Quigley’s Corner 05.08.18: Iran Deal Scuttled; IG Debt Market Recap: Dynamite Deal Day for General Dynamics
Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap – Big Time Volume But Stuck at“The Number” Again. NYSE:GD, NYSE:VZ
Today’s IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points
Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates For This Week and May
Vaya Con Dios to Bloomberg Bob, a Great Man and a Dear Friend
Global Market Recap
The “QC” Geopolitical Risk Monitor
NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches
New Issues Priced
Indexes and New Issue Volume
2018 Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending May 2nd
IG Credit Spreads by Rating
IG Credit Spreads by Industry
New Issue Pipeline
M&A Pipeline
Economic Data Releases
Rates Trading Lab
Tomorrow’s Calendar
Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap – Big Time Volume But Stuck at“The Number” Again. NYSE:GD, NYSE:VZ
Today the IG dollar DCM hosted 7 issuers across 18 tranches totalling $15.539b. 48.3% of that total came in the form of the General Dynamics (NYSE:GD) 7-part transaction – which totalled $7.5b, and runner-up award to Verizon Communications (NYSE:VZ), which brought $1.788b to the corporate treasury. The SSA space was inactive again. Although the deals are clearing for issuers 10 of today’s 17 IG Corporate tranches were guided “at the number!” Something to keep an eye on. Here’s a look at the WTD and MTD IG Corporate new issue volume as measured against syndicate desk estimates:
- The IG Corporate WTD total is 74.35% of this week’s syndicate midpoint average forecast or $23.389b vs. $31.46b.
- MTD we’ve priced 27.64% of the syndicate forecast for April IG Corporate new issuance or $37.264b vs. $134.84b.
- There are now 9 issuers in the IG credit pipeline.
Today’s IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points
- The average spread compression from IPTs and/or guidance thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 17 IG Corporate-only new issues was <11.09> bps.
- BAML’s IG Master Index was unchanged at +117. (It’s post-Crisis low is +90 set on 2/01).
- Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS was unchanged at +1.12. (0.85 is its post-Crisis low set on 1/30).
- Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread was unchanged at +149. (+125 represents its post-Crisis low set 2/02).
- Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $14.1b on Monday versus $13.9b on Friday and $20.9b the previous Monday.
- The 10-DMA stands at $18.1b.
Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates For This Week and May
| IG Corporate New Issuance | This Week 5/07-5/11 |
vs. Current WTD – $23.389b |
May 2018 | vs. Current MTD – $37.264b |
| Low-End Avg. | $30.83b | 75.86% | $133.64b | 27.88% |
| Midpoint Avg. | $31.46b | 74.35% | $134.84b | 27.64% |
| High-End Avg. | $32.08b | 72.91% | $136.04b | 27.39% |
| The High | $20b | 116.945% | $110b | 33.88% |
| The Low | $40b | 58.47% | $150b | 24.84% |
Vaya Con Dios to Bloomberg Bob, a Great Man and a Dear Friend
You have all read in the QC about how I frequently turn the lights off and lock the door behind me here at our nation’s oldest Service Disabled Veteran owned & operated broker-dealer. We always leave it on the floor, driven by a desire to be the best we can be and to always be allegiant to our value-added reputation as providing best in class debt capital market coverage and distribution. It’s all about delivering high-quality work for our issuers and joint leads while building a sustainable and lasting company. We take great pride in that for we know that one day all we ever really take with us is our reputation. It’s also what people will most remember us by. Well, this evening, I got your attention with Bloomberg’s logo above but it’s about the manifestation of a mandate at a world-class company that has a culture unique to itself. If one were to do a case study of corporate cultures, the names, IBM, GE, Apple, Disney and Bloomberg come to mind. Each company has its family of employees while others are legendary for their work environments and commitment to make “lifers” out of their personnel. Tonight’s story is about Bloomberg’s commitment to veterans and a tribute/send-off to one veteran, in particular, Bob Elson who many of my 3,501 readers have also come to know.
This is not a deal drill-down day, during which I typically help promote an issuer’s diversity mandate and often more specifically, our veteran and service-disabled veteran certification. So, instead of going granular re General Dynamics’ massive debt issuance, tonight I’ve decided to do something different. Tonight I want to pay tribute to a business news industry legend.
I remember working at Merrill when I sat next to Mac Barnes on our trading floor. Mac was a legendary original Bloomberg programmer and techno-wizard who started with Michael Bloomberg way back when. He was also a super good guy. Michael had been offered a nascent technology position by Merrill well before tech was remotely considered en vogue. In fact, it was anything but. It meant “the writing was on the wall.” What emerged from that experiment is the Bloomberg we know today. When the going gets tough, the tough get going, as they say. Michael Bloomberg never looked back. His net worth is, as of today $51.2b………. Quite an achievement!
Mike Bloomberg may be a multi-billionaire, but he also knows that mandates at any company start from the top down. Which brings me to veterans at Bloomberg.
In Mike’s own words, “Veterans have just the kind of leadership, discipline, and work ethic you need to launch a successful business and create jobs and we’re determined to help more veterans succeed.” The businessman, engineer, author, politician and philanthropist knows that both the military and Bloomberg embody a common spirit: the mission comes first. Teamwork. Communication. Adaptability. Integrity. Those are just some of the skills and characteristics that transfer well from military service to a career at Bloomberg. Mike upped his game by recruiting veterans in software development, sales, data analysis, customer service and network support as well as in the newsroom to showcase the places at his company where veterans should look to work. He knew early on those employees who have served or currently serve in the military, military families and supporters who promote and maintain Bloomberg as a military-friendly work environment stay connected through the Bloomberg Military & Veterans Community. We here at Mischler embrace and endorse that kind of thinking.
