• The IG Corporate WTD total is 39.42% of this week’s syndicate midpoint average forecast or $9.95b vs. $25.24b.
• MTD we’ve priced 11.67% of the syndicate forecast for April IG Corporate new issuance or $10.555b vs. $90.44b.
• There are now 18 issuers in the IG credit pipeline.

Today’s IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

• PSEG Power LLC increased today’s 5-year Senior Notes new issue to $700mm from $600mm at the launch and at the tightest side of guidance.
• Puget Sound Energy Inc. upsized today’s 30-year FMBs to $600mm from $500mm at the launch and at the tightest side of guidance.
• The average spread compression from IPTs and/or guidance thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 16 IG Corporate-only new issues was <13.375> bps.
• BAML’s IG Master Index tightened 1 bp to +121 vs. +122. (It’s post-Crisis low is +90 set on 2/01).
• Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS was unchanged at +1.15. (1.15 represents a new high. 0.85 is its post-Crisis low set on 1/30).
• Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread tightened 2 bps to +153 vs. +155. (+125 represents its post-Crisis low set 2/02).
• Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $16b on Friday versus $22.5b on Thursday and $6.9b the previous Friday.
• The 10-DMA stands at $16.8b. 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates For This Week and June 

Goldman Sachs Bank USA Inaugural $1bn Debt IPO – 2yr 3(a)2 Exempt Senior Unsecured Notes due 6/05/2020

Mischler Financial is very happy to announce that it was invited to serve as an active 0.50% active Co-Manager on today’s $1b 3-year 3(a)2 Exempt Senior Unsecured Notes new issue for Goldman Sachs Bank USA.  This represents the issuer’s inaugural debt transaction (IPO) and as a result, it’s also Mischler’s first Co-Manager role for this new GS Bank USA entity.

In terms of the relative value approach to today’s issuance I looked at another stalwart U.S. six-pack with its own healthy and historic brand of D&I procurement initiatives making for a nice comparable on myriad levels namely Citigroup NA’s $2bn 3.05% Senior Unsecured Bank Notes due 5/01/2020 and also rated A1/A+ that priced this past March 23^rd. They were G+63 bid with no differential between Goldman and Citi 3-year paper and with the 5-year Holdcos about a nickel or 5 bps between them. That would peg a new GS 2-year at anywhere from G+63-68 so, let’s split the difference to get us to G+65.5 landing NIC on today’s new Goldman Sachs Bank USA issue that priced at T+70 as 4.5 bps.

Goldman Sachs Bank USA Deal Dashboard

Use of proceeds from today’s transaction will be used for general corporate purposes.

………and here’s a snapshot of today’s final Goldman Sachs Bank USA book size and oversubscription rate – the measure of investor demand:

Today’s Goldman Sachs Bank USA final order book finished at $4.20b making the $1b debt IPO 2-year 3(a)2 Exempt Senior Unsecured Notes transaction 4.20x-times oversubscribed. “At the top” or at guidance, the book also happened to top out at the same $4.20b level. That’s right folks, please note it is an exceedingly rare occasion for our IG dollar DCM to feature a new issue that had “NO DROPS” between the book at the top and the final book size.  A clear indicator of a highly successful transaction.  Congrats to the Goldman Sachs Bank USA A-Team formerly known as the Goldman Sachs A-Team!!!

Final Pricing – Goldman Sachs Bank USA
GS $1b 3.20% due 6/05/2020 @$99.977 to yield 3.212% or T+70  MWC +15

Goldman Sachs Bank USA – Commitment to Diversity & Inclusion

You all read here time and time again the wonderful D&I initiatives created by and applied by the largest corporations who issue bonds in our financial services industry. If Mischler is involved, I’m getting YOUR story out there.  Today it is Goldman Sachs’ turn and what a story it has historically been with Team GS and their commitment not only to social responsibility but to Veteran causes.  It is always my privilege and honor to help get Goldman’s story to YOU and to Main Street.  It’s only one week detached from Memorial Day and given that the other two diversity Co-Managers were Veteran-owned and operated firms (Academy and Drexel) I would say this is a nice representative Memorial Day transaction of sorts for the Golden Ones at Team GS in honor of our nation’s heroes.

I ask you to please take a moment to read about just some of the wonderful ways that Goldman Sachs helps our nation’s men and women in uniform and our service-disabled veterans, all who were and are prepared to make the ultimate sacrifice so we can do what we do here in the Land of the Free thanks to the Home of the Brave.

Thank you Team GS.  (Jonny, Jane, Jess, Gaurav, Jason, Liz, Tony, Katie et al).  You make a difference in our veterans’ lives and you help our great nation’s oldest Service Disabled Veteran broker-dealer grow in a more meaningful and sustainable way.  Thank yous also go out to our loyal accounts who likewise aren’t just helping us all execute good business in a value-added way but who are also helping us give back a share of those profits to veteran causes. You all know who you are and we appreciate each of you.
Veterans Integration Program

The two-month Goldman Sachs Veterans Integration Program (VIP) provides service men and women exiting the military with an opportunity to develop their professional skills, strengthen their understanding of financial services and prepare for careers in the industry.

Veterans know what it takes to be a part of a team. Goldman Sachs is proud to have them on theirs.

Skills that are second nature to military veterans like leadership, teamwork and problem solving are in high demand in our industry – and Goldman Sachs considers these traits invaluable.

Launched in 2012, the Goldman Sachs Veterans Integration Program (VIP) provides service men and women exiting the military with an opportunity to develop their professional skills, strengthen their understanding of financial services and prepare for careers in the industry.

The program enables Goldman Sachs to recruit talented troops who are transitioning from the military to the civilian workforce. Goldman Sachs encourages those who have completed at least one year of active military service and demonstrate an interest in financial markets to apply.

Outside of their day-to-day responsibilities, participants complete a curriculum including a series of trainings on financial markets and products, networking opportunities and events with Goldman Sachs leaders who share career experiences and insights into the firm’s culture. While in the program, each VIP participant is paired with a peer buddy and a mentor from the Goldman Sachs Veterans Network.

Veterans On Wall Street (VOWS)

Goldman Sachs co-founded Veterans on Wall Street (VOWS), an initiative that helps former and current military personnel discover career opportunities in finance. On November 10, 2015, Goldman Sachs hosted the fifth annual VOWS Symposium and Hiring Fair.

Networking and Mentorship

The Goldman Sachs Veterans Network recruits talented troops and fosters their professional development at the firm. The network also advises on military-related engagements – with nonprofits, veteran-owned businesses and the community – to ensure that Goldman Sachs is a military employer-of-choice and a corporate leader in veterans’ affairs.

Goldman Sachs Gives 

Goldman Sachs Gives (GSG) funded a network of nonprofits whose mission is to reintegrate wounded and disabled veterans. The initiative focuses on job placement and readiness, and family support and counseling.  Partners include: The Mission Continues, offering service-based fellowships to veterans; Vets Prevail, providing mental health counseling and resources; and Team Rubicon, deploying returning veterans to assist in disaster relief. 

Goldman Sachs Gives is committed to fostering innovative ideas, solving economic and social issues, and enabling progress in underserved communities globally. Through a donor-advised fund, Goldman Sachs’ current and retired senior employees work together to recommend grants to qualifying nonprofit organizations to help them achieve their goals.

Community Teamworks

As part of Community TeamWorks, the people of Goldman Sachs support veterans through team-based volunteer projects around the world. In 2015, 550 volunteers contributed 3,500 hours to help 1,300 veterans and their families.

