Browsing articles tagged with " veteran-owned broker-dealer"
Muni Market New Issue: NYS Dormitory Authority Mental Health Bonds
June 2018      Muni Market   

Municipal Debt Deals-New Issue Calendar Week of June 25:  NYS Dormitory Authority Mental Health Bonds …Mischler Muni Market Update looks back to last week’s new issuance, muni bond fund flow metrics and a focused lens on the municipal bond offerings for this week.  As always, the Mischler Muni Market Outlook provides public finance investment managers, institutional investors focused on municipal debt and muni bond market participants with a summary of the prior week’s municipal bond market activity, including credit spreads and money flows, and a look at pending municipal finance offerings tentatively scheduled for the most current week.

Last week muni volume was about $6.4 billion. This week volume is expected to be about $5.3 billion. The negotiated market is led by $342.7 million mental health bonds (NYC Issue) for Dormitory Authority of the State of New York. The competitive market is led by $1.5billion Tax and Revenue Anticipation Notes on Tuesday and $335.7 million general obligation bonds in 3 bids on Wednesday for the City of Los Angeles, California.

Below and attached is neither a recommendation or offer to purchase or sell securities. Mischler Financial Group is not a Municipal Advisor. For additional information, please contact Managing Director Richard Tilghman at 203.276.6656

muni-market-new-offerings-june-25-2018

During first half of 2018, and full years 2017 and 2016 alone, minority broker-dealer Mischler Financial Group Inc. underwriting roles (for which MFG has led, co-managed and/or served as selling group member) have included more than $625 Billion (notional value) in new debt and preferred shares issued by Fortune corporations, as well as debt issued by various municipalities and US Government agencies.

Mischler Financial Group is the securities industry’s oldest minority broker-dealer owned and operated by Service-Disabled Veterans. Mischler is also a federally-certified Service-Disabled Veteran-Owned Business Enterprise (SDVOBE).  Mischler Muni Market updates and Municipal Debt New Issuance outlooks are provided as a courtesy to institutional clients of Mischler Financial Group, Inc.

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Debt Markets Remember D-Day: Normandy 1944; Mischler Financial Comment
June 2018      Debt Market Commentary   

Quigley’s Corner 06.06.18 – 17 Issuers, 29 Tranches $11b in New Issuance; Mischler Financial Tribute to D-Day

Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap – WTD IG & SSA Issuance Matches 2018 High as 54 Tranches Price in 3 Sessions!

Today’s IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates For This Week and June

Remembering D-Day

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates For This Week and June

The “QC” Geopolitical Risk Monitor

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

New Issues Priced

Indexes and New Issue Volume 

Global Market Recap

2018 Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending May 30th        

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

IG Credit Spreads by Industry

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

Tomorrow’s Calendar     

Today the IG dollar DCM continued rolling along hosting 8 issuers across 14 tranches totaling $7.20b.  The SSA space added KfW’s $4b 2-year Global Notes new issue bringing the all-in IG day totals to 9 issuers, 15 tranches and $11.20b. Week to date we have now priced 54 tranches matching the 2018 weekly high after only three sessions and including 2 IG rated preferreds and 2 SSA issues.

Here’s a look at the WTD and MTD IG Corporate new issue volume as measured against syndicate desk estimates:

  • The IG Corporate WTD total is 132.53% of this week’s syndicate midpoint average forecast or $33.45b vs. $25.24b.
  • MTD we’ve priced 37.65% of the syndicate forecast for April IG Corporate new issuance or $34.055b vs. $90.44b.
  • There are now 14 issuers in the IG credit pipeline.

Today’s IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

  • NiSource Inc. upsized today’s 144a/REGS $1,000 par PerpNC5 transaction to $400mm from $350mm at the launch and at the tightest side of guidance.
  • The average spread compression from IPTs and/or guidance thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 14 IG Corporate and Preferred-only new issues was <14.07> bps.
  • BAML’s IG Master Index widened 1 bp to +121 vs. +120. (It’s post-Crisis low is +90 set on 2/01).
  • Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS widened 1 bp to 1.15 vs. +1.14 thereby tying its high. (0.85 is its post-Crisis low set on 1/30).
  • Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread widened 1 bp to +153 vs. +152. (+125 represents its post-Crisis low set 2/02).
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $18.3b on Tuesday versus $16b on Wednesday and $21.9b the previous Tuesday.
  • The 10-DMA stands at $17.4b. 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates For This Week and June

 

IG Corporate New Issuance This Week
6/04-6/08
vs. Current
WTD – $33.45mm
June 2018 vs. Current
MTD – $34.055b
Low-End Avg. $24.44b 136.87% $91.24b 37.32%
Midpoint Avg. $25.24b 132.53% $90.44b 37.65%
High-End Avg. $26.04b 128.46% $89.64b 37.99%
The High $20b 167.25% $75b 45.41%
The Low $35b 95.57% $110b 30.96%

Remembering D-Day and the Greatest Generation: 74 years Ago Today

Today marks the 74th anniversary of Operation Overlord, the Allied invasion of Normandy, most commonly known as D-Day. An epic multinational amphibious and airborne operation, D-Day forged partnerships and reinforced trans-Atlantic bonds that remain strong to this day. U.S. service members from 20 units in Europe and the United States have commemorated the D-Day anniversary over the past week in almost 40 locations throughout the Normandy region.

remember-D-Day-Normandy-Mischler-Financial

Never forget!

Have a great evening!
Ron Quigley, Managing Director & Head of Fixed Income Syndicate

 

 

 

*Normandy – American Cemetery

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

 

Here’s a review of this week’s five key primary market driver averages for IG Corporates only through Tuesday’s session followed by the averages over the prior six weeks:

KEY IG CORPORATE
NEW ISSUE DRIVERS
MON.
6/04
TUES.
6/05
AVERAGES
WEEK 5/28
AVERAGES
WEEK 5/21
AVERAGES
WEEK 5/14
AVERAGES
WEEK 5/07
AVERAGES
WEEK 4/30
AVERAGES
WEEK 4/23
New Issue Concessions 6.33 bps 6.61 bps 9.00 bps 9.67 bps 4.59 bps 4.10 bps 5.92 bps 3.63 bps
Oversubscription Rates 2.77x 2.77x 2.73x 2.93x 2.96x 2.70x 2.16x 2.53x
Tenors 7.92 bps 10.40 bps 9.69 yrs 7.70 yrs 10.18 yrs 7.04 yrs 13.17 yrs 9.19 yrs
Tranche Sizes $622mm $741mm $467mm $952mm $842mm $805mm $630mm $786mm
Avg. Spd. Compression
IPTs to Launch
<13.38> bps <13.51> bps <8.23> bps <18.71> yrs <15.12> bps <12.91> bps <12.54> bps <13.85> bps

 

New Issues Priced

Today’s recap of visitors to our IG dollar Corporate and SSA DCM:

Please Note: for ratings I use the better two of Moody’s, S&P or Fitch.