Bob Elson, US Army Spec 5; Bloomberg LP
However, I’d like to go one further by highlighting one of those veterans whose last day is coming at Bloomberg next Tuesday, May 15th – Robert “Bob” Elson formerly the Bobfrom the now defunct but legendary Ed and Bob Show that was Bloomberg’s First Word new issue team. I’ve known Bob since he joined Bloomberg and enjoyed our daily rapport. He is the consummate professional, all about journalistic integrity, checking data sources multiple times before going out with anything on the tapes and a legend on Wall Street. Along with having logged 47 years working in our financial services industry comes a Yoda-like wisdom about and sense of our global financial markets. For all those millennials out there who have logged their first 10 years and are only now starting to see what an interest rate hike looks like, it’s critical to latch onto the knowledge that market professionals such as Bob Elson possess. It’s invaluable. Bob certainly deserves his reputation as “Bond Salesman to the Stars Since 1971.”
When my Dad passed away last December, while the family gathered at his wake, Bob was the first person to sign in to pay his respects to our family. That is the kind of person he is and friend he has become.
As I mentioned Bob’s last day will be next Tuesday, May 15th. I wanted to scribe something in Bob’s honour BEFORE his last day. This way, you can reach out to Bob prior to his departure. Bob has left an indelible mark in the Bloomberg newsroom. I will personally miss his professional expertise, his unmatched experience although I look forward to more frequent lunches as they’ll be easier to come by given our proximity here in Stamford, Connecticut to his home in Westport. The Bloomberg chat room that both Ed and Bob years ago named “Quigmeister” will be a less active one. When in the throes of covering over 120 accounts, running order books and writing relative value and D&I stories I could always rely on Bob’s comic relief that would get me through the realization that I’d once again be sending my “QC” with an obscenely late time stamp. People come and go in this business and the ones you keep around long after are more than just good minds, great journalists, and experienced market professionals. They become friends.
For those who may not have known, Bob also proudly served his nation in Vietnam joining the U.S. Army in 1968. Following basic training at the Fort Eustis installation near Newport News, Virginia, Bob served in the First Infantry Division (The Big Red One) seeing action in Lai Khe, Vietnam. For those who may not know, Lai Khe was probably the most rocketed base camp in Vietnam except for Khe Sanh during the siege. Bob humbly recalls the sign that hung prominently at the camp’s entry that read, “Welcome to Rocket City.” Bob may well have cultivated his keen sense of humour and comic relief from the legendary Bob Hope who visited the base for his Christmas show. Hope greeted the crowd saying “Here we are in Lai Khe. I’ve been here five minutes and I don’t Like Kaye! Bob was then off to 1st Field Force Headquarters in Nha Trang returning home in 1970 as a Spec 5 having earned a Bronze Star with Oak Leaf Cluster for service.
It is comforting to know that there’s a place like Bloomberg that gave our veteran a home in his later years. I must say, however, I wish it was longer stay though.
To my good friend, journalist and veteran, it is NEVER fun to see someone ride off into the sunset but as they say, old soldiers never die they simply…………and I choose not to finish that quote, folks!
Thank you for your friendship, professionalism, foresight, advice and market wisdom all these years. Having served on no deals today you Bob Elson are the reason why I’m, turning off the lights and locking the front door here at Mischler Financial this evening. I’d like you and all 3,501 “QC” readers to know that this edition has been my privilege and honour to write.
Vaya Con Dios my friend! Please reach out to Bob Elson on your Bloomberg terminals to give our military veteran and financial services veteran the send-off he truly deserves.
Thank you all and as always, have a great evening!
Below please find a complete synopsis of the day’s debt capital market activity as seen from the perch of the nation’s oldest investment bank / institutional brokerage owned & operated by Service-Disabled Veterans.
Ron Quigley, Managing Director, Head of Fixed Income Syndicate
Above is the opening extract from Quigley’s Corner aka “QC” Tuesday May 08, 2018 edition distributed via email to institutional investment managers and Fortune Treasury clients of Mischler Financial Group, the investment industry’s oldest minority broker-dealer owned and operated by Service-Disabled Veterans.
Cited by Wall Street Letter in each of 2014, 2015 and 2016 for “Best Research / Broker-Dealer”, the QC is one of three distinctive market comment pieces produced by Mischler Financial Group. The QC is a daily synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary as seen from the perch of our fixed income trading and debt capital markets desk and includes a comprehensive “deep dive” with optics on the day’s investment grade corporate debt new issuance and secondary market data encompassing among other items, comparables, investment grade credit spreads, new issue activity, secondary market most active issues, and upcoming pipeline.
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*Sources: Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, Bloomberg, Bond Radar, Dow Jones Newswire, IFR, Informa Global Markets, Internal Mischler, LCDNews, Market News International, Prospect News, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, S, Thomson Reuters and of course, a career of sources, contacts, movers and shakers from syndicate desks to accounts; from issuers to originators; from academicians to heads of research, and a host of financial journalists, et al.
Mischler Financial Group’s “U.S. Syndicate Closing Commentary” is produced daily by Mischler Financial Group. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner without the permission of Mischler Financial Group. Although the statements of fact have been obtained from and are based upon sources Mischler Financial Group believes reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. Veteran-owned broker-dealer Mischler Financial Group, its affiliates and their respective officers, directors, partners and employees, including persons involved in the preparation of this report, may from time to time maintain a long or short position in, or purchase or sell a position in, hold or act as market-makers or advisors or brokers in relation to the securities (or related securities, financial products, options, warrants, rights, or derivatives), of companies mentioned in this report or be represented on the board of such companies. Neither Mischler Financial Group nor any officer or employee of Mischler Financial Group or any affiliate thereof accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential damages or losses arising from any use of this report or its contents.