So, when I write here in the “QC” that D&I is in a corporation’s DNA, the aforementioned is a perfect illustration of exactly what that means.

The “QC” Geopolitical Risk Monitor

(more…)

Quigley’s Corner 06.01.18 Weekend Edition: Latest Unemployment Rate Trumps Lowest Figure in 50 Yrs; Moody’s Makes It’s Case for Diversity & Inclusion

Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap – Stealing All Headlines: The Great U.S.A. Flexes Economic Muscle!

Today’s IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points – Mischler On Moody’s Corp.

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates For This Week and May

Moody’s Corp. 3yr Global Senior Unsecured Notes due 6/07/2021: Mischler DCM Drill-Down

Utilities Power Up- Thanks to the EEI

The Best and the Brightest” Syndicate Forecasts and Sound Bites for Next Week

“Knowing the Past for the Future” – A Look at a Decade’s Worth of June IG Corporate and SSA Issuance

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for Next Week and June

The “QC” Geopolitical Risk Monitor

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

New Issues Priced

This Week’s IG New Issues and Where They Are Trading

Indexes and New Issue Volume              

Global Market Recap

2018 Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending May 30^th        

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

IG Credit Spreads by Industry

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline

Rates Trading Lab

Economic Data Releases

Tomorrow’s Calendar

Pre-release Presidential unemployment tweet or no tweet, this morning’s U.S. domestic data releases were AWESOME!  Recently we’ve witnessed Emerging Markets falling out of bed to rising oil prices; from Italy to trade wars, but today the United States of America trumped the global macro news headlines by posting a 3.8% Unemployment Rate, the lowest in 50+ years. The Underemployment Rate fell two-tenths of 1% to 7.6%.  Personal Income beat, and Spending crushed with a 1.8% number versus 0.8% expectations. U.S. Equity markets rose a couple hundred points and suddenly the U.S. has pushed so much headline risk to the side.  It’s all still there but it should be a sign to Americans, Corporations and the world just how powerful the USA engine is and how critically dependent the world relies on its success.
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Today’s results put a certain rate hike on the table at the FOMC’s next Rate Decision meeting held from, June 12^th  thru the 13^th thereby lending needed clarity to our market.

I’ve said it here before and I will say it again: love him or hate him or anything else in between, the President and his Administration deserve credit for data like today’s and it would be un-American not to cheer for your nation’s success. More importantly in terms of social responsibility,  the African-American and Hispanic American unemployment rates are at the lowest in their history, and Women achieved their highest employment numbers in over 19 years.

Oh, and the June 12^th U.S. North Korean Summit is back on for June 12^th. A nice way to end the week.

It’s Friday and you all know what that means.  The Best and Brightest in our world of investment grade rated Corporate new issuance have all spoken. They shared nice sound bites about next week and the month of June. First up though are the recaps followed by in order:

• The deal drill down of today’s Moody’s Corp. transaction on which Mischler served as an active 3.00% Co-Manager.
• A look into Moody’s D&I initiatives with a focus on the people behind them and their veteran-focused programs.
• Then there’s a brief summary of the Edison Electric Institute’s 2017 Financial Review Annual Report of the investor-Owned Electric Utility Industry
• Then it’s all about the Best and Brightest on their thoughts and forecasts for next week and June.

So, sit back, relax in the comfort of wherever you may be and set the table for next week’s IG dollar primary market expectations. You deserve the two day sojourn just ahead. Get comfortable. This daily is done for YOU thanks to the guy-in-the corner.  ……that would be “Quigley’s Corner!” Enjoy and thanks as always for tuning in!

Today the IG dollar DCM hosted 3 issuers across 3 tranches totaling $605mm.  The SSA space was quiet.

Here’s a look at the WTD and MTD IG Corporate new issue volume as measured against syndicate desk estimates:

• The IG Corporate WTD total is 28.00% of this week’s syndicate midpoint average forecast or $5.605b vs. $20.02b.
• MTD we’ve priced 89.09% of the syndicate forecast for April IG Corporate new issuance or $120.13b vs. $134.84b.
• There are now 16 issuers in the IG credit pipeline.

Today’s IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points – Mischler Secures Another Friday Print This Time for Moody’s Corp.

• Mischler Financial served as an active 3.00% Co-Manager on Moody’s Corps. $300mm “will not grow” 3-year Global Senior Unsecured Notes new issue due 6/07/2021. As a result it is today’s featured “Deal-of-the-Day.” However, let’s first review today’s primary market talking points. Please be sure to read about the wildly Moody’s transaction by scrolling below just ahead of today’s Best & Brightest section. Thanks! -RQ
• The average spread compression from IPTs and/or guidance thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 2 IG Corporate-only new issues was <13.5> bps.
• BAML’s IG Master Index widened 2 bps to +122 vs. +120. (It’s post-Crisis low is +90 set on 2/01).
• Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS was unchanged at +1.15. (1.15 represents a new high. 0.85 is its post-Crisis low set on 1/30).
• Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread widened 1 bp to +155 vs. +154. (+125 represents its post-Crisis low set 2/02).
• Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $22.5b on Thursday versus $21.9b on Wednesday and $16.6b the previous Thursday.
• The 10-DMA stands at $17.1b.
• For the week ended May 30^th, Lipper U.S. Fund Flows reported a net inflow of $848.978m into Corporate Investment Grade Funds (2018 YTD net inflow of $43.822b) and a net outflow of $17.869m from High Yield Funds (2018 YTD net outflow of $15.138b).

• Taking a look at the secondary trading performance of this week’s 11 IG new issues new issues 5 tightened versus NIP for a 50% improvement rate, 5 widened  (45.50%) and 1 were flat (9.00%).
  

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates For This Week and May

Moody’s Corp. 3yr Global Senior Unsecured Notes due 6/07/2021

Mischler Financial is very happy to announce that it was invited to serve as an active 3.00% Co-Manager on today’s $300mm Moody’s Corp. (NYSE: MCO)  3-year fixed rate Global Senior Unsecured Notes new issue due 6/07/2021.

There were a couple logical ways to approach fair value on today’s transaction.  The first path looked to the outstanding MCO 2.75% due 12/15/2021 that was T+78, G+73 this morning pre-announcement pegging new issue concession as negative 3 bps versus today’s T+70 new issue pricing.

However, there were a wide range of quotes on the 2021s so, if you took a mid-point of the 3 joint leads (BAML, Citigroup and JPM), it was T+80 bid or G+75 nailing NIC as <5> bps.

Ever the politician (Ha!) I am averaging the two analyses and taking the average so the guy-in-the-corner calls NIC on today’s Moody’s new issue negative 4 bps. Either way you look at it folks this was a great deal and the timing, well, it’s now officially legendary!

Moody’s Corp. Deal Dashboard

Use of proceeds from today’s transaction will be used for general corporate purposes, which may include repayment of a portion of the $350mm outstanding under the loan agreement between Moody’s, as borrower, the lenders from time to time party thereto and J.P. Morgan Chase Bank, N.A. as administrative agent, entered into on June 6, 2017 to finance the acquisition of Bureau van Dijk (the “term Loan Facility”). .

………and here’s a snap shot of today’s final Moody’s Corp. book sizes and oversubscription rates – the measure of investor demand:

Today’s Moody’s Corp. final order book finished at $1.70b making the 3-year Global Senior Unsecured Notes transaction 5.67x-times oversubscribed. “At the top” or at guidance, the book was as high as $1.90b or 6.33x covered. That folks, is VERY impressive especially given the volatility we’ve been witnessing of late. Congrats to Zeeshan Naqvi on his impeccable timing and Moody’s Corp. as well as Team Citigroup Syndicate (Scott, Frank, Adnes and Andrew) with whom it is always my great pleasure to work with on deal day.