 

IG

Issuer Ratings Coupon Maturity Size IPTs GUIDANCE LAUNCH PRICED LEADS
Alliant Energy Finance Baa1/A- 3.75% 6/15/2023 400 +115a +100a (+/-5) +95 +95 BAML/JPM/MIZ
Alliant Energy Finance Baa1/A- 4.25% 6/15/2028 300 +145a +135a (+/-5) +130 +130 BAML/JPM/MIZ
Compass Bank Baa2/BBB+ FRN 6/11/2021 450 3mL+equiv 3mL+73 the # 3mL+73 3mL+73 BBVA/CITI/GS/MS
Compass Bank Baa2/BBB+ 3.50% 6/11/2021 700 +110a +95 the # +95 +95 BBVA/CITI/GS/MS
Credit Suisse Group AG BBB+/A- FRN 6NC5
6/12/2024
750 3mL+equiv N/A 3mL+124 3mL+124 CS-sole
Credit Suisse Group AG BBB+/A- 4.207% 6NC5
6/12/2024
1,250 +150a N/A +140 +140
Reset:
3mL+124
CS-sole
Edwards Life Sciences Baa2/BBB- 4.30% 6/15/2028 600 +150-155/+152.5a +140a (+/-5) +135 +135 BAML/JPM (a) + 4 (p)
Jackson Na’l. Life Glbl. Fdg. A1/AA- FRN 6/11/2021 500 3mL+equiv 3mL+48-50 3mL+48 3mL+48 BAML/DB/GS/JPM
Jackson Na’l. Life Glbl. Fdg. A1/AA- 3.30% 6/11/2021 300 +80-85/+82.5a +70-72 +70 +70 BAML/DB/GS/JPM
Jackson Na’l. Life Glbl. Fdg. A1/AA- 3.875% 6/11/2025 400 +110a +98-100 +98 +98 BAML/DB/GS/JPM
KeyBank NA/Cleveland, OH A3/A- 3.35% 6/15/2021 500 +85a +72a (+/-2) +70 +70 GS/JPM/KEY/MS
NiSource Inc. Baa2/BBB+ 3.65% 6/15/2023 350 +105-110/+107.5a +90a (+/-2.5) +87.5 +87.5 CS/JPM/MS/MUFG
NiSource Inc. BBB-/BB+ 5.65% PerpNC5 400 5.875%a 5.70%a (+/-5) 5.65% $1000 par CS/JPM/MS/MUFG
Western Union Co. Baa2/BBB+ 4.25% 6/09/2023 300 +145a N/A +145 +145 BAML/BARC

 

SSA

Issuer Ratings Coupon Maturity Size IPTs GUIDANCE LAUNCH PRICED LEADS
KfW Aaa/AAA 2.75% 7/15/2020 4,000 MS<2>a MS<2>a MS<3> +23.8 BARC/HSBC/RBC

 

Indexes and New Issue Volume              

Countable IG volume includes maturities of 18-months and out and IG-rated Preferreds.

*Denotes new high or tight.

 

Index Open Current Change  
IG30 64.169 63.742 <0.427>
VIX 12.40 11.64 <0.76>
CT10 2.929% 2.973% 0.044
S&P 2,749 2,772 23  
DOW 24,800 25,146 346
Nasdaq 7,638 *7,689 51
OIL 65.52 65.01 <0.51>  
GOLD 1,296 1,296 0  
 

USD

 

IG Corporates

 

USD

 

Total (IG + SSA)

DAY: $7.20 bn DAY: $11.20 bn
WTD: $33.45 bn WTD: $37.95 bn
MTD: $34.055 bn MTD: $38.555 bn
YTD: $618.251 bn YTD: $772.816 bn

 

Global Market Recap

 

  • USTs were sold; the yield curve steepened – T2 +2, T5 +4, T10 +4, T30 +4.
  • Overseas Bonds: EU, Gilts & Peripherals sold.  Asia flat.
  • SOFR: -0.05 to 1.75 vs. 1.80.
  • 3mth Libor: +0.006 to 2.319 vs. 2.313%.
  • Overseas Stocks: Asia up Europe mostly red except the CAC.
  • Currencies: DXY Index -0.241 to 93.635 vs. 93.876.
  • CDX HY: -3.363 to 338.194 vs. 341.557.
  • CDX EM: -0.287 to 171.909 vs. 172.196.

*Index levels are as of 5:00PM ET today.

2018 Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending May 30th             

  • For the week ended May 30th, Lipper U.S. Fund Flows reported a net inflow of $848.978m into Corporate Investment Grade Funds (2018 YTD net inflow of $43.822b) and a net outflow of $17.869m from High Yield Funds (2018 YTD net outflow of $15.138b).
  • Over the same period, Lipper reported a net inflow of $274.880m from Loan Participation Funds (2018 YTD net inflow of $7.156b).
  • Emerging Market debt funds reported a net inflow of $27.322m (2018 YTD inflow of $1.990b). 

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

The 10-day IG spread performance vs. the T10 across the ratings spectrum and how IG compared versus high yield:

Spreads across the four IG asset classes are 24.50 bps wider versus their new post-Crisis lows

*Denotes new post-Crisis low

 

ASSET CLASS 6/05 6/04 6/01 5/31 5/30 5/29 5/28 5/25 5/24 5/23 1-Day Change 10-Day Trend PC
low
IG Avg. 121 120 121 122 120 120 116 116 115 115 +1 +6 90 (2/01/18)
“AAA” 62 62 62 63 63 63 60 60 60 60 0 +2 48 (2/02/18)
“AA” 72 71 71 72 70 69 67 67 67 67 +1 +5 51 (2/02/18)
“A” 97 96 97 98 97 96 92 92 92 92 +1 +5 71 (2/01/18)
“BBB” 152 152 153 154 152 151 147 147 146 146 0 +6 115 (2/02/18)
IG vs. HY 229 229 234 241 244 255 237 237 234 233 0 <5> 222 (5/15/18)

 

IG Credit Spreads by Industry

…….and a snapshot of the major investment grade sector credit spreads for the past ten sessions:

Spreads across the major industry sectors are an average 31.42 bps wider versus their post-Crisis lows!
*Denotes new post-Crisis low!

INDUSTRY 6/05 6/04 6/01 5/31 5/30 5/29 5/28 5/25 5/24 5/23 1-Day Change 10-Day Trend PC
low
Automotive 106 105 106 107 106 104 102 102 102 102 +1 +4 67
Banking 109 109 110 111 110 109 103 103 102 102 0 +7 75 (2/02/18)
Basic Industry 154 153 154 155 153 154 148 148 147 147 +1 +7 110 (2/02/2018)
Cap Goods 99 98 99 99 99 98 96 96 95 95 +1 +4 75 (1/12/18)
Cons. Prod. 109 108 110 110 108 107 105 105 105 105 +1 +4 78 (2/01/18)
Energy 154 152 153 154 150 150 146 146 145 145 +2 +9 115 (2/02/18)
Financials 124 124 124 125 122 121 119 119 119 118 0 +6 97
Healthcare 105 105 105 106 104 103 102 102 101 101 0 +4 77 (2/02/2018)
Industrials 124 123 124 125 123 122 119 119 119 119 +1 +5 93 (2/02/18)
Insurance 130 130 130 132 130 130 127 127 126 125 0 +5 100 (2/02/18)
Leisure 129 127 128 127 126 125 125 125 125 123 +2 +6 98 (2/01/18)
Media 156 156 157 157 155 154 150 150 150 148 0 +8 113
Real Estate 129 129 129 130 129 129 128 128 127 127 0 +2 100 (2/01/18)
Retail 111 111 112 112 112 111 109 109 108 108 0 +3 82 (2/02/18)
Services 111 111 112 112 110 109 108 108 107 107 0 +4 94  (1/31/18)
Technology 90 89 91 91 90 90 86 86 86 86 +1 +4 71 (2/02/18)
Telecom 159 159 160 162 161 160 155 155 154 153 0 +6 122
Transportation 128 124 127 127 125 124 122 122 121 121 +4 +7 91 (2/02/2018)
Utility 124 127 124 125 123 123 119 119 119 119 <3> +5 96 (2/02/2018)

                                   

New Issue Pipeline

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Investment Grade Bond Issuance: Market Reboots: Mischler Comment
May 2018      Debt Market Commentary   

Quigley’s Corner 05.30.18 : Investment Grade Bond Issuance: Market Reboots

Investment Grade Bond New Issue Re-Cap – Market Reboots

Today’s IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates For This Week and May

The “QC” Geopolitical Risk Monitor

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

New Issues Priced

Indexes and New Issue Volume

Global Market Recap            

2018 Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending May 23rd        

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

IG Credit Spreads by Industry

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

Tomorrow’s Calendar

In a dramatic reversal, financial markets recouped much of yesterday’s losses by kicking Italy’s political drama off today’s stage with its own powerful steel-tipped boot in a memorable display of market resiliency. Issuers were actively checking the market this morning with two utilities accounting for three of the session’s six tranches. Dominion Energy and Southern California Edison (NYSEAMERICAN: SCE-E) printed along with a MetLife, Inc. (NYSE: MET) $25 par non-cumulative PerpNC5 preferred stock transaction that was upsized to $700mm from an initially announced $200mm deal size on the back of strong demand. Morgan Stanley had physical books. Congrats to Team MS’s Captain Morgan, Mike Borut for leading that charge.  It was a nice shot in the arm after yesterday’s market woes. There remain myriad geopolitical event risk factors treading on thin ice that could make this summer a bumpy ride.  But it’s responses like today’s session that remind us all how irrepressible the market is.

