Quigley’s Corner 12.13.18– A Healthy Placement for UNH $3b 4-Part
Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap – Third Time’s a Charm! UNH Pulls Trigger After Standing Down Monday and Tuesday
Today’s IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points
Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and December
The “QC” Geopolitical Risk Monitor
NICs, Bid-to-Covers, Tenors, Sizes and Average Spread Compression from IPTs thru Launches
Indexes and New Issue Volume
New Issues Priced
Global Market Recap
2018 Lipper Report/Fund Flows – Week ending December 5th
IG Credit Spreads by Rating
IG Credit Spreads by Industry
Investment Grade New Issue Pipeline
Economic Data Releases
Rates Trading Lab
Tomorrow’s Calendar
Investment Grade New Issue Re-Cap – UNH Pulls Trigger After Standing Down
Today the IG dollar DCM hosted UnitedHealth Group Inc. (NYSE:UNH) $3b 4-part long 5s/7s/10s/30s Senior Unsecured Notes new issue. The SSA space was absent again. UNH was the issuer who had looked in each of the last two sessions but ultimately decided to stand down until today. Two of the most defensive sectors of the 19 major IG sectors are Utilities and Healthcare. So, it’s no surprise that we’ve heard from Eversource Energy and UNH thus far this week, along with one taxable muni from Mercy Health. We also hosted Suncorp-Metway Limited’s $100mm of 18-month Unsecured FRNs that began its roadshow way back on October 1st bringing the all-in IG day totals to 2 issuers, 5 tranches and $3.1b. The SSA space was absent again. December 2018 is still best characterized as slim pickens. FNMA passed on their benchmark issuance window today and Swedish Export Credit did announce an IG-rated dollar deal – but it was REGS/Bearer format, so not countable.
The pre-market open pointed to concern over China’s retaliatory questioning of two Canadian’s in response to the Vancouver house arrest of Huawei’s CFO. Although China did announce later yesterday that it would purchase 1.13mm metric tons of U.S. soybeans, the news was tempered this morning by President Trump’s insistence that China do more to help resolve the trade war. EU QE has wound down its asset-purchase program and expressed concern over future growth prospects while keeping rates unchanged and highlighting new current downside risks in the Union. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims missed forecasts by 20k or 206k vs. 226k.
Now let’s review the weekly and monthly primary market numbers:
- The IG Corporate WTD total is 191.29% of this week’s syndicate midpoint average forecast or $4.304b vs. $2.25b.
- MTD we’ve priced 27.17% of the syndicate forecast for December IG Corporate new issuance or $8.604b vs. $31.67b.
- There are now 25 issuers in the IG credit pipeline.
Today’s IG Primary & Secondary Market Talking Points
- The average spread compression from IPTs and/or guidance thru the launch/final pricing of today’s 4 IG Corporate-only new issues was <21.25> bps.
- BAML’s IG Master Index tightened 1 bps to +150 vs. +151. (It’s post-Crisis low is +90 set on 2/01).
- Bloomberg/Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS tightened 2 bps to 1.42 vs. 1.44. (1.45 represents the high on 12/06; 0.85 is the post-Crisis low set on 1/30).
- Standard & Poor’s Investment Grade Composite Spread was unchanged at +179. (+125 represents its post-Crisis low set 2/02).
- Investment grade corporate bond trading posted a final Trace count of $25b on Wednesday versus $25b on Tuesday. The previous Wednesday markets were closed in honor of George H.W. Bush.
- The 10-DMA stands at $22.7b.
Syndicate IG Corporate-only Volume Estimates for This Week and December
| IG Corporate New Issuance | This Week
12/10-12/14 |
vs. Current WTD – $4.304b |
December 2018 |
vs. Current MTD – $8.604b |
| High-End Avg. | $3.70b | 116.32% | $30.56b | 28.15% |
| Midpoint Avg. | $2.25b | 191.29% | $31.67b | 27.17% |
| Low-End Avg. | $900mm | 478.22% | $32.78b | 26.25% |
| The High | $10b | 43.04% | $45b | 19.12% |
| The Low | $0b | N/A | $25b | 34.42% |
Below please find a synopsis of everything Syndicate & Secondary as seen from the perch of Mischler’s primary DCM desk.Have a great evening!
Ron Quigley, Managing Director & Head of IG Fixed Income Syndicate
Above is the opening extract from Quigley’s Corner aka “QC” Thursday, December 13, 2018 edition distributed via email to institutional investment managers and Fortune Treasury clients of Mischler Financial Group, the investment industry’s oldest minority broker-dealer owned and operated by Service-Disabled Veterans.
Cited by Wall Street Letter in each of 2014, 2015 and 2016 for “Best Research / Broker-Dealer”, the QC is one of three distinctive market comment pieces produced by Mischler Financial Group. The QC is a daily synopsis of everything Syndicate and Secondary as seen from the perch of our primary debt capital markets desk and includes a comprehensive “deep dive” with optics on the day’s investment grade corporate debt new issuance and secondary market data encompassing among other items, comparables, investment grade credit spreads, new issue activity, secondary market most active issues, and upcoming pipeline. To receive Quigley’s Corner, please email: rquigley@mischlerfinancial.com or via phone 203.276.6646
*Sources: Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, Bloomberg, Bond Radar, Dow Jones Newswire, IFR, Informa Global Markets, Internal Mischler, LCDNews, Market News International, Prospect News, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services* (*public domain information), Stone & McCarthy Research, Thomson Reuters and of course, a career of sources, contacts, movers and shakers from syndicate desks to accounts; from issuers to originators; from academicians to heads of research, and a host of financial journalists, et al.