Have a look:

Final Pricing – Moody’s Corp.
MCO $300mm 3.25% due 6/07/2021 @$98.85 to yield 3.303% or T+70

Moody’s Corp. – Commitment to Diversity & Inclusion

When we talk about diversity in our financial services industry, it begins with issuers like GECC and MBNA just before that. If you work in our IG dollar DCM and never heard of Kitty Yoh, well then ………you never did.  She is retired, but have no doubt she is legendary.  Her past senior Treasury team featured some pretty impactfull people who helped create, develop and execute GECC’s iconic D&I initiative in our financial services industry.  Chris Coffey, now with Synchrony Financial and Zeeshan Naqvi, Moody’s Treasurer, are two such legends in our business, who came up through the ranks and are among the best there is in Treasury/Funding.  I’ll sneak in here that my wife, formerly Natalie Armenteros, priced the first-ever Euro denominated issue on the planet (it was for EIB), as well as a slew of GECC’s Euro issuances, including GE’s first Euro new issue whilst she served as head of Paribas’ Syndicate desk in Geneva, Switzerland. I have known Zeeshan for as long as I can remember, from the bulge bracket to the D&I b/d space over 12 years ago. Moody’s D&I and Zeeshan are the focus of this evening’s D&I drill down.

Zeeshan took what he learned in life and working at GECC and brought it with him to Moody’s Corp. bridging the issuer’s already sprouting commitment to social responsibility.  As Zeeshan told me today, “Moody’s takes great efforts to execute Diversity and Inclusion not only internally here within the Company and in their transactions, but we are incredibly active in the community.” As with all such corporate though-leading initiatives, here they begin with the senior leadership team, and at Moody’s Corp. that means President and Chief Executive Officer Randall W. McDaniel. Moody’s leadership team is committed to making diversity and inclusion part of the fabric of its organization. From the office of the CEO to Zeeshan in Treasury/Funding, D&I is implemented across every aspect of Moody’s business.  That only helps create an environment that maximizes every employee’s contribution, widens the leadership pipeline and ultimately increases the quality of opinions, products and services.

I can tell you that in dealing with Zeeshan he is passionate about educating us here at Team Mischler to understand his Company’s diversity and inclusion initiatives, and values our partnership as the nation’s oldest Service-Disabled Veteran broker dealer. Moody’s Diversity Council is responsible for implementing its diversity and inclusion strategies. To achieve its goals, the council is organized into working groups that focus on strategic priorities, developing an action plan and making it a reality. They prioritize educating its employees so that they understand the value of its D&I mandate.

Moody’s and Veterans

As it pertains specifically to Mischler Financial’s Service-Disabled Veteran certification, Moody’s Veteran Employee Resource Group or “ERG” was created to recognize and support veterans, active duty military personnel and military families both at Moody’s and in its communities. Members primarily focus on outreach efforts, including workforce integration and raising awareness around issues that impact veterans. Moody’s is a Global partner with VOWS or Veterans on Wall Street, Diversity Best Practices, and Columbia University Military Veterans Program.

If you didn’t know it before reading today’s “QC” you do now – legendary prints are being made by legendary companies that embrace legendary diversity and inclusion initiatives. It is always my great privilege, honor and personal responsibility to help get those and YOUR D&I stories to the Street – from Wall Street to Main Street.

It is this social responsibility aspect of my job that will always drive and motivate me to go the extra mile.  Friday no print?  Are you kidding me?  Bring it on folks. This is what it’s all about.

Congratulations to Moody’s Corp and to my friend Mr. Zeeshan Naqvi. Thank you both for everything you do for D&I and the greater good, and congratulations on a job very well done today.

Utilities Power Up Thanks to the EEI

Edison Electric Institute today released its 2017 Financial Review Annual Report of the investor-Owned Electric Utility Industry that always provides a great recap of the financial performance and strategic direction of investor-owned utilities for the year.

Matching this morning’s stellar domestic economic data releases, the U.S. electric utility industry continues to benefit from its solid financial foundation. The EEI Index returned 11.7%, posting a second consecutive year of double-digit gains after 2016’s 17.4% return, and has now produced a positive total return in 13 of the last 15 years. The industry invested $113.6 billion in 2017 for a sixth-straight year of record-high capital expenditures, while continuing to improve its overall credit profile. Electric utilities continue to be a top dividend-paying sector and 88% of the industry increased the dividend in 2017, the second-highest percentage on record.

“The Best and the Brightest” Syndicate Forecasts and Sound Bites for Next Week

Thanks as always for tuning in to the daily “QC”, enjoy your read in preparation for the week ahead and enjoy a fabulous weekend with you and yours!I am happy to announce that the “QC” once again received 100% unanimous participation from all 24 desks surveyed for today’s “Best & Brightest” Syndicate edition!  Thank you to all of them. 21 of today’s respondents are in the top 22 syndicate desks including 22 of the top 25 according to today’s Bloomberg U.S. IG U.S. Investment Grade Corporate Bond underwriting league table.  The 2018 League table can be found on your terminals at “LEAG” + [GO] after which you select (U.S. Investment Grade Corporates).  The participating desks represent 81.48% of all IG dollar-denominated new issue underwriting as of today’s table share percentage which simply means they are the ones with visibility.  But it’s not only about their volume forecasts, it’s also about their comments!  This core syndicate group does it best; they know best; so they are the ones you WANT and NEED to hear from.  It’s a great look at the week ahead.

*Please note that these are Investment Grade Corporates only. They do not include SSA issuance unless otherwise noted.  

As always “thank you” to all the syndicate desks that participated in today’s survey.  I greatly appreciate your time to contribute and for making this edition of the “QC” among the most widely read! You are helping to promote Mischler’s value-added DCM proposition while adding readership to the “QC” that won Wall Street Letter’s Award as Best Broker Dealer Research in our financial services industry for three consecutive years – 2014, 2015 and 2016 !  More importantly, however, you are helping the nation’s oldest Service Disabled Veteran broker-dealer grow in a more meaningful and sustainable way.  So, thank you all! –RQ

“Friday arrived so fast.  Nothing beats the four day work week!

First let’s dive right into all the muck in our world by recapping the most up to date geopolitical event risk factors that impacted our markets this week:

• 5/31 – Sec. of State Mike Pompeo is encouraged by recent talks with NOKO envoys and an announced meeting on June 1^st between a senior nuclear negotiator and Pres. Trump. A personal letter will be hand delivered to Trump today at the White House by Kim Yong-chol, former director of NOKO’s intel bureau and vice-chair of the Cent. Comm. Of the Worker’s Party of Korea.
• 6/01 – Italy swore in new PM Giuseppe Conte, a former law professor as well as a coalition cabinet that includes both 5-Star Movement head Luigi Di Maio and League’s Mateo Salvini. The Borsa Italiana was up 2.50%. The EU released a statement saying they are confident the ruling coalition government will cooperate with Brussels.  Time will tell. On 5/31 – Right or wrong, EU chief Jean-Claude Juncker slammed Italians saying they need to work hard and stop blaming the EU to resolve their problems which will only exacerbate populist support tensions in the boot nation.  On 5/27 President Mattarella vetoed the coalition’s euro skeptic candidate, Paolo Savona as finance minister. Mattarella then vetoed all cabinet ministers, installed a EU friendly neutral gov’t. headed by an interim PM and former IMF economist as Italy looked to be headed for new elections. Di Maio and Salvini agreed to back down from Savona as Finance Minister. Still, Italy had gone without a government for 89 days shattering the old record of 82 set in 1996. The two populist parties have over 50% support, promote tough immigration reform, spending hikes, no sanctions against Russia, two tax brackets of 15% and 20%, erasing the previously boosted retirement age and a citizen’s income for the poor. Europe should have a contingency plan in place for a derailment of the Union. Italy had 70 post WWII gov’ts in 72 post-WWII years – one every 1.02 years. It is the EU’s 3^rd largest economy, has the world’s 3^rd highest debt-to-GDP ratio at 132.5% and a $2.8 trillion (equiv.) national debt. Italy is clearly the EU’s biggest economic risk. Italy’s banking sector holds $220bn of bad loans.
• 5/31 – Trade War fears heated up again. Sighting no progress with Europe and re-negotiating NAFTA, the Trump Admin. announced 25% tariffs on imported steel and 10% on aluminum on national security grounds against the EU, Canada, Mexico effective midnight. Counter tariffs were levied against U.S. goods in response roiling markets. 5/29 – Motivated by intellectual property rights violations, the Trump Admin. will levy 50% tariffs on Chinese imports as well as new controls and restrictions. Despite reduced tensions post Mnuchin’s 5/01 statement that Trump would “put the trade war on hold” negotiations have failed to produce a resolution. Trump indicated a list of tariffed imports will be available on June 15^th.
• 5/29 – Iran’s Ayatollah is concerned the EU will not be able to salvage their end of the Iran nuclear deal as EU nations that link their security to U.S. security will cave to U.S. demands. Iran doubts the EU can prevent major companies from withdrawing due to new U.S. sanctions. 5/08 – President Trump pulled the U.S. from JCPOA while imposing mort stringent sanctions against Iran. He also warned heavy sanctions against nations assisting Iran’s nuclear pursuits. On 4/30 Israeli PM Netanyahu showed evidence of Iran’s continued nuclear ambitions in violation of the JCPOA.
• 5/29 – Gaza Strip based Hamas and rebels launched over two dozen rockets into southern Israel in the largest barrage of Palestinian fire since 2014. Israel answered with targeted bombings.
• 5/29 – U.S. interest rates: Amidst a rising rate environment, Italy, Spain and trade war fears counter by pushing investor cash into the safe haven of USTs thereby compressing yields.
• 5/31 – Spain’s Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy will highly likely be ousted in a vote on Friday, June 1^st as Socialists have enough votes of no confidence to boot the leader of a corrupt Administration that has seen nearly 30 officials convicted on various crimes of graft and conspiracy. The disgraced PM can resign ahead of tomorrow’s demoralizing vote. Rajoy has been at the helm of the Spanish gov’t. through the sovereign debt crisis, a national bailout and its own recession and ongoing Catalan independence crisis. Socialist leader Pedro Sanchez looks to win a slim majority in the 350 member Parliament but his party would rule as a minority with less than 25% support but is backed by his own Socialist cause, the Basque nationalist party and far left groups, similar to Italy.
• 5/31 – Hard vs. soft BREXIT battle continues.  UK PM May is under increasing Tory pressure to defy hard-liners in her party to compromise for a more pragmatic solution. Talk of May’s hardline stance could result in a vote of no confidence.
• May 2018 Terror Event MTD Casualty Total: 135 terrorist attacks; 917 dead; 1,133

Now let’s take a look at the critical week-on-week primary market stats:

Attention Syndicate Desks: Please note that the five key primary market driver averages in the below survey question have been updated from this morning to include today’s Moody’s, Texas Instruments or MetLife $25 Preferred new issues that priced or were green shoed  Nothing but the best for the “Best and the Brightest!” 

• The IG Corporate WTD total stands at $5.00b. We priced $15.02b less than this week’s average midpoint estimate of $20.02b or <75.02%>.
• MTD we priced 88.64% of the syndicate midpoint forecast for IG Corporate new issuance or $119.525b vs. $134.84b.
• Entering today’s session, the YTD IG Corporate-only volume is $584.196b vs. the $652.039b YoY which is <$67.843b> or <10.40%> less than a year ago.
• The all-in or IG Corporate plus SSA YTD volume is $734.261b vs. $808.831b YoY which is <$74.57b> or <9.22%> less than vs. 2017.

Here are the five key primary market driver averages for the 9 IG Corporate-only deals that priced this week.  

• NICS: 9.00 bps  
• Oversubscription Rates: 2.73x
• Tenors: 9.69 years
• Tranche Sizes: $467mm
• Spread Compression from IPTs to the Launch: <8.23> bps

Here’s how this week’s critical primary market data compares against last week’s numbers:

• Week on week, average NICs tightened 0.67 bps to an average 9.00 bps vs. 9.67 bps across this week’s 11 IG Corporate-only new issues that displayed relative value.
• Over subscription or bid-to-cover rates, the measure of demand, decreased by 0.20x to an average 2.73x vs. 2.93x. 
• Average tenors expanded by 1.99 years to an average 9.69 years vs. 7.70 years.
• Tranche sizes decreased by $485mm to $467mm vs. $952mm last week.
• Spread compression from IPTs to the launch/final pricing of this week’s 11 IG Corporate and Preferred-only new issues widened by 10.48 bps to <8.23> bps vs. <18.71> bps.
• Standard and Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread widened 5 bps to +155 bps vs. +150 week-on-week. 
• Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS thru this morning widened by 6 bps to a new high of 1.15 vs. 1.09 week-on-week.
• Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $22.5b on Thursday versus $21.9b on Wednesday and $16.6b the previous Thursday.   
• The 10-DMA stands at $17.1b.
• The VIX widened 2.21 or 16.717% to 15.43 at yesterday’s close vs. last Friday’s 13.22 close.

• Week-on-week, BAML’s IG Master Index widened 7.00 bps to +122 vs. +115 week-on-week.  
• Spreads across the four IG asset classes widened 5.00 bps week-on-week to 25.50 vs. 20.00 bps as measured against its cumulative post-Crisis low.
• Spreads across the 19 major IG industry sectors widened 5.73 bps to an average 32.26 vs. 26.53 bps as measured against their average cumulative post-Crisis lows!
• For the week ended May 30^th, Lipper U.S. Fund Flows reported a net inflow of $848.978m into Corporate Investment Grade Funds (2018 YTD net inflow of $43.822b) and a net outflow of $17.869m from High Yield Funds (2018 YTD net outflow of $15.138b).

Entering today’s Friday session here’s a look at this week’s IG issuance volume totals:

• IG Corps: $5.00b
• All-in IG (Corps + SSA): $5.00b

And now it’s time for today’s question “what are your thoughts and numbers for next week’s IG Corporate new issue volume?”