Today the IG dollar DCM hosted 4 issuers across 6 tranches totaling $3.45b.  The SSA space was inactive.

Here’s a look at the WTD and MTD IG Corporate new issue volume as measured against syndicate desk estimates:

  • The IG Corporate WTD total is 17.23% of this week’s syndicate midpoint average forecast or $3.45b vs. $20.02b.
  • MTD we’ve priced 87.49% of the syndicate forecast for April IG Corporate new issuance or $117.975b vs. $134.84b.
  • There are now 14 issuers in the IG credit pipeline.

 

Today’s IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

  • MetLife Inc. upsized today’s 28mm share $25 par non-cumulative PerpNC5 Preferred stock transaction to $700mm from $200mm
  • The average spread compression from IPTs and/or guidance thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 5 IG Corporate-only new issues was <8.70> bps.
  • Including today’s MetLife Inc. $25 par perpNC5 Preferred stock transaction, spread compression among the 6 IG Corporate and Preferred was <8.29> bps.
  • BAML’s Investment Grade Bond Master Index widened 4 bps to +120 vs. +116. (It’s post-Crisis low is +90 set on 2/01).
  • Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS widened 3 bps to +114 vs. 1.11.  (0.85 is its post-Crisis low set on 1/30).
  • Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread widened 5 bps to +156 vs. +151. (+125 represents its post-Crisis low set 2/02).
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $16.9b on Tuesday versus $6.9b on Friday and $18.5b the previous Tuesday. Monday was a holiday.
  • The 10-DMA stands at $16.8b.

 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates For This Week and May

 

IG Corporate New Issuance This Week
5/29-6/01
vs. Current
WTD – $3.45b
May 2018 vs. Current
MTD – $117.975b
Low-End Avg. $19.32b 17.86% $133.64b 88.28%
Midpoint Avg. $20.02b 17.23% $134.84b 87.49%
High-End Avg. $20.72b 16.65% $136.04b 86.72%
The High $15b 23.00% $110b 107.25%
The Low $26b 13.27% $150b 78.65%


The “QC” Geopolitical Risk Monitor

Updates are in BOLD print!

Risk Level/Main Factor Geopolitical Risks
HIGH ·        N/A
ELEVATED
North Korea
& Italy
·        5/29 – President Trump continues pressing demands for complete denuclearization of North Korea. The on again, off again June 12th summit may still happen. Trump cancelled the planned summit last week sighting Kim Jong-un’s “tremendous anger and open hostility” but asked his top aides to continue carrying out high level talks in preparation for it.

·        5/29 – Italy’s en route to derail the Euro Zone as its two ant-establishment parties 5-Star and League could not form a coalition. President Mattarella put the kabosh on the first populist gov’t. by nixing their candidate for finance minister given their euro skepticism. As a result Mattarella vetoed all cabinet ministers, installed a EU friendly neutral gov’t. headed by an interim PM and former IMF economist as Italy looks to be headed for new elections. Italy has now gone without a gov’t. for 86 days shattering the old record of 82 set in 1996. Yields on Italian debt soared, the EU is getting hammered. The two  populist parties have over 50% support and promote tough immigration reform, increased spending, lifting all sanctions against Russia, creating 2 tax brackets of 15 and 20%, dropping a previously boosted retirement age and a citizen’s income for the poor. This makes Greece’s problems looks like child’s play. With Italy, Europe should have an emergency plan in place for a derailment of the Union. Italy had 70 post WWII gov’ts in 72 post-WWII years – one every 1.02 years. It is the EU’s 3rd largest economy, has the world’s 3rd highest debt-to-GDP ratio at 132.5% and a $2.8 trillion (equiv.) national debt. Italy is clearly the EU’s biggest economic risk. Italy’s banking sector holds $220bn of bad loans.

CAUTION
U.S-China
Tariffs, Iran, Israel,
U.S. Interest Rates,
BREXIT & Terror
·        5/29 – Motivated by intellectual property rights violations, the Trump Administration will impose 50% tariffs on Chinese imports along with new controls and restrictions. Although tensions reduced since U.S. Tsy. Sec. Steve Mnuchin said Pres. Trump would “put the trade war on hold” last Monday 5/21, negotiations have failed to produce any sweeping resolution. Trump indicated a list of tariffed imports will be available on 6/15.

·        5/29 – Iran’s Ayatollah is concerned the EU will not be able to salvage their end of the Iran nuclear deal as EU nations that link their security to U.S. security will cave to U.S. demands. Iran doubts the EU can prevent major companies from withdrawing due to new U.S. sanctions. 5/08 – President Trump pulled the U.S. from JCPOA while imposing mort stringent sanctions against Iran. He also warned heavy sanctions against nation that assists in Iran’s nuclear pursuits. On 4/30 Israeli PM Netanyahu revealed evidence proving Iran’s nuclear ambitions continued in violation of the 2015 agreement.

·        5/29 – Gaza Strip based Hamas and rebels launched over two dozen rockets into southern Israel in the largest barrage of Palestinian fire since 2014. Israel answered with targeted bombings.

·        5/29 – U.S. interest rates: Amidst a rising rate environment, Italy and EU concerns counter by pushing investor cash into the safe haven of USTs thereby compressing yields. June is historically the second lowest volume month for issuance besides December. Repatriation and tax reform deepened cash reserves for many U.S. corps especially tech cos.  The absence of AAPL, MSFT, etc has impacted YTD issuance.

·        5/17 – Pressure on U.K. PM Theresa May mounts as Britain’s House of Lords dealt BREXIT its 15th defeat, this time over environmental protections issues by a 54%-46% margin. In addition, friction intensified between supporters of a post-BREXIT customs partnership with the EU vs. resistance by those who support technology to monitor the critical border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.

·        May 2018 Terror Event MTD Casualty Total: 124 terrorist attacks; 850 dead; 1,116 wounded.

MODERATE

Spain
& CyberCime
·        5/29 – Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy’s minority administration will face a second vote of confidence on Friday 6/01 amidst increasing pressure and resistance with calls for new elections that could unseat him thanks to a multi-million-euro graft conspiracy that saw dozens of his party’s officials convicted of various crimes. Corruption runs rampant under Rajoy’s watch. He survived a similar vote in June but may not make it through this round. The IBEX is down 8.6% YTD.

·        Cyber Crime: Crypto-jacking, PowerShell-based attacks, cybercriminal underground, ransomware, viruses, hacking, worms and malware estimated to cost the world $6 trillion by 2021. Watch Russia’s involvement.