The “Best and the Brightest” in Their Own Words (more…)

Quigley’s Corner 05.30.18 : Investment Grade Bond Issuance: Market Reboots

Investment Grade Bond New Issue Re-Cap – Market Reboots

Today’s IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates For This Week and May

The “QC” Geopolitical Risk Monitor

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

New Issues Priced

Indexes and New Issue Volume

Global Market Recap            

2018 Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending May 23^rd        

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

IG Credit Spreads by Industry

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

Tomorrow’s Calendar

In a dramatic reversal, financial markets recouped much of yesterday’s losses by kicking Italy’s political drama off today’s stage with its own powerful steel-tipped boot in a memorable display of market resiliency. Issuers were actively checking the market this morning with two utilities accounting for three of the session’s six tranches. Dominion Energy and Southern California Edison (NYSEAMERICAN: SCE-E) printed along with a MetLife, Inc. (NYSE: MET) $25 par non-cumulative PerpNC5 preferred stock transaction that was upsized to $700mm from an initially announced $200mm deal size on the back of strong demand. Morgan Stanley had physical books. Congrats to Team MS’s Captain Morgan, Mike Borut for leading that charge.  It was a nice shot in the arm after yesterday’s market woes. There remain myriad geopolitical event risk factors treading on thin ice that could make this summer a bumpy ride.  But it’s responses like today’s session that remind us all how irrepressible the market is.

Today the IG dollar DCM hosted 4 issuers across 6 tranches totaling $3.45b.  The SSA space was inactive.

Here’s a look at the WTD and MTD IG Corporate new issue volume as measured against syndicate desk estimates:

• The IG Corporate WTD total is 17.23% of this week’s syndicate midpoint average forecast or $3.45b vs. $20.02b.
• MTD we’ve priced 87.49% of the syndicate forecast for April IG Corporate new issuance or $117.975b vs. $134.84b.
• There are now 14 issuers in the IG credit pipeline.

Today’s IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

• MetLife Inc. upsized today’s 28mm share $25 par non-cumulative PerpNC5 Preferred stock transaction to $700mm from $200mm
• The average spread compression from IPTs and/or guidance thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 5 IG Corporate-only new issues was <8.70> bps.
• Including today’s MetLife Inc. $25 par perpNC5 Preferred stock transaction, spread compression among the 6 IG Corporate and Preferred was <8.29> bps.
• BAML’s Investment Grade Bond Master Index widened 4 bps to +120 vs. +116. (It’s post-Crisis low is +90 set on 2/01).
• Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS widened 3 bps to +114 vs. 1.11.  (0.85 is its post-Crisis low set on 1/30).
• Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread widened 5 bps to +156 vs. +151. (+125 represents its post-Crisis low set 2/02).
• Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $16.9b on Tuesday versus $6.9b on Friday and $18.5b the previous Tuesday. Monday was a holiday.
• The 10-DMA stands at $16.8b.

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates For This Week and May

The “QC” Geopolitical Risk Monitor

Updates are in BOLD print!

Have a great evening!
Ron Quigley, Managing Director and Head of Fixed Income Syndicate

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches (more…)

Quigley’s Corner 05.18.18 Investment Grade Debt Market Commentary:Spotlight On Synchrony Bank

Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap – Synchrony Bank Owns the Friday Leaderboard

Today’s IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates For This Week and May

Global Market Recap

The Best and the Brightest” Syndicate Forecasts and Sound Bites for Next Week

The “QC” Geopolitical Risk Monitor

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

This Week’s IG New Issues and Where They’re Trading

Indexes and New Issue Volume

2018 Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending May 16^th

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

IG Credit Spreads by Industry

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

UST Resistance/Support Table

Today Synchrony Bank (wholly-owned subsidiary of Synchrony Financial NYSE:SYF) owned the IG dollar primary market leaderboard with its $750mm 3(a)5 exempt 3-year senior bank notes transaction. What’s more, Mischler Financial, the nation’s oldest Service Disabled Veteran-owned and operated broker dealer was honored to be named as an active 1.00% Co-Manager. Thank you to stalwart Chris Coffey who is no stranger to diversity and inclusion mandates in our DCM. Chris was there from the get-go back in his days at MBNA when during his time he helped steer that issuer to become a founding father of inclusion transactions along with some other large FIGs. That pre-dates Chris’ GECC days! We appreciate SYF’s patronage and our active role today. Thank you as well to both Citigroup and MUFG Syndicate and of course, to the best darn middle markets distribution network on the street for your loyalty and continued belief in and support of the “value-added” proposition. Congrats also to Chris for his first Friday print at SYF and for his efforts in continuing to implement and guide a stellar diversity mandate that saw 7 diversity firms on today’s new 3-year that included a Service Disabled Veteran-owned broker-dealer three African-American-owned BDs a Hispanic-American owned firm, and a Woman-owned firm.

Today’s final Synchrony order book finished at just over $1.8b making the deal 2.40-times oversubscribed.  Concession on today’s deal was negative 2 bps given new 5-year SYF bank paper is +135. Adjusting <35> bps for the 3s/5s curve gets you to +100 against today’s final T+98 pricing pegs NIC as <2> bps.  A nice day for SYF, the leads and congratulations to Chris on a successful first Friday print at Synchrony! Net, net – a VERY GOOD RESULT for all!

Overseas in the EU two new issues were postponed including the first in 2018 for an investment grade rated issuer pointing to investor fatigue following one of the busier weeks of the year. Here’s a look at the WTD and MTD IG Corporate new issue volume as measured against syndicate desk estimates:

• The IG Corporate WTD total is 96.86% of this week’s syndicate midpoint average forecast or $32.855b vs. $33.92b.
• MTD we’ve priced 68.69% of the syndicate forecast for April IG Corporate new issuance or $92.625b vs. $134.84b.
• There are now 17 issuers in the IG credit pipeline.

Today’s IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

• The average spread compression from IPTs and/or guidance thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 1 IG Corporate-only new issue was <14.50> bps.
• BAML’s IG Master Index was unchanged at +114. (It’s post-Crisis low is +90 set on 2/01).
• Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS widened 1 bp to 1.09 vs. at 1.08.  (0.85 is its post-Crisis low set on 1/30).
• Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread was unchanged at +147. (+125 represents its post-Crisis low set 2/02).
• Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $19.7b on Thursday versus $20.8b on Wednesday and $19.1b the previous Thursday.
• The 10-DMA stands at $17.9b.
• Taking a look at the secondary trading performance of this week’s 43 IG new issues comprised of 38 IG Corporates and 5 SSAs new issues 25 tightened versus NIP for a 58.25% improvement rate, 13 widened  (30.25%) and 5 were flat (11.50%).
• For the week ended May 16^th, Lipper U.S. Fund Flows reported a net inflow of $3.069b into Corporate Investment Grade Funds (2018 YTD net inflow of $40.444b) and a net outflow of $541.871m from High Yield Funds (2018 YTD net outflow of $15.381b).
  

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates For This Week and May

Global Market Recap

• U.S. Treasuries – ended a poor week with a solid rally.
• Overseas Bonds – JGB’s unchanged. Bunds/Gilts rallied. Peripheral bonds were hit.
• SOFR – 1.74% FROM 1.75%.
• 3mth Libor – 2.32938% from 2.33125%.
• Stocks – Mixed as of 3pm.
• Overseas Stocks – Asia closed higher. Europe lost ground.
• Economic – Nothing on the calendar today.
• Overseas Economic- – Japan CPI was very tame. Europe inflation data MoM was higher.
• Currencies – DXY Index traded at a YTD high, Euro YTD low and ADXY Index at a YTD low.
• Commodities – Crude small loss. Gold up and copper down. Wheat saw a big rally.
• CDX IG: +0.82 to 61.73
• CDX HY: +1.60 to 340.22
• CDX EM: +5.30 to 170.73
• VIX: -0.09 to 13.34

*CDX levels are as of 3:30PM ET today.