MARGINAL ·        N/A

 

 

Have a great evening!
Ron Quigley, Managing Director and Head of Fixed Income Syndicate

 

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches (more…)

IG Debt Market Recap: Iran Deal Scuttled; Dynamite Day for General Dynamics
May 2018      Debt Market Commentary   

Quigley’s Corner 05.08.18: Iran Deal Scuttled; IG Debt Market Recap: Dynamite Deal Day for General Dynamics  

Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap – Big Time Volume But Stuck at
“The Number Again. NYSE:GD, NYSE:VZ

Today’s IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates For This Week and May

Vaya Con Dios to Bloomberg Bob, a Great Man and a Dear Friend

Global Market Recap

The “QC” Geopolitical Risk Monitor

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

New Issues Priced

Indexes and New Issue Volume

2018 Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending May 2nd      

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

IG Credit Spreads by Industry

New Issue Pipeline

M&A Pipeline

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

Tomorrow’s Calendar

 

Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap – Big Time Volume But Stuck at“The Number Again. NYSE:GD, NYSE:VZ
Today the IG dollar DCM hosted 7 issuers across 18 tranches totalling $15.539b. 48.3% of that total came in the form of the General Dynamics (NYSE:GD) 7-part transaction –which totalled $7.5b, and runner-up award to Verizon Communications (NYSE:VZ), which brought $1.788b to the corporate treasury. The SSA space was inactive again. Although the deals are clearing for issuers 10 of today’s 17 IG Corporate tranches were guided “at the number!”  Something to keep an eye on. Here’s a look at the WTD and MTD IG Corporate new issue volume as measured against syndicate desk estimates:

  • The IG Corporate WTD total is 74.35% of this week’s syndicate midpoint average forecast or $23.389b vs. $31.46b.
  • MTD we’ve priced 27.64% of the syndicate forecast for April IG Corporate new issuance or $37.264b vs. $134.84b.
  • There are now 9 issuers in the IG credit pipeline.

Today’s IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

  • The average spread compression from IPTs and/or guidance thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 17 IG Corporate-only new issues was <11.09> bps.
  • BAML’s IG Master Index was unchanged at +117. (It’s post-Crisis low is +90 set on 2/01).
  • Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS was unchanged at +1.12.  (0.85 is its post-Crisis low set on 1/30).
  • Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread was unchanged at +149. (+125 represents its post-Crisis low set 2/02).
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $14.1b on Monday versus $13.9b on Friday and $20.9b the previous Monday.
  • The 10-DMA stands at $18.1b. 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates For This Week and May

 

IG Corporate New Issuance This Week
5/07-5/11
vs. Current
WTD – $23.389b
May 2018 vs. Current
MTD – $37.264b
Low-End Avg. $30.83b 75.86% $133.64b 27.88%
Midpoint Avg. $31.46b 74.35% $134.84b 27.64%
High-End Avg. $32.08b 72.91% $136.04b 27.39%
The High $20b 116.945% $110b 33.88%
The Low $40b 58.47% $150b 24.84%

 bloomberg

Vaya Con Dios to Bloomberg Bob, a Great Man and a Dear Friend

You have all read in the QC about how I frequently turn the lights off and lock the door behind me here at our nation’s oldest Service Disabled Veteran owned & operated broker-dealer. We always leave it on the floor, driven by a desire to be the best we can be and to always be allegiant to our value-added reputation as providing best in class debt capital market coverage and distribution.  It’s all about delivering high-quality work for our issuers and joint leads while building a sustainable and lasting company. We take great pride in that for we know that one day all we ever really take with us is our reputation.  It’s also what people will most remember us by.  Well, this evening, I got your attention with Bloomberg’s logo above but it’s about the manifestation of a mandate at a world-class company that has a culture unique to itself.  If one were to do a case study of corporate cultures, the names, IBM, GE, Apple, Disney and Bloomberg come to mind.  Each company has its family of employees while others are legendary for their work environments and commitment to make “lifers” out of their personnel. Tonight’s story is about Bloomberg’s commitment to veterans and a tribute/send-off to one veteran, in particular, Bob Elson who many of my 3,501 readers have also come to know.

This is not a deal drill-down day, during which I typically help promote an issuer’s diversity mandate and often more specifically, our veteran and service-disabled veteran certification. So, instead of going granular re General Dynamics’ massive debt issuance, tonight I’ve decided to do something different. Tonight I want to pay tribute to a business news industry legend.

I remember working at Merrill when I sat next to Mac Barnes on our trading floor. Mac was a legendary original Bloomberg programmer and techno-wizard who started with Michael Bloomberg way back when. He was also a super good guy.  Michael had been offered a nascent technology position by Merrill well before tech was remotely considered en vogue. In fact, it was anything but. It meant “the writing was on the wall.”  What emerged from that experiment is the Bloomberg we know today.  When the going gets tough, the tough get going, as they say.  Michael Bloomberg never looked back. His net worth is, as of today $51.2b………... Quite an achievement!

Mike Bloomberg may be a multi-billionaire, but he also knows that mandates at any company start from the top down.  Which brings me to veterans at Bloomberg.

In Mike’s own words, “Veterans have just the kind of leadership, discipline, and work ethic you need to launch a successful business and create jobs and we’re determined to help more veterans succeed.” The businessman, engineer, author, politician and philanthropist knows that both the military and Bloomberg embody a common spirit: the mission comes first. Teamwork. Communication. Adaptability. Integrity. Those are just some of the skills and characteristics that transfer well from military service to a career at Bloomberg.  Mike upped his game by recruiting veterans in software development, sales, data analysis, customer service and network support as well as in the newsroom to showcase the places at his company where veterans should look to work. He knew early on those employees who have served or currently serve in the military, military families and supporters who promote and maintain Bloomberg as a military-friendly work environment stay connected through the Bloomberg Military & Veterans Community. We here at Mischler embrace and endorse that kind of thinking.

bob-elson-bloomberg lp

Bob Elson, US Army Spec 5; Bloomberg LP

However, I’d like to go one further by highlighting one of those veterans whose last day is coming at Bloomberg next Tuesday, May 15th – Robert “Bob” Elson formerly the Bob from the now defunct but legendary Ed and Bob Show that was Bloomberg’s First Word new issue team.  I’ve known Bob since he joined Bloomberg and enjoyed our daily rapport.  He is the consummate professional, all about journalistic integrity, checking data sources multiple times before going out with anything on the tapes and a legend on Wall Street. Along with having logged 47 years working in our financial services industry comes a Yoda-like wisdom about and sense of our global financial markets. For all those millennials out there who have logged their first 10 years and are only now starting to see what an interest rate hike looks like, it’s critical to latch onto the knowledge that market professionals such as Bob Elson possess.  It’s invaluable. Bob certainly deserves his reputation as “Bond Salesman to the Stars Since 1971.”

When my Dad passed away last December, while the family gathered at his wake, Bob was the first person to sign in to pay his respects to our family.  That is the kind of person he is and friend he has become.

As I mentioned Bob’s last day will be next Tuesday, May 15th.  I wanted to scribe something in Bob’s honour BEFORE his last day. This way, you can reach out to Bob prior to his departure. Bob has left an indelible mark in the Bloomberg newsroom. I will personally miss his professional expertise, his unmatched experience although I look forward to more frequent lunches as they’ll be easier to come by given our proximity here in Stamford, Connecticut to his home in Westport. The Bloomberg chat room that both Ed and Bob years ago named “Quigmeister” will be a less active one. When in the throes of covering over 120 accounts, running order books and writing relative value and D&I stories I could always rely on Bob’s comic relief that would get me through the realization that I’d once again be sending my “QC” with an obscenely late time stamp. People come and go in this business and the ones you keep around long after are more than just good minds, great journalists, and experienced market professionals. They become friends.

For those who may not have known, Bob also proudly served his nation in Vietnam joining the U.S. Army in 1968. Following basic training at the Fort Eustis installation near Newport News, Virginia, Bob served in the First Infantry Division (The Big Red One) seeing action in Lai Khe, Vietnam. For those who may not know, Lai Khe was probably the most rocketed base camp in Vietnam except for Khe Sanh during the siege. Bob humbly recalls the sign that hung prominently at the camp’s entry that read, “Welcome to Rocket City.” Bob may well have cultivated his keen sense of humour and comic relief from the legendary Bob Hope who visited the base for his Christmas show. Hope greeted the crowd saying “Here we are in Lai Khe. I’ve been here five minutes and I don’t Like Kaye!  Bob was then off to 1st Field Force Headquarters in Nha Trang returning home in 1970 as a Spec 5 having earned a Bronze Star with Oak Leaf Cluster for service.

It is comforting to know that there’s a place like Bloomberg that gave our veteran a home in his later years. I must say, however, I wish it was longer stay though.

To my good friend, journalist and veteran, it is NEVER fun to see someone ride off into the sunset but as they say, old soldiers never die they simply…………and I choose not to finish that quote, folks!

Thank you for your friendship, professionalism, foresight, advice and market wisdom all these years. Having served on no deals today you Bob Elson are the reason why I’m, turning off the lights and locking the front door here at Mischler Financial this evening.  I’d like you and all 3,501 “QC” readers to know that this edition has been my privilege and honour to write.

Vaya Con Dios my friend! Please reach out to Bob Elson on your Bloomberg terminals to give our military veteran and financial services veteran the send-off he truly deserves.

Thank you all and as always, have a great evening!

Below please find a complete synopsis of the day’s debt capital market activity as seen from the perch of the nation’s oldest investment bank / institutional brokerage owned & operated by Service-Disabled Veterans.

Ron Quigley, Managing Director, Head of Fixed Income Syndicate

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Muni Bond New Issues Week 04-30-2018 : Edu 201: DASNY
April 2018      Muni Market   

Muni Bond New Issues Scheduled Week of 04-30-18: Taxable Bonds for NYU and Columbia University….Mischler Muni Market Update looks back to last week’s new issue and muni bond fund flow metrics and provides a focused lens on municipal debt new issue calendar for this week.  As always, the Mischler Muni Market Outlook provides public finance investment managers, institutional investors focused on municipal debt and muni bond market participants with a summary of the prior week’s municipal bond market activity, including credit spreads and money flows, and a look at pending municipal finance offerings tentatively scheduled for the most current week.

Last week muni volume was about $8.0 billion. This week volume is expected to be about $4.3 billion. The negotiated market is led by $606.1 million tax-exempt and taxable bonds for New York University issued by the Dormitory Authority of the State of New York. The competitive market is led by $416.8 million general obligation bonds for Prince George’s County, Maryland (Tuesday)

Below and attached is neither a recommendation or offer to purchase or sell securities. Mischler Financial Group is not a Municipal Advisor. For additional information, please contact Managing Director Richard Tilghman at 203.276.6656

municipal-debt-new-issue-week-04302018

During Q1 2018, and full years 2017 and 2016 alone, minority broker-dealer Mischler Financial Group Inc. underwriting roles (for which MFG has led, co-managed and/or served as selling group member) have included more than $625 Billion (notional value) in new debt and preferred shares issued by Fortune corporations, as well as debt issued by various municipalities and US Government agencies.

Mischler Financial Group is the securities industry’s oldest minority broker-dealer owned and operated by Service-Disabled Veterans. Mischler is also a federally-certified Service-Disabled Veteran-Owned Business Enterprise (SDVOBE).  Mischler Muni Market updates and Municipal Debt New Issuance outlooks are provided as a courtesy to institutional clients of Mischler Financial Group, Inc.

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Quigley’s Corner 04.16.18 : Bank Earnings Bolster Bond Issuance
April 2018      Debt Market Commentary   

Quigley’s Corner 04.16.18 : Bank Earnings Bolster Bond Issuance; Citi &JPM Float $6.5b

 

Investment Grade Corporate Bond New Issue Re-Cap
Today’s IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points
Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates For This Week and March
Global Market Recap
The “QC” Geopolitical Risk Monitor
NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches
New Issues Priced
Indexes and New Issue Volume
2018 Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending April 11th

IG Credit Spreads by Rating
IG Credit Spreads by Industry
New Issue Pipeline
M&A Pipeline
Economic Data Releases
Rates Trading Lab

 

Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap – Citi & JPM Ride Strong Earnings to Print $6.5b

 

Today the IG dollar DCM hosted 6 issuers across 12 tranches totalling $12.05b.  Investors bought on earnings today with both Citigroup and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. leading the way.  The two six-pack banks represented $6.50b or 54% of today’s issuance on the heels of last Friday’s earnings beats. Citigroup topped estimates posting $1.68 EPS vs. $1.61 forecasts. JPM delivered $2.37 vs. $2.28. The SSA space was quiet.

Here’s a look at the WTD and MTD IG Corporate new issue volume as measured against syndicate desk estimates:

  • MTD we’ve priced 51.92% of the syndicate forecast for February IG Corporate new issuance or $47.454b vs. $91.40b.
  • There are now 19 issuers in the IG credit pipeline.

Today’s IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

  • The average spread compression from IPTs and/or guidance thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 12 IG Corporate-only new issue was <18.92> bps.
  • BAML’s IG Master Index tightened 1 bp to +111 vs. +112. (It’s post-Crisis low is +90 set on 2/01).
  • Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS was unchanged at 1.06.  (0.85 is its post-Crisis low set on 1/30).
  • Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread widened 1 bp to +142 vs. +141. (+125 represents its post-Crisis low set 2/02).
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $15.5b on Friday versus $17.3b on Thursday and $13.8b the previous Friday.
  • The 10-DMA stands at $17b.

 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for April

 

IG Corporate New Issuance April 2018 vs. Current
MTD – $47.454b
Low-End Avg. $90.60b 52.38%
Midpoint Avg. $91.40b 51.92%
High-End Avg. $92.20b 51.47%
The High $80b 59.32%
The Low $110b 43.14%

 

Global Market Recap

  • U.S. Treasuries – Closed red except the 30yr. Nice bounce back during NY trading hours.
  • Overseas Bonds – JGB’s, Bunds and Gilts all lost ground.
  • SOFR – Set at 1.72%.
  • 3mth Libor – Set at the highest yield since November 2008 (2.35509%).
  • Stocks – Strong gains heading into the close.
  • Overseas Stocks – Nikkei up. China and Hong Kong hit. Europe more red than green.
  • Economic – Best reading for retail sales in the last 4 months.
  • Overseas Economic – German wholesale price index was tame.
  • Currencies – USD was weaker vs. all of the Big 5.
  • Commodities – Energy struggled today after rallying last week.
  • CDX IG: -1.89 to 59.45
  • CDX HY: -7.84 to 331.95
  • CDX EM: -0.62 to 138.91
  • VIX: -0.65 to 16.76

*CDX levels are as of 3:30PM ET today.