-Tony Farren, Managing Director, Rates Trading

This Week’s IG New Issues and Where They’re Trading 

Taking a look at the secondary trading performance of this week’s 43 IG new issues comprised of 38 IG Corporates and 5 SSAs new issues 25 tightened versus NIP for a 58.25% improvement rate, 13 widened  (30.25%) and 5 were flat (11.50%).

The Best and the Brightest” Syndicate Forecasts and Sound Bites for Next Week

Thanks as always for tuning in to the daily “QC”, enjoy your read in preparation for the week ahead along with my impassioned plea to enjoy a fabulous weekend with you and yours!

Okay, the fixed income syndicate sound test is complete.  I have over 3,500 readers in the audience. Fade out the overture. Lights, camera, action!:

I am happy to announce that the “QC” once again received 100% unanimous participation from all 24 desks surveyed for today’s “Best & Brightest” Syndicate edition!  Thank you to all of them. 21 of today’s respondents are in the top 22 syndicate desks including 21 of the top 24 according to today’s Bloomberg U.S. IG U.S. Investment Grade Corporate Bond underwriting league table.  The 2018 League table can be found on your terminals at “LEAG” + [GO] after which you select (U.S. Investment Grade Corporates).  The participating desks represent 81.00% of all IG dollar-denominated new issue underwriting as of today’s table share percentage which simply means they are the ones with visibility.  But it’s not only about their volume forecasts, it’s also about their comments!  This core syndicate group does it best; they know best; so they are the ones you WANT and NEED to hear from.  It’s a great look at the week ahead.

*Please note that these are Investment Grade Corporates only. They do not include SSA issuance unless otherwise noted.  

As always “thank you” to all the syndicate desks that participated in today’s survey.  I greatly appreciate your time to contribute and for making this edition of the “QC” among the most widely read! You are helping to promote Mischler’s value-added DCM proposition while adding readership to the “QC” that won Wall Street Letter’s Award as Best Broker Dealer Research in our financial services industry for three consecutive years – 2014, 2015 and 2016 !  Syndicate Desks: Please Note that we had a Friday print today from “SYF” so I updated the below survey question data to reflect Synchrony Bank’s 3-year new issue. If you notice any differences that’s why. Thanks! -RQ

As always, before we get to the technical data let’s first review this week’s top geopolitical risk factors:

• 5/17 – Kim Jong-un warned that the de-nuclearization summit could be compromised due to John Bolton’s paralleling a NOKO-U.S. de-nuke deal with the Libyan “model of nuclear abandonment.” Bolton is highly qualified but needs to tone down and save the rhetoric for if and when needed – not prior to the historic summit.
• 5/14 – Although Pres. Trump reversed sanctions on China’s ZTE telecom it was done in exchange for China agreeing not to impose tariffs on U.S. agricultural products that had been levied in response to Trump’s earlier steel and aluminum tariffs.
• 5/14 – Tensions mounted in the Middle East as Israeli troops fired on protesting Palestinians along the fenced Gaza strip killing 55 and wounding over 1,700. More violent and armed men were intermingled with the mostly peaceful Palestinian demonstrators including families with children. Once they burst through fencing Israeli snipers began to shoot into the onrushing crowd. The protest happened to coincide with the opening of the U.S. embassy in Jerusalem leaving friction at its highest level in years in the historic conflict.  
• 5/16 – U.S. interest rates: The strong U.S. economy is supporting rising UST yields. T2s & 5s reached highs since 2008; CT10 since 2011 and the LB peaked at 3.10% (2015) a higher yield trading band is established. The sensitivity of EM currencies to higher rates is chronic. Combined with their own additional political risks, EM risks falling out of favor as currencies fall out of bed. 
• 5/17 – Pressure on UK PM Theresa May mounts as Britain’s House of Lords dealt BREXIT its 15^th defeat, this time over environmental protections issues by a 54%-46% margin. In addition, friction intensified between supporters of a post-BREXIT customs partnership with the EU vs. resistance by those who support technology to monitor the critical border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.
• May 2018 Terror Event MTD Casualty Total: 79 terrorist attacks; 618 dead; 781 wounded.
• 5/17 – Italy’s two ant-establishment parties 5-Star and League plan tough immigration reform, lifting all sanctions against Russia, creating 2 tax brackets of 15 and 20%, dropping a previously increased retirement age and a citizen’s income for the poor. Wishful thinking!
  

Now let’s take a look at the critical week-on-week primary market stats: 

• The IG Corporate WTD total stands at $32.855b. We priced $1.065b less than this week’s average midpoint estimate of $33.92b or <3.14%>.
• MTD we priced 68.69% of the syndicate midpoint forecast for IG Corporate new issuance or $92.625b vs. $134.84b.
• Entering today’s session, the YTD IG Corporate-only volume is $557.296b vs. the $574.314b YoY which is <$17.018b> or <2.96%> less than a year ago.
• The all-in or IG Corporate plus SSA YTD volume is $705.361b vs. $717.956b YoY making it  <$12.595b> or <1.75%> less than vs. 2017.
  

Here are the five key primary market driver averages for the 57 IG Corporate-only deals that priced this week: 

• NICS:  4.59 bps  
• Oversubscription Rates: 2.96x
• Tenors: 10.18 years
• Tranche Sizes: $842mm
• Spread Compression from IPTs to the Launch: <15.12> bps
  

Here’s how this week’s critical primary market data compares against last week’s numbers: 

• Week on week, average NICs widened 0.49 bps to an average 4.59 bps vs. 4.10 bps across this week’s 43 IG Corporate-only new issues that displayed relative value.
• Over subscription or bid-to-cover rates, the measure of demand, increased by 0.26x to an average 2.96x vs. 2.70x. 
• Average tenors extended by 3.14 years to an average 10.18 years vs. 7.04 years.
• Tranche sizes increased by $37mm to $842mm vs. $805mm last week.
• Spread compression from IPTs to the launch/final pricing of this week’s 43 IG Corporate-only new issues tightened by 2.21 bps to <15.12> bps vs. <12.91> bps.
• Standard and Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread tightened 1 bps to +147  bps vs. +148 week-on-week. 
• Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS thru this morning tightened 2 bps to 1.09 vs. 1.11 week-on-week.
• Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $19.7b on Thursday versus $20.8b on Wednesday and $19.1b the previous Thursday.  
• The 10-DMA stands at $17.9b.
• The VIX widened 0.78 or 6.16% to 13.43 at yesterday’s close vs. last Friday’s 12.65 close.

• Week-on-week, BAML’s IG Master Index tightened 2.00 bps to +114 vs. +116 week-on-week.  
• Spreads across the four IG asset classes tightened 2.00 bps week-on-week to 18.75 vs. 20.75 bps as measured against its cumulative post-Crisis low.
• Spreads across the 19 major IG industry sectors tightened 1.89 bps to an average 25.11 vs. 27.00 bps as measured against their average cumulative post-Crisis lows!
• For the week ended May 16^th, Lipper U.S. Fund Flows reported a net inflow of $3.069b into Corporate Investment Grade Funds (2018 YTD net inflow of $40.444b) and a net outflow of $541.871m from High Yield Funds (2018 YTD net outflow of $15.381b).

Entering today’s Friday session here’s a look at this week’s IG issuance volume totals:

• IG Corps: $32.855b
• All-in IG (Corps + SSA): $37.355b

And now it’s time for today’s question posed to the senior members of the Industry’s top 24  fixed income syndicate desks: “What are your thoughts and numbers for next week’s IG Corporate new issue volume?”
 