-Tony Farren

 

Below please find a synopsis of the day’s primary investment grade corporate bond market issuance activity, along with the full view of the debt capital markets from the perch of Mischler Financial Group’s Fixed Income Syndicate desk. Have a great evening!
Ron Quigley, Managing Director

 

New Issues Priced

 

Issuer Ratings Coupon Maturity Size IPTs GUIDANCE LAUNCH PRICED LEADS
Abu Dhabi Nat’l. Energy Co. A3/A 4.375% 4/23/2025 750 +185a +165a (+/-5) +160 +160 CITI/HSBC/FRAB/ING/MIZ
SCOT/SMBC
Abu Dhabi Nat’l. Energy Co. A3/A 4.875% 4/23/2030 1,000 +240a +210a (+/-5) +205 +205 CITI/HSBC/FRAB/ING/MIZ
SCOT/SMBC
Citigroup Inc. Baa1/A 4.075% 11nc10 F-t-F
4/23/2029
2,000 +140a +125-128 +125 +125
Back-end:
3mL+119.2
CITI-sole
Delta Air Lines Inc. Baa3/BBB- 3.40% 4/19/2021 600 +115a +95a (+/-5) +90 +90 BNPP/CS/DB/FITB/MS/WFS(a)
+11 (p)
Delta Air Lines Inc. Baa3/BBB- 3.80% 4/19/2023 500 +140a +120a (+/-5) +115 +115 BNPP/CS/DB/FITB/MS/WFS(a)
+11 (p)
Delta Air Lines Inc. Baa3/BBB- 4.375% 4/19/2028 500 +170a +160a (+/-5) +155 +155 BNPP/CS/DB/FITB/MS/WFS(a)
+11 (p)
Hanwha Life Insurance A3/A- 4.70% 30nc5
4/23/2023
1,000 5.00%a 4.75%a (+/-5) 4.70% $100.00
Reset:+200
then +300
BAML/JPM/NOM/UBS/HANW
J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. A3/A+ FRN 6nc5
4/23/2024
500 3mL+equiv 3mL+equiv 3mL+73 3mL+73 JPM-sole
J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. A3/A+ 3.559% 6nc5
4/23/2024
1,750 +95a +90a (+/-2) +88 +88 JPM-sole
J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. A3/A+ 4.005% 11nc10
4/23/2029
2,250 +125a +120a (+/-2) +118 +118 JPM-sole
United Overseas Bank Aa1/AA- FRN 4/23/2021 500 3mL+equiv 3mL+equiv 3mL+48 3mL+48 CITI/CS/HSBC/JPM/UOB
United Overseas Bank Aa1/AA- 3.20% 4/23/2021 700 REV. IPTS: +85a
+90a
+72-75 +72 +72 CITI/CS/HSBC/JPM/UOB

 

…..and here’s another look at last week’s day-by-day re-cap of key primary market driver averages for IG Corporates only followed by the prior six week’s averages:

KEY IG CORPORATE
NEW ISSUE DRIVERS
MON.
4/09
TUES.
4/10
WED.
4/11
TH.
5/12
FRI.
5/13
AVERAGES
WEEK 4/09
AVERAGES
WEEK 4/02
AVERAGES
WEEK 3/26
AVERAGES
WEEK 3/19
AVERAGES
WEEK 3/12
AVERAGES
WEEK 3/05
New Issue Concessions 10.80 bps 2.60 bps N/A 8.00 bps N/A 7.13 bps 0.57 bps 8.18 bps 15.80 bps 9.16 bps 5.05 bps
Oversubscription Rates 3.78x 2.13x N/A N/A N/A 3.10x 4.07x 2.53x 2.86x 2.16x 2.88x
Tenors 9.63 yrs 3.80 yrs N/A 10.00 yrs N/A 7.57 yrs 10.55 yrs 13.15 yrs 11.82 yrs. 9.49 yrs 10.43 yrs
Tranche Sizes $679mm $900mm N/A $600mm N/A $752mm $812mm $488mm $784mm $568mm $1,559mm
Avg. Spd. Compression
IPTs to Launch
<17.86> bps <14.70> bps N/A <15.00> bps N/A <16.42> bps <21.41> bps <12.41> bps <13.78> bps <7.92> bps <15.63> bps

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Muni Deals This Week: State of CT, GWU; Go Colonials
March 2018      Muni Market   

Municipal Debt New Issue Outlook Week of 03-26-18 – $1.5b taxable for GWU (The George Washington University); Go Colonials. Mischler Muni Market Update looks back to last week’s new issue and muni fund flow metrics and provides a focused lens on municipal debt new issuance scheduled for this week.  As always, the Mischler Muni Market Outlook provides public finance investment managers, institutional investors focused on municipal debt and muni bond market participants with a summary of the prior week’s municipal bond market activity, including credit spreads and money flows, and a look at pending municipal finance offerings tentatively scheduled for the most current week.

Last week muni volume was about $2.1 billion. This week volume is expected to be about $3.7 billion. The negotiated market is led by $1.5 billion for two taxable financings for George Washington University and Sutter Health and $617million of general obligation bonds for the State of Connecticut. The competitive market is led by $123.7 million tax-exempt and taxable general obligation bonds in two bids for the City of Oklahoma City, Oklahoma on Tuesday.

Below and attached is neither a recommendation or offer to purchase or sell securities. Mischler Financial Group is not a Municipal Advisor. For additional information, please contact Managing Director Richard Tilghman at 203.276.6656

muni-market-new-issue-calendar-mischler

During 2017 and 2016 alone, minority broker-dealer Mischler Financial Group Inc. underwriting roles (for which MFG has led, co-managed and/or served as selling group member) have included more than $600 Billion (notional value) in new debt and preferred shares issued by Fortune corporations, as well as debt issued by various municipalities and US Government agencies.

Mischler Financial Group is the securities industry’s oldest minority broker-dealer owned and operated by Service-Disabled Veterans. Mischler is also a federally-certified Service-Disabled Veteran-Owned Business Enterprise (SDVOBE).  Mischler Muni Market updates and Municipal Debt New Issuance outlooks are provided as a courtesy to institutional clients of Mischler Financial Group, Inc.

This document may be not reproduced in any manner without the permission of Mischler Financial Group. Although the statements of fact have been obtained from and are based upon sources Mischler Financial Group believes reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete.  All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to change without notice.  This report is for informational purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security.   Veteran-owned broker-dealer Mischler Financial Group, its affiliates and their respective officers, directors, partners and employees, including persons involved in the preparation of this report, may from time to time maintain a long or short position in, or purchase or sell a position in, hold or act as market-makers or advisors or brokers in relation to the securities (or related securities, financial products, options, warrants, rights, or derivatives), of companies mentioned in this report or be represented on the board of such companies. Neither Mischler Financial Group nor any officer or employee of Mischler Financial Group or any affiliate thereof accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential damages or losses arising from any use of this report or its contents.

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Municipal Debt New Issue Outlook – State of California Spotlight
March 2018      Muni Market   

Municipal Debt New Issue Outlook Week of 03-05-18; State of California $2.1b GO Deal in the spotlight.   Mischler Muni Market Update looks back to last week’s new issue and muni fund flow metrics and provides a focused lens on municipal bond new issues scheduled for this week.  As always, the Mischler Muni Market Outlook provides public finance investment managers, institutional investors focused on municipal debt and muni bond market participants with a summary of the prior week’s municipal bond market activity, including credit spreads and money flows, and a look at pending municipal finance offerings tentatively scheduled for the most current week.

Last week muni volume was about $4.5 billion. This week volume is expected to be about $7.5 billion. The negotiated market is led by $2.1 billion general obligation bonds for the State of California. The competitive market is led by $604.4 million general obligation and motor vehicle fuel bonds for the State of Washington on Tuesday.

Below and attached is neither a recommendation or offer to purchase or sell securities. Mischler Financial Group is not a Municipal Advisor. For additional information, please contact Managing Director Richard Tilghman at 203.276.6656

For reading ease, please click on image below

municipal-bond-offerings-scheduled 020518

During the past two years alone, minority broker-dealer Mischler Financial Group Inc.’s  presence across the primary Primary Debt Capital Markets (DCM) space has included underwriting roles in which Mischler has led, co-managed and/or served as selling group member for more than $600 Billion (notional value) in new debt and preferred shares issued by Fortune corporations, as well as debt issued by various municipalities and US Government agencies.