Please know that on each and every new issue, the guy-in-the-corner is ALWAYS in YOUR corner on deal day! If an issuer asks you who are some of the best diversity firms are, my hope is that you’ll mention Mischler Financial and the guy-in-the-corner.  Our distribution is high quality, prolific and consistent. On deal day, we perform enough to influence your bid-to-cover rates with REAL high quality and unpadded “sticky” investor orders. The “QC” won Wall Street Letter’s Award as Best Broker Dealer Research in our financial services industry for three consecutive years….2014, 2015 and 2016! But most of all we have a great certification-the nation’s oldest Service Disabled Veteran owned and operated broker dealer.

Wishing you and yours a wonderful weekend!
Ron Quigley, Managing Director, Head of Fixed Income Syndicate

The “Best and the Brightest” in Their Own Words

(more…)

Quigley’s Corner 05.16.18 – Financial Markets Rating Impact of Higher Interest Rates: Trading at the Corner of Wall Street & Hollywood Blvd.

Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap – Wall Street & Hollywood; Reality & Illusion

Today’s IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates For This Week and May

Global Market Recap

The “QC” Geopolitical Risk Monitor

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

New Issues Priced

2018 Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending May 9^th       

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

IG Credit Spreads by Industry

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline Highlights

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

Tomorrow’s Calendar

Today the suddenly subdued IG dollar DCM hosted one $800mm two-part deal from Harley-Davidson Financial Services in the form of a 2-year FRN and a 3-year fixed rate senior unsecured transaction. In fact, the SSA space outperformed on the volume front thanks to Kommuninvest’s $1b 3-year bringing the all-in IG day total to 2 issuers, 3 tranches and a mere $1.8b…………What gives?  Well, look at the CT10-year that closed out yesterday’s session yielding 3.07% and 3.10% today. U.S. interest rates are going up, though they’ve been tame thus far as they begin their trajectory.

In speaking with Mischler’s resident Treasury guru Tony Farren about the subject of rising rates today, the very first week of 2018 (Jan. 2-5) saw the 2yr (1.891%), 5yr (2.213%), 10yr (2.416%) and the 30yr (2.749%) all trading at their 2018 YTD low yields. Fast forward to today – both the 2yr (2.589%) and 5yr (2.941%) are at the highest yields since 2008; the 10yr (3.10%) is at its highest yield dating back to 2011 while the CT30yr (3.22%) came to within 1 bp of its YTD high which was the highest yield since 2015. The market IS and always has been ahead of the curve, while the Fed has ALWAYS and will forever be a market laggard. It’s the nature of the beast we call “the market.”  Rates are finding a new level and that level is HIGHER folks!

Things could certainly be changing especially after S.F. Fed Chief Williams’ comments yesterday in which he said he’s “very positive” on the domestic economic outlook and shared his view that we can sustain 3 to 4 rate hikes in 2018!  The statement has more impact than it typically would, especially considering that Mr Williams will soon upgrade to a much more powerful role as the NY Fed Chief. There is a large contingent of people and market participants who would like to see Fed-speak banned (other than post-FOMC Press Conferences and Q&A). Still, rates are going up folks. Just have a look at the emboldened U.S. dollar for evidence. Look at Emerging Markets, especially Argentina and Turkey. They are signals not only of their own domestic issue,s but also the rising rate environment.  Sprinkle on some powerful geopolitical risk factors like the bubbling Middle East, Iran vs. the unlikely Dynamic Duo that is quickly becoming Saudi Arabia and Israel, and Kim Jong-un’s recent comments threatening to un-schedule the June 12^th denuclearization talks.  China, Italy, Washington dysfunction – they are all among the starring players in an endlessly rewritten historical epic scenario that beckons a script doctor’s skills to fill in the holes, add some character arcs and tie all the plots and subplots together to achieve a nice, neat denouement.  Guess what? That happy ending is not coming; after all, this is the reality, not illusion and we, readers are realists.  This is Wall Street, not Hollywood. At least I think and hope so.

So, the 3.095% CT10yr yield was the wake-up call that gave pause for today.  We are also running $7b shy of this week’s syndicate estimate, but tomorrow’s another day!

Here’s a look at the WTD and MTD IG Corporate new issue volume as measured against syndicate desk estimates:

• The IG Corporate WTD total is 79.32% of this week’s syndicate midpoint average forecast or $26.905b vs. $33.92b.
• MTD we’ve priced 64.28% of the syndicate forecast for April IG Corporate new issuance or $86.675b vs. $134.84b.
• There are now 15 issuers in the IG credit pipeline.

Today’s IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

• The average spread compression from IPTs and/or guidance thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 2 IG Corporate-only new issues was <15.00> bps.
• BAML’s IG Master Index was unchanged at +114. (It’s post-Crisis low is +90 set on 2/01).
• Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS widened 1 bp to 1.09 vs. at 1.08.  (0.85 is its post-Crisis low set on 1/30).
• Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread tightened 1 bp to +145 vs. +146. (+125 represents its post-Crisis low set 2/02).
• Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $19.9b on Tuesday versus $16b on Monday and $17.4b the previous Tuesday.
• The 10-DMA stands at $17.4b.

 Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates For This Week and May

 Global Market Recap

• U.S. Treasuries – Small losses. 2yr reached its highest yield since 2008.
• Overseas Bonds – JGB’s mixed. Bunds/Gilts better. Italy/Greece hit very hard.
• SOFR – 1.79% from 1.70%.
• 3mth Libor – 2.32563% from 2.32063%.
• Stocks – Solid gains at 3pm with the NASDAQ leading the way.
• Overseas Stocks – Asia closed down. Europe more green than red. Italy hit hard.
• Economic – Mixed U.S. data with more good than bad.
• Overseas Economic – Japan GDP was negative. EU, Germany and Italy CPI’s were tame.
• Currencies – DXY Index traded at its YTD high and the Euro its YTD low.
• Commodities – Small gains. Gold hit its YTD low. Gasoline reached its high since 2014.
• CDX IG: -0.59 to 60.68
• CDX HY: -2.45 to 338.22
• CDX EM: -2.13 to 158.88
• VIX: -1.19 to 13.44

*CDX levels are as of 3:30PM ET today.

-Tony Farren

The “QC” Geopolitical Risk Monitor

(more…)

Quigley’s Corner 05.08.18: Iran Deal Scuttled; IG Debt Market Recap: Dynamite Deal Day for General Dynamics  

Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap – Big Time Volume But Stuck at“The Number” Again. NYSE:GD, NYSE:VZ

Today’s IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates For This Week and May

Vaya Con Dios to Bloomberg Bob, a Great Man and a Dear Friend

Global Market Recap

The “QC” Geopolitical Risk Monitor

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

New Issues Priced

Indexes and New Issue Volume

2018 Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending May 2^nd      

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

IG Credit Spreads by Industry

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

Tomorrow’s Calendar

Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap – Big Time Volume But Stuck at“The Number” Again. NYSE:GD, NYSE:VZ
Today the IG dollar DCM hosted 7 issuers across 18 tranches totalling $15.539b. 48.3% of that total came in the form of the General Dynamics (NYSE:GD) 7-part transaction –which totalled $7.5b, and runner-up award to Verizon Communications (NYSE:VZ), which brought $1.788b to the corporate treasury. The SSA space was inactive again. Although the deals are clearing for issuers 10 of today’s 17 IG Corporate tranches were guided “at the number!”  Something to keep an eye on. Here’s a look at the WTD and MTD IG Corporate new issue volume as measured against syndicate desk estimates:

• The IG Corporate WTD total is 74.35% of this week’s syndicate midpoint average forecast or $23.389b vs. $31.46b.
• MTD we’ve priced 27.64% of the syndicate forecast for April IG Corporate new issuance or $37.264b vs. $134.84b.
• There are now 9 issuers in the IG credit pipeline.

Today’s IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

• The average spread compression from IPTs and/or guidance thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 17 IG Corporate-only new issues was <11.09> bps.
• BAML’s IG Master Index was unchanged at +117. (It’s post-Crisis low is +90 set on 2/01).
• Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS was unchanged at +1.12.  (0.85 is its post-Crisis low set on 1/30).
• Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread was unchanged at +149. (+125 represents its post-Crisis low set 2/02).
• Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $14.1b on Monday versus $13.9b on Friday and $20.9b the previous Monday.
• The 10-DMA stands at $18.1b. 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates For This Week and May

Vaya Con Dios to Bloomberg Bob, a Great Man and a Dear Friend

You have all read in the QC about how I frequently turn the lights off and lock the door behind me here at our nation’s oldest Service Disabled Veteran owned & operated broker-dealer. We always leave it on the floor, driven by a desire to be the best we can be and to always be allegiant to our value-added reputation as providing best in class debt capital market coverage and distribution.  It’s all about delivering high-quality work for our issuers and joint leads while building a sustainable and lasting company. We take great pride in that for we know that one day all we ever really take with us is our reputation.  It’s also what people will most remember us by.  Well, this evening, I got your attention with Bloomberg’s logo above but it’s about the manifestation of a mandate at a world-class company that has a culture unique to itself.  If one were to do a case study of corporate cultures, the names, IBM, GE, Apple, Disney and Bloomberg come to mind.  Each company has its family of employees while others are legendary for their work environments and commitment to make “lifers” out of their personnel. Tonight’s story is about Bloomberg’s commitment to veterans and a tribute/send-off to one veteran, in particular, Bob Elson who many of my 3,501 readers have also come to know.

This is not a deal drill-down day, during which I typically help promote an issuer’s diversity mandate and often more specifically, our veteran and service-disabled veteran certification. So, instead of going granular re General Dynamics’ massive debt issuance, tonight I’ve decided to do something different. Tonight I want to pay tribute to a business news industry legend.

I remember working at Merrill when I sat next to Mac Barnes on our trading floor. Mac was a legendary original Bloomberg programmer and techno-wizard who started with Michael Bloomberg way back when. He was also a super good guy.  Michael had been offered a nascent technology position by Merrill well before tech was remotely considered en vogue. In fact, it was anything but. It meant “the writing was on the wall.”  What emerged from that experiment is the Bloomberg we know today.  When the going gets tough, the tough get going, as they say.  Michael Bloomberg never looked back. His net worth is, as of today $51.2b………... Quite an achievement!

Mike Bloomberg may be a multi-billionaire, but he also knows that mandates at any company start from the top down.  Which brings me to veterans at Bloomberg.

In Mike’s own words, “Veterans have just the kind of leadership, discipline, and work ethic you need to launch a successful business and create jobs and we’re determined to help more veterans succeed.” The businessman, engineer, author, politician and philanthropist knows that both the military and Bloomberg embody a common spirit: the mission comes first. Teamwork. Communication. Adaptability. Integrity. Those are just some of the skills and characteristics that transfer well from military service to a career at Bloomberg.  Mike upped his game by recruiting veterans in software development, sales, data analysis, customer service and network support as well as in the newsroom to showcase the places at his company where veterans should look to work. He knew early on those employees who have served or currently serve in the military, military families and supporters who promote and maintain Bloomberg as a military-friendly work environment stay connected through the Bloomberg Military & Veterans Community. We here at Mischler embrace and endorse that kind of thinking.

Bob Elson, US Army Spec 5; Bloomberg LP

However, I’d like to go one further by highlighting one of those veterans whose last day is coming at Bloomberg next Tuesday, May 15^th – Robert “Bob” Elson formerly the Bob from the now defunct but legendary Ed and Bob Show that was Bloomberg’s First Word new issue team.  I’ve known Bob since he joined Bloomberg and enjoyed our daily rapport.  He is the consummate professional, all about journalistic integrity, checking data sources multiple times before going out with anything on the tapes and a legend on Wall Street. Along with having logged 47 years working in our financial services industry comes a Yoda-like wisdom about and sense of our global financial markets. For all those millennials out there who have logged their first 10 years and are only now starting to see what an interest rate hike looks like, it’s critical to latch onto the knowledge that market professionals such as Bob Elson possess.  It’s invaluable. Bob certainly deserves his reputation as “Bond Salesman to the Stars Since 1971.”

When my Dad passed away last December, while the family gathered at his wake, Bob was the first person to sign in to pay his respects to our family.  That is the kind of person he is and friend he has become.

As I mentioned Bob’s last day will be next Tuesday, May 15^th.  I wanted to scribe something in Bob’s honour BEFORE his last day. This way, you can reach out to Bob prior to his departure. Bob has left an indelible mark in the Bloomberg newsroom. I will personally miss his professional expertise, his unmatched experience although I look forward to more frequent lunches as they’ll be easier to come by given our proximity here in Stamford, Connecticut to his home in Westport. The Bloomberg chat room that both Ed and Bob years ago named “Quigmeister” will be a less active one. When in the throes of covering over 120 accounts, running order books and writing relative value and D&I stories I could always rely on Bob’s comic relief that would get me through the realization that I’d once again be sending my “QC” with an obscenely late time stamp. People come and go in this business and the ones you keep around long after are more than just good minds, great journalists, and experienced market professionals. They become friends.

For those who may not have known, Bob also proudly served his nation in Vietnam joining the U.S. Army in 1968. Following basic training at the Fort Eustis installation near Newport News, Virginia, Bob served in the First Infantry Division (The Big Red One) seeing action in Lai Khe, Vietnam. For those who may not know, Lai Khe was probably the most rocketed base camp in Vietnam except for Khe Sanh during the siege. Bob humbly recalls the sign that hung prominently at the camp’s entry that read, “Welcome to Rocket City.” Bob may well have cultivated his keen sense of humour and comic relief from the legendary Bob Hope who visited the base for his Christmas show. Hope greeted the crowd saying “Here we are in Lai Khe. I’ve been here five minutes and I don’t Like Kaye!  Bob was then off to 1^st Field Force Headquarters in Nha Trang returning home in 1970 as a Spec 5 having earned a Bronze Star with Oak Leaf Cluster for service.

It is comforting to know that there’s a place like Bloomberg that gave our veteran a home in his later years. I must say, however, I wish it was longer stay though.

To my good friend, journalist and veteran, it is NEVER fun to see someone ride off into the sunset but as they say, old soldiers never die they simply…………and I choose not to finish that quote, folks!

Thank you for your friendship, professionalism, foresight, advice and market wisdom all these years. Having served on no deals today you Bob Elson are the reason why I’m, turning off the lights and locking the front door here at Mischler Financial this evening.  I’d like you and all 3,501 “QC” readers to know that this edition has been my privilege and honour to write.

Vaya Con Dios my friend! Please reach out to Bob Elson on your Bloomberg terminals to give our military veteran and financial services veteran the send-off he truly deserves.

Thank you all and as always, have a great evening!

Below please find a complete synopsis of the day’s debt capital market activity as seen from the perch of the nation’s oldest investment bank / institutional brokerage owned & operated by Service-Disabled Veterans.

Ron Quigley, Managing Director, Head of Fixed Income Syndicate

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