Mischler Financial Group is the securities industry’s oldest minority broker-dealer owned and operated by Service-Disabled Veterans. Mischler is also a federally-certified Service-Disabled Veteran-Owned Business Enterprise (SDVOBE).  Mischler Muni Market updates and Municipal Debt New Issuance outlooks are provided as a courtesy to institutional clients of Mischler Financial Group, Inc.

This document may be not reproduced in any manner without the permission of veteran-owned broker-dealer Mischler Financial Group. Although the statements of fact have been obtained from and are based upon sources Mischler Financial Group believes reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete.  All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to change without notice.  This report is for informational purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security.   Veteran-owned broker-dealer Mischler Financial Group, its affiliates and their respective officers, directors, partners and employees, including persons involved in the preparation of this report, may from time to time maintain a long or short position in, or purchase or sell a position in, hold or act as market-makers or advisors or brokers in relation to the securities (or related securities, financial products, options, warrants, rights, or derivatives), of companies mentioned in this report or be represented on the board of such companies. Neither Mischler Financial Group nor any officer or employee of Mischler Financial Group or any affiliate thereof accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential damages or losses arising from any use of this report or its contents.

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Trump Tries Trade War Saber Rattling; March IG DCM New Issue Madness
March 2018      Debt Market Commentary   

Quigley’s Corner 03.02.18 – Weekend Edition: Trump Tries Trade War Saber Rattling; March IG Issuance Madness

  

Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap

Today’s IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates For This Week and March

The Best and the Brightest” Syndicate Forecasts and Sound Bites for Next Week; CVS Getting Set?

“Knowing the Past for the Future” – A Look at a Decade’s Worth of March IG Corporate and SSA Issuance

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for Next Week

The “QC” Geopolitical Risk Monitor

NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches

This Week’s IG New Issues and Where They’re Trading

2018 Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending February 28th  

IG Credit Spreads by Rating

IG Credit Spreads by Industry

New Issue Pipeline

Economic Data Releases

Rates Trading Lab

 

Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap

What with poor market tone, widening spreads, “chatter” of trade wars from Trump Twitter account, a major Northeast storm on the way and CVS heard rumbling into position for next week’s M&A related financing, it was indeed VERY WISE for the IG dollar DCM to stand down today.  I am once again honoured to have received 100% participation for my Friday “QC” edition, from Wall Street’s Best and Brightest Investment Grade Fixed Income Syndicate sophisticates  I surveyed all of them for next week’s forecast and for March IG Corporate volume.  Strap yourselves in for a humdinger of a week next week and what looks like March IG Issuance Madness. Their thoughtful comments, which add color to their forecast numbers are in-depth and formidable, especially in today’s edition.

Here’s a look at the WTD IG Corporate new issue volume as measured against syndicate desk estimates:

  • The IG Corporate WTD total is 136.89% of this week’s syndicate midpoint average forecast or $36.85b vs. $26.92b.
  • There are now 11 issuers in the IG credit pipeline.

Today’s IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points

  • BAML’s IG Master Index widened 3 bps to +104 vs. +101. (It’s post-Crisis low is +90 set on 2/01).
  • Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS widened 3 bps to 0.99 vs. 0.96.  (0.85 is its post-Crisis low set on 1/30).
  • Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread widened 3 bps to +138 vs. +135. (+125 represents its post-Crisis low set 2/02).
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $17b on Thursday versus $23b on Wednesday and $20.1b the previous Thursday.
  • The 10-DMA stands at $18.9b.

 

Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates For This Week and March

 

IG Corporate New Issuance This Week
2/26-3/02
vs. Current
WTD – $36.85b
Low-End Avg. $25.72b 143.27%
Midpoint Avg. $26.92b 136.89%
High-End Avg. $28.12b 131.05%
The Low $15b 245.67%
The High $40b 92.13%

 

The Best and the Brightest” Syndicate Forecasts and Sound Bites for Next Week

 

I am happy to announce that the “QC” once again received 100% unanimous participation from all 25 syndicate desks surveyed for today’s “Best & Brightest” edition!  Thank you to all of them. 17 of today’s respondents are in the top 18 of the new 2018 League table including 19 of the top 21 according to today’s Bloomberg’s U.S. IG U.S. Investment Grade Corporate Bond underwriting league table.  The 2018 League table can be found on your terminals at “LEAG” + [GO] after which you select (US Investment Grade Corporates).  The participating desks represent 82.87% of all IG dollar-denominated new issue underwriting as of today’s table share percentage which simply means they are the ones with visibility.  But it’s not only about their volume forecasts, it’s also about their comments!  This core syndicate group does it best; they know best; so they are the ones you WANT and NEED to hear from.  It’s a great look at the week ahead.

*Please note that these are Investment Grade Corporates only. They do not include SSA issuance unless otherwise noted.

As always “thank you” to all the syndicate desks that participated in today’s survey.  I greatly appreciate your time to contribute and for making this edition of the “QC” among the most widely read!

“Happy Friday. You can almost hear the rumble of CVS getting into position! I am looking for forecasts for BOTH MARCH and NEXT WEEK today!

All the data you need to know is here. There’s lots to talk about so let’s run through this week’s key geopolitical risk recapas a segue to the big question: What does Wall Street’s Biggest Syndicate Desks Expect re: Next Week’s IG DCM?

 

NORTH KOREA
The U.S. imposed new sanctions against 28 NOKO ships registered under changing names and under different national flags including China. The ships funnel banned exports into NOKO. The action is another step the U.S. has taken toward a full NOKO blockade. With diplomacy the strongly favored path to resolution, the Trump Administration will agree to a diplomatic resolution to tensions only if NOKO agrees to put denuclearization on the table which it refuses to do. In the interim, the U.S. DoD conducted classified military exercises in Hawaii last weekend and the U.S. is pre-staging equipment and supplies in the Pacific. I reiterate that sources continue to tell me to “watch” mid-March thru April as NOKO will be back to its old tricks and the game will ratchet up with newly announced war games along with a much larger allied force participating together.

 

TRUMP TO LAUNCH A TRADE WAR?
Sighting unfair trade practices and bad policy on the U.S. steel and aluminium industries, Pres. Trump invited sector CEOs to the White House on Thursday and when they departed, the current president declared he will impose trade tariffs/quotas on imports amounting to 25% on steel and 10% on aluminium. The announcement, which apparently did not include his sending any advance memos to key White House advisors such as Gary Cohn or TreasSec Mnuchin, was made in the name of “national security,” setting off the fear and tenor of new “trade wars.” The move, coupled with unrelated comments from newly-appointed Fed Chair Powell, weighed heavily on the DOW, which lost 550 points on Thursday and extended declines into Friday’s early trading.

THE FED
New Fed Chief Jay Powell delivered his testimony before the Senate Thursday. Powell sent jitters across markets on Tuesday following his House testimony and Q&A when he said, “my outlook for the economy has strengthened since December” albeit in the midst of the recent historic though transparent, healthy market correction. The market always likes to be ahead of the curve and is concerned over a tighter monetary policy stance with participants repricing in higher inflation and interests rates. Yesterday Powell said 4 hikes “would be gradual” and sighted that aggressive tightening is challenged with inflation so low.

GERMANY
A poll released today showed that 56% of Germans favor the SPD joining Merkel’s grand coalition or “marriage of convenience” to avoid another vote and further turmoil in the EU’s keystone nation. The SPD Party formally votes therein tomorrow March 2nd. The caveat is the poll surveyed a much wider group of voters whereas the Friday vote includes the actual hardcore Socialist members.

U.K. & BREXIT
Theresa May delivers a speech on Friday, March 2nd outlining her vision for the U.K.’s future relationship with the EU. Key points were hammered out at the PM’s country manor Chequers with her cabinet ministers on Feb. 22nd. After having drawn so many red lines pre-negotiations with the EU, May & Co. have backed themselves into a corner. Now Ireland and Wales are pushing back on May regarding her hard stance on the customs union. N. Ireland wants to remain under EU customs rules with a UK/EU border demarcation zone in the Irish Sea. Wales subsequently fears reduced trade as a result of EU and Irish ships avoiding British ports. Wales voted to leave the EU but favors some EU alignment.

ITALY

Italy’s Sunday March 4th election shows the combined right-wing alliance parties running around 37% likely enough for victory. Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia has a narrow lead. The centre-right coalition is projecting sufficient votes to govern without a second ballot.

CHINA

China’s ruling Communist Party proposed lifting limits on presidential terms, a first step to assuring President Xi remains in power interminably. A vote on the proposal is slated for next month and is expected to pass marking a major departure from rules in place for decades. Power has never been as centralized since the days of Mao. Maybe Xi should contemplate a little red book a la Mao and call it “Xi’s Little Red Book Volume II.”

SPAIN

With no compromise in sight, Spain’s PM Rajoy is challenged by efforts to impose order on the Catalan region. It is highly improbable that self-exiled leader Carles Puigdemont governs de facto from Brussels. Meanwhile, PM Rajoy cannot pass a national budget having lost the support of the Basque party that backs Catalonian independence. This could force new elections. Nationalist parties are subsequently securing more support foretelling new tensions in a nation that was ravaged by civil war from 1936-1939.

Let’s now take a deep dive into the technical data.  Entering this morning’s Friday session – 

  • The IG Corporate WTD total stands at $36.85b. We priced $9.93b more than the week’s average midpoint estimate of $26.92b or +36.89%.
  • February finished the month having priced 105.77% of the syndicate midpoint forecast for IG Corporates new issuance or $94.117b vs. $88.98b.
  • Entering today’s session, the YTD IG Corporate-only volume is $229.452b vs. the $272.358b YoY or <$42.906b> / <18.70%> less than a year ago.
  • The all-in or IG Corporate plus SSA YTD volume is $311.067b vs. $354.608b YoY <$43.541b> or <14.00%> less than vs. 2017. 

Here are the five key primary market driver averages for the 29 IG Corporate-only deals that priced this week.   

o   NICS:  5.36 bps  

o   Oversubscription Rates: 2.52x

o   Tenors: 13.49 years

o   Tranche Sizes: $768mm

o   Spread Compression from IPTs to the Launch: <14.42> bps 

Here’s how this week’s critical primary market data compares against last week’s numbers: 

  • Week on week, average NICs widened considerably by 3.41 bps to an average 5.36 bps vs. 1.95 bps across this week’s IG Corporate-only new issues that displayed relative value.
  • Over subscription or bid-to-cover rates, the measure of demand, decreased by 0.77x to an average 2.52x vs. 3.29x. 
  • Average tenors extended by 1.52 years to an average 13.49 years vs. 11.97 years.
  • Tranche sizes grew by $142mm to $768mm vs. $626mm.
  • Spread compression from IPTs to the launch/final pricing of this week’s 48 IG Corporate-only new issues widened by 2.04 bps to <14.42> bps vs. <16.46> bps.
  • Standard and Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread widened 5 bps to +138 vs. +133 week-on-week. 
  • Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS thru this morning widened 6 bps to 0.99 vs 0.93 week-on-week.
  • Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $17b on Thursday versus $23b on Wednesday and $20.1b the previous Thursday.
  • The 10-DMA stands at $18.9b.
  • The VIX widened 5.98 or 36.26% to 22.47 at yesterday’s close vs. last Friday’s 16.49.
  • Week-on-week, BAML’s IG Master Index widened 5 bps to +104 vs. +99.  
  • Spreads across the four IG asset classes widened 4.75 bp week-on-week to 12.75 bps vs. 8.00 bps as measured against its cumulative post-Crisis low.
  • Spreads across the 19 major IG industry sectors gapped out 4.73 bps to an average 13.68 bps vs. 8.95 bps as measured against their average cumulative post-Crisis lows!
  • For the week ended February 28th, Lipper U.S. Fund Flows reported a net inflow of $1.372b into Corporate Investment Grade Funds (2018 YTD net inflow of $20.632b) and a net outflow of $702.879m from High Yield Funds (2018 YTD net outflow of $13.202b).
  • Taking a look at the secondary trading performance of this week’s 48 IG Corporate and 5 SSA new issues, of the 53 deals that printed, 11 tightened versus NIP for a 20.75% improvement rate, 33 widened  (62.25%), 9 were flat (17.00%).  

 

Entering today’s Friday session here’s how much we issued this week:

  • IG Corps: $36.85b
  • All-in IG (Corps + SSA): $43.10b

And now it’s time for today’s question “what are your thoughts and numbers for MARCH and next week’s IG Corporate new issue volume?”
Thank you in advance for your time and contribution!


Please know that on each and every new issue, the guy-in-the-corner is ALWAYS be in YOUR corner on deal day! If an issuer asks you who some of the best diversity firms are, my hope is that you’ll mention Mischler Financial and the guy-in-the-corner.  Our distribution is high quality, prolific and consistent. On deal day, we perform enough to influence your bid-to-cover rates with REAL high quality and unpadded “sticky” account orders.    

Have a great weekend!

Ron Quigley, Managing Director, Head of Fixed Income Syndicate

The “Best and the Brightest” in Their Own Words

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Municipal Bonds “A Powerful New Appeal” – New Issue Schedule Week 022618
February 2018      Muni Market   

Municipal Bonds: New Federal Tax Laws Give Muni Bonds “A New Appeal”;  This Week’s New Issue Schedule   Mischler Muni Market Update looks back to last week’s metrics and provides a lens on municipal bond new issues scheduled for this week.  As always, the Mischler Muni Market Outlook provides public finance investment managers, institutional investors focused on municipal debt and muni bond market participants with a summary of the prior week’s municipal bond market activity, including credit spreads and money flows, and a look at pending municipal finance offerings tentatively scheduled for this week’s issuance.

Last week muni volume was about $5.3 billion. This week volume is expected to be about $4.8 billion. The negotiated market is led by $650.0 million for The Black Belt Energy Gas District, Alabama. The competitive market is led by $837.0 million general obligations for Baltimore County, Maryland, $346.0 million bonds in 2 bids on Wednesday and $491.0 million BAN’s in 2 bids on Thursday.

This past Sunday edition of the New York Times published an interesting snapshot re “new appeal” provided by municipal bonds consequent to the recently-passed federal tax legislation. While ‘academic’ for the universe of municipal debt analysts and professional muni fund managers, the narrative is topical and could be insightful to those who don’t subscribe to the publication. The piece written by NYT reporter Carla Fried is via this link

Below and attached is neither a recommendation or offer to purchase or sell securities. Mischler Financial Group is not a Municipal Advisor. For additional information, please contact Managing Director Richard Tilghman at 203.276.6656

For reading ease, please click on image below

municipal-bond-new-issuance-scheduled-022618

During the past two years alone, minority broker-dealer Mischler Financial Group Inc.’s  presence across the primary Primary Debt Capital Markets (DCM) space has included underwriting roles in which Mischler has led, co-managed and/or served as selling group member for more than $600 Billion (notional value) in new debt and preferred shares issued by Fortune corporations, as well as debt issued by various municipalities and US Government agencies.

Mischler Financial Group is the securities industry’s oldest minority broker-dealer owned and operated by Service-Disabled Veterans. Mischler is also a federally-certified Service-Disabled Veteran-Owned Business Enterprise (SDVOBE).  Mischler Muni Market updates and Municipal Debt New Issuance outlooks are provided as a courtesy to institutional clients of Mischler Financial Group, Inc. (more…)

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